$100 win mutuels or more [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

trying2win

02-06-2004, 01:37 AM

Amazin

02-06-2004, 02:08 AM

I'll take a break from the off topic room where I normally reside and play this one.

About 12 years ago,I played the GG derby. There was an invader from TuP going off @50-1. I had just learned how to do track to track adjustments using Brohamers book back then. So when this TuP horse came out on top in adjustments,I was a bit skeptical. So I only put $2.00 to win on him, but had a $2.00 exacta with him backwheeled to the field,not boxed. Another $18.00.I figured one of the superstars would win and maybe he'd get second as a late closer. At the top of the stretched he loomed and drew off. I was screaming for someone to beat him. He paid $105.00 to win.The $2.00 exacta was 4 figures.I had this knawing feeling in my chest and I felt like an idiot.I mumbled to myself"sometimes I hate horseracing".The end.

trying2win

02-06-2004, 02:16 AM

Amazin,

Yes, it must have hurt to miss that big exacta, but hitting a $105.00 win mutuel is still not bad.

T2W

superfecta

02-06-2004, 03:04 AM

I'll repeat it again,so forgive me for that.Penn National,several years ago.Horse I come up with as a good bet is 30-1 in the morning line.So being the greedy cat I am,I key him in a small trifecta.I don't even see what his odds are before the race when I go bet.Now my angle is this horse is coming from a small track(GLD)with a DRF speed rating higher than any horse in the race.I figure well these horses are so bad,hes got a shot.Well, he closes like a freight train and wins going away.But I didn't bet him to win,and I miss the tri .I finally see his odds,and hes 99-!.He pays like $215 to win and I don't bother to see what the tri pays.Sadly I haven't learned my lesson,I still don't bet longshots to win,but I figure Id rather pop a tri or super with a longie on top than sweat out a 10 dollar bill on a 20-1 shot.All how you want to look at it, I guess.

trying2win

02-06-2004, 03:37 AM

Superfecta,

Ouch! That would hurt to miss that $215 win mutuel. Oh well, I know what you mean. Some bettors would rather swing for the fences and try to hit the triples and home runs with big trifectas or superfectas, rather than go for the singles and just bet to win. It's another example of the risk vs reward scenario. Everyone's got their own favorite way to bet.

Sometimes you hit those big trifectas or superfectas. Then, you're glad you took that extra risk and it paid off! What a great feeling, eh?

T2W

Jeff P

02-06-2004, 04:51 AM

I've hit a handful of them over the years. But, checking my database, the last one that I had was back in March of 2002. These days, that same type of horse that used to win and occasionally pay $100.00 or more now seems to end up paying in the 25-1 to 30-1 range when they do win. I suspect this might be a case of simulcast players across the country getting sharper and not letting them go off as long as they used to.

One such horse that sticks out in my mind was a claimer running at Del Mar named Daffir. I remember being at Turf Paradise one afternoon in August 2000 and discussing at length why this horse had a chance with a buddy of mine, who is a pretty sharp handicapper in his own right, about 20 minutes before post time.

My reasons for the selection were that the horse was the clear speed of the race, the Del Mar surface was speed favoring that day, and the rider, Rafael Meza, was as gifted as anybody at getting a horse to the front and then getting the horse to relax while on the lead. When the race went off everything unfolded exactly as I had guessed. It was absolutely beautiful to watch. Daffir went to the front right out of the gate and Meza got him to relax while on the lead. Turning for home he opened up daylight in the early part of the stretch and then had enough left to last over the 9-5 favorite who closed to be 2nd. The win mutuel was $180.00 and I had a $30.00 win ticket on him and cashed a pair of pick threes where I used him as a single. That one race made my year. Daffir then won his next two starts, both at odds of over 20-1. When they gave out eclipse awards that year I wish they would have had a category for overlay of the year and I wish that I would have been able to vote. Becasue in my mind, Daffir was clearly it.

trying2win

02-06-2004, 05:04 AM

Jeff,

Interesting story. It's nice to relive those big wins we all have on occasion. $180.00 to win. Wow! Nice going. Sure beats the best win price I ever got on the thoroughbreds.

T2W

fiveouttasix

02-06-2004, 06:02 AM

A couple of $100 winners I hit were both based on Turf Pedigree Ratings from Tomlinson.
Here's what I remember about the first one. I don't recall the date but it happened the same night as the infamous White Bronco Car Chase of O.J. The race was at Atlantic City Race Course. I also don't remember the horses name but I do recall that the sire was Groovy with a 300 Rating( highest ). That was the sole reason for the bet. The horse paid $100. plus (can't recall). My bookmaker capped future win bets at 15-1.
The second winner paid $100 on the nose. The race was at Belmont in May of 93 the horses name was Dinner Diamond. How do I remember these details? Because Cramer put the PP's on the cover of his Kinky Handicapping Book!
Anyway,now that everyone has access to some sort of Turf Rating I don't see prices like these anymore.

shanta

02-06-2004, 08:21 AM

i am at the meadowlands about 8/10 years ago. betting the thoroughbreds but the live harness is running this night.at the table next to me this older guy is reading the program for the harness that night for like 2 or 3 hours.i start some small talk with him and then ask if he has any opinions about the races that night. he says " kid the 8 in the 9th race is gonna win and pay BIG".so i say ok and he gets up and leaves. about an hour later i am outside and some of that nights horses are warming up on the track. after a few minutes i see this "BLUR' go by me and said to myself who the f%$# was that. i keep my eye on the horse and when he comes around again i see its the 8 HORSE IN THE 9TH RACE :eek: same horse the old buck gave me!long story short i lose track of the races at the big m and am taking a pounding at whatever track im playing. the 8 horse wins the 9th race and paid like $168 beans for the win:( i was sick.

Richie:)

jotb

02-06-2004, 09:46 AM

Hello all:

True story but not much in the way of handicapping. When I was 18 years old with about 5 years of handicapping experience (actually didn't have a clue at that time but thought I was a handicapper), I purchased the DRF the night before (waited for the truck in those days to deliver the paper at 9PM at the local newstand). I went back to my hangout spot which was the local corner and jumped into a car which my friend owned (he had a 442 with a convertable top). There were six of us in the car which included 3 hot females (so we thought at that time) and none of them included the guy's were into horse racing. My friends would constantly tell me not to play the ponies because there was no way you can beat the game. Of course their suggestion went through one ear and out the other. One of the guys in the car was going out with one of the girls and her name was Dorothy. I opened up the form and the first race which was a MSW and infested with a bunch of firsters a horse jumped off the page by the name of Dorothy Maud. (don't ask me who this horse was by or out of) but I do remembered that she had a 3F work of 34 and given the fact that Dorothy was sitting in the car, I made her a lock. I told everybody in the car that I sending it in the next day on this Dorothy Maud and wisely suggested they should do the same even though none of them ever made a bet before.

The next morning I was all pumped up for the big day and headed out the door early. I headed down to the neighborhood hangout once again (Drf folded under my arm and pen in back pocket) and arrived at this candy store, (a 2 by 4 hold in the wall place that held sometimes as many as 20 guys and gals trapped like sardines in a can) and started talking about Dorothy Maude once again. There was this one guy who lived on the block that seemed to enjoyed hanging with us. He was about 10 years older then us and was a police officer but loved to dibble and dabble on the poines. As a matter of fact, he knew how to read the form as well. My friends (even though they were not into horse racing) seemed to look up at him like he was a horse racing God, and started babbling about this Dorothy Maud firster that I felt was a lock. Of course Sal opened the form to check out my selection to see if I was onto something and immediately replied "this horse has no shot" and of course everyone started laughing turning the whole thing into a big joke. Of course I had to retaliate in some kind of way, so I pulled out a crumpled up fifty dollar bill out of my pocket and said to them when O.T.B opens, I'm putting this fifty to win and collect my money right after the race.

