Spellbound. Special filly.

[Stillriledup]

3yoF by Bernardini out of a Tale of the Cat mare just won at Santa Anita for FUN. And, she didnt exactly get a great trip, made what would have been classified as a premature move had it not worked out, but she sustained this move in the middle of the track and finished up like a horse who can be any kind for Dick Mandella. She doesnt even have lasix yet. Onward and upward is what i'm thinking.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Just watched the race.Wow!She could have won by 10 but they are teaching her.Jock had to nearly strangle her on the backstretch.

It never gets tiring finding these gems or stumbling onto these gems in play does it?!Good stuff and am glad you posted it my man!:ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Thanks. I watched her replay (her previous win) and was super impressed at the way she leveled out late....today though, she went to another level. Visually, it was stunning, horses who made this move dont usually keep going.

Reminds me a little of Orb's move in his previous (previous to yesterday) win, he made that long wide move and kept going with a long stride. This looked somewhat similar.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks. I watched her replay (her previous win) and was super impressed at the way she leveled out late....today though, she went to another level. Visually, it was stunning, horses who made this move dont usually keep going.

Reminds me a little of Orb's move in his previous (previous to yesterday) win, he made that long wide move and kept going with a long stride. This looked somewhat similar.

Oh boy do I hear ya.The level of restraint alone and to win by that margin shows you that when,and she might not be,in top form,good lord is she going to be a filly to handle!It takes any and one horseplayer to bring a horse to consciousness.I love this specific type of thread.We don't all watch at all times.One man,universal eye,bring it on brother!She looks real good.

[Stillriledup]

Oh boy do I hear ya.The level of restraint alone and to win by that margin shows you that when,and she might not be,in top form,good lord is she going to be a filly to handle!It takes any and one horseplayer to bring a horse to consciousness.I love this specific type of thread.We don't all watch at all times.One man,universal eye,bring it on brother!She looks real good.

Its funny because if you look at her PP line, she won with a 78 Beyer, she looks like a deep closer and whatnut....if you watch the replay, you see something far superior than what she shows on paper. Looks like 'just a horse' on the PPs but on tape, different story.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Its funny because if you look at her PP line, she won with a 78 Beyer, she looks like a deep closer and whatnut....if you watch the replay, you see something far superior than what she shows on paper. Looks like 'just a horse' on the PPs but on tape, different story.

I certainly hope you aren't concerned with the assigned Beyer figure.Your insights and because of your insights "making" me watch the race,we already know she could have run way faster.These are insight gems Stlillriledup,you are responsible for knowledge!We know she can run faster.I love this!Let's call it 78 under restraint!Because thats what it was.You were the guy that brought this filly to attention though.She can pan out to be this or that but you are the dude that brought to attention a potentially great filly.To me,that you saw it and said it is far awesome enough.These type of gals can run 90-95 on a dime.Remember they only need to run as fast as they have to.She could have eaten a lobster roll on the back 9!

[Stillriledup]

I certainly hope you aren't concerned with the assigned Beyer figure.Your insights and because of your insights "making" me watch the race,we already know she could have run way faster.These are insight gems Stlillriledup,you are responsible for knowledge!We know she can run faster.I love this!Let's call it 78 under restraint!Because thats what it was.You were the guy that brought this filly to attention though.She can pan out to be this or that but you are the dude that brought to attention a potentially great filly.To me,that you saw it and said it is far awesome enough.These type of gals can run 90-95 on a dime.Remember they only need to run as fast as they have to.She could have eaten a lobster roll on the back 9!

I know that normally when you (or me!) sees a 78 Beyer, we don't think "future star", that's all i meant by throwing the beyer into my conversation.

How about 78R for short? ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I know that normally when you (or me!) sees a 78 Beyer, we don't think "future star", that's all i meant by throwing the beyer into my conversation.

How about 78R for short? ;)

78R works for me!!HAHAHA!!!

Seriously though.This happens every year.Young horses make big speed jumps.It's a guy like you that notices this and knows the number is false.Or me when I do it etc etc.My what I feel is a giant at hand, I want to convey,which is giant because of you,is that you noticed it and said it!Big boys and girls come along every year.It escapes most of the world til it bashes them across the head.You made this girl happen.I Twinspired the race.She shined.Dude that's awesome!I'd high five you but were on the net!It takes one man to notice.Before the fact.Might got a gem here!I'm a fan.

[pele polo]

Didn't Orb run a 78 in his maiden breaker?

