Incredible occurance at the Big A re Pick 6.

[Stillriledup]

So, heading into the final leg of the Pick 6, the 5 was paying out to 2 tickets, 150k each. The 6 was paying out to ONE winner at about 300k. The 5 gets scratched and the 6 ends up winning as the favorite...so now, the guy who was going to get 300k, ends up sharing the pick 6 with 2 other tickets and the three tickets each pay 100k. And, the horse who won was like 4th betting choice as they loaded in the gate and ended up being a solid favorite at the end.

[Cholly]

It was beyond weird. With 1 mtp, the tote showed the 7 to be the favorite--and the 7 was one of the horses not covered originally who would have created a triple carryover...unless he ended up being the posttime favorite.

I would think there's a pretty good chance that the bettor who originally had the 6 also had a ticket to the 5. That would mean he had two winning tickets worth a hundred grand each. Heck, it might have been Andy Serling--the longest price horse in the sequence was his top pick in Race 9...and he seemed a little tense in the pre race prattle that got interrupted by AF Hennessey collapsing in the paddock; hope the horse is OK, but it didn't look good.

[Stillriledup]

It was beyond weird. With 1 mtp, the tote showed the 7 to be the favorite--and the 7 was one of the horses not covered originally who would have created a triple carryover...unless he ended up being the posttime favorite.

I would think there's a pretty good chance that the bettor who originally had the 6 also had a ticket to the 5. That would mean he had two winning tickets worth a hundred grand each. Heck, it might have been Andy Serling--the longest price horse in the sequence was his top pick in Race 9...and he seemed a little tense in the pre race prattle that got interrupted by AF Hennessey collapsing in the paddock; hope the horse is OK, but it didn't look good.

I was singled to the 6 in all my pick 4s, pick 3s etc so that scratch hurt me, i was going to win anyway and had to share my pick 4 with the masses.

Did the fave collapse in the paddock? I didnt know why he was scratched, that's too bad.

[highnote]

So, heading into the final leg of the Pick 6, the 5 was paying out to 2 tickets, 150k each. The 6 was paying out to ONE winner at about 300k. The 5 gets scratched and the 6 ends up winning as the favorite...so now, the guy who was going to get 300k, ends up sharing the pick 6 with 2 other tickets and the three tickets each pay 100k. And, the horse who won was like 4th betting choice as they loaded in the gate and ended up being a solid favorite at the end.


So is it possible that the people holding the ticket on the 5 thought that the 6 was the second best horse and decided to try to bet the 6 down to the favorite to increase their chances of winning?

[MightBeSosa]

the 6 was supposed to be the chalk after the scratch. the board was totally screwy until the end

[duncan04]

I was singled to the 6 in all my pick 4s, pick 3s etc so that scratch hurt me, i was going to win anyway and had to share my pick 4 with the masses.

Did the fave collapse in the paddock? I didnt know why he was scratched, that's too bad.


The horse flipped and hit his head in the paddock

[Stillriledup]

So is it possible that the people holding the ticket on the 5 thought that the 6 was the second best horse and decided to try to bet the 6 down to the favorite to increase their chances of winning?

That's entirely possible. I've done that before, i've made large win bets on horses that were teetering on favorites status so my scratched Pick 6 would go onto a specific horse.

[Stillriledup]

The horse flipped and hit his head in the paddock

Yikes. Like Cholly said, probably not good. Condolences to the connections.

[cj]

That's entirely possible. I've done that before, i've made large win bets on horses that were teetering on favorites status so my scratched Pick 6 would go onto a specific horse.


I find that very hard to believe.

http://jlee5879.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/pinocchio.jpg

[Stillriledup]

I find that very hard to believe.

http://jlee5879.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/pinocchio.jpg

And why would you say that?

[MightBeSosa]

I find that very hard to believe.






Dont you know, we walk among giants.

[Stillriledup]

Dont you know, we walk among giants.

:lol:

That must be it!

[v j stauffer]

That's entirely possible. I've done that before, i've made large win bets on horses that were teetering on favorites status so my scratched Pick 6 would go onto a specific horse.

