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tonypp
03-08-2013, 04:06 PM
I asked myself would i pony up 35000 for a 10 to 1 shot or higher,i told the trainer your crazy i want the favorite. Here it goes if a horse was claimed at 10 to 1 odds or higher i bet him the next two times out.Couple things you need to watch for, big money claiming a well bred mare for breeding,someone getting bad advice.I have charted a year back on a couple of tracks and its a winning system.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 07:24 AM
I asked myself would i pony up 35000 for a 10 to 1 shot or higher,i told the trainer your crazy i want the favorite. Here it goes if a horse was claimed at 10 to 1 odds or higher i bet him the next two times out.Couple things you need to watch for, big money claiming a well bred mare for breeding,someone getting bad advice.I have charted a year back on a couple of tracks and its a winning system.


Although your factor looks logical I have to disagree. Testing I found out that it presents no betting value.

You can see my approach here:
http://alogatas.wordpress.com/2013/03/09/dont-rely-on-intuition-and-logic/

lamboguy
03-09-2013, 07:57 AM
[QUOTE=DeltaLover]Although your factor looks logical I have to disagree. Testing I found out that it presents no betting value.
great start to your website, its going to be a good one.

best of luck

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 07:59 AM
[QUOTE=DeltaLover]Although your factor looks logical I have to disagree. Testing I found out that it presents no betting value.
great start to your website, its going to be a good one.

best of luck

thanks

Robert Goren
03-09-2013, 09:13 AM
This another case that depends on the trainer, If Rudy claims the horse, then it has a chance, If some 5% trainer takes it, then it probably doesn't.

tonypp
03-09-2013, 06:49 PM
Is that study factoring the odds of the horse.Its showing a 12 percent strike that makes me believe thati ts a winning formula on the basis that must of the horses go off at 10 to 1 or higher.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 06:59 PM
I dont exactly undestand what you mean.

The comparison is clear:

Compare:

Horses who were claimed last time out while been over 10-1 (when claimed, not today)

Against

Horses who were claimed last time out while been less 10-1 (when claimed, not today)

Nothing else...

tonypp
03-09-2013, 07:03 PM
Are you factoring the post time odds in your study

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 07:10 PM
Are you factoring the post time odds in your study

I am using final odds

Robert Fischer
03-09-2013, 07:12 PM
Arion Silver is the most recent horse that i can think of anecdotally, that cashed with this angle.


http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=8845777&registry=T

tonypp
03-09-2013, 07:17 PM
plus your sample size for horses claimed at 10 to 1 or higher is to small to yield a conclusion

tonypp
03-09-2013, 07:27 PM
thats the perfect example,arion silver first time starter gets claimed 25000 at 15 to 1 okay breeding okay workouts,next time out he goes off at 15 to 1 and pays 31 to win.Its a winning angle so i get another 15 bets before i go into the red.Plus your study showing the next time out,my angle is betting two races before i jump ship.

Robert Fischer
03-09-2013, 07:44 PM
thats the perfect example,arion silver first time starter gets claimed 25000 at 15 to 1 okay breeding okay workouts,next time out he goes off at 15 to 1 and pays 31 to win.Its a winning angle so i get another 15 bets before i go into the red.Plus your study showing the next time out,my angle is betting two races before i jump ship.

Just mentioning an anecdotal example. Not supporting or opposing your angle.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 07:47 PM
plus your sample size for horses claimed at 10 to 1 or higher is to small to yield a conclusion

Actually the sample size is very reliable.

The rule of thump requires minumum expected frequency 5 as you can see here:

http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/software/dataplot/refman1/auxillar/chsqgood.htm

or here

http://www.talkstats.com/showthread.php/22609-Sample-Size-for-Chi-Square-test

or here

http://explorable.com/chi-square-test

In my example the min expected frequency is close to 39

If still in doubt please read any statistics book.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 07:49 PM
Just mentioning an anecdotal example. Not supporting or opposing your angle.

Rob,

This angle has exactly the same value as betting grey horses the second week after a full moon, it is completely random as can proven by data research

thaskalos
03-09-2013, 08:29 PM
Rob,

This angle has exactly the same value as betting grey horses the second week after a full moon, it is completely random as can proven by data research
DeltaLover...I have created an angle play of my own, which appears to show some promise at Charlestown, Penn National and Mountaineer.