[HPFridays]

Nice looking race that Spellbound put together yesterday. Looked like two runs she put in and relaxed nicely when needed, looked very professional to me. Thanks for pointing this one out, Stillriled up

[classhandicapper]

Nice effort, but it's hard for "me personally" to get too carried away because it's not unusual for a horse to look like they can accelerate under wraps and go on to win with a lot in reserve against weak fields. She's clearly better than that group by more than the winning margin (and it's listed as "driving"), but I'd like to see more. Had she had a huge effort before this, it would be easier to know just how much is in the tank.

[Stillriledup]

Spellbound running today, at Santa Anita in the 5th race.

[woodtoo]

If you like her enough,like I do today's the day.
The bridgejumpers are on the 6.

[Stillriledup]

If you like her enough,like I do today's the day.
The bridgejumpers are on the 6.

Theres SO much money on the other 5 runners to show, that show won't really be 'boxcars' in the conventional sense if she runs out. (when i think boxcars, i think 30, 40 dollar prices and higher)

[cj]

Time to close this thread I guess, unless we want another one like the Jaycito thread.

[Stillriledup]

Time to close this thread I guess, unless we want another one like the Jaycito thread.

She was dull today, she's better than this. Maybe the no Lasix had something to do with it.

[cj]

She came in as 4th fastest filly in the race, and that is how she left.

[Stillriledup]

She came in as 4th fastest filly in the race, and that is how she left.

She was very far back early, to me, thats a sign of a problem, i still think she's very good, i'll be betting her back if she shows up next time as FTL.

[RXB]

She was very far back early, to me, thats a sign of a problem, i still think she's very good, i'll be betting her back if she shows up next time as FTL.

She's always far back early, except last time when the pace was a dawdle. She won a slow maiden race and then won a slow-paced allowance whose 2nd finisher could only manage 4th at the same condition next out.

[v j stauffer]

She came in as 4th fastest filly in the race, and that is how she left.

Extremely sharp post. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

She's always far back early, except last time when the pace was a dawdle. She won a slow maiden race and then won a slow-paced allowance whose 2nd finisher could only manage 4th at the same condition next out.

I don't understand, the 2nd place finisher had the exact same Beyer fig (slow, according to you) and she lost to the best horse in the division by 2 and three quarters. A "slow" 78 Beyer horse ran second in a Grade 1 race. Spellbound ran a 78 and so did Iotapa, but Spellbound didnt fire today for whatever reason, hopefully she's going to be ok and can bounce back next time.

[Stillriledup]

Time to close this thread I guess, unless we want another one like the Jaycito thread.

Funny how you were nowhere to be found when the post was originally put up, seems like a nice redboard after the fact.

Sharp post. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Funny how you were nowhere to be found when the post was originally put up, seems like a nice redboard after the fact.

Sharp post. :ThmbUp:

Yeah, because I never give opinions before hand. You're too funny. This horses is FAR from special. Should I change the title to "Useful filly"?

[v j stauffer]

I don't understand, the 2nd place finisher had the exact same Beyer fig (slow, according to you) and she lost to the best horse in the division by 2 and three quarters. A "slow" 78 Beyer horse ran second in a Grade 1 race. Spellbound ran a 78 and so did Iotapa, but Spellbound didnt fire today for whatever reason, hopefully she's going to be ok and can bounce back next time.

Beyer figures while very influential and helpful for many years are a Chevy Nova compared to Thorograph or Ragozin which are Maserati's.

[Stillriledup]

Beyer figures while very influential and helpful for many years are a Chevy Nova compared to Thorograph or Ragozin which are Maserati's.

Are you saying that the 2nd place finisher's 78 is 'superior' on TG/RAG than Spellbound's 78?

[Stillriledup]

Yeah, because I never give opinions before hand. You're too funny. This horses is FAR from special. Should I change the title to "Useful filly"?

I might be funny, but i have no problem sticking my neck out and voicing an opinion before the fact. You were the first to click on this thead and go 'haha' after she ran a lackluster 4th, but werent around before the race to say she's no good. Its pretty easy after the race, you know? Same with Vic, happy as pie that my 'special' horse flopped and couldnt wait to post in this thread...he probably got carpet burn running to his laptop as soon as they hit the wire. :D

[cj]

I might be funny, but i have no problem sticking my neck out and voicing an opinion before the fact. You were the first to click on this thead and go 'haha' after she ran a lackluster 4th, but werent around before the race to say she's no good. Its pretty easy after the race, you know? Same with Vic, happy as pie that my 'special' horse flopped and couldnt wait to post in this thread...he probably got carpet burn running to his laptop as soon as they hit the wire. :D

Honestly, I thought I had previously commented on this thread. If I hadn't, oh well. She isn't special, and she wasn't before the race, and she isn't after the race. I thought the title was some kind of joke or something.

