Derby Candidate?

[mudnturf]

I've learned that not too many horses broke their maiden as a 3 year old and went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos both broke their maiden in January, and Proud Clarion (1967) broke his in February.
Broker's Tip (1933) broke his maiden IN the Derby.

The reason I mention all this is because I was impressed with the race of a 3 year old named EDDINGTON.
He won a MSW on Saturday at Gulfstream....the third start of his career....AQU in Nov. and GP in Jan.
His pedigree is A+. He's by Unbridled out of a very classy Chief's Crown mare, and is in Mark Hennig's barn.

He may have defeated "nothing" in that race, but he did it effortlessly.
Did anyone happen to see the 6th at GP on Saturday?

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by mudnturf
I've learned that not too many horses broke their maiden as a 3 year old and went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos both broke their maiden in January, and Proud Clarion (1967) broke his in February.
Broker's Tip (1933) broke his maiden IN the Derby.


You're missing a big one. Despite a decent juvenile campaign, Sir Barton's first three wins came in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.

[OTM Al]

Was there. Have watched Eddington in all 3 of his races actually. Surprised he didn't win before this. He is a strong horse, well built and as you say, great breeding. I bet him all 3 times. The one I like even better from Hennig's barn is Play All Night (by Coronado's Quest out of Play All Day). Hennig seems to take his time getting the young ones out for their first race, especially the ones who have a real shot at something like these two. Play All Night broke his maiden on first try on I believe Dec 13.

[mudnturf]

OTM Al (The OTM doesn't stand for "Out of The Money" ....does it?
;-))

I'll keep tabs on Play All Night.
His dam is a Canadian Bred with mucho stamina in the family.
Thanks!

[OTM Al]

Hehehe You figured it out. Actually in proper Brooklynese it's Outta da Money Al. It came out of a joke conversation with me and my goil, er girlfriend when we decided we should have racetrack names. On a note closer to the conversation though, Hennig actually has his own website for his horses. Not way advanced, but a good way to keep track of what he's up to

http://www.tlorehorses.com/trainers/hennig/main.cfm

[mudnturf]

"OTM Al"

Bally's Las Vegas is quoting the following odds:

EDDINGTON - opened at 200-1 / Now 75-1
PLAY ALL NIGHT - opened at 200-1 / Now 500-1

If you like the latter, find a friend in Las Vegas to make the bet for you.

I'd like to be a fly on the wall in Hennig's barn.

[Bubbles]

For my Derby horse, I look toward a horse that is unbeaten, has never been challenged, and is being seriously overlooked. I'm going with Cactus Ridge. Anyone have odds on him?

[Whirlaway]

On the plus side, he ran a fast time (nearly two seconds faster than Miss Coranado in the Grade II Davona Dale two races later.) My back of the envelope Beyer for Eddington would be about 103.

On the other hand, at the 3/16ths pole he looked like he'd win breezing, but he got tired mid-stretch and started ducking in. Bailey really had to work on him to get him to switch leads. When he finally did switch leads, he got a bit of a second wind and drew off nicely.

All in all it was a good effort, but not one of those eye-popping Look-at-this-horse-wouldja! kind of things. I feel most really top horses move more fluidly than this guy, but that's just based on one race. He's got talent for sure.

[OTM Al]

Whirlaway,

I'd have to say it would be a bit lower than that, though most likely high 90s. The track was faster than I remeber seeing it for the whole meet on Sat and Sun. Horses were able to go to the rail and hold their speed unlike earlier in the meet. Looked like monday it was beginning to revert back though. Really screwed up my picks early and had to do a lot of reajusting.

mudnturf,

Would love to put a bet on him, but I'm thinking more for the future with Play All Night. They're bringing him along nicely, but I think it will be late summer before he really blossoms. Honestly I'd rather see this fellow have a nice career rather than have to face the abusive triple crown schedule and then retire at three. Right now if I had to pick for the Derby, I'd go with Second of June.

[Whirlaway]

103 for Eddington would give Maglia D'oro a 118 and Miss Coranodo an 85, which seems about right to me. Maglia ran huge and Miss Coranodo looked good despite slow time for the race.

[mudnturf]

No CACTUS RIDGE on Bally's list of Derby candidates. And there are 263 horses on that list.

SECOND OF JUNE is listed at 10-1.....Much too short a price to take in FEBRUARY!

The complete list is at:
www.ballysraceandsports.com

[sjk]

Whirlaway,

My figures for GP 2/7 look about like yours:


Eddington 103
M D'O 120
Miss Coronado 86

[chrisg]

Originally posted by Bubbles
For my Derby horse, I look toward a horse that is unbeaten, has never been challenged, and is being seriously overlooked. I'm going with Cactus Ridge. Anyone have odds on him?

Bubbles, save your $2 or take a shot on Tiger Heart...speculation now is just that...

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=51029&subs=0&arc=1

[Gold Bay]

I like Lionheart at 15-1 and a small flyer Lucky Pulpit at 50-1

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will be looking for fast improver who stepped up to and finished well in a MAJOR stakes competition last race prior to derby. I think RQ, FC, WE and other recent winners have done that.

