Math Question

[gambler844]

I have a list of 100 winners 1C velocity numbers. I would like to determine what 1C velocity number a horse needs to run to be a winnner. In other words if a horse runs below say 60 at the first call he generally doesnt win. What is the best way to determine this number. Average the numbers, or use standard deviation. What is the best way to determine this number?
Thanks ed

[Buddha]

I would think since they are all winners, just average them out and that will give you the average winner 1C, which you could then find out some contenders using that number. Just add them all up, and divide by 100

[Tom]

If you average the numbers and then say that is the lowest number you will accept, you will throw out half of your winners.
You could look the list and use the 80 percentile - this would throw out 1 in 5 winners.
The lowest number on your list right now is the lower limit for winners....until something wins with a lower number.
Look the prices that bottom 10-20% paid. Is this where the longshots live? Do you really want to throw out several $50 winners?

Actually, I do exactly what you are suggesting with my HTR export data-I use 80% as my cut off guideline, but I do this for several factors, F-1, F-3, AP, EP, and SP. I don't eliminate a horse off hand becasue he cant meet the parameters of one factor. If a horse is later runner and he is well within the 80% range on SP andAP, I keep him in. When I find early horses boarderline on F-1, EP, and out of range on SP andAP, out they go.

[gambler844]

TOM
I also use HTR. Did you make up a program to determine the 80% or do you do it manually?