[v j stauffer]

Are you saying that the 2nd place finisher's 78 is 'superior' on TG/RAG than Spellbound's 78?

I'm saying on Thorograph Spellbound was 4th fastest.

[Stillriledup]

Honestly, I thought I had previously commented on this thread. If I hadn't, oh well. She isn't special, and she wasn't before the race, and she isn't after the race. I thought the title was some kind of joke or something.

But you didnt call it out before the race. Neither did Vic. Either one of you guys could have come in here and said she stinks, isnt special and slow before she ran today, you had ample opportunity....anyone can be a genius after the fact.

[v j stauffer]

I might be funny, but i have no problem sticking my neck out and voicing an opinion before the fact. You were the first to click on this thead and go 'haha' after she ran a lackluster 4th, but werent around before the race to say she's no good. Its pretty easy after the race, you know? Same with Vic, happy as pie that my 'special' horse flopped and couldnt wait to post in this thread...he probably got carpet burn running to his laptop as soon as they hit the wire. :D

Don't be a dolt. I am never happy if someone loses. Especially a fellow PA'er. Sometimes before a huge day I'll glance at TG. Just to get a feel.

[Stillriledup]

I'm saying on Thorograph Spellbound was 4th fastest.

I know they sometimes give a P for slow pace, they might have given her a P last time? Its a tricky read to give a figure for a final time if the pace is very slow and the final quarter is fast.

[Stillriledup]

Don't be a dolt. I am never happy if someone loses. Especially a fellow PA'er. Sometimes before a huge day I'll glance at TG. Just to get a feel.

We value your opinion....im sure PA nation would have loved to see your analysis before she ran today....does us no good after the race is over.

[v j stauffer]

But you didnt call it out before the race. Neither did Vic. Either one of you guys could have come in here and said she stinks, isnt special and slow before she ran today, you had ample opportunity....anyone can be a genius after the fact.

The numbers are the same now as they were this morning. As I said I wasn't handicapping or forming an opinion. Just glancing at the TG number. Settle down Riles. Fire away tomorrow. Hope you knock em dead.

[cj]

But you didnt call it out before the race. Neither did Vic. Either one of you guys could have come in here and said she stinks, isnt special and slow before she ran today, you had ample opportunity....anyone can be a genius after the fact.

I said I thought I did. What should I do now, say 10 Hail Marys and put $100 in the Poor Box? I would have said she wasn't special before the race, but who really cares. If you are going to post bad horses, you are going to get some ribbing. Get over it dude.

[ronsmac]

The arguments on P.A. are awesome. I had a terrible day betting , but always know i can get a chuckle on here.

[speed]

I said I thought I did. What should I do now, say 10 Hail Marys and put $100 in the Poor Box? I would have said she wasn't special before the race, but who really cares. If you are going to post bad horses, you are going to get some ribbing. Get over it dude.
You mentioning $100 reminded me of that clown Casino. :lol:

[bks]

I thought her ability she was somewhere in between the different opinions expressed here. She's been put on the shelf with an injury; no word if that affected her performance in the Oaks.

Spellbound sidelined with bone chip

Spellbound, fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks in her stakes debut April 6, has been sidelined with a bone chip in an ankle, trainer Richard Mandella said.

“We’ll have her back in the fall,” Mandella said. “With time and filling out, she could be a nice filly.”

Owned by the partnership of Claiborne Farm, Ramona Bass, and Adele Dilschneider, Spellbound, by Bernardini, has won 2 of 6 starts and $88,500.

[bks]

Shame about my Oaks advance bet :(

Nice win @ 16-1 :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Shame about my Oaks advance bet :(

Nice win @ 16-1 :)

Well 3 of us thought she was something!Glad you brought this one back to life.

[Stillriledup]

Well 3 of us thought she was something!Glad you brought this one back to life.

Did it at 80% and without lasix. Hopefully bigger and better things down the road.

[raybo]

I'll jump in with the post race red boarding. Here's my post race analysis and a screenshot directly from the RS program, with the results imported to see the payouts. This display is exactly what was presented before the race, the payouts were imported after the results file was available.