Several hours later (which felt like an eternity) the O.T.B down the block opened up so I headed directly to the office to place the bet. As I started to walk towards O.T.B my friend Frankie who was the one going out with Dorothy said to me "do me a favor and throw this two dollars on the horse". I felt like he really had confidence in me but little did I know Dorothy his girl was the one who influenced him to bet on the horse and we all know why. In those days O.T.B opened at 10AM and I figured if I made the bet early, I could show everyone this ticket that I meant business. I went into the O.T.B and quickly filled out 2 seperate tickets. In those days there were no number horses in O.T.B but instead had letters. I'll never forget the horses letter was "R" and I make this bet before scratch time. I told my friend this horse might be scratched and had to explain to him what a scratch was which was a whole other story. Anyway, I headed back to the O.T.B just before racetime to see if the horse got in and to see what the odds were. I looked up at the T.V. monitor in O.T.B and the "R" horse was in and was 50-1. All of a sudden my potential lock didn't look that good so the genius that I was went back to the window and cancelled my bet. I remember the teller (His name was Abe) said to me "are you sure you want to do this"?. I took my money back and waited around until the results were in. In those days O.T.B did not have the races on T.V. nor was there a racecall so all there was, was a bunch guys hanging around this one T.V. moniter waiting for some letter's to flash across the screen. The heart always palpitated quite hard in those days waiting for these silly letter's to come across the monitor. All of a sudden something appeared acrossed the moniter but there were no letter's instead there was "photo". All the old timer's, even though they did not know who was in the photo because O.T.B did not inform the public would start saying the favorite was beat or this so and so must have got caught. Believe it or not I thought they really knew who was in those photo's. Anyhow about a minute or two later across the moniter was this bold type letter "R" in the win position. I had turned around to the teller Abe and he looked at me waving his finger in the air (similar to when my father would wave his finger at me when I just did something I was not supposed to do).

Just when you think this story is finally over it's not. Who comes into O.T.B? Frankie and Dorothy to cash their winning $2 wager which amounted to $102.00. Frankie counting his money smiled to me and said "you made some score today"! All I could say to him was yeah "I told you so". Frankie, Dorothy, and myself headed back to candystore and told everyone about the score I made and everyone felt since I made $2,550 the only right thing to do was to buy lunch for everyone. Thank God for that $50 that I had in my pocket. I did go home broke that day but the there was a bright side to this story. My friends talked about this for year's and everytime I had a feeling that so and so would run well today, they would head over to O.T.B and make their bet. At least I can say, I brought new blood into the game........

Best regards,
Joe

howardjim

02-06-2004, 10:24 AM

Aksarben,late 80's,a lightly raced maiden who hadn't lifted a foot.
I was using BRIS stats at the time and his/her mud pedigree stood out.$5.00 to win and a $210.00 mutuel...I'd forgotten about
that,thanks for rekindling the memory.

ranchwest

02-06-2004, 10:26 AM

Joe,

Your indecision reminds me of last night at HOU. In the 6th, Island Music was sent back to the paddock for a jockey change despite no discernable incident (common at HOU). Before the jockey change they said the horse would race with blinkers off. After the jockey change, they announced blinkers on.

This horse had 28 career starts without a dirt route, but was going a mile.

Yep, through all of these changes this horse wins and pays $76.40. Not quite $100, but I thought it was interesting anyway. I wish I could say that I had it, but I didn't.

BillB

02-06-2004, 10:26 AM

The date was Jan 26, 1995. I had visited a friend in Rockville, MD and was on the way to my home in Frederick, MD. At the time I was primarily using a spot play which I had purchased called "Fit & Ready to Win". Since I had some time I thought I would stop at the OTB which was right on the way and buy a program and see if my spot play had any selections.

The program had LRL, AQU & GP. I checked the scratches at all 3 tracks and then checked out my spot play. Don't remember how many selections I got - probably 3 or 4 from the 3 tracks.

One of these was Sunny Rican in the 8th at GP. The M/L was 20-1. He finished last in his last race at 48-1 but the comment was "Poor start". He was dropping in class from Clm 40K to Clm 32K. He showed early speed in almost all of his races. He was cutting back in distance from 1 1/16 to 7f. I mention these factors because they made me think he didn't look that bad. I would have played him regardless since he qualified by my spot play.

I bet $5 Win & $5 Place and went home. When I checked the results the next day I couldn't believe my eyes. He won and paid $241.40 - $77.20 - $32.60.

I still have the program, the results and a photo of my winning ticket. When I went to cash it they had to go to the back room to get more cash from the safe.

melman

02-06-2004, 10:56 AM

Trying2win last fall Lexas Catchadream at $108.50 at Mohawk. Like to look for the ship ins from the minor Canadian tracks that have had a race over the track at the big tracks. If that race was not all that good you can get some huge prices. Had others with the same angle but that was the best one.

trying2win

02-06-2004, 05:10 PM

In over 40 years of betting thoroughbreds, only twice have I hit a $100 win mutuel or more. It's a rare happening. I would venture to guess that most of the horses going off at 49-1 or more at post time, have a past performance record that looks pretty dismal. In that regard, a lot of handicappers would probably skip most of them. But, there are exceptions. Just reading some of the posts in this thread have shown that. Again, congratulations to everyone that has hit one of these $100 or more win mutuels. To the handicappers that almost bet on one of these winners, but didn't bet it for one reason or another...I know it hurt to miss that big payoff in the past, but there will be the odd opportunity in the future to snag a huge win mutuel again.

It took over 30 years before I got my first one in this category. I remember the track. It was around 1990 at Stampede Park in the springtime. I can't remember all of the fine details of the race in question. At the start of the Stampede Park spring meet, a lot of the horses have been laid off for 6 or 7 months from the last meet in Alberta. In this particular race, probably several horses had a start or two in the current year, except the one I bet. I recall that in this half-decent sized field, that practically every starter had an 'E' type of running style. That is, except the one I took a flyer on (unfortunately, I can't remember the name of the horse). This horse didn't have a start in the current year, but I noticed he was a consistent strong closer with a fairly good record. I know it's generally not a good idea betting a horse after a long layoff, but I took a chance. The horse won and paid about $129.00 to win.

The only other one I connected on, was a horse called Red Rock Ridge. It happened last year in February at Turf Paradise. It was another flyer type-of-bet. I was just betting some horses at the time on a self-created angle (I don't use this angle anymore--the losing streaks got too long in between winners). Anyways, this horse won and paid $134.00 to win. I can't say that I used a heck of a lot of logic on betting this horse. More of a case of just being lucky, when I consider the type of angle I was using on this race.

T2W

Binder

02-06-2004, 07:11 PM

Beginers luck

$97 is as close as I've come
I had just started using Doc Sartins Synthesis
I had recently upgraded from PL4. I had a appointment to speak with
Doc by phone at 3.00 eastern time. I spoke with him for a long time and as per usual. He really got my confidence lifted.
I had only worked races at The Meadowlands with my best friend.
He and I worked together as he and Doc were my only way to learn. After I got off the phone with Doc, I drove down to Meadowlands. It was a Tuesday, and I think the only track running
besides harness (which I really knew nothing about.) was
Turf Paradise. There were maybe 50 people in the whole track
and I didn't see anyone I knew. So I was on my own. I found a DRF and hand entered my lines. It took me like 2 races to do it because I typed so slow. I never typed anything before I used the Sartin
Programs . I just followed Doc's instructions and put in my two $2
win bets. I can't remember the horse's name but I do remember
it was the # 9 who won I cashed my voucher and packed up
and drove home That was it 1 race $4 invested and very happy

S.....ta Remember those days at the Med. after we would speak to Doc? We were vicious With the VECTOR screen on the turf

:)

Blind Pursuit

02-06-2004, 07:30 PM

Back in the days before computerized handicapping, online databases, and all the wonders of modern technology, I sat down with a season's worth of Monmouth Park charts and made my own trainer stats. One high percentage play I spotted was Dan Perlsweig, first time turf.

So one day, along comes a Perslweig first-turfer in a maiden special where there are only two real contenders, an 8-5 obvious choice and a 7-2 John Forbes horse who looks all right. My Perslweig firster is 20-1 m/l, 30-1 when I bet him, 50-1 when I go back to play the exacta with him on top of the fave (a rare exacta bet for me in those days), 80-1 when I figure "what the heck" and key him on top in the tri to the other two contenders, and 99-1 when the gates opened.

Won, paid $200+, hit the exacta, hit the tri. A lot of money for me in those days. All with my little home-made trainer stats!