[OTM Al]

Whirlaway and mudnturf,

Looks like I was pretty close with the speed figs on Eddington. Just got the DRF derby round 1 issue and they have him at a 97. That could adjust up a point or two later, as I've seen that happen. Like I said, the track that day was faster than I've seen it all season. Medaglia D'Oro around a 112-115 would be legitamate as well as he didn't have a trouble free race. Still, regardless of a point here or there, Eddington looks pretty good and we all know how good Medaglia D'Oro is. Good start to his Horse of the Year campaign.

[mudnturf]

Kenwoodallpros

Your strategy is logical and sound.

However, my objective is to spot a candidate in February, before the world becomes aware of him, in order to take advantage (?) of long odds.
Finding those "value" horses becomes more and more difficult as we approach May 1st.

[cj]

Originally posted by mudnturf
Finding those "value" horses becomes more and more difficult as we approach May 1st.

You know, I've been told this. But Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, and Charasmatic kind of blow that theory out the window.

[mudnturf]

You know, I've been told this. But Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, and Charasmatic kind of blow that theory out the window. [/B]

CJ,
Are you suggesting that higher odds on those four horses could not have been obtained in early FEBRUARY?
Considering that on Derby Day they were:
13-1 Funny Cide
20-1 War Emblem
10-1 Monarchos
30-1 Charismatic
I believe otherwise.

[cj]

I'm not saying that at all Lee. I just don't think the its worth the risk. People can't even figure out the winner on race day, so why bother with horses who might (probably) won't even run. You can find substantial overlays every Derby day. Just my opinion, for what that's worth. :)

[mudnturf]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I'm not saying that at all Lee. I just don't think the its worth the risk. People can't even figure out the winner on race day, so why bother with horses who might (probably) won't even run. You can find substantial overlays every Derby day. Just my opinion, for what that's worth. :)


Oh, for sure. I just think it's kind of exciting to have a horse at 100-1 or more that actually GETS to the Derby.
Chances are, if you're lucky, he'll go postward in the race at odds a lot shorter than those at which you bet him......or her!

Are futures wagers bad bets? On balance, I'd have to say "yes".
But they can give you a kick while your horse stays on the Derby trail.

[Niko]

Sometimes it's ok to bet for fun!
I generally don't like futures but I'm dipping my toes for the second time depending on how it plays out (odds, races) this weekend. Taking a shot on Minister Eric (maybe Birdstone but odds will probably be too low) Cliffs Edge is also a possibility, we'll see.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I pick the horse named GAMBLIN"- it's not worth 2 "g"s!LOL!

[depalma13]

Originally posted by Bubbles
Sir Barton's first three wins came in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.

Sir Barton actually won the Whithers between his Preakness and Belmont wins.

Another interesting tidbit is that his Belmont win was at a distance of 1 and 3/8ths miles.

Here's another neat fact, he lost to his stablemate Billy Kelly, the horse he was a rabbit for in the derby, in the 6 furlong Harve de Grace sprint. TWO DAYS LATER, he defeated his stablemate in the Potomac Handicap.

[OTM Al]

Hey mudnturf. Looks like your guy is still clicking here. Wish I knew what happened to Play All Night though. He looked like he was about to make the same jump forward and has now vanished since a work on Feb 7.

Don't know why I even bothered to bet Eddington's race Saturday. It was such a slam dunk that everyone had him with the 2 and 6. Bet 5/2+6 exacta and tri, but just $2 each. Got back a whole $4.70 on the exacta and $8.80 on the triple for an astounding profit of $5 and change. Can't remember seeing a lower triple payout lately. Guess I could have really hit it hard, but just didn't seem worth it on the odds. Looking forward to seeing Eddington as a single on the next derby pool. You got an estimate of a speed fig for that race?

[mudnturf]

OTM Al

Eddington got a 101 Beyer number for Saturday's (2/28) effort.
I only hope Hennig finds the right spots for him.
I like Mark but I can't recall him ever having a Derby runner.
Did he?

[OTM Al]

Not that comes to mind, but he does have a couple quality horses under his care right now, Gygistar for one. Everybody has to have their first I guess, but I like what he's done too.

I'm buying in on Eddington now for sure. I'm liking Smarty Jones quite a bit too, but if he gets in, he may well burn up a bit early. Read the Footnotes just seems too obvious right now. Got to pull for the NY bred, but something tells me he won't get it done.

[mudnturf]

Re: READ THE FOOTNOTES

If Rick Violette wins the Kentucky Derby with this horse he deserves and shall receive my utmost respect. My reservations are based primarily on two reasons:

1. Although there's some evidence of stamina on his Dam's side (Al Nasr, Lyphard, Vaguely Noble....more so on turf than on dirt), I just can't see a son of Smoke Glacken (with names like Two Punch and Magesterial on his Sire's side), winning at ten furlongs.

2. I believe his brilliant effort in winning the Fountain of Youth was a little too much too soon for a horse on the Derby trail.

[OTM Al]

He did run a very hard race, but I wouldn't have downgraded Second of June were he still in one piece, for the same effort. SoJ on the rail at GP with a fractured leg and still ran a 113 Beyer. Man I love that horse. Hope he can come back. Anyway, everyone is knocking RtF for being a Smoke Glacken. It seems like one of those old standards that are too often wrong. I would be much more worried about using him up too early than who his parents are any day.