NOPE

[highnote]

I find that very hard to believe.

http://jlee5879.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/pinocchio.jpg


I can see it happening.

Imagine that you are part of an insurance company that specializes in insuring the guaranteed pick 6. Let's say the guarantee is $2 million.

Near post time of the first leg you see that the pick 6 is going to be $30k less than $2 million. Your company has to kick in $30k to bring it up to $2 million. So you do a pick 6 batch wager of $30k and your company collects the premium, but is risking $30k.. However, the risk is less than not betting. If the company does not bet they are guaranteed to lose the $30k they have to kick in. If they bet $30k in the pick 6 they might win the bet. Either way, $30k is at risk.

If the pool is over $2 million near post time of the first leg then you do nothing and your company collects the premium.

Now, if it is under $2 million and you bet the pick 6 you are going to try to make a good pick 6 bet because if you win the pick 6 you collect more than your premium and hopefully more than the $30k you had to kick in.

Now let's say you get to the last leg and you have the 5. Then the 5 scratches. The favorite is 7, but you don't think he has a chance. You re-handicap the race and realize 6 is the horse you should bet, but you don't have the 6 and he is not the favorite.

The optimal strategy is to make a large win bet on the 6 to make sure he is the favorite.

I think I got this correct. It's a little confusing.

[v j stauffer]

I can see it happening.

Imagine that you are part of an insurance company that specializes in insuring the guaranteed pick 6. Let's say the guarantee is $2 million.

Near post time of the first leg you see that the pick 6 is going to be $30k less than $2 million. Your company has to kick in $30k to bring it up to $2 million. So you do a pick 6 batch wager of $30k and your company collects the premium, but is risking $30k.. However, the risk is less than not betting. If the company does not bet they are guaranteed to lose the $30k they have to kick in. If they bet $30k in the pick 6 they might. Either way, $30k is at risk.

If the pool is over $2 million near post time of the first leg then you do nothing and your company collects the premium.

Now, if it is under $2 million and you bet the pick 6 you are going to try to make a good pick 6 bet because if you win the pick 6 you collect more than your premium and hopefully more than the $30k you had to kick in.

Now let's say you get to the last leg and you have the 5. Then the 5 scratches. The favorite is 7, but you don't think he has a chance. You re-handicap the race and realize 6 is the horse you should bet, but you don't have the 6 and he is not the favorite.

The optimal strategy is to make a large win bet on the 6 to make sure he is the favorite.

I think I got this correct. It's a little confusing.

You can count on the fingers of one hand how many times in history a guarantee hasn't been met. I remember it happened once in the Magna 5. That's why the payoff was a rounded number like exactly $8000 for 5 of 5. Magna had to put in the precise amount to get to the guarantee. There are never insurance policy's involved. As for manipulating a pool like Riles suggests. I suppose it's possible when playing for very small stakes. It could be cataclysmic though to try it with huge pools involved. Especially lest us not forget the computer program guys always get last dibs and their software jumps square on late holes created by this kind of strategy.

[Stillriledup]

You can count on the fingers of one hand how many times in history a guarantee hasn't been met. I remember it happened once in the Magna 5. That's why the payoff was a rounded number like exactly $8000 for 5 of 5. Magna had to put in the precise amount to get to the guarantee. There are never insurance policy's involved. As for manipulating a pool like Riles suggests. I suppose it's possible when playing for very small stakes. It could be cataclysmic though to try it with huge pools involved. Especially lest us not forget the computer program guys always get last dibs and their software jumps square on late holes created by this kind of strategy.

Im not suggesting manipulation, i was just saying that someone might make a large bet on a horse they want to be the favorite so their scratched horse can land on a runner that THEY help designate as opposed to just letting the public decide randomly who should be favored.

[Robert Fischer]

I was singled to the 6 in all my pick 4s, pick 3s etc so that scratch hurt me, i was going to win anyway and had to share my pick 4 with the masses.

Did the fave collapse in the paddock? I didnt know why he was scratched, that's too bad.

you were the one singled to the $300K ?

am I reading this right?