I thought "I'm a genius! What an easy game!" Well, we all know how that worked out.

Horse's name was Blind Pursuit.

IRISHLADSTABLE

02-06-2004, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by fiveouttasix
.
The second winner paid $100 on the nose. The race was at Belmont in May of 93 the horses name was Dinner Diamond. How do I remember these details? Because Cramer put the PP's on the cover of his Kinky Handicapping Book!
Anyway,now that everyone has access to some sort of Turf Rating I don't see prices like these anymore.

Fiveouttasix,
Love this horse . Before the computer and watch
lists I would check the entries every day going to work.
I would buy the N.Y. Post and check my list vs the entries on the train. One horse I allways looked for was Dinner Diamond.
I would look at the route races first. I remember D.D was
entered in a stakes race at the Meadowland's . It was during the week. I called my friend Tom and asked him if he wanted to make a trip to the Meadowlands. We went just for that race .
Put a $100.00 on Dinner Diamond's nose . Dont remember the payoff but walked out of the Big M a happy man.
When I was posting on the DRF site I gave out Dinner Diamond
at Saratoga a few yrs ago. D.D. won back to back races in a 12-14 Day span, paying $20.00 plus dollars each time.
Fiveoutofsin, Thanks for posting about D.D. Lots of great
memories .
Jimmy

turffan

02-07-2004, 12:39 PM

Three in the last few years.

One last year at LaD was part of a Pick 3 and strictly a trainer play. I had seen Joe Petalino bring in some at long odds at Lone Star. In the race in question I played the odds-on favorite and his horse who looked possible if you forgave his last couple. Was surprised to see him over 50-1.

Another at NYRA was again a trainer play - Billy Turner generally gets no respect with firsters but they win often enough. His numbers have tailed off in the last year but was on a roll a couple of years ago.

The last was a turf sprint at Penn National. If you play turf races there you know the high percentage of longshots that win on that surface. Lucky guess.

02-07-2004, 12:51 PM

I'm bad with names if it isn't a top flight horse, but I hit one this year on the same day Bird Town nosed out Lady Tak in the Acorn. The horse paid $199 and some change. I also gave out Buy The Sport in the War Room, and bet her real good. I can't remember if she paid $100 or not, but it was real close.

freeneasy

02-10-2004, 09:24 PM

the year before i played a pk3. had a $100+ horse an $11 horse and the two cant lose heavy favorites in the 3rd leg. shall i go on. 2nd and 3rd.

Thomason

02-10-2004, 10:02 PM

My friend Lee Walker is the King of the $100 horses, at least in my part of the country. He has hit so many of them, I've stopped counting. My favorite is the 6yo, New Jersey bred, first time starter. The horse had been training in Southern California and he ships to Churchill Downs. He goes off at 99 to 1. Lee bets $20 on him to win. The horse wins going away.

The rest of us immediately turn back to the form, searching for some clue. Slow works, average trainer, mediocre jockey. There's nothing there. We all turn to Lee in unison and say, "What in heaven's name possessed you to bet on that horse?" He replies, "Heck, they didn't ship him all the way from California for nothing."

And in our group, that will forever be known as the 6 year old, New Jersey bred, first time starter angle.

melman

02-11-2004, 08:36 AM

Trying2win this has been a very entertaining thread. Thanks for starting it. How about largest scores you have ever made also? Three years ago at this time of year hit a $10,000 pic3 at The Meadowlands on a Sunday afternoon. Of course none of the horses were favorites but I was astonded by the huge return. Sometimes it just pays to be in the right place at the right time. Anyone on this board ever score with a pic6 play. I have tried more than a few times when they have large carryover days but am still waiting for the first hit.

shanta

02-11-2004, 08:48 AM

that was a great story! talk about betting more as the odds went up:eek: Richie

Red Knave

02-11-2004, 11:43 AM

Like Blind Pursuit, Red Knave won 3 times for me over a 2 year span in the mid 70's and paid over $50 each time. I'm pretty sure he never paid over $100, but he sure did pay the rent back then.
He was one of those horses that had a record like 25 starts 3 wins no seconds no thirds. You just had to be patient.

maxwell

02-11-2004, 06:10 PM

I've never hit a $100 winner but I have nailed a couple of nice ones over the years: 42-1 , 32-1. It's pretty tough to catch anything over 20-1 these days as other players have said.

The first decent score for me was many moons ago but I still remember the name : Just Sailed ... paid $72

It made me feel :cool:

freeneasy

02-15-2004, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by melman
Trying2win this has been a very entertaining thread. Thanks for starting it. How about largest scores you have ever made also? Three years ago at this time of year hit a $10,000 pic3 at The Meadowlands on a Sunday afternoon. Of course none of the horses were favorites but I was astonded by the huge return. Sometimes it just pays to be in the right place at the right time. Anyone on this board ever score with a pic6 play. I have tried more than a few times when they have large carryover days but am still waiting for the first hit.
yeah i hit a pk 6 two weeks ago right here in the war room on a 4dolar ticket. only paid 5 hundred and something but hey it was a fun bet to hit

superfecta

02-15-2004, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by freeneasy
yeah i hit a pk 6 two weeks ago right here in the war room on a 4dolar ticket. only paid 5 hundred and something but hey it was a fun bet to hit bets like that really piss Crist and Davadowitz off :D

Pace Cap'n

02-15-2004, 09:35 PM

Let me tell you about one yesterday (the 14th).

I'm playing AQU and OP, and next to me my wife is looking at GP in the DRF. She mentioned a horse that had a good speed figure and asked me what I thought. I patiently explained to her that a last out maiden claiming winner going up against allowance company for the first time was probably not the best bet. There were "better" horses, with better jocks, etc. It was all I could do to talk her out of it before post time.

Naturally, the dang thing won. Paid $129.00. Race 4, #1, Very Formal M.D.

Probably never hear the end of it.

trying2win

02-15-2004, 10:35 PM

Did anyone have any money bet on that longshot named LOCKJAWS GRANDSON in the 1st race today at Sam Houston? It paid $127.00 to win! I sure didn't have it to win. Naturally, I wish I did.

T2W

exacta

02-16-2004, 09:05 PM

OP today

I'm watching this MCL today online as I was waiting on the Martha Wahington which I'd handicapped as (to ME ) a highly suspect fav and second fav were vulnerable

I'd already gotten down my wager of an exacta box for the Martha on the three inside ponies 1,2 and 3

this is from the result chart for the sixth race, a MCL 15k route

TYLER TACK stalked the leaders into the far turn, challenged from the outside exiting the second turn, drove well clear.

SAINT NICK'S MAGIC chased the leader for a half, dueled inside that one into and through the second turn, equal terms with the winner past the furlong marker, no match late.

PRAIRIE D'ANE clear into the first turn, set or forced pace off the inside, allowed the runner up the rail after a half, continued to vie, gave way late.

TT paid 100 - 35.20 - 14.60
SNM paid 9.40 - 6.20
PdA paid 5.20

I immediately thought of seeing this topic here on PA ....
LOL

btw

the dangblasted ten(10) horse got in MY way of cashing in the Martha ....
the results were 2-10-1-3
and the odds were, repectively
13.40/1 == 3.60/1 == 4.70/1 == 15.90/1

oh well, it "woulda been" a nice exacta for me except for the ten pony .... <ggggg>

and I re-looked at the form for the 49/1 winner paying hundred bucks in the sixth ...
couldn't pick it, even after the race was over ..... lol

02-17-2004, 03:15 PM

Nice pick in the MW, tough break on the exacta. I loved the 2, gave her out in the War Room after the 7th before I went to bed. But, I couldn't sleep knowing I had bet a price horse, so I had to watch despite the wife's grumblings! I horse at those odds is normally a WP bet for me, but it was all win on the 2.

As for the 6th, I'm not saying I would have bet the horse, I didn't cap the race. I rarely even look at the MCLs. But here is what I see on my numbers:

The top figure at the distance for any horse in the race was a 56. The eventual winner, the first tried a route in January coming off a 3 month layoff, so I doubt he was sharp. He earned a 43 from the dreaded 9 hole at OP. He came back less than two weeks later and caught a sloppy track, a condition he had obviously disliked in his first career race. So, I see a horse who has never really had a chance to show his stuff going 2 turns and still only about 4 lengths slower than a group of proven losers. He drew inside yesterday and caught a "good" track, so at 49-1, you have to give this horse a second look. Many times you will bet a horse like this and watch them clunk home 8th, but you don't have to be right very often.