My horse must be either the favorite or the second-favorite in the race -- while satisfying four additional requirements. It must start from one of the two outside post positions...it must show a last race where it was at least 4 lengths behind the winner at the finish...it must NOT sport one of the top three Beyer figures in either one of his last two races...and it must not be dropping in class today.

Would it be very difficult to run this system through a decent sized database?

And if the results it puts up are positive...could you please let me know by personal message? :)

tonypp
03-09-2013, 09:18 PM
i have just finished charting six meets,and the angle is up 138 units.

tonypp
03-09-2013, 09:26 PM
if you believe 39 races gives you a high enough frequency your talking apple and oranges.Actually the sample size is very reliable.

The rule of thump requires minumum expected frequency 5 as you can see here:

http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/software/dataplot/refman1/auxillar/chsqgood.htm

or here

http://www.talkstats.com/showthread.php/22609-Sample-Size-for-Chi-Square-test

or here

http://explorable.com/chi-square-test

In my example the min expected frequency is close to 39

If still in doubt please read any statistics book.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 10:05 PM
if you believe 39 races gives you a high enough frequency your talking apple and oranges.

Did you read the documentation?

tonypp
03-09-2013, 10:30 PM
if there was 28 winners out of 219 races,what was the total money won on a 2 dollar ticket on those 28 winners.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 10:35 PM
if there was 28 winners out of 219 races,what was the total money won on a 2 dollar ticket on those 28 winners.

Since the ROI was 0.86 (per $1) and the total investment was 219 this means that the total amount won was 219 * 0.86 ~ $188

For $2 tickets = $376

tonypp
03-09-2013, 11:14 PM
Since the ROI was 0.86 (per $1) and the total investment was 219 this means that the total amount won was 219 * 0.86 ~ $188

For $2 tickets = $376 so lets say there was a horse that was dq and was 50 to 1 odds does that make it a winning forumula,so you saying 39 races makes a high enough sample size a disagree.Come back to me with about 2000 races.

Jeff P
03-09-2013, 11:14 PM
I was curious what a larger sample might look like - so I ran it against my calendar year 2012 database. (The database itself contains every thoroughbred race at every North American track.)

I show 10,874 starters that raced during calendar year 2012 who were claimed out of their most recent start.

Here's what the results for that set of horses looks like:

UDM Definition: CLAIM_1BK
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Claimed: MinRaces= 1 MaxRaces= 1 MinDays= -999 MaxDays= 999
Running Style: ALL


query start: 3/9/2013 7:40:13 PM
query end: 3/9/2013 7:40:29 PM
elapsed time: 16 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pl_Claims.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 18149.70 18031.80 17480.80
Bet -21748.00 -21748.00 -21748.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -3598.30 -3716.20 -4267.20

Wins 1967 3635 4984
Plays 10874 10874 10874
PCT .1809 .3343 .4583

ROI 0.8345 0.8291 0.8038
Avg Mut 9.23 4.96 3.51


I note that the 18% win rate for horses claimed out of their most recent start is almost 1.5X the win rate of all starters in general. I also note that the .83 flat win bet roi compares favorably to the .75 roi of all starters in general. (Another way of saying something I already knew... Horses claimed out of their most recent start tend to have better win rate and flat bet roi vs. horses not claimed out of their most recent start.)

Next, here's the above data sample broken out by the post time odds of the start they were claimed out of - in increments of 2.50 points:

By: Odds Last Start

>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 2.50 -2445.20 11034.00 0.7784 1058 5517 .1918 1.0602
2.50 5.00 -983.00 6352.00 0.8452 546 3176 .1719 0.9504
5.00 7.50 -80.90 2128.00 0.9620 181 1064 .1701 0.9404
7.50 10.00 -5.60 944.00 0.9941 82 472 .1737 0.9604
10.00 12.50 -73.20 508.00 0.8559 41 254 .1614 0.8923
12.50 15.00 80.60 264.00 1.3053 20 132 .1515 0.8376
15.00 17.50 -26.40 182.00 0.8549 15 91 .1648 0.9112
17.50 20.00 -30.90 92.00 0.6641 6 46 .1304 0.7211
20.00 22.50 -12.30 56.00 0.7804 6 28 .2143 1.1846
22.50 25.00 -40.60 62.00 0.3452 2 31 .0645 0.3567
25.00 27.50 41.20 40.00 2.0300 3 20 .1500 0.8292
27.50 30.00 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
30.00 32.50 7.00 22.00 1.3182 2 11 .1818 1.0051
32.50 35.00 -2.80 8.00 0.6500 1 4 .2500 1.3821
35.00 37.50 11.60 4.00 3.9000 2 2 1.0000 5.5282
37.50 40.00 2.20 8.00 1.2750 1 4 .2500 1.3821
40.00 42.50 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
42.50 45.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
45.00 999999.00 -4.00 8.00 0.5000 1 4 .2500 1.3821



Note the flat win bet roi of horses whose odds were below 5-1 in the race they were claimed out of. Next, note the flat win bet roi of horses whose odds were between 5-1 and 15-1 in the race they were claimed out of.

