San Felipe 2013

[redshift1]

Two of the top ten three year olds face off. Flashback has some competition on Saturday as several in the field have a decent chance. At least on paper.



1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $300,000


1 Carving
2 Flashback
3 Goldencents
4 Kochees
5 Hear the Ghost
6 Tiz a Minister
7 Salutos Amigos
8 Omega Star

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[plainolebill]

Bris pps:

Bob Baffert pp (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=7&date=2013-03-09)

[redshift1]

Bris pps:

Bob Baffert pp (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SA&race=7&date=2013-03-09)

Wish DRF would provide non gratis the same as BRIS.

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[plainolebill]

Wish DRF would provide non gratis the same as BRIS.

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Gratis would be better. :D

Looks like an interesting race from a fan's perspective but I don't think I'll be buying many tickets.

[redshift1]

Gratis would be better. :D

Looks like an interesting race from a fan's perspective but I don't think I'll be buying many tickets.


Wow, did i mix that up !!!!

[precocity]

big fan of Goldencents has great speed and the will to strike for the win. just think 1/16 is about as far as he goes? If he could rate a little better than we will see but the horse has a lot of heart.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not a huge fan of Flashback yet. He's talented and has upside, but he didn't beat a strong field and got away with an easy lead last time. This time he should get some quality pressure from Goldenscents. He'll have to put away that horse and possibly still hold off a few other decent forward moving horses. We'll find out what he's made of in that race. At a very short price again, I'd be tempted to try to beat him, but I'm not dying to jump in.

[iceknight]

It is actually a wide open race. Tiz a minister is a real danger with Gomez on board. (goldencents/flashback being the other two main contenders)

[BlueChip@DRF]

:4: Kochees - he did not embarrass himself against the class of horses he ran against last time.

[GaryG]

Hear the Ghost made my watch list with his big 2nd place finish behind a very fast sprinter. Love his work pattern and think he will run big around two turns. With all of the focus on the two favorites he should offer some value.

[ten2oneormore]

It is actually a wide open race. Tiz a minister is a real danger with Gomez on board. (goldencents/flashback being the other two main contenders)

I'm thinking Tiz A Minister is going to be the biggest overlay in the field.Appears a little slow and being a cal bred probably gets disrespected but has a lot of things in his favor.

[Leparoux]

:2: :5: :7:

[precocity]

:3: :1: :6: :2:

[redshift1]

Track condition may play more of a part than usual with the recent rain.

[HPFridays]

Hear the Ghost made my watch list with his big 2nd place finish behind a very fast sprinter. Love his work pattern and think he will run big around two turns. With all of the focus on the two favorites he should offer some value.

Agree, I like him too and am hearing a few other respected handicappers mention him. A horse he ran down in his debut, Let Em Shine, came back and destroyed a nice group of maidens in his next out. He shuuld enjoy this fast pace and distance. You can really see him shift gears once he switches leads in the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

The more I look at this race the more I think it's possible Flashback could get a decent trip. Salutos Amigos will probably go for the lead coming out of the hot sprints. He in turn may drag Goldencents into running faster than average early. If Flashback can relax off them, he may find himself with first move against tiring speeds instead of first move against fresh quality speed.

[menifee]

It is actually a wide open race. Tiz a minister is a real danger with Gomez on board. (goldencents/flashback being the other two main contenders)

I agree with you about Tiz a Minister. This horse looks like the real deal. I've watched all his replays and this horse has been ridden incorrectly a lot. He just wants to make one monster run. You can see it in his races. He's been ridden too close to the pace or the jockey has had him stopped. GG figured it out last time and that race was incredible. You may get another wet track again. While he is moving up in class, the value will be there and there will be pace for him to run into.

[plainolebill]

The more I look at this race the more I think it's possible Flashback could get a decent trip. Salutos Amigos will probably go for the lead coming out of the hot sprints. He in turn may drag Goldencents into running faster than average early. If Flashback can relax off them, he may find himself with first move against tiring speeds instead of first move against fresh quality speed.

I think that's the key to the race, if Flashback relaxes. I'm inclined to lean toward one of the closers, either Hollendorfer's colt or Tiz a Minister.

[Some_One]

:4: Kochees - he did not embarrass himself against the class of horses he ran against last time.

Agreed, that ML is a joke considering the top 2 in his last, also like the :6:

[Leparoux]

Tiz a Minister last race :eek:

[Stillriledup]

He probably can't go two turns, but this 7 horse was spectacular last time, explosive win and he's 30-1....

