View Full Version : Fort Larned.Man Gone Wild!
CincyHorseplayer
03-10-2013, 11:34 AM
Out of all the BC winners to return that looked like classic bet againsts just because of normal failure rate,this guy runs wild and destroys the field,riderless!Looking at the race replay he was absolutely nuts!He probably ran a 21 quarter.I'm a Fort Larned fan,but this run puts my fandom into alltime status.I love runoff horses!
http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-discreet-dancer-wins-handicap-fort-larned-loses-rider-start
Robert Fischer
03-10-2013, 12:35 PM
Wilkes may opt to go riderless next time, with a 120lb saddle cloth.
CincyHorseplayer
03-10-2013, 01:04 PM
Robert what do you think the speed figure on Fort Larned should be?He had to run at least a 110.He was nearly a 16th of a mile in front of the field!This is the best combination of insanity and raw talent I have ever seen.Every time I watch it it cracks me up to no end!
Stillriledup
03-10-2013, 01:16 PM
I guess the 64 dollar question remains this. If Cornelio V wasnt 4 Lbs "over" yesterday riding Bill Parcells' The Big Deluxe in Yesterday's 7th at Big A, would he have gotten 3rd to secure a winning trifecta for me? Makes you wonder!
Whenever i see a loose horse like this and they run 20 or 30 lengths faster than they would have run with 120 LBS, it just re-emphasizes how important weight is. Give me the 5 or 7 LB bug with 'live' hands everytime!
CincyHorseplayer
03-10-2013, 01:39 PM
I guess the 64 dollar question remains this. If Cornelio V wasnt 4 Lbs "over" yesterday riding Bill Parcells' The Big Deluxe in Yesterday's 7th at Big A, would he have gotten 3rd to secure a winning trifecta for me? Makes you wonder!
Whenever i see a loose horse like this and they run 20 or 30 lengths faster than they would have run with 120 LBS, it just re-emphasizes how important weight is. Give me the 5 or 7 LB bug with 'live' hands everytime!
I've gotten 2 betbacks on runoff returnees,how about you?
I guess the 64 dollar question remains this. If Cornelio V wasnt 4 Lbs "over" yesterday riding Bill Parcells' The Big Deluxe in Yesterday's 7th at Big A, would he have gotten 3rd to secure a winning trifecta for me? Makes you wonder!
Whenever i see a loose horse like this and they run 20 or 30 lengths faster than they would have run with 120 LBS, it just re-emphasizes how important weight is. Give me the 5 or 7 LB bug with 'live' hands everytime!
Of course 120 pounds is significant. 3 or 4? I wouldn't bet on it.
Stillriledup
03-10-2013, 01:43 PM
Of course 120 pounds is significant. 3 or 4? I wouldn't bet on it.
But if you lose by 1/100th of an inch?
But if you lose by 1/100th of an inch?
Could have been a lot of things that cause a horse to lose 1/100th of an inch. You blow a lot more bets worrying about weight than you will cash, in my opinion.
CincyHorseplayer
03-10-2013, 02:13 PM
Could have been a lot of things that cause a horse to lose 1/100th of an inch. You blow a lot more bets worrying about weight than you will cash, in my opinion.
CJ where are you putting that outrun figure at?It has to be up there.
CJ where are you putting that outrun figure at?It has to be up there.
I wouldn't make a figure for a riderless horse.
CincyHorseplayer
03-10-2013, 02:34 PM
I wouldn't make a figure for a riderless horse.
I know.You couldn't guess just for fun's sake?
I'd have to know how far he actually finished in front of the winner, and adjust for weight, but sure, I'll try.
VeryOldMan
03-10-2013, 03:46 PM
Question for those more knowledgeable about this - is the timing of the race correctly based on the horses that had riders, or was FL triggering the timing fractions? If the former, what was his time for that mile?!
The loose horse's time is ignored.
VeryOldMan
03-10-2013, 04:55 PM
The loose horse's time is ignored.
Then he covered that mile in 1:32 and change or something, right?