By the way, this race, my numbers were very similiar to the Beyers, so its not the numbers. Just have to have a good imagination sometimes. I start every race by trying to picture how the favorite can lose :D:D:D

Richard

02-17-2004, 06:50 PM

Feb.4th I played the 7th race at SA.A mile on the turf,My top pick was a horse named Fudge Fatale.My program(EasyCapper)gives Fudge even odds.Track ML was 8/1,and closing odds were 55.1/1.Fudge paid $112.20 to win and my only regret was that I only bet $2.I definitely intend to do this again(hopefully many more times).

Richard

02-18-2004, 11:12 AM

Fudge Fatale won her race on Jan 28th.

Zaf

02-21-2004, 01:46 AM

Tonight I almost made the club. At Turfway I hit the finale for a win mutuel of $99.20. Too bad I fell short by .80 cents :p

ZAFONIC

JustRalph

02-21-2004, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by zafonic
Tonight I almost made the club. At Turfway I hit the finale for a win mutuel of $99.20. Too bad I fell short by .80 cents :p

ZAFONIC

Congrats........nice ticket!

trying2win

02-21-2004, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by zafonic
Tonight I almost made the club. At Turfway I hit the finale for a win mutuel of $99.20. Too bad I fell short by .80 cents :p

ZAFONIC

ZAFONIC,

Nice going! As they say, it's hard to be humble after hitting a winner like that.

I also bet that race at Turfway, and my horse came in. Unfortunately, it was an also ran...LOL....
Nevertheless, Turfway Park's still one of my favorite tracks to play.

T2W

Richard

02-21-2004, 07:55 AM

Fudge Fatale runs again today at SA in the 8th race.Worth a look.

Fastracehorse

02-21-2004, 03:10 PM

They usually make sense.

I hit 3 last year - none so far this year. Posted 2 of them.

Often times, they are 15-1 horses that just keep drifting up in odds value for some factor the public finds ugly - often the jock.

But again, they usually make sense.

There was one last weekend at the Gulf. Horse just broke his Mdn and enters back quickly his next race - with a 1st of 75 4f bullet to boot.

I almost made him him my 1st choice. Almost, almost, almost..................

fffastt

freeneasy

02-21-2004, 03:12 PM

next time you get a hunnert dollar winner short of 80 centavos gives us a call will ya, i promise no ones gonna take one look at the horse, laugh and say, well it looks like bobs been soak'n up a little to much water to the brain. :D btw zaf, whow'd you handicap this horse meaning what made him a bet for you? cmwtk

Zaf

02-22-2004, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by freeneasy
next time you get a hunnert dollar winner short of 80 centavos gives us a call will ya, i promise no ones gonna take one look at the horse, laugh and say, well it looks like bobs been soak'n up a little to much water to the brain. :D btw zaf, whow'd you handicap this horse meaning what made him a bet for you? cmwtk

Bob was soaking up a few beers :cool:

The race was a 5F cheap claimer. I used my 4 Furlong Pace number to handicap the race. I do not look at final figures in a fiasco race like this. He had 3 very good 4F figures in his last 3 races. He matched up very well with his competition on this factor. In a 5F race the pace number comprises 80 % of the race so, I believed he would be in contention in the lane. When I bet him he was 33-1 , he drifted up during the race. The 7 horse in the field was a terrible underlay at 4-5. Get lucky sometimes ;)

ZAFONIC

02-22-2004, 03:04 PM

I've just joined the club!

47317372874696 Fair Grounds # 4 $1 Trifecta 1,WT,3,5,WT 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $12.00 - -

76269196438697 Fair Grounds # 4 $15 Win 1 $15.00 - -

02-22-2004, 03:09 PM

47317372874696 Fair Grounds # 4 $1 Trifecta 1,WT,3,5,WT 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 $12.00 $969.00 +$957.00

76269196438697 Fair Grounds # 4 $15 Win 1 $15.00 $772.50 +$757.50

Zaf

02-22-2004, 03:48 PM

Congrats CJ !!!!!!!

I knew it wouldn't take you that long to do that.

Funny you asked me yesterday how I got mine , and you come back the next day and top me. Way to go.

I'm still not in , $99.20 ain't $100. ;)

How did you come up with that one ?

ZAFONIC

02-22-2004, 04:02 PM

I wish I could give you some long, drawn out analysis. But in truth, the horse had the 2nd best last out figure on my numbers and looked to improve a little, while the favorite was top fig -- but 2-5? No thanks!

keilan

02-22-2004, 06:13 PM

Hey CJ

$103 dollar winner and the tri a couple times, not too shabby!

I luv the way you chased that tri with the big horse keyed on top. Great catch.

Zaf

02-22-2004, 06:38 PM

WOW, I didn't notice the tri, ballsy play.

C.J. man, you can pick em !!

ZAFONIC

mhrussell

02-22-2004, 06:41 PM

Hey CJ

I handicapped that race too. How the heck did you have the #1 with the 2nd best fig out of its last race? From the BRIS pp's it had a 64 speed fig and ranked 3rd to last in PBS rating (Im using a home grown variant of the Handicapping Magic technique). I was using the 2 and the 6 on top. I knew the favorite had the wrong running style for the race and at odds on, big prices were looming.

Glad you hit it.. but would like to know more about why you ranked the 1 as high as you did in your analysis. Its last race was pretty piggy..

mhrussell

02-22-2004, 06:50 PM

CJ-

Funny...
After I posted my above note to you, I read your post about Liftin's Figure making and your view on BRIS figures. Maybe we came across a race where those differences made the difference.

I've used BRIS pp's for the past 4 years but now I am wondering...
(I am also on a losing streak which makes me wonder more than I should. I have had OK success with my approach and just need to hang in there.)

Great hit again. Reminds me of the 84-1 shot I hit at Fairgrounds last year (Candid Glen in a turf route).

nomadpat

02-22-2004, 07:44 PM

I also looked at the Bris Ultimate PPs after seeing your post. The only thing I can see is that he had one of the better class ratings from the last race. I assume that you use a class rating as part of your factors?

Great hit!

Pace Cap'n

02-22-2004, 07:51 PM

CJ, congratulations on a couple of really nice hits.

No, I didn't join the club today, but....

At the OTB (Woodlands dog track, KC), off in one corner with maybe 30 cappers, two guys were alive to the P6 at OP going into the last race. One had the odds on fav, and the other had a 4-1 Cole Norman horse.

The 4-1 came in, and this dude had the only ticket for 238- large.
It was exciting to see, even if it wasn't me. Reinforced the fact it can be done, fair and square. On a $288 ticket.

Most everyone there was way more excited than he was. He didn't even cheer the dang horse home. When he saw it was a clear winner mid-stretch, he did get out of his chair. But not a peep. Everyone else went nuts.

I think the guy with odds-on fav was last seen heading for a bridge.

Buddha

02-22-2004, 10:17 PM

very nice one. you knwo if you put another $5 or $10 on it to win, you prolly would have been looking at odds of 49.90 to win and only payed $99.80. Good thing you stayed with a $15 win bet :) just raggin ya. good job.

doophus

02-22-2004, 11:45 PM

CJ:

Congrats on the big win.

Saw the replay tonite and learned this was jock's 1st career win.

Hope you repeat soon.

02-23-2004, 02:42 AM

Originally posted by doophus
CJ:

Congrats on the big win.

Saw the replay tonite and learned this was jock's 1st career win.

Hope you repeat soon.

LOL, I didn't even know that! I always say I don't pay attention to jock! Thanks.

02-23-2004, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by mhrussell
Hey CJ

I handicapped that race too. How the heck did you have the #1 with the 2nd best fig out of its last race? From the BRIS pp's it had a 64 speed fig and ranked 3rd to last in PBS rating (Im using a home grown variant of the Handicapping Magic technique). I was using the 2 and the 6 on top. I knew the favorite had the wrong running style for the race and at odds on, big prices were looming.