[Robert Fischer]

That's entirely possible. I've done that before, i've made large win bets on horses that were teetering on favorites status so my scratched Pick 6 would go onto a specific horse.

And you've made large win bets to manipulate favorite status in pick 6's ?

Are you talking major tracks?

[Stillriledup]

you were the one singled to the $300K ?

am I reading this right?

No, i wasnt singled to the 300k.

[Robert Fischer]

No, i wasnt singled to the 300k.

OK sorry, I see that it says pick4 now. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

And you've made large win bets to manipulate favorite status in pick 6's ?

Are you talking major tracks?

I havent made any bets to manipulate pools......i have made large win bets on horses i've liked.....i am allowed to make a large win bet, right?

[OTM Al]

That's entirely possible. I've done that before, i've made large win bets on horses that were teetering on favorites status so my scratched Pick 6 would go onto a specific horse.

I havent made any bets to manipulate pools......i have made large win bets on horses i've liked.....i am allowed to make a large win bet, right?

The hits really keep coming today. Some really interesting claims being made.

[Stillriledup]

The hits really keep coming today. Some really interesting claims being made.

Glad you're finding this thread of educational value! :ThmbUp:

[highnote]

You can count on the fingers of one hand how many times in history a guarantee hasn't been met.

Agree.

There are never insurance policy's involved.

Disagree.

Don't know if companies still guarantee these types of bets. I assume they do. I know for a fact that companies have been hired to insure these large payout bets in case the guarantee is not met. It's called "Prize Insurance Coverage". You can google it.

Here is one: http://www.oddsonpromotions.com/sports/horse-dog-racing/parlays

[OTM Al]

Glad you're finding this thread of educational value! :ThmbUp:

No, I've learned nothing new.

[Stillriledup]

No, I've learned nothing new.

Sorry Al, i'll try and do better next time. ;)

[highnote]

No, I've learned nothing new.

Are you not entertained? :D

[OTM Al]

Sorry Al, i'll try and do better next time. ;)

As Homer Simpson once sagely said "The lesson in this, boy, is don't try"

[Stillriledup]

As Homer Simpson once sagely said "The lesson in this, boy, is don't try"

The teacher just got taught. Thank's AL, i learned something new! :D

[Robert Fischer]

I havent made any bets to manipulate pools......i have made large win bets on horses i've liked.....i am allowed to make a large win bet, right?

wasn't calling foul

nothing wrong IMO with that form of pool manipulation.

If true, congrats on a smart play. :ThmbUp:

[overthehill]

I would like to know what happened to the rail horse in the third race at aqueduct today. the horse seemed home free with the chaser jock whipping but not gaining , then the rail horse seemingly took a bad step , veered towards or into the rail and the jockey grabbed the horse. the racing form chart ignores this event entirely. Does anyone know what really happened?

[Stillriledup]

wasn't calling foul

nothing wrong IMO with that form of pool manipulation.

If true, congrats on a smart play. :ThmbUp:

Thanks. Sorry if i misread what you meant. :)

[cj]

And why would you say that?

Because I don't believe it for a second. But hey, I've been wrong before, and will be again. I just don't think this is one of those times.

[Stillriledup]

I would like to know what happened to the rail horse in the third race at aqueduct today. the horse seemed home free with the chaser jock whipping but not gaining , then the rail horse seemingly took a bad step , veered towards or into the rail and the jockey grabbed the horse. the racing form chart ignores this event entirely. Does anyone know what really happened?

The jock shifted the horse's head to get her to switch leads.....seemed like when she switched leads, she just kind of chucked it and the winner went right on by.

[Stillriledup]

Because I don't believe it for a second. But hey, I've been wrong before, and will be again. I just don't think this is one of those times.

Its all good, i'm not offended, i think it just must mean i'm doing a pretty good job here of acting like a 2 dollar bettor who has a conventional 9 to 5 job. Of course, people who work 9 to 5 arent usually posting at 2am during the week....so, who knows.