Paging Dr. Fager. Dr. Fager. (Yeah I know - 134 pounds :))
Then he covered that mile in 1:32 and change or something, right?
Paging Dr. Fager. Dr. Fager. (Yeah I know - 134 pounds :))
How do you know? How far in front was he?
VeryOldMan
03-10-2013, 06:23 PM
How do you know? How far in front was he?
Watched the replay and may have counted too fast, but could swear FL crossed the finish line 3 seconds (maybe +) ahead of the field. They showed him crossing the finish line.
I'll check it out when I have some time. It probably doesn't matter that much considering he carried no weight, but still interesting. I found it hilarious they were saying how they hope he wasn't injured. He sure didn't look injured!
Nikki1997
03-10-2013, 06:47 PM
Read where FL finished approximately 1/16th ahead of the field. He blew past the others so fast, it was amazing.
Love this picture:
http://www.thoroughbredchampions.com/showthread.php/16202-Gulfstream-Park-Handicap-(Grade-II)-03-09-13/page2 Will probably have to cut and paste link.
VeryOldMan
03-10-2013, 06:54 PM
Let's try this:
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/540918_10151404695787530_1567863503_n.jpg
VeryOldMan
03-10-2013, 07:04 PM
Per Twitter:
@andyserling: 102 Beyer for Discreet Dancer in the GP Handicap, Unofficial 137 for the riderless Fort Larned.
PhantomOnTour
03-10-2013, 07:41 PM
Did he switch leads?
How was the gallop out?
:)
i wonder if he naturally headed back to the winners circle...expecting to pick up Hernandez and pose for the picture man
Nikki1997
03-10-2013, 07:46 PM
Let's try this:
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/540918_10151404695787530_1567863503_n.jpg
Thank you. Much better.
nijinski
03-10-2013, 08:51 PM
I don't know, with his ears pricked back like that .He has the the look of agression , or was he scared , he never did this alone .
JustRalph
03-10-2013, 09:00 PM
Wow! I just noticed Ft Larned is wearing the same tube socks I wore in 7th grade
He's moving like a tremendous machine.
foregoforever
03-10-2013, 09:19 PM
How about a riderless horse "winning" from mid-pack with a stalking trip?
UN2bG90Qxdc
iceknight
03-10-2013, 09:39 PM
Wow! moving like a programmed machine!
Robert Fischer
03-10-2013, 09:51 PM
How about a riderless horse "winning" from mid-pack with a stalking trip?
UN2bG90Qxdc
He ran a smarter race than most of the jocks, but he may have cost Abreeze the race.
Loosehorse
03-10-2013, 10:52 PM
I am a member of Pace Advantage, and I took that photo.
Former Prodigy member, I remember Mike, Andy, Vinny, Brad, Beaver..etc.
classhandicapper
03-11-2013, 12:16 PM
Per Twitter:
@andyserling: 102 Beyer for Discreet Dancer in the GP Handicap, Unofficial 137 for the riderless Fort Larned.
That's pretty funny.
Nikki1997
03-11-2013, 01:50 PM
TRAKUS provides some data on Fort Larned's "race":
http://www.followhorseracing.com/en/the-latest/blogs/2013/03/11/so-how-fast-did-fort-larned-run/
On Beyer, he won by 8.5 which is 17 points at a mile. So, his Beyer would be around 119 since the winner got a 102.
JustRalph
03-11-2013, 07:14 PM
Those middle numbers are incredible. Very interesting. That 4.98 right after thse barely 5's is something.
Interesting, but probably useless. Amazing he didn't hurt himself
Robert Fischer
03-11-2013, 07:17 PM
On Beyer, he won by 8.5 which is 17 points at a mile. So, his Beyer would be around 119 since the winner got a 102.
for fun , thats **125lbs = 17beyer points
so 1lbs = 0.136 beyer points
or roughly 1/8* of a beyer point or 8lbs = 1 beyer point
again, not taking this too seriously.
*rounded down for the fraction because Fort Larned likely would win the race.