The race favored P and S types, with the S types getting the bigger nod. Spellbound was no surprise, as a matter of fact if you didn't have the horse as a win contender you weren't paying much attention, IMO.

http://alldataexcel.freeforums.org/post3599.html#p3599

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure why there is a controversy about this filly.

Her ALW win was better than it looked on paper but not gigantic and she more or less verified that when she finished a decent 4th in the Grade 1 SA Oaks. Beholder was in that field. So it's not like she was supposed to win there, but she didn't disgrace herself either.

Her last race was a bit disappointing, but it was on synthetic and there were already some signs she preferred dirt.

I didn't play her yesterday and I didn't expect her to win, but the fact that she ran well was not a shock. I didn't expect to see a very fast pace or for Fiftyshadesofhay to get squeezed a little at the start. If I did, I would have given her a huge shot.

[cj]

Did it at 80% and without lasix. Hopefully bigger and better things down the road.

80% is hyperbole, no way the horse was at that and won this race.

[GMB@BP]

No one thinks she ran well in the context of evaluating her moving forward I assume?

[classhandicapper]

No one thinks she ran well in the context of evaluating her moving forward I assume?

I think she's good and improving but had help from the pace and other issues in the race yesterday.

[GMB@BP]

I can see the timeforme pace line now, 155 140 110 86

The only usable horse in that race was Ondine.

[cj]

I can see the timeforme pace line now, 155 140 110 86

The only usable horse in that race was Ondine.

Not a bad guess:


SA 01/19/2014 8 163 151 131 112 104

[Thebigguy]

This horse is slow and got a giant pace to run at. I doubt she ever wins another race.

[classhandicapper]

This horse is slow and got a giant pace to run at. I doubt she ever wins another race.

Don't you think that was a tad extreme? ;)

IMO Ondine was best, but Spellbound wasn't that far off Fifteshadesofhay in the SA Oaks previously. The latter had some trouble yesterday, but it wasn't disastrous trouble and she had the same closing trip. So figure even if Fifty is better than Spellboud, it's not by a huge amount. She'll have to improve further to get Grade 1 or 2 win in a honest situation, but I think yesterday's race will eventually get another win for her.

[Thebigguy]

Maybe a tad extreme, she's just not that good though. I agree about Ordine though, as I posted that in the thread talking about the actual race.

[NTamm1215]

Don't you think that was a tad extreme? ;)

IMO Ondine was best, but Spellbound wasn't that far off Fifteshadesofhay in the SA Oaks previously. The latter had some trouble yesterday, but it wasn't disastrous trouble and she had the same closing trip. So figure even if Fifty is better than Spellboud, it's not by a huge amount. She'll have to improve further to get Grade 1 or 2 win in a honest situation, but I think yesterday's race will eventually get another win for her.

Fiftyshadesofhay is not a great benchmark. She is not very good either.

[Stillriledup]

After reading all the posts in this thread from Craig, Vic and This new poster Big Guy, Mandella and his owners might be lucky to get 5k for her at a fire sale. :D

[cj]

Fiftyshadesofhay is not a great benchmark. She is not very good either.

I think she is ok, nothing special, but tailing off.

[classhandicapper]

Fiftyshadesofhay is not a great benchmark. She is not very good either.

Tough crowd. ;)

What's your standard for very good?

She's not a legitimate Grade 1 or serious threat to Beholder.

By that standard they are both not very good.

But Fifty is a Grade 2 winner, Grade 1 placed, and has already run figures near the PAR for middle level older graded stakes fillies even though she just turned 4. She's OK.

[raybo]

What did the TimeformUS Pace Projector show for this race? I bet it doesn't show that the winner had the velocities to be 3rd at the 2nd call, if the horse was asked to do that. The fact that the horse laid so far back early, to a very fast pace, was no accident, nor because she couldn't have run faster early. Everybody seems to think that pace meltdowns are rare, and closers don't win under those circumstances. Very strange postings in this thread by some people who really should know better.

[cj]

What did the TimeformUS Pace Projector show for this race? I bet it doesn't show that the winner had the velocities to be 3rd at the 2nd call, if the horse was asked to do that. The fact that the horse laid so far back early, to a very fast pace, was no accident, nor because she couldn't have run faster early. Everybody seems to think that pace meltdowns are rare, and closers don't win under those circumstances. Very strange postings in this thread by some people who really should know better.

The projector showed her last early, which she was. Pace Projector does not show individual race velocities, there are pace figures and adjusted fractions for that. She had the 3rd fastest last race 2nd call adjusted fraction if you compared those horses that had routed (not the 1).