My "lean" based on the numbers is that there's some hidden value to be had here.

Thinking this through a little further, I'm guessing I can come up with a list of trainers who do well with claims whose odds were in the 5-1 to 15-1 odds range in the race they were claimed out of.

Conversely, I'm also guessing I can compile a list of trainers who fail miserably with the same tactics.



-jp

.

tonypp
03-09-2013, 11:20 PM
IN my earlier post i said you need to know trainers looking for breeding mares or trainers that have a terriable strike rate,if your sharp this is a profitable angle.I was curious what a larger sample might look like - so I ran it against my calendar year 2012 database. (The database itself contains every thoroughbred race at every North American track.)

I show 10,874 starters that raced during calendar year 2012 who were claimed out of their most recent start.

Here's what the results for that set of horses looks like:

UDM Definition: CLAIM_1BK
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Claimed: MinRaces= 1 MaxRaces= 1 MinDays= -999 MaxDays= 999
Running Style: ALL


query start: 3/9/2013 7:40:13 PM
query end: 3/9/2013 7:40:29 PM
elapsed time: 16 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pl_Claims.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 18149.70 18031.80 17480.80
Bet -21748.00 -21748.00 -21748.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -3598.30 -3716.20 -4267.20

Wins 1967 3635 4984
Plays 10874 10874 10874
PCT .1809 .3343 .4583

ROI 0.8345 0.8291 0.8038
Avg Mut 9.23 4.96 3.51


Next, here's the above data sample broken out by the post time odds of the start they were claimed out of - in increments of 2.50 points:

By: Odds Last Start

>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 2.50 -2445.20 11034.00 0.7784 1058 5517 .1918 1.0602
2.50 5.00 -983.00 6352.00 0.8452 546 3176 .1719 0.9504
5.00 7.50 -80.90 2128.00 0.9620 181 1064 .1701 0.9404
7.50 10.00 -5.60 944.00 0.9941 82 472 .1737 0.9604
10.00 12.50 -73.20 508.00 0.8559 41 254 .1614 0.8923
12.50 15.00 80.60 264.00 1.3053 20 132 .1515 0.8376
15.00 17.50 -26.40 182.00 0.8549 15 91 .1648 0.9112
17.50 20.00 -30.90 92.00 0.6641 6 46 .1304 0.7211
20.00 22.50 -12.30 56.00 0.7804 6 28 .2143 1.1846
22.50 25.00 -40.60 62.00 0.3452 2 31 .0645 0.3567
25.00 27.50 41.20 40.00 2.0300 3 20 .1500 0.8292
27.50 30.00 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
30.00 32.50 7.00 22.00 1.3182 2 11 .1818 1.0051
32.50 35.00 -2.80 8.00 0.6500 1 4 .2500 1.3821
35.00 37.50 11.60 4.00 3.9000 2 2 1.0000 5.5282
37.50 40.00 2.20 8.00 1.2750 1 4 .2500 1.3821
40.00 42.50 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
42.50 45.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
45.00 999999.00 -4.00 8.00 0.5000 1 4 .2500 1.3821



Note the flat win bet roi of horses whose odds were below 5-1 in the race they were claimed out of. Next, note the flat win bet roi of horses whose odds were between 5-1 and 15-1 in the race they were claimed out of.

My "lean" based on the numbers is that there's some hidden value to be had here.

Thinking this through a little further, I'm guessing I can come up with a list of trainers who do well with claims whose odds were in the 5-1 to 15-1 odds range in the race they were claimed out of.

Conversely, I'm also guessing I can compile a list of trainers who fail miserably with the same tactics.



-jp

.

DeltaLover
03-09-2013, 11:23 PM
so lets say there was a horse that was dq and was 50 to 1 odds does that make it a winning forumula,so you saying 39 races makes a high enough sample size a disagree.Come back to me with about 2000 races.


