Best Recent Race Question

[BetHorses!]

If the last 3 final times of a pacer look like this
(All races at same track and distance as today)

1:54 +2 variant
1:54 2/5 -5
1:55 -1



Which is the fastest race? (lets not include ground loss, pp, etc) The fractions say the 1:54 but the variant says the 1:54 2/5 race

My question is can/should you apply the variant to the individual 1/4 fractions?

[trying2win]

Bethorses,

Good questions. SQ, Melman, Exactaman, Baseball, Joe G, Pandy etc. probably have have more experience and knowledge on how to deal with these handicapping areas than I have. So if you're
patient, hopefully one or more of them will be posting some advice here shortly.

T2W

[perfectpacer]

I'm not one of the handicappers mentioned, but if you advised how the variants were determined. I might offer some advice about how to apply them to individual quarter times.

[BetHorses!]

Perfectpacer

The variants that appear in Sporte Eye, I'm not even sure how they are determined, all I know is a -5 means 5 fifths slow

P.S. I like your quote at the bottom...very true

You can win a race but you can't win at the races

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by BetHorses!


You can win a race but you can't win at the races

BLASPHEMER! hehe

different programs may differ, ie for tm -5 would be 1 second fast.

generally speaking, you should adjust the fractions. the problem is that the fractions may need to be adjusted in different preportions. on one night all the first quarters may be very fast and the third quarters very slow, etc. etc. if you don't know the pattern for a particular night, your adjustment may do more harm than good. i follow these patterns and find that i understand the action enough, i don't need to make the adjustment directly.

[sq764]

And from the other side of the coin, I ignore variants..

Just not any benefit to me.. (to me, that is, maybe benefit to others)..

[BetHorses!]

Originally posted by sq764
And from the other side of the coin, I ignore variants..

Just not any benefit to me.. (to me, that is, maybe benefit to others)..

Sq

Lately I've been ignoring the variants too and only factoring in ground loss on the turns and the results have been very good. I am starting to think you and I have something?

Do you take the fastest most recent race? I use the best of last 4 ...do not use q's

[sq764]

99% of the time, i use the best race in the last 3.

What's great about using fractional analysis is that it's one of the few edges 'we' have anymore.

To half the harness bettors, they may see a horse's last 3 races as:

1:54 with 28.2 last quarter
1:53.2 with 28.3 last quarter
1:54.1 with 27.2 last qurter

Now which one of those is half the public going to be impressed with?

What if I told you in those same races, the horse in question went:

58.2 raw last half
57 raw last half
55.2 raw last half

NOW I have my advantage... :-)

[JoeG]

The quick answer to your questioin is that both ways work... I have tried both ways and raw fractions are best when there are few pacelines used from other tracks. Adjusted fractions are good for the other cases.

I use adjusted fractions and take the best paceline in the past 21 days. I did an analysis of a few thousand races and found 18-22 days as the best cutoff (depending on the track).

My fractions are adjusted using the varient, post-position and parked adjustments. Like Scott I like fractions such as the last half, which most people don't take into account. But I believe using either raw fractions or adjusted fractions puts us ahead of the game.

Some examples from last night. First the big one at Woodbine race 4 that bth Melman and I keyed:


Num Name ML PTrk Lst3 Mid Late
2 SPARKLE IRONSTONE 10 LEB 84.2 56.6 55.4
3 YE RULE N 12 WDB 84.9 56.6 56.3
4 BUENAVISTA HANOVER 6 WDB 85.2 56.1 56.8
7 STARDATE HALL 6 WDB 86.6 56.7 57.8
6 ODDS ON HANNAH 4.5 WDB 86.9 56.9 57.8
1 STORMIN KWIK 12 WDB 87.8 59.1 58.6
5 COOCHIE MAMA 3 YR 88.3 57.8 59.3
8 JATES BEST 3.5 MOH 88.7 58.6 59.6
9 OK CORRAL HANOVER 6 WDB 88.7 59.1 59.4



Notice #2 has the best last half Late and best Last 3 quarters times. Results:


2-Sparkle Ironstone 64.80 12.20 6.90 39906
4-Buenavista Hanover 3.90 5.00 15899
8-Jates Best 2.40 3.00 7185


I also played 4 "locks" where the horses had large advantages over the others in the 3/4 and Last half times (gave 'em out in the warroom. 3 winners and one second place. Bet $8 to win and Returned $18.60.

