Pletcher & the Derby

[EJXD2]

Essential reading (http://blog.twinspires.com/2013/02/pletcher-and-derby-better-than-most.html) for anyone wanting to bash Pletcher's Derby record

[Track Phantom]

Not sure I agree with this report on Pletcher. The key piece missing here is how DOMINANT his horses have been in many of the prep races. His 3 year olds that make the Derby OFTEN vastly underperform to their preps.

[cj]

Essential reading (http://blog.twinspires.com/2013/02/pletcher-and-derby-better-than-most.html) for anyone wanting to bash Pletcher's Derby record

I only bash his record of getting his horses TO the Derby. 31 seems like a lot, but so many promising horses have been ruined along the way.

[5k-claim]

Essential reading (http://blog.twinspires.com/2013/02/pletcher-and-derby-better-than-most.html) for anyone wanting to bash Pletcher's Derby record Interesting stats.

But did you just call your own blog post "Essential reading"?

.

[outofthebox]

I only bash his record of getting his horses TO the Derby. 31 seems like a lot, but so many promising horses have been ruined along the way.I agree Cj. Just going over the list of horses he ran in the derby, i would expect a low win %. It's the stock he gets every year and the quality of good horses that never make the race is what is intriguing to me.

[BIG49010]

Like Charlie Whittingham use to say "Horses are like strawberries they go bad overnight!"

[classhandicapper]

Like Charlie Whittingham use to say "Horses are like strawberries they go bad overnight!"

Especially if you don't handle them correctly.

[NTamm1215]

Who could forget Pletcher's epic three year streak of finishing last? If only Bandini had finished behind High Limit in 2005, then he could have made it four. What were the odds of him finishing last in 3 straight years?

What is also glossed over is that Pletcher has a grand total of 3 in the money finishes during the stretch that was highlighted.

I am not of the opinion that the Derby is the "be all, end all" of thoroughbred racing. However, Pletcher has dramatically underperformed with both the horses who made the race and the scores of them who showed promise at one point and never contested it.

[cj]

Who could forget Pletcher's epic three year streak of finishing last? If only Bandini had finished behind High Limit in 2005, then he could have made it four. What were the odds of him finishing last in 3 straight years?

What is also glossed over is that Pletcher has a grand total of 3 in the money finishes during the stretch that was highlighted.

I am not of the opinion that the Derby is the "be all, end all" of thoroughbred racing. However, Pletcher has dramatically underperformed with both the horses who made the race and the scores of them who showed promise at one point and never contested it.

Ever notice his young horses seem to vanish into oblivion after Todd tells a few falsehoods about future plans? Who was the horse from last year that was being pointed to the Donn, then nothing? El Padrino, yeah, that is him.

He did manage to keep Flower Alley together through the BC one year, but that horse came back as a shell of his former self and didn't even have a reported injury.

[nijinski]

A good deal of his horses had potential but were not quite Derby material Try to tell an owner with alot of cash and Derby fever , that their horse is over his head .

[nijinski]

I agree Cj. Just going over the list of horses he ran in the derby, i would expect a low win %. It's the stock he gets every year and the quality of good horses that never make the race is what is intriguing to me.

It's unfortunate , young fast horses get injured , take bad steps and the
more you have , the more setbacks you're going to see .

I don't know how many horses Sid Watters had in his barn back in the day .
He had one that stood out and tore up the track .

Hoist The Flag , he took a very bad step and ended his career , almost his life . I think it's unfortunate for Todd , but relative considering how large his stable is .

[cj]

It's unfortunate , young fast horses get injured , take bad steps and the
more you have , the more setbacks you're going to see .

I don't know how many horses Sid Watters had in his barn back in the day .
He had one that stood out and tore up the track .

Hoist The Flag , he took a very bad step and ended his career , almost his life . I think it's unfortunate for Todd , but relative considering how large his stable is .

I think it goes way beyond just being unfortunate. We are all well aware how large his stable is. He just can't seem to keep a horse together for any length of time.

[ArlJim78]

does Pletcher train any horses older than 3?

[cj]

does Pletcher train any horses older than 3?

Obvious answer...not for long!

[NTamm1215]

Ever notice his young horses seem to vanish into oblivion after Todd tells a few falsehoods about future plans? Who was the horse from last year that was being pointed to the Donn, then nothing? El Padrino, yeah, that is him.

He did manage to keep Flower Alley together through the BC one year, but that horse came back as a shell of his former self and didn't even have a reported injury.

He is 2-49 in Triple Crown races overall. In the last five years, he has had ONE horse win a Grade I as a 2YO and then another as a 3YO while under his care. That was Devil May Care, who unfortunately died of a mysterious liver ailment just months later.