** anyone who knows the actual weight of the jockey Brian Hernandez(115?) could also use that weight figure - as extra saddle weight probably stayed aboard for the trip. - For 115lbs = 1/7 or 7lbs = 1 beyer point.
thespaah
03-11-2013, 10:46 PM
I'd have to know how far he actually finished in front of the winner, and adjust for weight, but sure, I'll try.
Can ya use this?
http://www.followhorseracing.com/en/the-latest/blogs/2013/03/11/so-how-fast-did-fort-larned-run/.
Without going into a lot of formulas and "eyes glaze over in 30 seconds" stuff, here's my take on weight as it applies to thoroughbred horses.
To keep it simple, let's say the rider and tack weighs 120 lbs. The horse weights 10 times that. break that down to a couple of pounds on the horses back. I really do not think the average race horse can 'feel' a 2 or 3 lb difference. There are those who swear up and down that a small break in the weights will steer their handicapping selection. I never put much stock into the weight issue unless we go back to the days when racing secretaries could put real weight( 130 lbs+) on handicap horses and place 10lbs or more on one horse than the next highest weight. I never though a a pound or three mattered all that much to a horse. 10lbs or more, sure.
BTW, I think Fort Larned was what 3/5 or 4/5...Based on the video and his past races, Fort Larned would have shown his heels to this field WITH the rider.
Stillriledup
03-12-2013, 01:38 AM
Can ya use this?
http://www.followhorseracing.com/en/the-latest/blogs/2013/03/11/so-how-fast-did-fort-larned-run/.
Without going into a lot of formulas and "eyes glaze over in 30 seconds" stuff, here's my take on weight as it applies to thoroughbred horses.
To keep it simple, let's say the rider and tack weighs 120 lbs. The horse weights 10 times that. break that down to a couple of pounds on the horses back. I really do not think the average race horse can 'feel' a 2 or 3 lb difference. There are those who swear up and down that a small break in the weights will steer their handicapping selection. I never put much stock into the weight issue unless we go back to the days when racing secretaries could put real weight( 130 lbs+) on handicap horses and place 10lbs or more on one horse than the next highest weight. I never though a a pound or three mattered all that much to a horse. 10lbs or more, sure.
BTW, I think Fort Larned was what 3/5 or 4/5...Based on the video and his past races, Fort Larned would have shown his heels to this field WITH the rider.
What's the old saying, weight can stop a freight train?
I think that even if the horse can't 'feel' 2 lbs, its still there and since many of these races are decided by 1/100th of an inch, it just seems logical that 2 lbs would and could cost a horse a board spot in a certain situation.
The 64 dollar question is HOW much does it matter. How many inches or millimeters does a horse lose by 1 extra pound. It has to be something, even if its one billionth of a millimeter, but it is something.
If you lose a 10 minute photo and you're jock was 4 LBS over, wouldnt you be thinking "geez, did he really need that extra cheeseburger last night?"
for fun , thats **125lbs = 17beyer points
so 1lbs = 0.136 beyer points
or roughly 1/8* of a beyer point or 8lbs = 1 beyer point
again, not taking this too seriously.
*rounded down for the fraction because Fort Larned likely would win the race.
** anyone who knows the actual weight of the jockey Brian Hernandez(115?) could also use that weight figure - as extra saddle weight probably stayed aboard for the trip. - For 115lbs = 1/7 or 7lbs = 1 beyer point.
Beyer recommended that if you must adjust for weight, a pound is about .4 Beyer points.
johnhannibalsmith
03-12-2013, 11:27 AM
Weight is not created equal, at least that's what the horses tell me. Technically, I'm lighter than a lot of gallop boys. But, ask most horses and they'd rather have the heavier guy on their backs than have me and my clumsy awkwardness getting in their way up there. I think if you truly attempt to factor in subtle weight differences, you have to assume that all riders "carry their own weight" identically, and it seems with all the rider analysis around here, most would have some difficulty making that leap.
