Sustained Pace Question

[pmd62ndst]

Diving into the world of pace here and I've got a question hopefully someone can answer.

Been working on Sustained Pace which, in theory, is supposed to define a horse's finishing ability. The calculations in the book don't make sense to me.

Been reading Modern Pace Handicapping and Sustained Pace (SP) is defined as (Early Pace (2nd Call) + 3rd Fraction)/2.

For Routes, isn't this the same as Average Pace? For Sprints, isn't there too much weight on the turn?

If it was up to me, I would base SP on the 3rd fraction in Routes and (2nd Fraction + 3rd Fraction)/2 in Sprints.

Am I totally missing the picture here?

Also, the book assumes that you only have the three fractions that DRF gives you to work with. I have all the fractions from result files so is there a better method for pace when more fractions are available?

PMD

[cj]

My Sartin is sure to be rusty, but I think Average Pace for a route is (EP + SP) / 2, while SP is (EP + 3F) / 2.

Also, if you try to get a good SP rating without considering the Early fractions as a major factor, you will get some wild, unreliable ratings.

[Dick Schmidt]

PMD,

Couple of thoughts:

When Tom wrote MPH, the Form was the only source of info available to the general public, and thus all calculations were based on it.

If I remember correctly, Average Pace is EP+SP/2, and so not exactly the same as SP in either a route or sprint.

The turn has differing affects at different tracks. At Belmont the track is so huge and the turn so gradual, I doubt the horses much notice. At a long, narrow track, it may well play a big part. At Pomona, a 5/8ths bullring, the sprints were two turns, the routes either three or four. You damn betcha I paid attention to the turns there. This is why you keep models and profiles on a distance and track basis, to discover the idiosyncrasy's for each track.

If you think modern information can give you better insight, then by all means use them. It is never a trivial project to improve on Tom Brohamer, but he didn't have the data you now have access to when he wrote his book. Personally I doubt that you are going to get much "bang for your buck" doing this kind of research, but we all have to prove that to ourselves. I know I put a couple thousand hours into it before I gave up. I now use just EP and 3rd Fx numbers (TPR) and find them perfectly adequate. I think you'll find the key is not better numbers, but better record keeping.

Dick

Who gives a lot of unpopular advise.

[delayjf]

Echoing what Dick said, I to had some questions concerning the way Avg pace was calculated. specifically I felt that a more accurate calculation of Avg pace would be to correctly weight the differing velocities by their correct percentage of the race time.

IE. in a race won by a front runner in a final time of 1:10 with an opening 1/4 of 22.00. The openning time of 22.00 only represents 31.4 % of the entire race (time wise), not 33% (distance wise) as it is currently used in the calculation of Avg pace.

To make a long story short I asked several members on this board as well as Ken Massa at HTR, who has worked with Brohamer for years (and I assume Dick Schmidt as well, not sure)
His answer was succient; it just doesn't matter. The rankings stayed the same.

If you want to look at a study on late pace. check out the below

http://www.homebased2.com/km/library.htm

October of 01.

I think this will go a long way to answer your questions. Now, it has occured to me that based on his study which concluded that SP was not as effective at 1 mile races as with longer races, there maybe a way to re-configure SP for shorter routes, but that is only a theory. Hope this helps

[Dick Schmidt]

Delay,

"I think this will go a long way to answer your questions. Now, it has occurred to me that based on his study which concluded that SP was not as effective at 1 mile races as with longer races, there maybe a way to re-configure SP for shorter routes, but that is only a theory. Hope this helps."


A thought on the power of good profiling and modeling. If SP isn't as effective at 1 mile, then EP must be more effective. When you look at just two segments of any distance, either the winners have good early, good late or require a certain balance. Just gotta dig.

Dick


So who told you this was easy????????

[delayjf]

Dick,
I appreciate your advise.

As I reviewed Massa's study on late pace especially SP. it occured to me that perhaps the reason SP was not as effective at one mile vs 1 1/8 was that 1 mile SP ratings gave too much weight (1/2) to a smaller fraction of the mile race (final 1/4) compared to the same rating would to a 11/8 miles(3/8). That perhaps a rating along the lines of EP (1/2 mile) + LP (1/2 to finish) / 2.

I feel this "MIGHT" be a more effective ratings due to what I've heard many others say concerning how much "kick" a horse has at the end of a race. I'm guessing about 3/8 or 1/2 mile. Perhaps some of the other horsemen or women can expand on that.

But if I'm right, then it would make sense that one would need a rating that measures this "kick". Problem, how do you translate 1mile SP to 11/8 SP using to different formulas for each. Assuming of course, my theory is correct.