Glad you hit it.. but would like to know more about why you ranked the 1 as high as you did in your analysis. Its last race was pretty piggy..

Check my web site, I make my own figures. I think that FG card is still posted. Someone asked if I use class, and the answer is no, I don't. The horse was coming out of the fastest race of the group, by far. And he looked to be impoving.

shanta

02-23-2004, 09:19 AM

saw your website and your fairgrounds card with the winner of the 4th race @103 beans! how sweet it is! congrats on a great score and "cappin".
Richie:)

superfecta

02-23-2004, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n

The 4-1 came in, and this dude had the only ticket for 238- large.
It was exciting to see, even if it wasn't me. Reinforced the fact it can be done, fair and square. On a $288 ticket.

Most everyone there was way more excited than he was. He didn't even cheer the dang horse home. When he saw it was a clear winner mid-stretch, he did get out of his chair. But not a peep. Everyone else went nuts.

I think the guy with odds-on fav was last seen heading for a bridge. Maybe he was just getting even for the day:D But seriously,I like to think when you win a big one,thats what supposed to happen,after all you did the figuring,so you expect to win.I just won another 3k,which brings me up to almost 15k for the year.But I expected to win,so whiles its really nice,I don't thiink its worth acting like a crazy person.maybe I'm too jaded,but I'll still take the money.

Fastracehorse

02-24-2004, 04:21 PM

Did you post that horse as your first choice?? - I wouldn't be surprised if you did.

I also saw the horse, my 3rd choice on DRF - and after the race, I went back over the horse and saw that I under-rated it.

I did hit a $75 top pick at FG last week - no $100 winners this year so far.

fffastt

02-24-2004, 04:43 PM

I didn't post anything, just the numbers. I was betting 3 tracks at the time, so I didn't get a chance. If I posted all my bets, I'd fill up the board, with 85% of them losers...LOL.

Pace Cap'n

02-24-2004, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by superfecta
But I expected to win,so whiles its really nice,I don't thiink its worth acting like a crazy person.maybe I'm too jaded,but I'll still take the money.

You're right. I have also had some nice hits without doing backflips. But for $238,000.00?

superfecta

02-25-2004, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
You're right. I have also had some nice hits without doing backflips. But for $238,000.00? I think if I hit for that much,I would just say "I'm having a very good day".;)

Niko

02-25-2004, 07:56 PM

CJ,
Very, very nice hit. I couldn't rate the horse higher than 4th so wouldn't have put it on top.
When you said the horse was coming out of the fastest race of the group can you give a clue as to how you factor in the time of the race vs. the horses actual time in the race? Or did the horse rate second on speed of all horses using it's last race with your calculations?
Interested becuase Ray Talbout said it was always more important to look at the times of the race the horse ran vs. versus the times that the horse itself ran.
I haven't been able to incorporate that yet.

Buddha

02-25-2004, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by Niko

When you said the horse was coming out of the fastest race of the group can you give a clue as to how you factor in the time of the race vs. the horses actual time in the race? Or did the horse rate second on speed of all horses using it's last race with your calculations?

It had the second highest figure rating using CJ's program from the last race.

Fastracehorse

02-25-2004, 10:20 PM

<Interested becuase Ray Talbout said it was always more important to look at the times of the race the horse ran vs. versus the times that the horse itself ran.

Could you clarify your meaning??

fffastt

Niko

02-26-2004, 09:25 PM

I guess instead of final time I should have said pace. He believed that the pace of the race was as/if not more important than the actual pace that the horse itself ran. Or, how did the horse handle the pace of the race it ran against. He emphasized horses that were able to overcome the fastest 2nd call pace and not necessarily the horses with the best pace rating. You could also apply this to adjusting speed ratings by giving horses more credit for overcoming or running against a faster pace even if they didn't win (the horses who forced the pace and tired may be better bets coming back in the next race than the horses that benefitted even though they don't have as high a speed/pace rating) If you've read Handicapping Magic it reminds me of the Fulcrum horse and it may be where Pizzolla got the idea. Pizzolla looks for the likely pacesetter of todays race and then includes contenders that have run good races against that pace and throws out horses (for win) that have been unable to run against such a pace.
I'm trying to incorporate this in my handicapping but haven't been able to come up with a good formula for it.
That's why CJ's comments stirred up such a interest with me.
Maybe it's something you're doing ffaasstt?

Fastracehorse

02-26-2004, 10:35 PM

<He believed that the pace of the race was as/if not more important than the actual pace that the horse itself ran.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That is believed by many handicappers. For example, key races are studies based on theories that these races are exceptionally strong. Hence, a horse that ran in the key race should be given an extra look.

I know that pace isn't always mentioned by key race theorists however, I know that pace is part of my arsenal - and I like key races.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Also, class is another sweeping way to describe pace. Better horses - better pace.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

<That's why CJ's comments stirred up such a interest with me.
Maybe it's something you're doing ffaasstt?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I do know that CJ has an adjusted speed fig - and so do I - and we both don't weight jocks heavily.

And as Rick Ransom pointed out, low speed figs can lead to over-lays.

They are taken at face value sometimes and this can be a very bad mistake. Adjustments can lead to the type of horse CJ scored with.

fffastt

Niko

02-27-2004, 04:05 PM

The key and hard part is figuring out which adjustments to make

02-27-2004, 04:20 PM

The adjustments to make are the ones people don't bet on. I adjust for pace, position, and maturity, and surface. I also adjust differently for beaten lengths than most of your standard speed charts.

I don't adjust for jocks, posts, class, etc. People bet those. I've said before, I'm not a high percentage player. I want prices, its just my nature. I would not like this game hitting 32% at an average of 5-2. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with that, it is profitable. It just wouldn't do it for me.

Fastracehorse

02-28-2004, 12:35 PM

When people give a point system regarding jockeys.

Especially when it's just for comparison within the colony.

Alot of longshots shouldn't be so long - but the public factors the bad jock too negatively. And vice versa.

Post too doesn't make sense to me. Every race is different. Many horses hate the inside in sprints - some horses can tolerate the rail because they have enough speed to avoid being intimidated - so every situtation is different.

Niko - simply put - I adjust the Beyer. But there is more to handicapping than having a solid speed fig. Figs do have thier merits however.

fffastt

Niko

02-28-2004, 05:34 PM

When you talk about maturity are you alluding to younger horses coming back off lay-offs? younger horses 2-3 (4) period that can improve?
I've seen some people on this board say they make adjustments based on how long the horse has been away, I haven't been able to do this yet.
I use adjustements based on position and pace that has helped some. Surface can be tricky also. I usually ignore top efforts on off tracks and turf ratings on dirt surfaces. This is something fairly new as I've been trying it for about the last 7-8 months with some success.
Right now I'm making 2 different pace ratings based on adjustments for early pace/position and late pace/position. It seems it depends on the race shape as the one to use. Do you just use one rating for all races, if so do you think early or late adjustments are the most important?
Am I on the right track?

fiveouttasix

02-29-2004, 09:20 AM

I downloaded GP yesterday (Sat.)
In the 12th race there was a field of 12 MSW. Of the 12 only 4 had raced. Here is what I saw:

HORSE CRAIG'S POWER RATING BRIS SPEED FIG OFF ODDS
1 55 76 65-1
10 65 78 9-1
11 63 78 42-1
12 59 92 3-5

What a bad fav. on the 12 (Bailey) according to the power rating!
Since none of the firsters were taking much action I decided to play the race. WPS on the 11 and EXB 10-11-12.

The 11 won paying $86.80 & the Ex. $148.60.

I would not have played this race without the power rating info.
THANK YOU .
Yesterday was the first time I tried your site & ratings. That was quite a discrepancy in the above example. Do differences to this extreme happen often?

dav4463

02-29-2004, 03:44 PM

Finally picked one ! $116.80 winner in the second at Hawthorne yesterday. Decent Md Sp Wt horse who showed some brief speed before and fit the class. Also had a decent jockey/trainer combo. The good ones still get overlooked sometime !

03-01-2004, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by fiveouttasix

...Yesterday was the first time I tried your site & ratings. That was quite a discrepancy in the above example. Do differences to this extreme happen often?