I never said so and I am not doing anything like this.

tonypp
03-10-2013, 01:02 PM
if you believe those angles have the same value you are foolish.Rob,

This angle has exactly the same value as betting grey horses the second week after a full moon, it is completely random as can proven by data research

Robert Fischer
03-10-2013, 01:07 PM
I was curious what a larger sample might look like - so I ran it against my calendar year 2012 database. (The database itself contains every thoroughbred race at every North American track.)

I show 10,874 starters that raced during calendar year 2012 who were claimed out of their most recent start.

Here's what the results for that set of horses looks like:

UDM Definition: CLAIM_1BK
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Claimed: MinRaces= 1 MaxRaces= 1 MinDays= -999 MaxDays= 999
Running Style: ALL


query start: 3/9/2013 7:40:13 PM
query end: 3/9/2013 7:40:29 PM
elapsed time: 16 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\2012\Q4_2012\pl_Claims.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 18149.70 18031.80 17480.80
Bet -21748.00 -21748.00 -21748.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -3598.30 -3716.20 -4267.20

Wins 1967 3635 4984
Plays 10874 10874 10874
PCT .1809 .3343 .4583

ROI 0.8345 0.8291 0.8038
Avg Mut 9.23 4.96 3.51


I note that the 18% win rate for horses claimed out of their most recent start is almost 1.5X the win rate of all starters in general. I also note that the .83 flat win bet roi compares favorably to the .75 roi of all starters in general. (Another way of saying something I already knew... Horses claimed out of their most recent start tend to have better win rate and flat bet roi vs. horses not claimed out of their most recent start.)

Next, here's the above data sample broken out by the post time odds of the start they were claimed out of - in increments of 2.50 points:

By: Odds Last Start

>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 2.50 -2445.20 11034.00 0.7784 1058 5517 .1918 1.0602
2.50 5.00 -983.00 6352.00 0.8452 546 3176 .1719 0.9504
5.00 7.50 -80.90 2128.00 0.9620 181 1064 .1701 0.9404
7.50 10.00 -5.60 944.00 0.9941 82 472 .1737 0.9604
10.00 12.50 -73.20 508.00 0.8559 41 254 .1614 0.8923
12.50 15.00 80.60 264.00 1.3053 20 132 .1515 0.8376
15.00 17.50 -26.40 182.00 0.8549 15 91 .1648 0.9112
17.50 20.00 -30.90 92.00 0.6641 6 46 .1304 0.7211
20.00 22.50 -12.30 56.00 0.7804 6 28 .2143 1.1846
22.50 25.00 -40.60 62.00 0.3452 2 31 .0645 0.3567
25.00 27.50 41.20 40.00 2.0300 3 20 .1500 0.8292
27.50 30.00 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
30.00 32.50 7.00 22.00 1.3182 2 11 .1818 1.0051
32.50 35.00 -2.80 8.00 0.6500 1 4 .2500 1.3821
35.00 37.50 11.60 4.00 3.9000 2 2 1.0000 5.5282
37.50 40.00 2.20 8.00 1.2750 1 4 .2500 1.3821
40.00 42.50 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
42.50 45.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
45.00 999999.00 -4.00 8.00 0.5000 1 4 .2500 1.3821



Note the flat win bet roi of horses whose odds were below 5-1 in the race they were claimed out of. Next, note the flat win bet roi of horses whose odds were between 5-1 and 15-1 in the race they were claimed out of.

My "lean" based on the numbers is that there's some hidden value to be had here.

Thinking this through a little further, I'm guessing I can come up with a list of trainers who do well with claims whose odds were in the 5-1 to 15-1 odds range in the race they were claimed out of.

Conversely, I'm also guessing I can compile a list of trainers who fail miserably with the same tactics.



-jp

.



wow, great post.

Thanks for sharing.

Stillriledup
03-10-2013, 01:40 PM
Great great post Jeff, like RF said, thanks for sharing your hard work.

MJC922
03-10-2013, 09:08 PM
Have to admit the angle brought a smile to my face. I sent it in to Olmstead's newsletter probably two decades ago. In those days an angle like this (even if it made money) couldn't help me reach goals. It was sent in more to illustrate what Beyer called "the logic of illogic" than anything else, when people are putting money down on something which on the surface of it doesn't make any sense, take a second look.