[JustMissed]

I don't know if this will help you but I use a formula to calculate if my off pace horse will pass the horse on the lead and, if so, where in the stretch. The formula must consider the different distances from the 2nd call to the wire as follows:

6f=1320 ft
6.5f=1650
7f=1980
1m=1320
1 1/16=1650
1 1/8=1980
etc.

Even though I use TSN pace figs(where the varying distances are supposed to be 'baked in the bread') to calculate projected LP, I still have to consider the various race distances(2nd call to wire) in order to get my formula to work.

I'm not the brightest bulb on the tree, but maybe this will help.

JustMissed
:)

[Cratos]

My take on the pace of a race is different from the Tom Brohamer’s concept. Also it amazes me that anyone would follow Brohamer’s concept. But Jim Jones had his followers.

When I calculate average pace I simply divide the distance of the race by the time the horse ran the distance in. However to do this, I convert the distance (the numerator) into feet and the time (the denominator) into fifths per second.

Therefore calculation for the average pace of a race is a rate in feet per one-fifth second. For example, Medaglia d’Oro won the Donn Handicap which was run at the distance of 1 1/8 miles in 1:47.68. If I wanted to know his average pace the calculation would be:

Average Pace = 5940/538.40 = 11.03269 feet per one-fifth second

My next calculation is what I call “Incremental Pace.” This calculation allows me to take a look at how Medaglia d’Oro’s final time evolved. I break the race down by the points of call and make a calculation similar to that of the final time calculation except by distance increments of the race. In the Donn it was

1/4m
11.31590
1/2m
11.00459
3/4m
11.04141
1m
10.83299
Last 1/8m
10.92715

Although Medaglia d’Oro won the Donn comfortably by 4 ¾ lengths, it can be seen that if he had won by a nose, he couldn’t have run any increment slower than .002 second or he would have lost. A major benefit of incremental pace analysis is that it allows you to understand the margin of victory with respect to pace.

Also there is much more that I do with my pace calculations because most of them are not as forthright as the Donn. I compare the winner’s pace to the leader’s pace and I compare a horse that made a good move to finish maybe 4th or 5th to see whether he might have been positioned wrong by his jockey or the pace was just too fast. All of this can be done very quickly and very easy using a spreadsheet.

[delayjf]

Cratos,

Obviously you've given this some thought as well. Nice to know I'm not alone in my obsession.

I had considered calculating Avg pace in the same manner as you, but concluded (perhaps wrongly) that deviding total distance by total time would give you a final time rating without regard to what the pace may or may not have been. By that I mean there is no way to discern whether the early fractions were fast or slow. As far as that calculation was concerned, all the fractions may have been run in the same time. I think that's the point of Sartin Avg pace, to take into account a fast fraction. Not to say what your doing is wrong, but Brohamers way has its merits as well.

As I posted earlier, I've talked to several former teaching members of Pirco. Dick Schmidt, who posts here, was one of them. He along with Ken Massa have been slicing and dicing race fractions a lot longer than I have. Massa actually admitted that Avg pace has a problem with the way it is segmented, but calculating Avg pace my way did not change the ratings one bit, so what was the point.

But that shouldn't stop us from trying. You have presented some Interesting concepts.

[Cratos]

Hi delayjf,

What I see wrong and I should explain is that I haven’t given my definition of pace. Pace of the race is the time of the race increments. Average (sustain) pace of a race is the equal distribution of incremental distance over a given time metric. Also the incremental pace of a race can be determined by the performance of several horses in a given race, but the average pace of a race is always determined by the winner's time.

There will some who might disagree with the above assertion because they will weigh pace by its time increments as a percentage of the race’s final time and then calculate an average. I say to those people that is just a difference without a distinction.

I have read Brohamer’s book and I found it to be weak on both the application and theory of statistical analysis. I don’t know of any publications by Dick Schmidt, who posts here or Ken Massa, but speaking of time doing this sort of thing, I go back to the days of hand calculators nearly 40 years ago.

[delayjf]

It would be helpful to me if you sight another example, I (or at least I think I do) understand your calculations from your first thread.

[alysheba88]

Where do you guys factor and distinguish pressure?

Ie; 45.3 in a three horse battle for the lead or 45.3 alone and loose?

[delayjf]

I would simply annotate that from my trip notes and attempt to determined if the horse tends to "spit the bit" when challanged.
Other than to discount figures earned while loose on the lead, I have not clue how to numerically account for pressure.

[alysheba88]

Well thats pretty much my whole issue with much of the advanced pace analysis. It overlooks the most important factor, pressure.

Not saying there is no value in looking at the numbers just think people need to always remember the big picture.