Weight is not created equal, at least that's what the horses tell me. Technically, I'm lighter than a lot of gallop boys. But, ask most horses and they'd rather have the heavier guy on their backs than have me and my clumsy awkwardness getting in their way up there. I think if you truly attempt to factor in subtle weight differences, you have to assume that all riders "carry their own weight" identically, and it seems with all the rider analysis around here, most would have some difficulty making that leap.
That is probably a stretch. Sure, some jockeys are better than others, but most of that involves tactics, not how they sit on a horse. I imagine there are a few so bad they make it tougher on the horse, but that would be a very small group.
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 12:22 PM
The effect of weight on time at one mile is about 7.6 kg/sec. Therefore, as a basis of comparison, Fort Larned's final time should be adjusted by +7.34 sec, i.e., from 133.89 to 141.23.
Robert Fischer
03-12-2013, 12:48 PM
Beyer recommended that if you must adjust for weight, a pound is about .4 Beyer points.
That sounds reasonable.
If we could do the 6f run of FL in that race(and this run-off is far from scientific), it would probably come to about 5lbs = 1 Beyer point.
So Beyer's estimate says 5lbs = 2 Beyer points.
probably not enough accuracy to really quibble over a pound or so.
Weight is pretty much negligible in the majority of races.
Robert Fischer
03-12-2013, 12:54 PM
The effect of weight on time at one mile is about 7.6 kg/sec. Therefore, as a basis of comparison, Fort Larned's final time should be adjusted by +7.34 sec, i.e., from 133.89 to 141.23.
That formula may be giving too much value to weight. The winner ran in 1:35.17.
Seems pretty much improbable that Fort Larned would run slower than 1:36 , given that he appeared healthy.
Many feel he would have competed with 1:35.17 or bettered it.
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 12:59 PM
That formula may be giving too much value to weight. The winner ran in 1:35.17.
Seems pretty much improbable that Fort Larned would run slower than 1:36 , given that he appeared healthy.
Many feel he would have competed with 1:35.17 or bettered it.
...or maybe that weight that he shed wasn't completely dead weight.
thespaah
03-12-2013, 02:40 PM
The effect of weight on time at one mile is about 7.6 kg/sec. Therefore, as a basis of comparison, Fort Larned's final time should be adjusted by +7.34 sec, i.e., from 133.89 to 141.23.
Just a minute...By use of your formula, Fort Larned's race time with rider on board would have been 1:41.23? IN other words SIX SECONDS behind the actual winner?
Something is wrong here.
I think you should go back and review your math.
thespaah
03-12-2013, 02:41 PM
What's the old saying, weight can stop a freight train?
I think that even if the horse can't 'feel' 2 lbs, its still there and since many of these races are decided by 1/100th of an inch, it just seems logical that 2 lbs would and could cost a horse a board spot in a certain situation.
The 64 dollar question is HOW much does it matter. How many inches or millimeters does a horse lose by 1 extra pound. It has to be something, even if its one billionth of a millimeter, but it is something.
If you lose a 10 minute photo and you're jock was 4 LBS over, wouldnt you be thinking "geez, did he really need that extra cheeseburger last night?"
That's a speculative question.
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 02:49 PM
Just a minute...By use of your formula, Fort Larned's race time with rider on board would have been 1:41.23? IN other words SIX SECONDS behind the actual winner?
Something is wrong here.
I think you should go back and review your math.
My math and physics are correct. Perhaps you should review your intuition.
VeryOldMan
03-12-2013, 04:44 PM
...or maybe that weight that he shed wasn't completely dead weight.
Yeah - this part is hard to separate. Running unguided with a 110 pound flour bag on his back (or whatever the weight should be of 120-tack and weights) versus running with a 110 pound jockey guiding him seems like a big difference, particularly when he's been trained to have a jockey guiding him.
He wasn't going to run a 1:41 with a jockey up, that's for sure! He was ready to RUN.