He has had ONE 4YO win a Grade I who won one as a 3YO in the last five years. That was Stay Thirsty, who scored in the Cigar Mile by a desperate nose last November.

In his entire history of training, Pletcher has 3 wins in BC races with horses 3YO and up and only two older horses. The funny thing is one of those horses (Speightstown) wasn't in his care until his 5YO season.

How about some of his impressive 2YO debut winners at Saratoga that ended up completely falling apart? Skylord, Archwarrior, Micromanage, Unabashed, Tap For Luck, Captain Webb, HUnt Crossing, Crazy Party, Curlinello, Summer Laugh, Slamarama, Excited. They all ended up injured or completely ineffective. I excluded Giant Surprise, who ran once and subsequently broke down.

There are a whole pile of them from Gulfstream as well. It's really uncanny. In the last five years at Gulfstream, PLetcher is 32% with a $1.88 ROI in graded stakes races. Everywhere else? A whopping 18% with a $1.51 ROI.

[cj]

He is 2-49 in Triple Crown races overall. In the last five years, he has had ONE horse win a Grade I as a 2YO and then another as a 3YO while under his care. That was Devil May Care, who unfortunately died of a mysterious liver ailment just months later.

He has had ONE 4YO win a Grade I who won one as a 3YO in the last five years. That was Stay Thirsty, who scored in the Cigar Mile by a desperate nose last November.

In his entire history of training, Pletcher has 3 wins in BC races with horses 3YO and up and only two older horses. The funny thing is one of those horses (Speightstown) wasn't in his care until his 5YO season.

How about some of his impressive 2YO debut winners at Saratoga that ended up completely falling apart? Skylord, Archwarrior, Micromanage, Unabashed, Tap For Luck, Captain Webb, HUnt Crossing, Crazy Party, Curlinello, Summer Laugh, Slamarama, Excited. They all ended up injured or completely ineffective. I excluded Giant Surprise, who ran once and subsequently broke down.

There are a whole pile of them from Gulfstream as well. It's really uncanny.

That really is "unfortunate".

[JustRalph]

Good stuff

Amazing to see it in writing.



He is 2-49 in Triple Crown races overall. In the last five years, he has had ONE horse win a Grade I as a 2YO and then another as a 3YO while under his care. That was Devil May Care, who unfortunately died of a mysterious liver ailment just months later.

He has had ONE 4YO win a Grade I who won one as a 3YO in the last five years. That was Stay Thirsty, who scored in the Cigar Mile by a desperate nose last November.

In his entire history of training, Pletcher has 3 wins in BC races with horses 3YO and up and only two older horses. The funny thing is one of those horses (Speightstown) wasn't in his care until his 5YO season.

How about some of his impressive 2YO debut winners at Saratoga that ended up completely falling apart? Skylord, Archwarrior, Micromanage, Unabashed, Tap For Luck, Captain Webb, HUnt Crossing, Crazy Party, Curlinello, Summer Laugh, Slamarama, Excited. They all ended up injured or completely ineffective. I excluded Giant Surprise, who ran once and subsequently broke down.

There are a whole pile of them from Gulfstream as well. It's really uncanny. In the last five years at Gulfstream, PLetcher is 32% with a $1.88 ROI in graded stakes races. Everywhere else? A whopping 18% with a $1.51 ROI.

[nijinski]

He is 2-49 in Triple Crown races overall. In the last five years, he has had ONE horse win a Grade I as a 2YO and then another as a 3YO while under his care. That was Devil May Care, who unfortunately died of a mysterious liver ailment just months later.

He has had ONE 4YO win a Grade I who won one as a 3YO in the last five years. That was Stay Thirsty, who scored in the Cigar Mile by a desperate nose last November.

In his entire history of training, Pletcher has 3 wins in BC races with horses 3YO and up and only two older horses. The funny thing is one of those horses (Speightstown) wasn't in his care until his 5YO season.

How about some of his impressive 2YO debut winners at Saratoga that ended up completely falling apart? Skylord, Archwarrior, Micromanage, Unabashed, Tap For Luck, Captain Webb, HUnt Crossing, Crazy Party, Curlinello, Summer Laugh, Slamarama, Excited. They all ended up injured or completely ineffective. I excluded Giant Surprise, who ran once and subsequently broke down.

There are a whole pile of them from Gulfstream as well. It's really uncanny. In the last five years at Gulfstream, PLetcher is 32% with a $1.88 ROI in graded stakes races. Everywhere else? A whopping 18% with a $1.51 ROI.

Devil May Care was confirmed as having Cancer of the Lymph System .

[precocity]

Devil May Care remember that story strange.