But it also showed the pace would be moderate, so it wasn't correct on that part. I will say given how the pace turned out, there is basically no chance the winner could have been 3rd at the 2nd call, and if she was she would not have won.

Who thinks closers don't win under meltdowns? That is a new one on me. As for being rare, I guess that depends what percentage you define as rare.

[raybo]

The fact is the pace was contested, not a surprise, and the pace did collapse, again not a surprise, and a closer did win the race (quite likely under the contested pace). Race context is key, and for some to speak so confidently that the winner did not earn the victory, as much so as any other winner might, sounds like sour grapes to me. Throw in that every horse in the race was in peak form cycle in their last race, except the winner, and all took at least somewhat of a layoff, might suggest that some were not ready for the contested pace of this race. Only the 1 and the 6 seemed likely to improve from their layoffs (why did horses in peak form in their last race need layoffs over 30 days?), and those 2 finished 1 and 2 in this one.

I don't think anyone here is saying that the winner is a great horse, after all it was just a G2 race. But for those who think that the horse didn't deserve the win, is a rather biased opinion, as far as I'm concerned. Biased for what reason, because they didn't see what was about to happen possibly? Sour grapes.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think anyone here is saying that the winner is a great horse, after all it was just a G2 race. But for those who think that the horse didn't deserve the win, is a rather biased opinion, as far as I'm concerned. Biased for what reason, because they didn't see what was about to happen possibly? Sour grapes.

I didn't make a play on the race because I thought the odds were reasonably accurate. No sour grapes.

I didn't expect a fast pace. I was wrong about the pace, but now that I was wrong I still have to evaluate what happened to the best of my ability so I don't make a mistake next time. I think she ran OK, but she was not the best horse in the race. If you played her based on the expectation of a fast pace, it was a great pick. If you think she would have won without a fast base, we'll have to agree to disagree.

[cj]

I don't think anyone here is saying that the winner is a great horse, after all it was just a G2 race. But for those who think that the horse didn't deserve the win, is a rather biased opinion, as far as I'm concerned. Biased for what reason, because they didn't see what was about to happen possibly? Sour grapes.

The thread title said the horse was "special". As you indicate, she won a G2, hardly anything special. Yet the thread was brought back to life for some reason, presumably to try to prove the point this win somehow validated that opinion. Those are the people that started this debate anew.

If you ask me, those disagreeing are more correct at this point in time. I'm certainly not saying she didn't deserve the win, or that she was a bad bet. But I also wouldn't say she was the best in the race. She was a contender that happened to catch ideal circumstances and win by a head. If someone was able to handicap that, good for them, but it really has little to do with the thread.

[bks]

If you ask me, those disagreeing are more correct at this point in time. I'm certainly not saying she didn't deserve the win, or that she was a bad bet. But I also wouldn't say she was the best in the race.

I revived the thread because some here (and to a lesser extent, me as well) saw something more in this filly than she had shown. We'll see what she becomes. At cutrent, no, I wouldn't say she is special, but I did like her allowance win quite a bit.

Santa Anita is a burial ground for closers currently. The speed bias distorts all estimates of talent. Winning from 15-20 out of it under any conditions at this track is noteworthy, and I'd be surprised if it happen twice again all meet.

[letswastemoney]

Why is it such a surprise any dirt course favors speed? It's dirt racing! It's supposed to favor speed.

[Thebigguy]

What did the TimeformUS Pace Projector show for this race? I bet it doesn't show that the winner had the velocities to be 3rd at the 2nd call, if the horse was asked to do that. The fact that the horse laid so far back early, to a very fast pace, was no accident, nor because she couldn't have run faster early. Everybody seems to think that pace meltdowns are rare, and closers don't win under those circumstances. Very strange postings in this thread by some people who really should know better.

What race has this plodder ever run that makes you say she had the velocities to be 3rd at the 2nd call? I dont see it, not in her pp's. Unless you're making it up?
I dont know how anyone could watch this race and actually think the winner ran the best race.

[raybo]

What race has this plodder ever run that makes you say she had the velocities to be 3rd at the 2nd call? I dont see it, not in her pp's. Unless you're making it up?
I dont know how anyone could watch this race and actually think the winner ran the best race.

Probably because you're not adjusting fractional times accurately, nor comparing distances correctly. CJ knows it, why don't you? I certainly would not be "making it up", not with CJ in the conversation. :lol:

[bks]

It's excessively speed-favoring even for dirt.