CincyHorseplayer
03-12-2013, 05:16 PM
Good stuff gang.The trackus stuff was really interesting to look at.I sure don't like to see this type of thing happen becuase it puts everybody around the start in danger,but I couldn't help but laugh out loud to see FL just absolutely smoking.Unreal.I'd say at worst he got a great prep race out of this!
VeryOldMan
03-12-2013, 05:44 PM
I couldn't help but laugh out loud to see FL just absolutely smoking.
Amen!
I managed to miss every bet for and against him last summer and fall, but I am now a permanent Fort Larned fan. If that effort didn't bring at least a smile to the face of a horse racing fan or player, they need to take a step back and re-evaluate.
The effect of weight on time at one mile is about 7.6 kg/sec. Therefore, as a basis of comparison, Fort Larned's final time should be adjusted by +7.34 sec, i.e., from 133.89 to 141.23.
That is obviously absurd. No way in real life adding a jockey would add that much time.
thespaah
03-12-2013, 07:28 PM
My math and physics are correct. Perhaps you should review your intuition.
Ok...Show your work..Lke my hard ass eight grade math teacher used to say..." I am not interested in answers. I want to see the work."
Your numbers defy logic. BY your calculations, Fort Larned would have had trouble beating a 10K claimer last Saturday.
thespaah
03-12-2013, 07:36 PM
That is obviously absurd. No way in real life adding a jockey would add that much time.
I'm not seeing it.
He said 7+ kg per second. 1 kg is 2.2 lbs 124 lbs is 56 kg or 8 seconds.
How he arrived at that figure is the mystery.
Breaking it down further. He claims 7 kg or a little over 15lbs would take a full second off the horse's time for one mile.
So, if put 15lbs of lead in Fort Larned's saddle pads, he's lose a second?
Not buying it.
VeryOldMan
03-12-2013, 07:40 PM
Ok...Show your work..Lke my hard ass eight grade math teacher used to say..." I am not interested in answers. I want to see the work."
Your numbers defy logic. BY your calculations, Fort Larned would have had trouble beating a 10K claimer last Saturday.
I think the guy's point is best viewed as a projection of FL's time with 110+ pounds of extra dead weight on his back. Running riderless and with no guidance. That's all. If Ludi thinks FL was going to run 1:41 with his jockey still aboard, then we are in COMPLETE agreement.
Robert Fischer
03-12-2013, 07:42 PM
The qualification of whether or not the weight was "dead weight" was added (post 45).
That completely threw me off, because the formula in post 42 that I replied to, did not mention that qualification.
Would be nice if ML would offer an explanation of how it works, as I can see how others like myself were drawn into the original statement that seems at face-value to be either an error or a formula that gives too much value to weight.
JustRalph
03-12-2013, 07:53 PM
Gotta love horseplayers. Analyze something into oblivion........ :lol:
VeryOldMan
03-12-2013, 07:55 PM
Would be nice if ML would offer an explanation of how it works, as I can see how others like myself were drawn into the original statement that seems at face-value to be either an error or a formula that gives too much value to weight.
Agreed about the explanation - I've offered a possible way to interpret the analysis (i.e., the time effect of adding dead weight to a riderless and unguided horse) but I'm not the one who put the particular ratio out there.
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 08:30 PM
Ok...Show your work..Lke my hard ass eight grade math teacher used to say..." I am not interested in answers. I want to see the work."
Your numbers defy logic. BY your calculations, Fort Larned would have had trouble beating a 10K claimer last Saturday. 1. How many seconds did he spend stumbling around at the start? 2. Fort Larned's 25-length lead was cut to 8.5 lengths at the finish by Discreet Dancer, the real star of this race.
anaerobic supply + aerobic supply = kinetic energy + aerodynamic drag + cost of transport
O/T(1-e^-T/E) + (M[1-P/T(1-e^-T/P)] = (1+w/W)RD/T + k(D/t)^3 + 2(1+w/W)(D/T)^2*1/T
where O = 2615.3 J/kg
E = 18.500 sec
M = 68.296 W/kg
P = 15.054 sec
R = 3.728 J/kg/m
k = .002273 Ws^3/kg-m^3
w = impost weight
W = horse weight
D = distance
T = time
Now you can do the easy part. Plug in the numbers, increase the weight, and calculate the increase in time. Apologies to the Luddites.