I'll try and post some plays tonight if I find them.

Joe G

[Tom]

How do you adjust track to track? The USTA speed chart seems way out of wack for some tracks. Pandy has his own list on his webpage. Do you use the USTA or your own research?

Thanks, Joe.

[JoeG]

I have a "score" for each track based on some calculations I keep. I haven't updated them since last summer but they seem to hold fairly well. I combine the track varient and race varients to get a varient that adjusts all 4 fractions, then I adjust each fraction based on parked/trouble and adjust the first fraction based on post-position.

I have a post-position chart for each track and use it to adjust the first fraction. I update these charts each month.

The biggest problem is with tracks that don't have lengths back for all for calls. some tracks don't list the lengths back until the stretch call and they affect the fraction. My files list where the paceline came from and I can see at a glance if the track they came from will give true fractions.

[sq764]

You know, 2 years ago, I tried to adjust track to track for the life of me. I actually charted 50 races (10 per class) at 4 different tracks to compare. I then made the adjustments for shippers..

I found one consistent result:

Horses did not race according to their adjustments! :-)

It is such an inexact science, and there are so many other variables, it's not funny.

For instance, if you get a Maywood shipper coming into Balmoral. Let's say the adjustment is 3 seconds. The horse raced at Maywood last out in 1:57.2

Now, the variable.. Let's say the horse is a big horse and cannot handle the 1/2 mile turns very well. And tonight, at Balmoral, he gets to straighten out down the lane and explode.. He may go in 1:52 flat..

So, my point is, while adjustment is good, I wouldn't put too much weight on it..

[cj]

I dabbled with this many years ago. What sq says is right, but it doesn't make the adjustment wrong. It just means the horse can't handle 1/2 milers.

If you were making a type of speed figure, you would just have to decide if the figure could be duplicated at a different track. It doesn't mean it is wrong.

Easy Goer used to hang up monstrous figures at Belmont that he couldn't duplicate anywhere else. It didn't mean the figs were wrong. He was just better suited to the big sweeping turns.

I found the same true between Freehold and the Big M. Some could go back and forth, but most preferred one big time over the others.

[sq764]

Very well put.. To go with your thought, a more accurate statement from me would be to say that the adjustments may be statistically correct, but not worthwhile in your handicapping factors.

I find the variants and adjustments from track to track overall (for me) are really no advantage (meaning handicapping with them and without them typically results in the same horses), so I just ignore them.

[Tom]

TrackMaster gives each horse a speed rating.
Has anyone tried using those to make adjsutments?
Say A paces in 155.4 and earns an 85
and B paces in 156.4 and earns an 85

To adjust A to B, make A's race "fast" 5 and adjust the time to 156.4 and then somehow distribute those 5 adjustment points over the quarters?

I will try this tonight at the Big M and see what happens.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by Tom
TrackMaster gives each horse a speed rating.
Has anyone tried using those to make adjsutments?
Say A paces in 155.4 and earns an 85
and B paces in 156.4 and earns an 85

To adjust A to B, make A's race "fast" 5 and adjust the time to 156.4 and then somehow distribute those 5 adjustment points over the quarters?

I will try this tonight at the Big M and see what happens.

just keep in mind they adjust the speed rating for post position now... it seems like not more than a point or two maximum. by the way they also show the variant at right next to the comment.

[BetHorses!]

Originally posted by JoeG@HSH
I use adjusted fractions and take the best paceline in the past 21 days. I did an analysis of a few thousand races and found 18-22 days as the best cutoff (depending on the track).



This is an interesting analysis. Was the Meadowlands included in that 18-22 day cutoff? And if the best line was 23 days ago you have enough discipline to use another race? Another question, what if a horse ran an average race 1 week ago and prior to that he was off for 30 days but his races prior to his layoff was better, you still take his line from his 1st race back??

[JoeG]

I have everything automated so that I that the trackmaster file and import it thru MS Access to generate the numbers. It takes about 20-30 seconds for each race card and then I copy the data to excel

Because of this I use NO discretion. I have a 21 day cutoff for all tracks set-up in Access and then numbers come out automatically. Yes I do miss the horse that had one bad race in the last 21 days and good ones prior to that but I've found that selecting lines was a long process and I made alot of excuses for some horses lines.

