BRIS and Itsmyluckyday

[letswastemoney]

Every day, I am starting to trust BRIS more and more.

Take a look at how Itsmyluckyday's runnning line for the Gulfstream Park Derby looked like using the BRIS PPs...

http://media.tumblr.com/19c5c4f584c8ed9f86429cd409015cb9/tumblr_inline_mh3zmpcu6u1qhgkus.png

I'm pretty sure this picture will be too small for most people to see. But Itsmyluckyday had a 111 on the BRIS speed figure scale for the Gulfstream Park Derby. In addition, his early speed figures for E1 and E2 were both over 100, and his LP fell at exactly 100!

As far as I know on DRF, Itsmyluckyday had a 95 Beyer figure. I don't make Beyer figures and I did not look at the times or figures for the rest of the day, but it seemed kind of strange to be that low considering the fractions were 23, 44, and 1:09 for a 1 mile race. Normally a fast pace promotes a high Beyer because they will come home in a faster time? 44 and change seems very fast for a 1 mile race, unless the track was really just playing that fast on that card.

I initially thought that maybe I could not trust those inflated BRIS numbers. But he won (the Holy Bull). I'm starting to think I don't need to pay money for DRF ever again. I can find free past performances for most races at major racetracks using BRIS.

[Some_One]

Remember that the GP mile has basically a standing start (meaning no run up till the timer starts), so at Bel or CD, that half mile would have been more like 43

[cj]

Remember that the GP mile has basically a standing start (meaning no run up till the timer starts), so at Bel or CD, that half mile would have been more like 43

Not really true this meet.

[Tom]

That 94 was earned in a 100K ungraded stake in January.
The Beyer Par for 1m16 GR3 3yo races in Jan-Feb is 94, so this was 1 point better than far for slightly better classed races. Not too shabby.

[Robert Fischer]

to be fair, he ran a grade 1 3yo race that day.


(much easier to do vs the optional claimers that he faced, but speaking in terms of time, he was grade1 on that day)

[Tom]

? The Holy Bull is a Gr3 and the GP Derby is ungraded according to the BRIS PPs.

[Robert Fischer]

? The Holy Bull is a Gr3 and the GP Derby is ungraded according to the BRIS PPs.

I'm saying Itsmyluckyday ran a 3yo-Grade1 level time in the GP Derby, while he was facing a bunch of 3yo allowance horses.

[Robert Goren]

How in the world do you tell a 3yo AlW horse from a 3yo Stakes horse in Jan and Feb? They are moving up and down the class ladder faster than a speeding bullet. Heck, half of the Kentucky Derby will be lucky if they turn out to be at least ALW horses. When the Bible said" The first shall be last and the last shall be first" , I think It refering to 3yo in the spring and winter.

[Robert Goren]

I'm saying Itsmyluckyday ran a 3yo-Grade1 level time in the GP Derby, while he was facing a bunch of 3yo allowance horses.I see horses do that all the time. They can run really fast when facing nothing. I believed Beyer warned about this someplace in one of his books.

[MightBeSosa]

What does inflated bris numbers mean?

They have nothing to do with beyer, so inflated compared to what?

[CincyHorseplayer]

How in the world do you tell a 3yo AlW horse from a 3yo Stakes horse in Jan and Feb? They are moving up and down the class ladder faster than a speeding bullet. Heck, half of the Kentucky Derby will be lucky if they turn out to be at least ALW horses. When the Bible said" The first shall be last and the last shall be first" , I think It refering to 3yo in the spring and winter.

That's pretty good and pretty funny Bobby!:ThmbUp:

[Robert Goren]

What does inflated bris numbers mean?

They have nothing to do with beyer, so inflated compared to what?Of course you right. But it doesn't matter who does the numbers or how they figure them, you still get inflated numbers sometimes. Only time will tell if this Bris number is out of line with the horse's future Bris numbers. Not how this race compares with Beyer's or anybody who does figures.

[Tom]

I'm saying Itsmyluckyday ran a 3yo-Grade1 level time in the GP Derby, while he was facing a bunch of 3yo allowance horses.

Gottcha!

[Tom]

How in the world do you tell a 3yo AlW horse from a 3yo Stakes horse in Jan and Feb? They are moving up and down the class ladder faster than a speeding bullet. Heck, half of the Kentucky Derby will be lucky if they turn out to be at least ALW horses. When the Bible said" The first shall be last and the last shall be first" , I think It refering to 3yo in the spring and winter.

How? You look at all the 3yo races run since 2005 and come up with a par for the various races. The spread is a lot, but the par tells me that the 95 he ran was about equal to the group of 3yo Gr3 stakes at 8.5F in January or February.

[letswastemoney]

I thought I'd update this by saying they bumped Itsmyluckday's GP Derby Beyer to 102.

[Tom]

Now that's a fast race - when it gets faster weeks after it was run! :eek:

[Robert Fischer]

I don't know why Itsmyluckyday reminds me a little of First Defence.

Maybe it's the type of distance they really excel at?
http://www.unbridledssong.com/Domains/www.unbridledssong.com/CMSFiles/Images/G1SWs-FirstDefence.jpg

http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/content/ItsmyluckydayHolyBull2013_5LeslieMartinAC298.jpg



Itsmyluckyday is an athletic horse and he's really game and focused once they enter the stretch. Not even First Defence could do it like that. You can even see in the picture how athletic and composed he is. Head straight ears pricked. After fast fractions he still has that big burst.

That doesn't mean he's a super horse, he's just a somewhat talented miler 3yo so far.

Will be tough stretching out, and will even be tough against the competition.

So many good 3yos. This is the time of year when everyone always complains about how bad the crop is. And they probably(more like like GUARANTEED) will say it this year in spite of not knowing WTF they are talking about. These horses are GOOD this year.

6 grade 3yos at this point that i can count without putting too much effort researching an internet post:
no order
1. Itsmyluckyday
2. Shanghai Bobby
3. Orb
4. Verrazano
5. Flashback
6. Super Ninety Nine

[mlbelang]

Itsmyluckyday broke the GP 1 1/16 record in that FLA Derby. Maybe the BRIS 111 figure was indicative of his upcoming performance. Perhaps not.

Shanghai Bobby still ran a hell of a race. Either way, I dont see Shanghai or itsmyluckday nailing 10F.

I think, at this point Verrazano is the best 3 y.o horse that will get the 10F. Johnny V has yet to even break out the whip on him. The colt just runs. And runs well.


Im not sure what the OP is getting at since BEYER and BRIS speed figs are completely independent of eachother..