Midnight Cruiser
03-12-2013, 12:35 PM
Let me know when you have a qualifier on the system. I may give it a whirl. MC

tonypp
03-12-2013, 12:44 PM
whats a qualifierLet me know when you have a qualifier on the system. I may give it a whirl. MC

Midnight Cruiser
03-12-2013, 01:50 PM
I asked myself would i pony up 35000 for a 10 to 1 shot or higher,i told the trainer your crazy i want the favorite. Here it goes if a horse was claimed at 10 to 1 odds or higher i bet him the next two times out.Couple things you need to watch for, big money claiming a well bred mare for breeding,someone getting bad advice.I have charted a year back on a couple of tracks and its a winning system.

So maybe dont play the system with fillies and mares?

tonypp
03-12-2013, 02:55 PM
if there mother is a good broodmare a throw it out,if its not well bred i play.So maybe dont play the system with fillies and mares?

andicap
03-12-2013, 03:02 PM
if there mother is a good broodmare a throw it out,if its not well bred i play.

Tony, I might be missing something with your angle. The odds on the horse LAST RACE had to be 10-1.

1. Is there a minimum odds requirement for today's race?

2. Also, if the angle is so good, why give it out and bring down the odds?

tonypp
03-12-2013, 05:29 PM
no requirement,the reason i given the angle its more of a spot play, you might get two bets a a day if your lucky.To answer your second question theres alot of homework that goes along with this angle,and if someone is willing to put the effort and time in charting the horses it doesnt bother me if im losing a little value.Tony, I might be missing something with your angle. The odds on the horse LAST RACE had to be 10-1.

1. Is there a minimum odds requirement for today's race?

2. Also, if the angle is so good, why give it out and bring down the odds?

Show Me the Wire
03-12-2013, 07:24 PM
tonypp is right, it is a good angle. A little story about such a claim. I was looking for a two- turn router type to compliment the stable for an upcoming meet.

The day I claimed him he went off around 15 - 1. Every one thought I was insane because I dropped a slip on the longest priced horse in the field. His trainer had been darkening the horse's form by sprinting him around one turn and routing him in one-turn miles.

As the race unfolded the animal was dead last, as expected and every one was nervous I wasted my money claiming a 15 - 1 horse. I calmly told my friends just wait for the stretch and then we will see. At the top of the stretch the horse closed from dead last, maneuvering through horses to finish a decent third. The strong finish confirmed my belief the animal was sound and needed more ground.

The horse went on to win 4 route races in a row around two-turns, and lost the the 5th one by a nose on the day I lost him to a claim.

The point is, just as tonypp stated, someone willing to plunk down thousands of dollars on a double digit odds horse has a plan and that plan is centered around the condition book or breeding.

Midnight Cruiser
03-13-2013, 12:56 PM
if there mother is a good broodmare a throw it out,if its not well bred i play.

the problem with that theory is these days most of the mothers are good. why not just only play male horses?

tonypp
03-13-2013, 01:45 PM
that cuts in half most races,plus i disagree with most mares are good broodmares.

Stillriledup
03-14-2013, 11:25 PM
22-1 shot winner of the 7th race at Aqu was claimed, she won by 6 lengths!

phattty
03-15-2013, 09:56 PM
Today's 5th@ laurel


#8. Callmewhatchuwant. Claimed outta last @ 15-1



Wins today @ 81-1

wish I could say I played it

tonypp
03-16-2013, 12:05 AM
great day.:jump: why didnt you play it.Today's 5th@ laurel


#8. Callmewhatchuwant. Claimed outta last @ 15-1



Wins today @ 81-1

wish I could say I played it

tonypp
03-16-2013, 12:08 AM
same value delta lover up 90 units in one day,thats alot of grey horses after a full moon.Rob,

This angle has exactly the same value as betting grey horses the second week after a full moon, it is completely random as can proven by data research

MJC922
03-16-2013, 05:17 PM
IMO, the value of any angle to a handicapper who is practicing a comprehensive approach should not be measured by ROI. An angle is useful if it helps you set more accurate probabilities. A simple angle like third start off the layoff I'm sure loses the 'take', however the fact that horses as a group tend to run a better number in that start vs. their first two make the angle relevant to setting probabilities.

Anyway, back to the claimed at 10-1 or higher angle - I was somewhat beaten by it today in the 4th at Oaklawn. My Girl Sherri on my numbers was coming off a better effort than the rest of them and seemed a solid-enough play to me at 7-2, she figured to close and was making her second lifetime start in a race which appeared to be pretty well loaded with early speed.