Know what i'm saying? ;)

[johnhannibalsmith]

Where is DaHoss90210 when you need him?

[Stillriledup]

Where is DaHoss90210 when you need him?

:lol: :lol: :lol:

WOW, Brilliant!

[v j stauffer]

Agree.



Disagree.

Don't know if companies still guarantee these types of bets. I assume they do. I know for a fact that companies have been hired to insure these large payout bets in case the guarantee is not met. It's called "Prize Insurance Coverage". You can google it.

Here is one: http://www.oddsonpromotions.com/sports/horse-dog-racing/parlays

What you're talking about is if some guy makes a half court hook shot at halftime of a Lakers game. Teams will buy a policy on something like that. Tracks do not buy insurance policy's for non reached carry overs. The website you posted has Zero to do with anything related to well.....anything.

[bob60566]

Have A guess in who is most influential in intiating a carryover in the P6 at the major tracks.

[Stillriledup]

What you're talking about is if some guy makes a half court hook shot at halftime of a Lakers game. Teams will buy a policy on something like that. Tracks do not buy insurance policy's for non reached carry overs. The website you posted has Zero to do with anything related to well.....anything.

The way the Lakers are going, if someone makes a shot at halftime, its likely they'll be walking out with a contract to play for the Lakers!, no insurance necessary! Now the Clippers....well, that's a different story. ;)

[iceknight]

you were the one singled to the $300K ?

am I reading this right? He says he was playing the pick 4's and pick 3's.. but the 6 becoming the favorite lowered his payout.
He did nt play the pick 6 bet so that 300k does not involve him

[Stillriledup]

He says he was playing the pick 4's and pick 3's.. but the 6 becoming the favorite lowered his payout.
He did nt play the pick 6 bet so that 300k does not involve him

Thanks Ice.

I did play the pick 6, but got knocked out in leg 5. I had singled the winner in leg 6 and my conso payout got knocked lower because of the scratch and the pick 4's were much lower too.

[v j stauffer]

The way the Lakers are going, if someone makes a shot at halftime, its likely they'll be walking out with a contract to play for the Lakers!, no insurance necessary! Now the Clippers....well, that's a different story. ;)

Could be right. Sad new about Dr. Buss tonight. He seemed like one of the good guys.

As for the Clips. Unless Mr. Griffin can create his own shot from the low post when they walk it up, semi-consistently make a mid range jumper and improve his FT %. It doesn't matter if they win 60 or more. They'll be gone early from the playoffs.

[Stillriledup]

I would like to know what happened to the rail horse in the third race at aqueduct today. the horse seemed home free with the chaser jock whipping but not gaining , then the rail horse seemingly took a bad step , veered towards or into the rail and the jockey grabbed the horse. the racing form chart ignores this event entirely. Does anyone know what really happened?

Just watched the head on of this race again, seemed like your filly was seeing things on the track, when she switched leads the first time, she might have stepped in a soft spot on the track and lost her footing briefly...than, late in the stretch, she jumped tire tracks.

[Stillriledup]

Could be right. Sad new about Dr. Buss tonight. He seemed like one of the good guys.

As for the Clips. Unless Mr. Griffin can create his own shot from the low post when they walk it up, semi-consistently make a mid range jumper and improve his FT %. It doesn't matter if they win 60 or more. They'll be gone early from the playoffs.

Yes, sad news in Lakerville no doubt.

I think that the Clips will be fine in the first round even if BG can't create, remember last season the Clips beat a tough and experienced Grizzly team and won games in Nashville which is a super hard place to win. They were dead tired in their series vs SA who was rested, it didnt work out well for them....they're a much more polished team this year. You also have to remember that CP3, Blake, Caron and Bled were injured in that second round last year and in fact, they were banged up in the first round and still won, despite a lack of experience.

Now, you have 2nd year CP3, you'll have (hopefully) a healthy Chauncey. You have a much better 2nd unit with Matt Barnes and J Crossover and a much improved Deandre Jordan. Last year, not only could DJ not make an actual shot (other than a rare FT make and a dunk) now he's got a little bit of a post move game....he's no Tim Duncan, but he's actually posting guys up on occasion and making little hook shots. They need DJ and Blake to improve the FTs no doubt, i agree with you there.

