Bergman columm

[pandy]

Some of you may find this column on a particular trainer at Yonkers interesting.

http://www.drf.com/news/bergman-trainer-brandon-todd-remains-mystery

[wilderness]

Hey Bob,
Jay Bergman has been involved in harness racing for quite a long while, all many different capacities.
Sensationalism doesn't fit him very well.

Although portions of his inquires are justified and arouse suspicion, other points of his focus attempt to arouse FALSE suspicions.

Owner changes are made very frequently in harness racing EX:
1) It's long been a practice in Delaware for ownership changes in order for a horse to fit-into the "Delaware-Owned" races.
2) Many owners, rather than pay daily training fees, enter into a commitment, where the trainer is listed as part-owner while the horse is in same-trainers barn. Once the trainer-owner relationship is dissolved the owners name generally revert back to the original owner (another change for false focus).
3) There's long been a practice to ship horses across the country and list a trainer as the "currently active trainer" for stakes races, when that same current-trainer has done little more in the prepping department than unload the horse off a truck or trailer. (the names that participate in these practices are too many to list).
4) partnerships are even dissolved and one owner might buy back the same horse they were formerly a partner in.

In summary, there a many valid reasons for owner and/or trainer changes and they explanations are NOT going to painted on billboard's, or even in Mr. Bergman's column, or anywhere else.

[pandy]

I understand what you're saying but in this case, Lightning Lane Stables stables in particular have a pretty bad reputation and history with various different trainers who have been suspended. And the use of "beards" at Yonkers is out of control, in my opinion.

[wilderness]

Bob,
These things been going on for over a century.

Even decades ago there were occasional changes published in the trade rags, however the majority were simply "not mentioned".

All the ranting in the world is not going to change those practices.

Furthermore, the practice is NOT restricted to Standardbreds and/or harness racing.

[pandy]

Bob,
These things been going on for over a century.

Even decades ago there were occasional changes published in the trade rags, however the majority were simply "not mentioned".

All the ranting in the world is not going to change those practices.

Furthermore, the practice is NOT restricted to Standardbreds and/or harness racing.

These trainers that are mentioned are banned from the Meadowlands, Don, so something is being done. I agree that these things go on with thoroughbreds too. As someone who writes about horse racing, I think it's better to bring this type of thing out in the open. The bettors know what's going on, that's one of the reasons why the Meadowlands handle is way up this year.

[Ray2000]

There are a lot of reasons to suspect thievery with Pena, Garcia-Herrera and Todd but statistically Todd is safe for now.

If the top 10 trainers at Yonkers with 100 or more starts in the past year win at an average clip of 21.3% then doing 35% on 300+ starts is 'out of this world' improbable... (5 in 10,000 chance by Chi square testing)

But Todd's 32% hit rate (20 wins on only 63 starts) is not statistically significant.
The same insignificance applies to Gregory, Smedshammer and Takter.


Name Starts Wins W%
Gregory, Cad 72 23 32
Smedshammer, T 62 23 37
Takter, Jimmy 37 16 43


Banca, Richard 265 72 27
Coleman, Casie 269 71 26
Allard, Rene 239 61 26
Fraley, Paul 565 118 21
Burke, Ronald 648 132 20
Mc Dermott, K 131 26 20
Miller, Julie 126 25 20
Drolet, Marthe 221 39 18
Cassar, Darran 181 32 18
Buter, Amber 337 58 17
ave 2982 634 21.3


Garcia-H 342 122 36
Todd, Brandon 63 20 32
Pena, Luis 145 43 30

[wilderness]

The same insignificance applies to Gregory, Smedshammer and Takter.

Some of the biggest beards (NOT) in the game ;)

Thanks Ray.

[wilderness]

The bettors know what's going on, that's one of the reasons why the Meadowlands handle is way up this year.

Bob,
I don't deny that the Gural Team is doing a superb job at The New Meadowlands, and they are worthy of every praise possible.

On the other hand, there's a lot "smoke being blown".
1) to appease the investment group
2) to hype the industry

And there's NOT anything wrong with either motive.

Last year The New Meadowlands had a less than stellar debut, the results it sure wasn't what the Team had hoped for, thus in the off-season some administrational changes were made.

As far as the wagering gains (stand alone), The Team has limited stats for previous year (s) comparison.
It's unlikely that the NJSEA left past decades statistics on the premises or with the data machines (I could be mistaken), in fact the possibility is quite likely due to services that were interrupted from the management change NJSEA-The New Meadowlands.

I posted something similar to the following in another forum and somebody insinuated that I was pulling random numbers out of the sky (at one needs to do is go back in the USTA Trotting and Pacing Guides gathering old dollar stats and then use a CPI-model-that-is-relative-to-harness racing, rather than the general consumer CPI):

Simulcasting in the past twenty-five years has drastically changed the distribution of take-out. The remote-track gets the majority of the dollars, while the host track gets less than a third (not including the fees for the host signal, which were immediately raised by The New Meadowlands (see old thread in this forum) when The New Meadowlands Team was in place).

