Race 6 at Laurel Park Feb 15th.

[Stillriledup]

So there's a Dane Kobiske horse in the race hovering at about 4-5 odds with 1 or 2 MTP.....someone pushes a large bet thru the windows to win right at the end, makes Kobiske 1-5....ONE TO FIVE. Now, the horse looked good on paper, but not 1-5 good.

So, they're off and the fave gets the lead and feels a challenge from a 40-1 no hoper into the stretch...the 1-5 sprints away and the longshot ducks in behind the leader who's pulling away under a hand ride....and at this point, if you bet this bomb, you're thinking....."hang on for 2nd" and somehow, like an optical illusion, the favorite hits the wall of china in the last dying strides and this 40-1 shots tags him right on the stripe....

If there was betting on this race with 70 yards to go at Betfair (and there might have been lol), someone might have risked 100k to win a dollar and this horse got beat.

The 40-1 winner had 4 lifetime starts and had 4 beyer figs: 33, 35, 29 and 27. The Kobiske Favorite also had 4 lifetime starts, his Beyers were: 51, 58, 68 and 73. Also those were 2 year old Beyers and this was Banner Boy's first start at 3.

I'm not sure how a 27 Beyer horse can run past a 73 Beyer horse, but i guess there's a first time for everything. You gotta be scratching your head if you were the one who plopped a big win bet on this Banner Boy horse, i almost feel bad for the fella. :lol:

[cj]

You really think Beyers earned at 5.5f matter much in a 7f race?

Here is a different perspective. They both ran at 5.5f last race. These are the figures I have after a 1/4 and at the finish:

6 (the fave): 67, 63
5 (the bomb): 34, 47

Which one is more likely to run better going longer?

I'm far from saying the 5 was a lock, or even a likely winner. But blindly just looking at figures with no regard to the circumstances under which they were owned will get you a quick trip to the ATM.

[Stillriledup]

You really think Beyers earned at 5.5f matter much in a 7f race?

Here is a different perspective. They both ran at 5.5f last race. These are the figures I have after a 1/4 and at the finish:

6 (the fave): 67, 63
5 (the bomb): 34, 47

Which one is more likely to run better going longer?

I'm far from saying the 5 was a lock, or even a likely winner. But blindly just looking at figures with no regard to the circumstances under which they were owned will get you a quick trip to the ATM.


No doubt, pace matters a lot, the horse's PACE ADVANTAGE is certainly a major factor in how he acquires his number. I was just thinking that i dont see too many 30s horses beating 70s horses...sure, it happens and you're right, if you just blindly bet the final number, its going to be a long walk to the ATM.