[EJXD2]

Ever notice his young horses seem to vanish into oblivion after Todd tells a few falsehoods about future plans? Who was the horse from last year that was being pointed to the Donn, then nothing? El Padrino, yeah, that is him.

He did manage to keep Flower Alley together through the BC one year, but that horse came back as a shell of his former self and didn't even have a reported injury.

Sorry for the cut & paste, but Thoroughbred Times' content is gone, and the only way to access it is via cached pages, but this is pertinent to CJ's comment:


Breeding industry affects top level of racing Posted: Tuesday, December 05, 2006





Do not expect a Triple Crown winner to race past the Belmont Stakes (G1), said Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher and Hollywood Park Racing Secretary Martin Panza said Tuesday during the University of Arizona Race Track Industry Program's Symposium on Racing and Gaming.

"It'd be great to see a Triple Crown winner, but he wouldn't run after unless he were a gelding," Pletcher said Tuesday during the "Conditions and Conditioners" panel. "That's just the way it is."

"If a horse won the Triple Crown, then how could an owner run him again? He'd be offered $150-million the next day," Panza said. "Why would you run? You can't put a salary cap on the Keeneland sale. There's more money there."

Pletcher said that 2005 Travers Stakes (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup

Classic Powered by Dodge (G1) runner-up Flower Alley lost about 50% of his value when he returned at four and only won the Salvatore Mile Stakes (G3) before finishing unplaced in three Grade 1 races.

"[Flower Alley's owner] Eugene Melnyk is a sportsman and wanted to keep his horse in training, but it didn't work out," Pletcher said. "Flower Alley was worth between $12-million and $14-million after the Breeders' Cup last year, and he was only worth between $6-million and $8-million this year."

Flower Alley will enter stud next year at Three Chimneys, which also stands 2000 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner War Chant. Panza said that trainer Neil Drysdale wanted to run War Chant after the Breeders' Cup in the Hollywood Derby (G1).

"The farm told him no because it would not increase [War Chant's] value if he won," Panza said.

"I know we want to see more starts out of our stars, but I won't tell owners what to do with their horses," Pletcher said. "If they're in a so-called home run situation, then you can't blame them for wanting to make money."

Another aspect of the industry that gets related back to breeders is that most horses make fewer starts at all levels of the sport, but Pletcher was hesitant to attribute that statistic to fragility.

"Horses consistently perform better with more time between races," Pletcher said. "It seemed like a big deal when Invasor (Arg) missed the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), but you could argue that he wouldn't have won the Breeders' Cup [Classic] if he had run too hard in the Gold Cup. There's a perceived fragility issue, but I just think horses run harder now than before to win races."

Pletcher said that he trains 205 horses in three different areas of the country for about 100 owners.—Ed DeRosa

[brivolta]

Not offering an opinion on Pletcher one way or the other. But with 20 horse fields the KY Derby is more or less a crap shoot. To use that race as a bench mark for a trainer's success seems like a bad idea to me.

[BIG49010]

I am not sure how you would attempt to find the statistics, but I am pretty sure that if you reviewed all the horses that achieved a Beyer for lack of another number of say 90 in their maiden debut, that never race again.

I think whatever metric you choose, the faster they run, the more likely they get injured. I think this would apply to Bafford, Lukas, Chad Brown, Zito, you add the name, when it comes to the fastest horses in training it's a tough job.

[classhandicapper]

I am not sure how you would attempt to find the statistics, but I am pretty sure that if you reviewed all the horses that achieved a Beyer for lack of another number of say 90 in their maiden debut, that never race again.

I think whatever metric you choose, the faster they run, the more likely they get injured. I think this would apply to Bafford, Lukas, Chad Brown, Zito, you add the name, when it comes to the fastest horses in training it's a tough job.

Personally, I think it has something to do with how quickly you bring them to their peak.

When they come out running extremely fast Beyers (1st couple of starts), they often go backwards quickly, get hurt, or never make it back to the races.

But if they come out just a little faster than PAR and are running those really faster figures a little later, they seem to do better.

Perhaps getting them too sharp via workouts and then running really hard right out of the box does not give them the foundation they need or perhaps the hard workouts themselves are an incremental problem.

[classhandicapper]

"Horses consistently perform better with more time between races," Pletcher said.



I'm going to disagree with him.

I don't think they run consistently better.

I think they last longer and their performances are more consistent.

I'm going to assume that almost all horses have minor issues. So if you give them more time between races you are giving them a chance to recover from those minor issues that might otherwise snowball into something more serious if you run every two weeks. You see that in professional sports also.