Thanks for the kind words...to answer your question, I don't use BRIS as I think their numbers aren't very good, and yes, the differences do occur often. Of course, mine aren't always right. The difference is, mine pay better. Sorry the site isn't up to date, I picked a bad time to start with traveling this month. But I'll be back full swing on March 26th and go through the Breeder's Cup.

I notice the horse was 4 wide in his one prior race as well...I pay a lot of attention to this factor, even though I don't attempt to factor it in ala Thorograph.

Niko

03-01-2004, 06:27 PM

what's your URL?

twobet

03-02-2004, 01:18 PM

I've hit a few over the years. However, my most recent experience was a 'just missed' on 2/13/2004 in the 5th race at Sam Houston. My 53-1 shot, Cody Steele, finished second by 1/2 length while getting to the winner. I placed him in the win and place slots of a trifecta and hit it anyway (a $2,600 tri).

A trainer angle seemed to be in play here in that the horse's last race (a 7F event) showed an improving animal while well hidden. The horse showed only middle routes in the remaining races of his PP.

03-02-2004, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Niko
what's your URL?

Just click on website at the bottom of any of my posts...to answer, it is http://users.skynet.be/cjmilkowski

raybo

03-02-2004, 04:47 PM

Just click on website at the bottom of any of my posts...to answer, it is http://users.skynet.be/cjmilkowski

Has anyone else mentioned a problem reading the text on your site or is it just my computer? The dark background and black text blend in and the only way I can read the text is to "select all"which causes the text to change to white on a dark background. Just my observation. Maybe just my settings causing it.
Changing subjects, what Bris figures seem to be off in your opinion? I have used them for years and would be interested in your thoughts. I'd like to use the most accurate numbers available, of course. I realize that derived numbers tend to be inaccurate at times no matter who is doing the massaging. It's the nature of the game when you base your calculations on a particular set of data and that data is not directly measureable. Kinda like shooting a laser at the moon and having your aim off a fraction of a degree. By the time it gets there it's not even close.

Niko

03-03-2004, 06:36 PM

I've used Bris for a couple years now and the only really bad thing I've found with Bris is their early pace ratings on off tracks, especially grass. It's best just to throw them out the window.
Bris #'s appear better than ITS, as good or a little better than equibase(haven't used them a lot) and I've had more success with their speed figs than Beyers (but I don't have a good way to adjust the Beyers like a few do on this site.)

Thanks for the site CJ

raybo

03-03-2004, 07:33 PM

<I've used Bris for a couple years now and the only really bad thing I've found with Bris is their early pace ratings on off tracks, especially grass. It's best just to throw them out the window.
Bris #'s appear better than ITS, as good or a little better than equibase(haven't used them a lot) and I've had more success with their speed figs than Beyers (but I don't have a good way to adjust the Beyers like a few do on this site.)>

Thanks for the input Niko. I've used Bris since the late '90s after having tryed ITSdata, DRF, HDRF, etc, and I like them better. I especially don't care for Beyer's speed figures. I, like you, haven't taken the time to modify them. Bris' figures seem to be adjusted pretty well already. I use primarily the LP, RR, CR, and Spd numbers. I don't pay a lot of attention to early pace figures other than to get a feel for how a horse might be improving his condition. I don't use any of the pace figures for calculations in deriving other figures. I also don't like to mess with "off" tracks much either. I am less consistent than on fast tracks. Basically, all my calculations are based on nominals so a fast track is preferable. As I've said in other posts, I use the numbers I derive strictly as guides, I don't use them as absolutes. I use them for comparisons basically to determine current condition. If I know condition I can usually pick the winner with one selection and 2nd with 2, 3rd with 4, and 4th with 5 selections. I am a superfecta player, by the way.

Niko

03-03-2004, 09:53 PM

I haven't done a lot with the CR but like someone else posted..(poor memory and not enough time to search posts) they did some research and found a high correlation between the CR and speed rating so you might be duplicating some effort there.
I have to look at the RR. I didn't even know what it was but found it in the PP's.
Any way in particular that the RR has helped you?
I agree on using LP which I modify slightly by EP and using speed as being great ways to find the contenders and using them as guides instead of absolutes. I'm mainly a win and exacta better with a sprinkle of pick 3's. Supers and Tri's have escaped me and my bankroll.

raybo

03-04-2004, 12:48 AM

Niko: <a high correlation between the CR and speed rating >

There is, of course, a correlation between Bris' CR and Bris' Speed rating. And, I don't presume to know precisely how they arrive at their figures. However, I think it's fair to assume that they follow fairly traditional practices in arriving at both sets of numbers. While Bris' Speed rating is unique to Bris' it is still a "speed rating" and utilyzes the same "hard" numbers that most everyone else uses, namely: times, distances, some type of track variant factor, and a class factor. They attempt to normalize these figures over different tracks and different distances as other companies and individuals do also.

I think the CR figures are quite a bit different than speed figures. While speed certainly is a part of the CR number, speed is more indirect, if that makes any sense. Again I am only expressing my opinion, but I think that the CR numbers are derived from the RR numbers. RR, or Race Rating, measures the overall performance of the whole field in a race, while CR measures an individual horse's performance in relation to the rest of the field. The winner's CR will always be higher than the RR for the same race, naturally. Therefore, the CR is not just an extension of speed but encompasses the whole spectrum of factors within a race and thus becomes much more of a class rating than merely a common speed rating. Both figures hold their own water though, so, in my opinion, one must use both sets of numbers in conjunction if one is calculating a particular horse's ability in relation to others. I personally believe in arriving at an understanding for each horse in a race regarding: speed, pace, ability to handle the distance and the surface, and most importantly, his current condition. Another thing I do is to calculate the winner's CR much like you would calculate the winner's speed number. Bris' tells you the relationship between a beaten length and a speed point, but they aren't giving out their relationship between a beaten length and a CR point or an RR point, I've asked them and they politely declined. So, I do my own and I'm not sure how important the multiplier is really as long as you apply it equally to all horses. In the end, I use: CR, winner's CR, speed par, speed, and distance equalization X beaten lengths to arrive at a grade for each running line for each horse, assuming they have running lines. Then I go to work figuring out which running line to use for each horse and whether or not it needs to be adjusted for trouble, variant, etc. The last part is the only part I do manually, everything else is done by my spreadsheet via formulas and macros. The computer makes a few decisions through some logic functions but not too many. I think we still have a way to go before a computer can think as well as the human brain can.

Tri's and supers really aren't as hard or expensive as some think. My average ticket size on a super is $24 for a $1 super wager. I cover half the horses in a 12 horse field, but the name of the game is to have the winner at least 30% of the time with one selection only, and there must be some profit potential in order to justify a bet. I will not bet if the top 2 tote board animals grade 1, 2. One or the other must be off the ticket if not both.

thelyingthief

05-20-2004, 07:19 PM

i have had several 80 to 120 dollar horses every year of my play.

keeper hill, make room for zoom, are two i recollect with great fondness. when keeper hill opened at 99 to 1, i stood up in the race book, turned to the crowd and shouted, i guarantee this horse will hit the exacta. it won by seven lengths. the $1 exacta paid 454, the trifecta (i had this nailed cold) 1100. i took nearly fifty thousand dollars out of that race. the win bet returned 114 alone.

make room for zoom paid 87, 48 (i think it was), and 24 to win in three of it's four outings that SA meet, and i had him in every race. god, what a meet that was!

corp1956

05-20-2004, 07:44 PM

Trying2win: True One...quick, too. My brother and I were down to our last bucks...he had $2 bucks for his last bet on the Kentucky Derby quite a few years ago. He bets his daughter's birthday-straight-triple......7-3-1. The Derby goes off, yep, he hits the triple straight for $17,500...all longshots....what a day..

NoDayJob

05-21-2004, 01:09 AM

Nice stories. A number of years ago a horse named FAST FOOD shipped from Sacramento Fair to Bay Meadows. It showed a profile that many longshots win with. I broke one of my handicapping rules twice, (first time and last time). Took a friend to the track with me. Told him to be sure and make a bet on this nag. Yup, you guessed it. I got so involved, yaking about horses with him, that I forgot to bet it. He bet $200 and collected $12,500. Couldn't do anything but have a good laugh at my mistake.