In order for The New Meadowlands to have a substantial impact in their longevity (based upon current methods of simulcast take-out), they'd need to increase their handle at least ten-fold and compare their stats to the late-70s or 1980s.
Unfortunately a ten-fold increase in handle is something the market won't share. The consumers are simply non-existent.

Personally, I hope The New Meadownds is able to overcome all the odds and thrive as a mecca, making the investors wealthy (patriarch investors have supported harness racing since the beginning of time, in most instances never resulting in financial gain for their support and dedication), which will assure the long term survival of all of harness racing in North America.

[pandy]

Gural has said that even though the handle is way up, it's still not an easy road to long term profitability. With Pocono and Harrah's opening, it's going to be tougher. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by ten fold. If they're doing over 3 million a night on average, which is the best in the industry, are you saying that they need to handle 30 million a night? If that is the case, then won't all racetracks go out of business?

[wilderness]

If they're doing over 3 million a night on average, which is the best in the industry, are you saying that they need to handle 30 million a night?

Correct.

[wilderness]

If that is the case, then won't all racetracks go out of business?

Where you been Bob?

Have you been to the overnights at any track in the country in the past 25 years?

They've literally gone out of business.

The only thing that has allowed the rejuvenation of racing itself (NOT the consumer and/or market share) is the implementation of VLT's.

Simulcasting was the previous bolt of lightning from the gods and, it was in the downward trend before it was even implemented in all states/provinces.
Today's method of distribution to take-out via same is a travesty and is detrimental to the survival of the smaller markets.

[pandy]

I guess I should do a column on just how much money a racetrack has to take in to be profitable in today's market.

[Robert Goren]

Things that were overlooked for years because horse racing was going good. Now that horse racing is in trouble, these things matter.

[wilderness]

I guess I should do a column on just how much money a racetrack has to take in to be profitable in today's market.

Bob,
One only needs to look at any Corporation P&L's and incentives paid to other markets for comparison to realize what a small presence harness racing (or all of Horse Racing) offers.

The difference between eking out a small gain and assuring the longevity of the industry are two entirely different scenarios,

There are less and less benefactors that are willing to invest/contribute their dollars into the "missionary future" of the sport because the outlook looks so dismal, and furthermore, 99.99% of the general public are unable see past the end of their nose (or the odds-board) as to what kind of commitment is actually required to sustain the future of the industry.
These same investors realize that VLT's and their long-term future is almost as viable as "pig bellies".

[wilderness]

Things that were overlooked for years because horse racing was going good. Now that horse racing is in trouble, these things matter.

Robert,
For more than a century, entries and results were flooded in the daily newspapers for FREE!

One only needs to ponder how much that quantity of advertising would cost in today's market?
Furthermore, one needs to vomit when comparing the support and gratitude the many racetracks "returned" for that same FREE advertising to the newspapers and their staff's.

[baconswitchfarm]

I guess I should do a column on just how much money a racetrack has to take in to be profitable in today's market.

That was the whole argument I was making last week. If you point out the facts , people scream you are negative or hate Gural. Because this is what I do for a living, I know the kind of numbers it would take. To get to Meadowlands caliber purses the number would be astronomical. I don't know if it is 30million , but it is closer to 15million than 3.

[CHeCK EyE]

That was the whole argument I was making last week. If you point out the facts , people scream you are negative or hate Gural. Because this is what I do for a living, I know the kind of numbers it would take. To get to Meadowlands caliber purses the number would be astronomical. I don't know if it is 30million , but it is closer to 15million than 3.

There's no doubt about it the handle would need to be much MUCH larger to support purses that would be more in line with the neighboring racinos. I don't think any body that has knowledge of the sport would disagree. But you gotta start somewhere. No it's not all ice cream and rose pedals, but the 20%+ handle increases from last year is certainly a good start and something to be happy to see. It might be the type of thing, and this is probably a long shot but who knows, where Christie has been saying 'hell no' to a casino at M1, yes because of AC, but also in part because the racing there has been on such a decline in recent years. Maybe the positive swing can persuade him a touch to think, hey this really can work and a casino there is making more and more sense.

[wilderness]

This certainly on-topic for this thread.
Open letter from Jeff Gural (http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/article.aspx?articleid=52630&zoneid=63)

"Last weekend we had 25 fewer horses racing over the weekend and as a result our handle declined by $508,000.'
end of quote

$15240 to 25400 less on the take-out from the Meadowlands end.

Is "the weekend" Fri & Sat or Thur-Fri-Sat ?

In summary this is a missionary attempt to stop the bleeding for the remainder of the season, which has 4+ months remaining.