25-1 shot Desi Dawn was making her third lifetime start and away for 17 weeks for a winless trainer, broke from the rail and posted 21-3/5, shrugged off an early challenger and held for the win. My Girl Sherri, middle moved on the turn and just up for second. Looking back at the winner after the race, I noticed she was claimed two back at 16-1. Tough game. No, I did not play a saver. :)

tonypp
03-16-2013, 06:20 PM
donations to the red cross.

Midnight Cruiser
03-16-2013, 07:36 PM
Tony, youre hot. Any 10-1 claims going tomorrow?

JJMartin
03-16-2013, 10:06 PM
Angle for test and comparison with Tony angle in DB:
Looking at top 3 bppr horses, Bet only 1 horse per race. Bet which ever of the top 3 highest ranking bppr horse's has m/l odds between 5-1 and 10-1 only. If more than 1 horse qualifies, bet the highest bppr rank only (tie on rank figure, use lower m/l). Races with no first time starters only, every horse must have a rank. If top 3 are either over or under odds requirement, skip that race.

JJMartin
03-16-2013, 10:24 PM
one more thing, if possible use races with no race day scratches

Ray2000
03-17-2013, 06:42 AM
Interesting thread, I did a quick look at Harness Claims in the other Forum

The 200 largest odds day of claim (18/1 or higher) in their next start shows a +12% ROI

netbet
03-17-2013, 10:44 AM
I haven't looked at any other cards today but in the 2nd at Gulfstream....
#3 Qualityfirst was claimed last out at 10.20-1

Patrick

tonypp
03-17-2013, 03:53 PM
took the lead,died the last 200 yards, came in 3rd.Even though he lost the horse was still live,and at 12 to 1 odds thats a hard thing to find.

netbet
03-17-2013, 09:21 PM
Tony, horse definitely looked live. Grabbed the lead from the gate.
Engaged in a duel and faded but still hung around for third.
This angle will have me tracking trainers with this move.

Patrick

netbet
03-20-2013, 02:06 PM
Wednesday (3/20) at Aqueduct- 7th race;

#7 Princess Mara claimed in her last by Steve Asmussen from Dale Romans. Finished 3rd at 17.30-1
15-1 Morning Line today.

Midnight Cruiser
03-20-2013, 08:03 PM
Wednesday (3/20) at Aqueduct- 7th race;

#7 Princess Mara claimed in her last by Steve Asmussen from Dale Romans. Finished 3rd at 17.30-1
15-1 Morning Line today.

ran 5th. put her in your stable for 1 more looksee, no?

tonypp
03-20-2013, 08:29 PM
yes,i bet you they put her on turf and strecth her out,next outing.ran 5th. put her in your stable for 1 more looksee, no?

netbet
03-22-2013, 10:14 AM
Friday March 22nd- Gulfstream-8th

#2 Kanavayen claimed on 2/13 by Kirk Ziadie from Rodolfo Garcia. 14.50/1 on that day and listed at 10/1 this afternoon.

Goes Turf to Dirt

Posted prior to scratches.

ranchwest
03-23-2013, 12:31 PM
Friday March 22nd- Gulfstream-8th

#2 Kanavayen claimed on 2/13 by Kirk Ziadie from Rodolfo Garcia. 14.50/1 on that day and listed at 10/1 this afternoon.

Goes Turf to Dirt

Posted prior to scratches.

Trainer scratch

netbet
03-27-2013, 10:39 AM
3/27/13- Aqueduct - Race 3:

#7 Cashleigh claimed by Bruce Brown from Joe Aquilino on 2/21. This one moves up in class. Was 16.70-1 in last and is 20-1 on the morning line today. The one has one start on the main track at the Big A and finished 2nd. This one will be a huge price.

tonypp
03-27-2013, 06:39 PM
Ask Eddy was claimed at 8 to 1 two starts back,for some reason I had him in my barn.

netbet
04-04-2013, 12:32 PM
For Thursday 4/4/13

GP3- #1 Expropriate
GP7- #2 Five Small

OP7-#6 Storming Senor

Patrick

bobbyb
04-04-2013, 02:12 PM
For Thursday 4/4/13

GP3- #1 Expropriate
GP7- #2 Five Small

OP7-#6 Storming Senor

Patrick

Well she tried her best (incl crashing off the 9) - and 25.00 to place is very very good for a simple angle. Thanks Guys for posting up,

bobby

tonypp
04-04-2013, 02:14 PM
that was impressive, expropriate made up a ton of ground with about 75 yards left.For Thursday 4/4/13

GP3- #1 Expropriate
GP7- #2 Five Small

OP7-#6 Storming Senor

Patrick