To my eye, the Clippers and Heat are the 2 best teams in the NBA, the Thunder and Spurs are 3rd and 4th.....i know CJ is a big Thunder fan and he's going to jump on me for this, but the Thunder might be built more for the regular season right now than the playoffs....for his sake i hope i'm wrong i'd love to see someone other than Lebron win again, but i think the NBA west finals will come down to Clips and Thunder to see who faces the Heat in the finals.

I think it all depends on who's guarding Blake and if they have to double team him...remember, the Clippers are stacked with 3 pt shooters...its going to be really hard to double Blake, he's going to be one on one with someone down there so the team they're playing better have someone athletic enough to guard him...ought to be fun!

[v j stauffer]

Yes, sad news in Lakerville no doubt.

I think that the Clips will be fine in the first round even if BG can't create, remember last season the Clips beat a tough and experienced Grizzly team and won games in Nashville which is a super hard place to win. They were dead tired in their series vs SA who was rested, it didnt work out well for them....they're a much more polished team this year. You also have to remember that CP3, Blake, Caron and Bled were injured in that second round last year and in fact, they were banged up in the first round and still won, despite a lack of experience.

Now, you have 2nd year CP3, you'll have (hopefully) a healthy Chauncey. You have a much better 2nd unit with Matt Barnes and J Crossover and a much improved Deandre Jordan. Last year, not only could DJ not make an actual shot (other than a rare FT make and a dunk) now he's got a little bit of a post move game....he's no Tim Duncan, but he's actually posting guys up on occasion and making little hook shots. They need DJ and Blake to improve the FTs no doubt, i agree with you there.

To my eye, the Clippers and Heat are the 2 best teams in the NBA, the Thunder and Spurs are 3rd and 4th.....i know CJ is a big Thunder fan and he's going to jump on me for this, but the Thunder might be built more for the regular season right now than the playoffs....for his sake i hope i'm wrong i'd love to see someone other than Lebron win again, but i think the NBA west finals will come down to Clips and Thunder to see who faces the Heat in the finals.

I think it all depends on who's guarding Blake and if they have to double team him...remember, the Clippers are stacked with 3 pt shooters...its going to be really hard to double Blake, he's going to be one on one with someone down there so the team they're playing better have someone athletic enough to guard him...ought to be fun!

Excellent work Riles. For your sake I hope you're correct. I do think the HEAT, as long as LeBron is healthy, will be nearly impossible to beat.

[overthehill]

thanks i thought perhaps the horse stumbled. i have not seen this ever.

[Ernie Dahlman]

So is it possible that the people holding the ticket on the 5 thought that the 6 was the second best horse and decided to try to bet the 6 down to the favorite to increase their chances of winning?

There is no way to know how much you have to bet to make a horse go off the favorite, someone else might want another horse to be favored.

[cj]

There is no way to know how much you have to bet to make a horse go off the favorite, someone else might want another horse to be favored.

Which is exactly why I posted my picture to the original assertion. It was beyond silly.

[the little guy]

There is no way to know how much you have to bet to make a horse go off the favorite, someone else might want another horse to be favored.

You must really be bored to be responding to lunacy of that kind.

[The Judge]

Can you imagine it's entirely possible that the guy who had the only 6 on his ticket also had the 5 so when the 5 scratched he had the 6 twice. In this case it would be a good outcome but what if the 6 lost he would have had one horse (#6 ) two times rather then having 2 horses running for his money in the final leg.

Live tickets in the pick 6 should never be known until after the last race by anyone at the track, and alternate horses should be chosen by bettors in every leg of the pick 6.

[acorn54]

Can you imagine it's entirely possible that the guy who had the only 6 on his ticket also had the 5 so when the 5 scratched he had the 6 twice. In this case it would be a good outcome but what if the 6 lost he would have had one horse (#6 ) two times rather then having 2 horses running for his money in the final leg.