NDJ

Jeff P

05-22-2004, 12:45 AM

Got One!!!

05-21-04 HOL R5 #11 SUPER STRUT won $112.00 !!!

Playing horses online tonite and hit this one. Win bet only.

Made the selection for a couple of reasons:

First, Court is a very capable and underrated rider on the turf.

Second, The horse ranked well against the field using my own ratings. With all that colorful good theatre <G> that I've been posting lately over in the software forum about my form rating and the amount of work that goes into it there's no way I was going to let this one go to post at 45-1 (three minute odds) without betting it.

By the way, I don't have live video. I found out that I had won via Bris Supertote about eight minutes after post time when they finally put the results up. I whooped and hollered so much that my neighbor came over and knocked on my door to see what the hell was going on. Farging A! Man! I'd almost forgotten what this feels like.

BillW

08-01-2004, 03:14 AM

I finally joined your club with a $147 place mutuel tonite at the MED :D

It was on a tote board play, I beat a bridgejumper.

Fastracehorse

08-01-2004, 05:24 AM

Congrats.

If U beat a jumper your show must have been gooooooood too :)

fffastt

Tom

08-01-2004, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by BillW
I finally joined your club with a $147 place mutuel tonite at the MED :D

It was on a tote board play, I beat a bridgejumper.
WooHoo! Way to go Bill!
Hope it was Todd Shrupp you beat! :D

BillW

08-01-2004, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
Congrats.

If U beat a jumper your show must have been gooooooood too :)

fffastt

Nah, they saw it coming I guess, no show pool (9 horse field). But this guy had 95% of the place pool. The payout would have been better if there wasn't a dead heat for place.

Like a great athlete once said "It's not the money", just the satisfaction of beating a jumper. :D

Buddha

02-06-2006, 03:48 AM

I finally got a $100+ win mutuel. Was getting ready to head to a friends to watch the super bowl and decided to look at GP. It was 3 MTP for the 9th race. I had looked and saw a few speed horses. Looked at the closers, and saw the 7, UNIVERSAL FORM had faced numerous slow paces (was using CJs figs) and was about 8 pts or so slower than most. I figure that about 3-4 lengths or so, but that was against a slow pace. With a faster pace, might have a shot. Since it was a quick and dirty handicapping, I wasnt going to wager much. Put a few dollars to win on him at 22-1 or so with 3 MTP. 2 MTP about 30-1, 1 MTP 40something to 1, and across the wire at 53.50-1, paying $109.00 :eek:

dav4463

02-06-2006, 04:04 AM

Good pick ! Sometimes my best bets are those races that are full of speed horses, and I just look at the two or three closers to find a play. I wonder if you could make a whole method out of that style of play? I had one just recently that paid $46.80, one of only two closers.

Zaf

02-06-2006, 07:23 AM

Way to go J ;) ! and not too shabby yourself Dave.

Z

toetoe

02-06-2006, 01:12 PM

Buddha,

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

BIG RED

02-06-2006, 01:38 PM

I didn't post when this originally floated around because it could be unbeleivable, so, call Ripley's :)

Back maybe in the late 80's I had just one horse , in a mdn clmg at Churchill, with any kind of 'marks' on it. Donna barton was the Jockey. I was betting $50 win that day, and was up at the time, but for some stupid lack of my own faith, I shorted it to a $20 wager. Chickenitis I guess. Sure enough, it wins and pays, still to this day, my longest of longshots. $380 to win! When I got up to cash I could here from a table next to me, with three guys, " That's the only horse he had marked in the form!" Don't think I'll ever top it.

Just a few years ago I went to Suffolk with a freind. We just ate and played Santa Anita. Then I looked for 13 different things for an entry. There was 1 horse, in another mdn clmg race, that had 11. Eleven! This was only the 2nd time I've seen that, the other time the horse won easy and pd $3.80. I checked the odds, 30-1, wow, I ran to the teller :) It went wire-to-wire and pd. $116 to win. There was another horse that had like 8 things going for it that rounded out a very good exacta. ( can't remember how much)

In a turf clmg. race at NY, can't remember what year, I played a horse that J.Chaves was on, which was a positive in its own. He was a first timer on turf, liked his breeding, and was loaded with early speed. Another wire-to-wire
and pd $172 to win! I also liked only one other horse in the race, so boxed them for my biggest exacta I have bet so far, $2,500.

Now, for my heartbreak. Back in the early 90's I met three freinds at Suffolk for a great day of fun. Churchill again, one of their big days, but not derby day. In this race I came up with 4 contenders. A semi-fave, a 10-1 and 2 bombs. So I played an exacta and a tri box and waited for the race. I hardly ever played supers, but for this race, what the heck, it was a 'fun day'.
So I headed over to the line and bumped into an old freind. We chatted for a bit and then had to hurry and get my bet in. So, the four of us watch the race, and sure enough, there are all the 4 horses. One of my freinds was jubilent to say the least. Now we all wait patiently for the prices to come up. Super pay 1-2-3-all. WHAT! I checked my tickets, with a sour stomach, and noticed I played another tri box?? By talking to my buddy on the way to the teller, and not being a super player, I mentally just did a tri. :( I would have been the only ticket on big day at Churchill. I still never checked what was in the pool til months later. Use your imagination.

I have came close this year, but not yet. Had an $82 winner just recently at TPK. At SA I had a 70-1 shot just miss, but placed. Had that exacta, I beleive I posted it in selections. One will come, you can bet on it. What I like is having one at 99-1, you haven't a clue what he will pay till the board lights up. Happy hunting. ( I think this is the most I've typed in my life, lol!)

rokitman

02-06-2006, 07:22 PM

Come on, Big Red. Take a deep breath and spill it. What was the super pool?

QuarterCrack

02-06-2006, 08:02 PM

Cool Thread.

The only one I've hit was on Martin Luther King Day at Aqueduct in 2004. It was the second race, I think, and I had a hunch after watching some cheap speed stick around longer than they should have in the first race that inside speed would be good. I liked the 3 horse because, despite his dismal PPs, he had just put up a 3f bullet workout for a new trainer. I figured he'd be sent to the front and ride the rail the whole way.

Well, he didn't break on top, but came from midpack along the inside to beat the favorite and pay $147.00 for the win.

I came close this past year in the Derby - I had a pretty sizable bet across the board on Closing Argument. I still made out okay just off the place and show money, but it would have been another $147 or so mutuel...

Koko

02-06-2006, 11:18 PM

Hi Everyone,

This is my first post. I'm quite impressed with the level of sophistication here, particularly in relation to that of Trackchampion, which might be somewhat of a left-handed compliment. I haven't played regularly over the last 7 years or so that I've bet the horses, but I did have one $154 winner (capped at 40-1) which won me the Surfside Race Place contest in 2000 or 2001 and got me into the NTRA/DRF national in which a dumb-self inflicted bad beat got me 13th place and no cash instead of 3rd and $10K. I only remember that it was a Maiden Spc. Wt. and John Sadler had a horse with one start and then a long, long layoff.

I'd like to share an unrelated but interesting (so I claim) story. In 1980, a fresh out of high school buddy and I drove to Golden Gate Fields or Bay Meadows on a weekday for some mindless gambling as we didn't do much handicapping to be quite frank. After a couple of races, a 10 or 12 year old kid comes up to us and asks us to buy a $5 ticket for him. Not unwilling to further corrupt this youth we gladly obliged. Needless to say his horse won (not paying extroridary odds as I recall). As he returned to have us cash his ticket, we got a bit curious and asked him what he was doing at the track, seemingly by himself and on a school day no less.

He said his dad was the jockey Steve Archuleta, who was one of the top riders at the time. We asked him who he liked in the next race and he said he had to go to the paddock or ring and ask his dad "who was going to win". This process was repeated for the next 5 races. Needless to say we weren't bright enough to pick up on his selections until he hit four straight. We finally got on his fifth straight winner (none were extreme longshots as I recall). The sixth race he selected didn't win.

