Last race Louie

[porchy44]

Sometimes I feel Longshots win the last race of the day more frequently
than any other race of the card.

I wonder if anyone ever kept records of anything like this?

Also if true any reasons or conspiracy theories why this might be true. I'm thinking maybe poor quality fields of the last race may yield longer prices.

[turninforhome10]

I sometimes think that the last race odds board is directly affected by the results of the feature. Often times when a favorite gets beat in a feature, many folks will dump bunches on a bad favorite in the last to get even for the day, especially those folks who are playing the races with time constraints ie being at the track or only being able to play on weekend.

[Overlay]

I thought that the conventional wisdom (at one time, at least) was that people would take chances on longshots in the last race of the day in an effort to recoup losses, which would create overlays on lower-odds horses that had a better actual chance of winning.

[aaron]

I thought that the conventional wisdom (at one time, at least) was that people would take chances on longshots in the last race of the day in an effort to recoup losses, which would create overlays on lower-odds horses that had a better actual chance of winning.
I think you are correct. In NY,many times it seems to be the favorite is higher odds in the last race,than he would have been if it was the 3rd or 4th race of the day. Yesterday was a good example of this. Linda Rice horse,inside post,I believe went off about 9-5,probably should have been 6-5 or even money.

[turninforhome10]

I thought that the conventional wisdom (at one time, at least) was that people would take chances on longshots in the last race of the day in an effort to recoup losses, which would create overlays on lower-odds horses that had a better actual chance of winning.
I do agree with your wisdom here and think that we are both correct in sense. Novice players that are just out for the entertainment value would fall more into my explanation and more seasoned types would create your scenario. Just a thought, but I have seen both scenarios. I think it also depends on the race type. Many times in maiden claiming races bettors will crush a horse that has been running seconds and thirds and a well meant first time starter will pay boxcars.

[Stillriledup]

I think you are correct. In NY,many times it seems to be the favorite is higher odds in the last race,than he would have been if it was the 3rd or 4th race of the day. Yesterday was a good example of this. Linda Rice horse,inside post,I believe went off about 9-5,probably should have been 6-5 or even money.

I didnt love that Rice horse, he really fell apart in his previous start and i think enough handicappers thought the same thing and didnt pummel him to 6-5 status. But generally, the thought is that players are trying to 'get out' and therefore, arent likely to make a win bet on a 6-5 shot to recover earlier losses, they're more likely to shoot for the stars to recover all their days losses.

In the simulcasting age, i dont think that is as true as it once was, but it is somewhat valid.

To the OP's original question, i think that some tracks, So Cal definitely included, card wide open bad races as the finale to try and get Pentafecta carryovers. The Penta carries quite often in So Cal and i think that's the reason out there for the large fields of bad horses as the finale.

(with that said, SA has a 92k Penta carryover today....and for those not familiar with SA, its a real carryover, not a jackpot situation)

[Stillriledup]

Big A today, chalky horse won all the races....except....the finale.

:ThmbUp:

Hunch play in the finale at SA today, Louisthefifteenth....15-1 ML, first time gelding.

Why not, right? ;)

[iceknight]

Big A today, chalky horse won all the races....except....the finale.

:ThmbUp:

Hunch play in the finale at SA today, Louisthefifteenth....15-1 ML, first time gelding.

Why not, right? ;) HAHA I noticed this one too and played it, came here to report that hunch has to wait for another day! :D