[cj]

By what measure is it more speed favoring than other tracks? Rating on a 0 to 100 scale where 100 means speed wins a lot and 0 means it rarely does, this is what I have for the racing days this year:

SA,01/20/2014,64,41
SA,01/19/2014,22,43
SA,01/18/2014,13,43
SA,01/17/2014,67,41
SA,01/16/2014,33,40
SA,01/12/2014,44,42
SA,01/11/2014,59,44
SA,01/10/2014,22,46
SA,01/09/2014,56,45
SA,01/05/2014,22,46
SA,01/04/2014,87,39
SA,01/03/2014,0,45
SA,01/02/2014,50,48
SA,01/01/2014,41,42

The first number is the actual rating, the second number what was projected that day based on the distance of the races. Looks to me like there are closer days, fair days, and speed days in a pretty good mix. It certainly hasn't been speed biased at a high rate. The 4th was the only day that would meet the considered "Speed+", and there are no "Speed" days.

On the other side, the 18th would be considered as "Closer" and the 3rd as "Closer+". The rest of the days are pretty neutral for a dirt track.

[Stillriledup]

94 Beyer for Spellbound.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This was her 2nd start off a long layoff right?And a few of us thought we saw an inkling of something in an allowance start back then.With all the circumstances I'm not certain this is the ceiling,that's it,caput.And some do.I get that.Personally I want to see the next 3 starts from her before I start to draw any conclusions.

[Stillriledup]

This was her 2nd start off a long layoff right?And a few of us thought we saw an inkling of something in an allowance start back then.With all the circumstances I'm not certain this is the ceiling,that's it,caput.And some do.I get that.Personally I want to see the next 3 starts from her before I start to draw any conclusions.

Some thought the ceiling was the 78 Beyer, but us "dolts" thought different. :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

Some thought the ceiling was the 78 Beyer, but us "dolts" thought different. :D

Yeah post #6 on 2/25/13 "..these gals can run 90-95 on a dime..".It just took a year!

There's still a lot to see,but hey that's the fun part,not the bickering!

[dasch]

What race has this plodder ever run that makes you say she had the velocities to be 3rd at the 2nd call? I dont see it, not in her pp's. Unless you're making it up?
I dont know how anyone could watch this race and actually think the winner ran the best race.


Her last race was her fastest 1/2 mile of her life(adjusted) BUT 1)She only ran another 1/4 and then finished horribly and 2) The trainers interviewed that day publicly stated they felt you needed to be near the lead to win, which would explain why she was closer than "usual".

So if somebody wanted to just look at that number they could make a case for her being close but the experiment obviously failed so there was no way they would make that mistake again.

Her race 3 back when she was fairly close up the runup for 1 mile at Santa Anita is 172ft and the pace(adjusted) that day was very slow.

My 1/2 mile number for the race Saturday was 95(she ran 78)...........her 1/2 mile numbers her last 4 races 90,75,83,80

So "technically" the 90 could have put her 3rd, but LOGICALLY it was never going to happen.

[overthehill]

nice recognition that this filly was something special!

[raybo]

Her last race was her fastest 1/2 mile of her life(adjusted) BUT 1)She only ran another 1/4 and then finished horribly and 2) The trainers interviewed that day publicly stated they felt you needed to be near the lead to win, which would explain why she was closer than "usual".

So if somebody wanted to just look at that number they could make a case for her being close but the experiment obviously failed so there was no way they would make that mistake again.

Her race 3 back when she was fairly close up the runup for 1 mile at Santa Anita is 172ft and the pace(adjusted) that day was very slow.

My 1/2 mile number for the race Saturday was 95(she ran 78)...........her 1/2 mile numbers her last 4 races 90,75,83,80

So "technically" the 90 could have put her 3rd, but LOGICALLY it was never going to happen.

My intent in posting that she could have raced 3rd at the 2nd call was not meant as suggesting that she try to, only that she obviously could have run faster than she did. Early speed increases previous to a rest is one of the signals that I use to determine improvement. As I stated there were only 2 horses likely to improve off their rest periods, the 1 and the 6. They finished 1, 2 in the race. Also, as I stated, when horses who are at the top of their form cycle take rests, I consider that a negative, not a positive, so all the other horses having been at the top of their form cycle, and then getting rest periods, bode poorly for all of them, regarding the win.

[Stillriledup]

nice recognition that this filly was something special!

Thank you OTH, appreciate that.