I hope

JackS

02-06-2006, 11:46 PM

About 10yrs ago at SA I hit a horse that paid $200+ and don't even remember his name. He had been racing in Mexico and had a jock named Lomax( I think). An obvoius journeyman but completely unknown in the US.
The horse had won a CLF and a $50,000 clm'ing race in his lightly raced profile and today was intered into a G3 with graded winners.
The only thing positive about this horse were his numbers. He wired them.

TimesTheyRAChangin

02-07-2006, 12:38 AM

Hi Everyone,

After a couple of races, a 10 or 12 year old kid comes up to us and asks us to buy a $5 ticket for him. Not unwilling to further corrupt this youth we gladly obliged. Needless to say his horse won (not paying extroridary odds as I recall). As he returned to have us cash his ticket, we got a bit curious and asked him what he was doing at the track, seemingly by himself and on a school day no less.

I swear to GOD I thought he was going to say the kid's name was Drug S.!!!

theotherside

02-07-2006, 01:32 AM

after putting 100 bucks or so into the 1993 breeders cup classic race keying bertrando with all the logicals,with a minute to go i looked at the form to see who could possibly beat him,and there he was,Arcangues.over 100 to 1.from europe with no form to see i played a straight 2.00 exacta ticket on him over bertrando.when i went to cash the ticket it was a signer and the teller at the otb asked why i bet a 2.00 ticket instead of a dollar ticket so i wouldnt have to sign for it.the truth was i never thought it would come in.

Kitan

02-07-2006, 02:07 AM

I had No Giveaway in the Longacres Mile last year at $122 to win. Race was full of speed and I figured he'd be coming late. 60-1 odds were way too high. Had WPS, ex and P3.

More recently, I liked (but didn't play) Voicesfromthepast at 80-1 in a race a Laurel a few Mondays ago. I was in Vegas and left the race book 10 minutes before the race went off, mostly because I forgot about it, to pack up and head to the airport. Don't ask what happened when I saw he won at $169.

rastajenk

02-07-2006, 05:35 AM

...when i went to cash the ticket it was a signer and the teller at the otb asked why i bet a 2.00 ticket instead of a dollar ticket so i wouldnt have to sign for it.

:confused:

Does that make any sense? Aren't signers based on odds-to-1, not total payouts?

BIG RED

02-07-2006, 03:50 PM

:confused:

Does that make any sense? Aren't signers based on odds-to-1, not total payouts?

Not that I know of. This is why, myself, and others would bet $1 exacta keys, or tri keys, or even boxes for $1. Especially when they 1st came out with the $1 wager. If it's under $600, no tax. NOW, your win bet hits a over $600 to win, you pay, but, what the heck, almost impossible. Win, and mostly the whole system then, was based on a $2 wager.
I've heard some states may be different. Like say you bet a $5 box, you just commited yourself?

02-07-2006, 03:53 PM

I imagine the exacta paid over 300-1 seeing the winner nearly did by himself.

There were two limits. If you cashed over 300-1 but the total was less than $600, you were ok. In other words, $1 tickets were safe as long as you don't cash more than one together.

RaceIsClosed

02-07-2006, 04:26 PM

Just for something different, I thought it would be kind of interesting to hear some stories from PA members, who've managed to hit the odd longshot that paid $100 to win or more. Hitting a longshot like that is difficult to accomplish in two ways. First, if one is a longtime knowledgeable handicapper, the great majority of the time they probably won't be betting on a horse that goes off at 49-1 or more. Secondly, the statistics are against horses going off at 49-1 or more and winning.

Despite the odds against collecting on a win mutuel of $100 or more, I'm sure there are a few PA members who have hit the odd one over the years. Maybe it was one of those kind of races where a bettor had access to information that wasn't readily available to the general public. Then they made their bet, it won and paid an big win mutuel. Why? Maybe the favorite in the race that failed to perform, got hammered down to way below even money, inflating all the other win odds in the race. In another instance, maybe the bettor took a flyer, the horse won and paid a huge win price. Or maybe a bettor won on a horse that paid $100 to win or more, because they made a mistake and bet the wrong number etc. and they kept the ticket anyway, and the horse won!

Okay, let's hear those stories. It's hard to be humble when you hit a winner that pays $100 to win or more. I wonder if some of the stories will warrant a phone call to the Believe It Or Not TV show?

T2W

I've picked several. I think this is all of them:

In the 1980s, I had a first-time turfer named Golf Ace, whose sire was Tom Swift. Tom Swift had run 13 furlongs at Saratoga in 2:37, so I figured he was good blood. He was. The horse paid 69-1, and my $2,800 quinnella with another bomb ran 1-3.

A few years ago, I had a turf horse at Calder who seemed to have some potential and who was just overlooked. He paid $119 and the exacta came back $550.

I had Sarava in the 2002 Belmont because he was an improving horse for a good trainer who had won impressively on the Preakness undercard, from well off the pace, with a powerful run, against a track bias. He paid $142.

This winter at Laurel, I had a lightly-raced maiden who had shown some turf form that looked like it might carry over to the dirt. He won and paid $117 or something like that.

Each time, the horse didn't look bad and had something going for it, at a huge price. Each time it was also my top selection.

Fastracehorse

02-07-2006, 04:28 PM

I remember a horse at GP that still hadn't broken his Maiden.

He had the co-top speed figure 2 back - moved up against winners his last start - then back to Maidens.

He opened up at 17-1 but the horse kept drifting up. I think it was the ugly jocky. The horse romped at 50-1 +. I posted this horse on DRF as my top pick in GP's first or second race. It was my only winner of the day at GP so it looked like a fluke.

fffastt

BIG RED

03-04-2006, 06:50 PM

up :faint:

jk3521

03-04-2006, 10:24 PM

In the late 90's while at Saratoga I had a $130 horse by the name Misformakemesmile. It was a Mdn turf race. The last pp line in the form showed a race on the turf in Canada that showed the horse showed some promise . The jockey was Espinoza, a big longshot rider. The horse followed that win with a $40 win payoff next race at Belmont. I also had a $140 horse running also at Saratoga trained by Carlos Martin. It was a state bred race at a distance. The horse broke it's maiden at a route distance with state breds,then was placed in open company and trailed. The following race was back with state breds, but on the turf. The horse ran out of the money. Then at Saratoga the horse ran again with state breds this time on the dirt at a route, Paydirt! Now I look for this angle frequently, but lightning hasn't struck again.

falconridge

03-05-2006, 12:23 AM

My first was at Bay Meadows, ca. 1978-79. The event was a bottom-level maiden claimer. I found myself drawn to the gelding on the rail, a beast that had in its career debut run evenly in the rear of a substantially higher-level maiden-claiming field--nothing but "10's" in the running line. I reached into my wallet for the only fin I had, called out "Number One" to the teller, and moved toward my usual spot near the finish line on the ground level. No. 1 plodded along in fourth in a non-descript, apparently non-threatening, ground-saving trip for the first 5 1/2 of the 6-furlong trip when suddenly, only about 70 yards from home, the rider wheeled his mount away from the rail and outside of the faltering front-runners, and started scrubbing furiously as the little-fancied maiden appeared to whittle at least two feet from the leader's advantage with every stride. About four jumps from the wire, the big bomb exploded, and at the wire I could tell that the runner I'd backed had prevailed by a good four inches. Let's go to Todd Creed for the rest of the story: "Returning to the winner's circle is number one, Falcon Ridge. The four-year-old bay son of ... is trained by Bob Hess, and was ridden to victory this afternoon by jockey Ra-OOOOOOOOOOL Caballero." Then the happy snaps, the dismount, the weigh-in. Then the "Official" sign on the totalisator, then the price: 101.80.

Within a couple weeks, I hit another, a filly named Lavish Affair, that returned a stylish 107.60 per deuce (I had it thrice, which in those days of impecunious young bachelorhood was a decent plunge for an underemployed night-shift wage slave like myself). I've had a few since, the most recent being a 112.00 bulb-popper (I emptied my TVG account on that one, and netted well over a grand) two summers ago on Super Strut in that one's maiden-breaker on the greensward under the Hollypark lights (remember when they had turf at the Inglewood track?). But I prefer to wait until another post to take that one up.

Meanwhile, happy hunting.