[sq764]

Wow, my sheet is automated using Trackmaster exe files as well and I use a 23 day cutoff.. No if/ands or buts..

Sounds like we are all pretty close to the same cutoff..

[trying2win]

Excellent comments and info on this thread.

One question. Unless a horse is racing on the same circuit, I generally will not bet a shipper on the first start at the new track.
Does anyone else usually subscribe to this theory?

I know I have made exceptions in the past. I remember betting on some shippers from Stampede Park on their first start at Fraser Downs years ago. The situation was, that it was right at the start of Fraser Downs fall harness meet, and the local horses there hadn't started for a few weeks from the end of a previous B.C. meet at another track. Meanwhile some of the shippers from Stampede Park had just raced a lot more recently. I guess the locals at Fraser Downs were leery of the shippers at the start of their meet, because I remember hitting the odd good win price this way (which went against my usual theories about shippers on their first start). After about a week or two, most of the local Fraser Downs horses had a start, so I shelved this shipper angle.

T2W

[trying2win]

Oops! I just remembered something. If a shipper is going from let's say a major harness track like Woodbine or Mohawk to a minor Ontario track, or The Big M to Freehold, I would have to be naive to automatically cross off this kind of shipper. Especially if the horse has demonstrated some decent form in higher class in recent races.

T2W

[sq764]

Along those lines though (horse shipping from bigtime track to smaller one), be careful of them being WAY overbet

[Tom]

Originally posted by Exactaman
just keep in mind they adjust the speed rating for post position now... it seems like not more than a point or two maximum. by the way they also show the variant at right next to the comment.

OK with the variant....how is it set up?
TM variant is 5....does this mean fast 5 fifths or slow 5 fifths?

[trying2win]

Joe G and Melman,

Congratulations to both of you, for cashing in on that big $64.80 win price on Sparkle Ironstone in the 4th at Woodbine on Fri. Feb. 6. By the criteria I go by, I couldn't find anything worth betting in that particular race myself.

T2W

[Exactaman]

tm 5 means slow 5 fifths.

[Tom]

I downloaded TM charts for Med going back to Jan 2'04 si I can start tracking the track profile and also look at races compared to Pandy's Par Times table and his Med variants/hot paces/hot race listing. What I didn't expect was that they have a pace figure for each horse for each quarter as well as the speed rating.
Looking at a few of these after the fact for last night's card, they look interesting enough to do some serious research into their long term use.
I was curious if anyone was using these pace numbers or had in the past? And I also an curioius why they don't appear in the TM PPs?
I am going to try to find out from TM.

[melman]

I think Tom this is one of the reasons why you can get large prices and a good percentage of hits on the lower prices ones at harness. They do NOT make it easy for you. TM about the only one I know of that does files for software people. JoeG could comment on this much better than myself as he is a very very good software guy. SQ also uses TM a lot and am sure he has to work to update some items. Although he has said he discards the varient idea most of the time. I try and not go overboard on it either but on some winter days with the wind it is very nice to have the extra "bias" info. Hate to use that word in harness as it does not happen to often just mostly in the winter in my view. Good chatting with you in the WR Tom. Not a great night last night at the BigM but had a few very nice results at Woodbine with the trot races. Which I do not bet that often. But when they offer the prices go with the flow. LOL

[Tom]

Ya know, Iwas using Pandy's oddsline last nikght and poking all around the winner's circle. As soon as I quit for the night, his third choice at 7-2 on the line comes home at 8-1! D'OH!
Patientce is a virture I do not have.
ButI'll be back today.

[JimG]

Originally posted by Tom

Patientce is a virture I do not have.
ButI'll be back today.

Tom,

You may not have patience, however, you do have persistance...:D


JimG

[Tom]

Originally posted by JimG
Tom,

You may not have patience, however, you do have persistance...:D


JimG


Yeah. About $12 worth left!:eek:

[JoeG]

I've seen the samples of these and they are nice. If i had unlimited funds and time I'd download them all. But I just use the cheap PP files ($350 a year I think unlimited).

SQ is not a big fan of TMs pace figures but I've never researched them. He may have a better answer for you there.

Joe G

[sq764]

I think the TM speed figures are pretty accurate. I use my own that are adjusted, but I am sure they could be used too..