But I'm not entirely sure it's better to rest them from an economic perspective. You are potentially leaving a lot money on the table not running a horse that's sharp and good enough to win now by waiting an extra 3 weeks. He could easily be a horse that will hold up or even thrive with more work and earn a lot more money or get that big Graded win if he ran.

[nijinski]

does Pletcher train any horses older than 3?

C'mon , Where was everyone when English Channel campaigned .

I can't believe such a lousy trainer can rack up as many awards as Pletcher has . :rolleyes:

[NJ Stinks]

Personally, I think it has something to do with how quickly you bring them to their peak.

When they come out running extremely fast Beyers (1st couple of starts), they often go backwards quickly, get hurt, or never make it back to the races.

But if they come out just a little faster than PAR and are running those really faster figures a little later, they seem to do better.

Perhaps getting them too sharp via workouts and then running really hard right out of the box does not give them the foundation they need or perhaps the hard workouts themselves are an incremental problem.

You might want to re-think this, ClassH, because I agree with you. ;)

[turninforhome10]

C'mon , Where was everyone when English Channel campaigned .

I can't believe such a lousy trainer can rack up as many awards as Pletcher has . :rolleyes:
I fondly remember Balto Star who would sizzle in the Derby and go on to win the United Nations.

[nijinski]

I fondly remember Balto Star who would sizzle in the Derby and go on to win the United Nations.

Thank You !

[NTamm1215]

I fondly remember Balto Star who would sizzle in the Derby and go on to win the United Nations.

How could we forget? It was only 10 years ago.

[turninforhome10]

How could we forget? It was only 10 years ago.
Not sure if that was sarcasm, but I remember it for the following reasons:
1) The horse cut ridiculous fractions and while he did fade Monarchos was just 2 ticks off of the fastest Derby
2) The horse would go on as a 4yo to win the Man O war at 11 fur and then at 5 the United Nations. Two races that are key races for stayers
3) The horse was bred to be sprinter being by Glitterman and the damsire Devil's Bag was known for precocious types that most did not see 4 except maybe Devil His Due.
All bashing of Todd Pletcher aside that IMHO was a pretty stout job of training.
The other thing that I will say for Todd are that his clientele as with a great many owners on the Triple Crown today are already deeply invested in these horses as babies and the pressure to perform as a 3yo are squarely on his shoulders. It is a market pressure. Win a big race, make a stallion resume, send them into syndication. Owners are making money on selling seasons and shares. This is a market pressure. Would things be different if the owners did not have to pay 5 figures in insurance every time a 3yo with a proven stallion resume runs to make the crowd happy? The assumed risk of paying 300k for a young horse puts pressure on the trainer to perform. What about all those trainers that we see that they have a nice 2yo and by the time the 3yo races roll around they have 15 starts with no break and breakdown due to greed. See those types too, i.e. Barry Roses horse in the FOY last Saturday.

[cj]

Are we going to count horses from when he was a Lukas assistant too? What the hell, right?

[Tom]

Are we going to count horses from when he was a Lukas assistant too? What the hell, right?

Hmmmm. Did he handle Lady's Secret? :rolleyes:

[cj]

Hmmmm. Did he handle Lady's Secret? :rolleyes:

He did have the one really, super fast older horse that was getting very good, Left Bank.

[Tom]

I remember him - awesome horse!
Huge Beyer at Belmont, if I remember.

[cj]

I remember him - awesome horse!
Huge Beyer at Belmont, if I remember.


...and then he died.

[turninforhome10]

I remember him - awesome horse!
Huge Beyer at Belmont, if I remember.
And beat a nice field in the Whitney. I liked that horse alot. 3k73AXxl3eY

[Tom]

Found him in my db - a 119 and a 121 at Belmont in 01 and 02.

[nijinski]

If we were to start a thread of horses who have had their lives cut short and
left us way to soon , or those with early career ending injuries . It could turn out to be quite lengthy .
Ruffian , Swale , Landaluce , Lost In The Fog , Go For Wand......
Just a few unfortunate heartbreaking examples . My point is Pletcher has had misfortune and bad luck . I hardly think he takes these things lightly and I don't think he deserves to be called a butcher .It is what it is .

I wish they all could celebrate their 30th birthday like Storm Cat . That would be perfect .
Happy Birthday Storm Cat .

Done , I promise not to hijack the thread any further .

[Tom]

Did bad luck find him, or did he being it on through his actions?

[turninforhome10]

Did bad luck find him, or did he being it on through his actions?
Died in October 2002 from complications following colic surgery.

[classhandicapper]

You might want to re-think this, ClassH, because I agree with you. ;)

We can't disagree about everything. That's no fun either. ;)

[Linny]

He did have the one really, super fast older horse that was getting very good, Left Bank.

Yes, and he, like many others, up and died.