Morning line handicappers

[redeye007]

Would anyone agree with me when I say that morning line handicappers, the odds makers, are very responsible for the decline of high payoff prices that modern computer pace handicappers used to enjoy on a regular basis? In my opinion I believe that the reason for this is that these folks are using the same commercial files that the players use to generate their morning line thus robbing pace handicappers of the overlays they so often enjoyed. Some of these guys are so lazy and incompetant that I have seen a 10 horse field with 8 runners separated by no more that 1 point. In particular someone, and I won't mention his name, on the west coast needs to retire!

[therussmeister]

Maybe it's because in my 27 of betting I've never once looked at a morning line, that I refuse to believe that morning lines have that much influence on final odds.

[Dave Schwartz]

I would be amazed if that had much of a contribution to the changes we have seen in recent years.

Sorry.

[JJMartin]

If people use the M/L to bet, then the M/L affects the final odds. The M/L is supposed to predict what the final betting order will be anyways. Since the M/L can be wrong a lot, you should be able to use this as an advantage by betting on your selection while everyone else is misdirected to the M/L loser.

[mountainman]

It's become harder to make an accurate line since certain unpredictable parties began to dictate (and manipulate) the odds. Consequently, beating my home track now requires more than good handicapping and a keen sense of value-the player must also see tote corrections coming.

[HUSKER55]

that is why I make my own....except when I go to da mountain. I like to sip on a good drinki while I play. When I lose, I need an excuse so I blame it on mark and nancy and pour myself another! :D :D medicinal purposes...I need consoling...:D

[raybo]

Someone with a database could probably answer your question really fast and really accurately, just compare the M/L with final odds and the win % for each.

The draw down for most of us is due to technology placing most of the money in the pools after we have bet.

[PhantomOnTour]

It's a job i wouldn't want

[pandy]

Would anyone agree with me when I say that morning line handicappers, the odds makers, are very responsible for the decline of high payoff prices that modern computer pace handicappers used to enjoy on a regular basis? In my opinion I believe that the reason for this is that these folks are using the same commercial files that the players use to generate their morning line thus robbing pace handicappers of the overlays they so often enjoyed. Some of these guys are so lazy and incompetant that I have seen a 10 horse field with 8 runners separated by no more that 1 point. In particular someone, and I won't mention his name, on the west coast needs to retire!


I'm not sure what you mean. You say that the ML is robbing you of good payoffs but that the line maker is incompetent. If the line is robbing you then wouldn't that mean that the line is good? A bad line would work in your favor, wouldn't it?

[lamboguy]

if you are a real horse player, what difference does it make what the morning line is?

the odds on the board with 10 seconds to post don't mean that much these days. i had one yesterday in Parx that went in the gate @ 9-1 got the lead and paid $32.00. i had to have my wife feel my forehead to make sure i wasn't suffering from an acute disease!

[burnsy]

if you are a real horse player, what difference does it make what the morning line is?

Agreed, real horseplayers know that the line is determined by bettors not the guy writing the day before. It goes on the toteboard and is open to the last second. The morning line is an opinion, a real horseplayer has his own opinion. Your job is determining fair prices on all the entries. The morning line is worthless once the race goes to the toteboard. If you can't determine your own line, how do you find those overlays to begin with?

[pandy]

I posted about this before. I did the morning line at a couple of New York tracks a few times years ago, filling in. It's not always what think. For instance, one day they were drawing 3 days in advance and they wanted me to put a morning line on all 3 days, all off of proofs. The last day I had to use nothing but the entries, no past performances. This is still done at some tracks and that's why you will see some days where the morning line is way off.

The bottom line is, most tracks don't take the morning line that seriously.

[Magister Ludi]

http://www.aqha.com/Racing/Content-Pages/Racing-and-Wagering/Q-Racing-Aces-and-Handicapping-Information/The-Morning-Line.aspx

[Speed Figure]

I posted about this before. I did the morning line at a couple of New York tracks a few times years ago, filling in. It's not always what think. For instance, one day they were drawing 3 days in advance and they wanted me to put a morning line on all 3 days, all off of proofs. The last day I had to use nothing but the entries, no past performances. This is still done at some tracks and that's why you will see some days where the morning line is way off.

The bottom line is, most tracks don't take the morning line that seriously.
If they don't take it serious, why have it at all? I think racing would be better without it.

[raybo]

If they don't take it serious, why have it at all? I think racing would be better without it.

I tend to agree, just put the horses on the track and let them race. Don't try to guess at what the betting will be, let each player decide his bets strictly on his own skills. I don't even believe in tip sheets, I think they are a scourge, generally. The ability to purchase someone else's opinion makes it way too easy to get lazy and stay a losing player. If you're trusting someone to give you the winner, you're probably not learning anything.

[Speed Figure]

I believe a player would get much better prices on pick bets without the morning line. I'm talking pick 4, pick 5 etc. I also believe that the morning line plays a big part is which horse people single.

[1st time lasix]

I agree that the ML has more of an influence in pick fours and pick fives. Superficial handicapping uses ml numbers, brisnet picks and DRF handicapper's selections. I have found there is nothing better than getting three or four overlays relative to the Ml odds in a multi-race sequence---signer! :ThmbUp:

[mountainman]

I posted about this before. I did the morning line at a couple of New York tracks a few times years ago, filling in. It's not always what think. For instance, one day they were drawing 3 days in advance and they wanted me to put a morning line on all 3 days, all off of proofs. The last day I had to use nothing but the entries, no past performances. This is still done at some tracks and that's why you will see some days where the morning line is way off.

The bottom line is, most tracks don't take the morning line that seriously.

Informed post. For the sake of expediency, I've made lots of lines from the sort of skeletal proofs you refer to, and the result is usually less accurate than when working from the racing form. Bottom line: the beyers get bet.

[thespaah]

If the line maker is in fact using similar programs the handicappers are using to create the ML then would it not be assumed that if an entry was being bet far off the line to be truly out of whack?
For example. Let's say the ML on a particular horse is 12-1. Assuming the line maker used some very good handicapping software to arrive at that figure. Now let's say 3/4's the way through the betting period that particular horse is at 4-1. Would it not be safe to say this horse has been over bet and can be a toss?
Assuming the handicapping program used is dead balls accurate?