Live tickets in the pick 6 should never be known until after the last race by anyone at the track, and alternate horses should be chosen by bettors in every leg of the pick 6.

that would make too much sense for the powers-that-be in the horse racing industry

[Cholly]

Good news about AF Hennessey—according to The Post (http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/horse_racing/through_the_binocs_vy2RO4Is3NqyvmtaQWAxNO), after being knocked unconscious for a few minutes, after treatment he came to and walked out on his own power.

Monday’s buy-in of $333K seemed light; usually a carry-over of $110K will bring in 500+ at NYRA tracks. I wouldn’t have thought the HailMary-6 at GP would cannibalize real Pick6 players at NYRA, but maybe the sharps have figured out that even with the 52% “removal”, they can still make money by hammering logical tickets multiple times.

btw…any reports of Andy Serling being seen out on the town quaffing Dom Perignon last night?

[Ernie Dahlman]

You must really be bored to be responding to lunacy of that kind.

It's nice to get a response from both you and CJ. I thought you both had me on ignore.

[the little guy]

It's nice to get a response from both you and CJ. I thought you both had me on ignore.

I only ignore people that make idiotic claims about my tone on the air, and how it shows me to be alive in Pick-6s, and then bought champagne around town to celebrate the big score.....i.e. ridiculous dopes.

[Ernie Dahlman]

I only ignore people that make idiotic claims about my tone on the air, and how it shows me to be alive in Pick-6s, and then bought champagne around town to celebrate the big score.....i.e. ridiculous dopes.

I used to bet at Suffolk OTB. A few times there was only one winner in the pick 6 and it was bet at Suffolk OTB. The next day I'd have people congratulating me for having the only winning ticket. Harvey Pack had said (on his show), "the winning ticket was bet at Suffolk OTB. I guess we all know who had it." It was never me.

[Vinman]

I used to bet at Suffolk OTB. A few times there was only one winner in the pick 6 and it was bet at Suffolk OTB. The next day I'd have people congratulating me for having the only winning ticket. Harvey Pack had said (on his show), "the winning ticket was bet at Suffolk OTB. I guess we all know who had it." It was never me.

Ernie...would love to hear your opinion on the dime Rainbow 6 at GP, with the carryover now in excess of 3MM. Do you plan on playing it on closing day? Any other day? Do you think that NYRA should introduce a similar "Jackpot" wager?

Vinman

[Ernie Dahlman]

I haven't played it but I'm sure I'll play it on closing day, if it's carried over. As for NYRA I think they should look into anything that might stimulate interest. It seems to me that they've been going in the wrong direction and they need to put people in charge that know something about gaming.

[Cholly]

I only ignore people that make idiotic claims about my tone on the air, and how it shows me to be alive in Pick-6s, and then bought champagne around town to celebrate the big score.....i.e. ridiculous dopes.

damn, I was hoping he had hit it, esp. after he called out the big price horse.

For those of us exiled to following via the internet, Mr. Serling’s commentary makes the race day immensely more interesting and entertaining than it otherwise would be. A thousand others & me would’ve thought it terrific if he’d been the guy dragging down a hundred gee (or two) yesterday.

[the little guy]

damn, I was hoping he had hit it, esp. after he called out the big price horse.

For those of us exiled to following via the internet, Mr. Serling’s commentary makes the race day immensely more interesting and entertaining than it otherwise would be. A thousand others & me would’ve thought it terrific if he’d been the guy dragging down a hundred gee (or two) yesterday.

There's a disconnect here...or is it just me?

But, thanks. I wish I had hit it as well. But, I didn't play it.

[rrpic6]

That's entirely possible. I've done that before, i've made large win bets on horses that were teetering on favorites status so my scratched Pick 6 would go onto a specific horse.

Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper just to pay off the other jockeys? Then you hit the pick 6 and tip them well.

RR

[Stillriledup]

Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper just to pay off the other jockeys? Then you hit the pick 6 and tip them well.

RR

Funny! If you ever forget how to pick winners, you can always make money as a stand up comic! :D