[Robert Fischer]

hot pace

[iceknight]

hot pace 45.95 for half.. haha.. Flashback held on well at 1 1/16 but with a more sensible pace, he might be able to do better.

[iceknight]

Hear the Ghost made my watch list Good call! you and HPF....

looks like Corey Nakatani might make it to Derby day ! And he definitely speaks it about in the post race interview. Good luck to him and this son of Ghostzapper!

[Robert Fischer]

45.95 for half.. haha.. Flashback held on well at 1 1/16 but with a more sensible pace, he might be able to do better.

Flashback went head to head with a good horse.

Hard to fault the ride too much, because Goldencents could have ran on if he was left alone.

Haven't studied the race too much, but it sure looked like a pace duel and then the fact that two closers made a run is more of a tip-off, than if maybe one closer ran freaky good late.

[Stillriledup]

Flashback went head to head with a good horse.

Hard to fault the ride too much, because Goldencents could have ran on if he was left alone.

Haven't studied the race too much, but it sure looked like a pace duel and then the fact that two closers made a run is more of a tip-off, than if maybe one closer ran freaky good late.

that grey of bafferts was better than i thought he would be, didnt think he could look a good horse in the eye and put him away. I knew he was decent, but i wasnt sold to bet him at even money in there. Strong effort for sure.

[classhandicapper]

I thought Flashback was best. He got drawn into the action way too soon. I blame the rider for that. To me, it looked like the horse was reasonably comfortable inside off the pace, but the rider wanted to get outside. So he moved early to get away from the horse that was outside him. That wound up drawing Goldenscents into the action early also. So you wound up with 3 way pressure and a much hotter pace than need be long before any of it had to happen.

I thought that was the whole key to the race going in. You had to figure out whether Flashback was going to rate or get drawn into a hot pace because it seemed clear the sprinter would get the lead and Goldenscents would be stalking him in lively fractions.

It's always easier after the race. :lol:

I think he's a pretty good horse, but he's going to have to relax to get 10F.

[letswastemoney]

Hear the Ghost only earned a 93. Is that "legitimate" or projected because of the fast pace?

[classhandicapper]

Hear the Ghost only earned a 93. Is that "legitimate" or projected because of the fast pace?

I haven't looked at the day yet, but most likely that's the figure he earned. The assumption (mine at least) would be that had the pace been softer, Flashback would have run a figure faster than a 93 and won.

[letswastemoney]

I haven't looked at the day yet, but most likely that's the figure he earned. The assumption (mine at least) would be that had the pace been softer, Flashback would have run a figure faster than a 93 and won.
I thought the reason they adjusted that Mark Valeski Beyer a few weeks ago was because the pace was too slow, so they made it higher.

Would not a sprinter's pace in a route race, like the one in the San Felipe, promote a faster final time and therefore a Beyer that should look too high rather than a 93 then?

That is how I understand it. You may be right as I don't claim to be an expert in how speed figures are made.

[classhandicapper]

I thought the reason they adjusted that Mark Valeski Beyer a few weeks ago was because the pace was too slow, so they made it higher.

Would not a sprinter's pace in a route race, like the one in the San Felipe, promote a faster final time and therefore a Beyer that should look too high rather than a 93 then?

That is how I understand it. You may be right as I don't claim to be an expert in how speed figures are made.

Let the figure makers review the race first to see if he tweaked it, but he typically just tweaks the slow paced races.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought the reason they adjusted that Mark Valeski Beyer a few weeks ago was because the pace was too slow, so they made it higher.

Would not a sprinter's pace in a route race, like the one in the San Felipe, promote a faster final time and therefore a Beyer that should look too high rather than a 93 then?


Anything "extreme" can be a negative to the final time.

The fastest times come from ideal paces. Where a good horse can go the distance as fast as possible.

If it's insanely fast early (or a bad trip, or tough duel), then the horses are spent too soon and come home slow.

If it's insanely slow early, they waste too much time for most of the race to run a very fast final time.

[pele polo]

A nice young jock but Krigger made some mistakes early. They went too quick the first quarter and Krigger sent his mount to the front as if they were crawling. Half was posted and I knew it was over. I wonder if he keeps the mount?

[precocity]

A nice young jock but Krigger made some mistakes early. They went too quick the first quarter and Krigger sent his mount to the front as if they were crawling. Half was posted and I knew it was over. I wonder if he keeps the mount?
I know, even when he was right behind the :7: you can see Goldencents head looking to the left then he swings him around the :7: and him and flashback go at it. right now I think Goldencents is to hung strong right now. He needs to learn to settle and rate.