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 09:01 PM
Another way of looking at this is that Fort Larned expended about 3.831 megajoules of energy during the race which he ran in 1:33.89. If he had run the race with his 124-lb. jockey in 1:41.23, he would have expended about 4.075 megajoules of energy, a greater effort than his solo race.
Except you do not know what all of the variables are equal to. what did FL weigh?
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 09:08 PM
Except you do not know what all of the variables are equal to. what did FL weigh?
Excellent catch! In this market, since we don't know the horses' weights, I use an estimate of 500 kg.
anaerobic supply + aerobic supply = kinetic energy + aerodynamic drag + cost of transport
O/T(1-e^-T/E) + (M[1-P/T(1-e^-T/P)] = (1+w/W)RD/T + k(D/t)^3 + 2(1+w/W)(D/T)^2*1/T
where O = 2615.3 J/kg
E = 18.500 sec
M = 68.296 W/kg
P = 15.054 sec
R = 3.728 J/kg/m
k = .002273 Ws^3/kg-m^3
w = impost weight
W = horse weight
D = distance
T = time
Now you can do the easy part. Plug in the numbers, increase the weight, and calculate the increase in time. Apologies to the Luddites.
Completely non-applicable in this case. The results speak for themselves.
johnhannibalsmith
03-12-2013, 09:44 PM
Another way of looking at this is that Fort Larned expended about 3.831 megajoules of energy during the race which he ran in 1:33.89. If he had run the race with his 124-lb. jockey in 1:41.23, he would have expended about 4.075 megajoules of energy, a greater effort than his solo race.
No wonder I haven't picked more than three winners in the last three weeks. :lol:
JustRalph
03-12-2013, 09:49 PM
No wonder I haven't picked more than three winners in the last three weeks. :lol:
The pool has grown up!
And they're all scientists........
Magister Ludi
03-12-2013, 09:51 PM
No wonder I haven't picked more than three winners in the last three weeks. :lol:
Mr. Smith, the secret is that you have to expend at least five megajoules of energy handicapping each race.
johnhannibalsmith
03-12-2013, 09:55 PM
Mr. Smith, the secret is that you have to expend at least five megajoules of energy handicapping each race.
The way I'm going, I need a flux capacitor... is 1.21 gigawatts more or less than five megajoules? I really do need to go back to the future to cash... :lol:
Are you saying you handicapped your joules off??? :eek:
Valuist
03-14-2013, 10:44 PM
I was looking over Saturday's cards and there's a horse named Secure running in the 3rd at Hawthorne who dumped his rider at the break last out. I took a look at the replay and once again, another riderless horse with the 115 pound weight break finishes well in front.
What was a bit unusual was the horse moved into contention on the far turn, then waited for room, and went thru on the inside. You don't usually see riderless horses go to the inside of horses.
thespaah
03-14-2013, 11:46 PM
I was looking over Saturday's cards and there's a horse named Secure running in the 3rd at Hawthorne who dumped his rider at the break last out. I took a look at the replay and once again, another riderless horse with the 115 pound weight break finishes well in front.
What was a bit unusual was the horse moved into contention on the far turn, then waited for room, and went thru on the inside. You don't usually see riderless horses go to the inside of horses.
Now THAT is a well trained horse!
Valuist
03-15-2013, 09:44 AM
Now THAT is a well trained horse!
Absolutely. On the far turn, the horse was gaining ground on the inside strongly but was temporarily stuck behind the leaders, waited a bit, then when the hole opened again toward the inside, he accelerated.
We often hear the track announcers making a big deal that "Horse A is stuck behind a wall of horses", and the horse sees what is front of it, and slows itself up, and conserves energy in the process. And once the hole opens up, these horses often get the job done. Secure didn't need a rider to know that he had to wait.
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