Some_One
03-01-2013, 09:14 PM
In the 'what's an speed/pace figure?' threads, I've discussed how I've been trying to create a speed figure that takes into account the pace of the race, as we saw last week at Fairgrounds, you had 3 stakes races with a very fast pace (Rachael Alexandra), fast/moderate (Risen Star) and slow paces (Mineshaft) which has caused a fair bit of chatter especially how the slower Mineshaft FT had a higher beyer than the Risen Star.
So I've been playing with Excel and trying some formulas and I think I have something I like and now are going to test, publicity here to see as in two of these races, the likely favs are not contenders. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK! lol. Let's get to the Big Cap:
http://i49.tinypic.com/zlrkuc.gif
So from left to right, the columns are Program #, Name, last speed figure (numbers are on the Beyer scale), SF 2 back, SF 3 back, SF 4 back, an early speed rank estimating the projected running order at pace call, the average of the best 2 of last 3 (also calling it an 'ability'), the rank of those B2L3 figures, then a ranking of the ES rank multiplied by the ability rank.
The first thing I noticed with my calculations was that they were favoring the deep closers, but races are not usually run to their best interests, early speed always kills, and I still believe is underbet, so I wanted to factor that in somehow.
For my contender selection, the top 4 in the rank of ES X Ab ranks are highlighted, then I make sure they are in the top half in both the ES and Ability ranks to become a final contender.
In the Big Cap, Game on Dude presents an interesting situation, I don't think he's good enough to win (Ability rank 8), but there is not much speed in this race, so I think he'll be in the exotics. Called To Serve appears to have the ability and the early foot to stay close to GoD, so I think he's a great play at 6-1. Deacon Speakin at 50-1 is someone I will have to include in the exotics.
http://i50.tinypic.com/30j4klz.png
Suggestive Boy appears to be a worthwhile fav, but I'm more excitied by Forest Mouse at 15-1, his dirt results indicate he could have been dangerous in the Big Cap, but he wasn't disgraced in his turf debut, I think he could have run back to his 109 3 back if it wasn't for some troubles late in the stretch, notice the jockey switch.
http://i50.tinypic.com/21mayqq.gif
In the Gotham, I will be tempting fate and playing against Pletcher, as a general rule, favs coming off a long layoff are always a green light signal to play against for me, add in he doesn't have the early foot (disadvantage on the inner) and might not be good enough, Vyjack is a clear single for me as he dominates on both sides for me. Siste De Oros at 15-1 could be a fun horse to use.
Well that's all for now, let's see if this is worthwhile, of course with my luck Game on Dude and Overanalyze will win by 10 lengths, lol.
So I've been playing with Excel and trying some formulas and I think I have something I like and now are going to test, publicity here to see as in two of these races, the likely favs are not contenders. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK! lol. Let's get to the Big Cap:
http://i49.tinypic.com/zlrkuc.gif
So from left to right, the columns are Program #, Name, last speed figure (numbers are on the Beyer scale), SF 2 back, SF 3 back, SF 4 back, an early speed rank estimating the projected running order at pace call, the average of the best 2 of last 3 (also calling it an 'ability'), the rank of those B2L3 figures, then a ranking of the ES rank multiplied by the ability rank.
The first thing I noticed with my calculations was that they were favoring the deep closers, but races are not usually run to their best interests, early speed always kills, and I still believe is underbet, so I wanted to factor that in somehow.
For my contender selection, the top 4 in the rank of ES X Ab ranks are highlighted, then I make sure they are in the top half in both the ES and Ability ranks to become a final contender.
In the Big Cap, Game on Dude presents an interesting situation, I don't think he's good enough to win (Ability rank 8), but there is not much speed in this race, so I think he'll be in the exotics. Called To Serve appears to have the ability and the early foot to stay close to GoD, so I think he's a great play at 6-1. Deacon Speakin at 50-1 is someone I will have to include in the exotics.
http://i50.tinypic.com/30j4klz.png
Suggestive Boy appears to be a worthwhile fav, but I'm more excitied by Forest Mouse at 15-1, his dirt results indicate he could have been dangerous in the Big Cap, but he wasn't disgraced in his turf debut, I think he could have run back to his 109 3 back if it wasn't for some troubles late in the stretch, notice the jockey switch.
http://i50.tinypic.com/21mayqq.gif
In the Gotham, I will be tempting fate and playing against Pletcher, as a general rule, favs coming off a long layoff are always a green light signal to play against for me, add in he doesn't have the early foot (disadvantage on the inner) and might not be good enough, Vyjack is a clear single for me as he dominates on both sides for me. Siste De Oros at 15-1 could be a fun horse to use.
Well that's all for now, let's see if this is worthwhile, of course with my luck Game on Dude and Overanalyze will win by 10 lengths, lol.