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View Full Version : Would like info on documenting $500k bankroll challenge


Mike A
02-03-2013, 06:58 PM
Hey there guys,

I'll be using an ADW, for the first time I ever have (Twinspires to start with), starting sometime in February, with the hope that I can document running up a starting bankroll of $200, to at least $500,000 over the next 35 months. My intention is to basically offer something as close to proof as we might reasonably come to achieving, via this documentation, that such a thing is (still) possible to achieve, in wagering exclusively on thoroughbred races run in North America.

Would anyone here have any idea how I would go about setting something like this up, in terms of rigorously, unfakeably documented proof? (I would prefer to do this on an ongoing, consistent basis, throughout the entire process/time span...and being an ADW newb I'm not even really sure if total records provided by the service itself at the end of the challenge would be able to constitute the "level of proof" I'm hoping for...i.e., how would I be able to prove I didn't photoshop the results, etc?)

horses4courses
02-03-2013, 07:09 PM
Don't lose sleep over it.
If you can run $200 up to half a mil, nobody would believe it anyway.... ;)

Mike A
02-03-2013, 07:58 PM
It has nothing to do with my own credibility, which is largely meaningless to me. In fact as you rightfully implied, there's a ton of extreme skepticism, and cynicism re the beatability of the game, as well all know. And that's the exact reason why I'm interested in doing this. The game has been good to me, and I'd like to give at least something back, and since I seem to be given to erring on the side of being too "paranoid" about giving away many specifics of my play, I'd like to at least offer some inspiration. But oh yeah, I get where you're comin' from. :)

PICSIX
02-03-2013, 10:08 PM
I'll put up the $200 if we can split the $500k 50-50...I will happily upload a copy of my $250k deposit ticket to PA as proof! :lol: :lol:

Mike A
02-03-2013, 10:50 PM
Sure man, what the hey, it's a deal! ...pshawww..Sweat-equity--schmequity...

jdhanover
02-04-2013, 12:42 AM
All ADWs I think let you see a list of all bets you made in a given time period. some easily export, others not so much. Don't know about Twin Spires. Some also have reports that show all activity (deposits, withdrawals, wagers, winnings). That would be the easy answer if TS has that.

In the end others would accuse you of photo-shopping a summary report but a report with all bets (would be very long) would be tough to photoshop etc and i would think do the trick

GL....and I'm easy...I'll send you the $20 for my 10% ;)

Mike A
02-04-2013, 02:31 AM
All ADWs I think let you see a list of all bets you made in a given time period. some easily export, others not so much. Don't know about Twin Spires. Some also have reports that show all activity (deposits, withdrawals, wagers, winnings). That would be the easy answer if TS has that.

In the end others would accuse you of photo-shopping a summary report but a report with all bets (would be very long) would be tough to photoshop etc and i would think do the trick

GL....and I'm easy...I'll send you the $20 for my 10% ;)

Thanks alot, JD...I really do appreciate any info on this. I'm up for submitting anything that would suffice, no matter how long/unwieldy.

The other practical concern would obviously be that of the problem of "piggy-backing" (I don't mean by the ADW itself, but anywhere I'd be publicly posting plays pre-race) eventually making it unworkable, if indeed somewhere along the (pretty long-term) line enough/the right people deem that I seem to have a clue what I'm doing/I just flatout show a profit. --Since ideally, I'd love to be able to show that I documented all plays in real time, before every race. If anyone knows of any possible logistics related to that specifically as well, I'd appreciate it.

(And not to be captain obvious, and I know you guys are joking, but just to clarify going forward, there's no way I could ever accept anyone's money, for this or anything else. Also, I never have, am not now, and never will be selling anything whatsoever, and I'm not affiliated in any way with anyone who is.)

Thanks again.

Ray2000
02-04-2013, 06:16 AM
Set up an arrangement for emails to a second party whose reputation is "on the line", such as a Law Firm (Deweycheatumnhowe?) or your psychiatrist (just kidding) who can verify the wagers used were received befor post time..

Magister Ludi
02-04-2013, 08:05 PM
Hey there guys,

I'll be using an ADW, for the first time I ever have (Twinspires to start with), starting sometime in February, with the hope that I can document running up a starting bankroll of $200, to at least $500,000 over the next 35 months. My intention is to basically offer something as close to proof as we might reasonably come to achieving, via this documentation, that such a thing is (still) possible to achieve, in wagering exclusively on thoroughbred races run in North America.

Would anyone here have any idea how I would go about setting something like this up, in terms of rigorously, unfakeably documented proof? (I would prefer to do this on an ongoing, consistent basis, throughout the entire process/time span...and being an ADW newb I'm not even really sure if total records provided by the service itself at the end of the challenge would be able to constitute the "level of proof" I'm hoping for...i.e., how would I be able to prove I didn't photoshop the results, etc?)

1) 1040A
2) http://www.thetaresearch.com/

PhantomOnTour
02-04-2013, 10:21 PM
Hmmm...we need some sort of "time release" thread where you can post your plays but they won't appear until after the last bet :)

Seriously though, lotsa guys post screen shots of their bets (from their ADW) after the fact, and that has always been accepted as proof...as far as i know. Either that or a daily/weekly summary from your ADW.

Robert Goren
02-05-2013, 01:28 AM
You could have your bets all typed up on the message board and hit submit as the horses leave the gate.

thaskalos
02-05-2013, 04:21 AM
Would anyone here have any idea how I would go about setting something like this up, in terms of rigorously, unfakeably documented proof? (I would prefer to do this on an ongoing, consistent basis, throughout the entire process/time span...and being an ADW newb I'm not even really sure if total records provided by the service itself at the end of the challenge would be able to constitute the "level of proof" I'm hoping for...i.e., how would I be able to prove I didn't photoshop the results, etc?)

If you are really able to turn $200 dollars into $500,000 in less than three years...do you think that you will worry much about whether the members here believe you or not?

You will, no doubt, have plenty of other things to think about then...

Good luck. :)

traynor
02-05-2013, 02:31 PM
If you are really able to turn $200 dollars into $500,000 in less than three years...do you think that you will worry much about whether the members here believe you or not?

You will, no doubt, have plenty of other things to think about then...

Good luck. :)

The altruistic intent to "give something back" is commendable. I am sure that more than a few will follow the experiment with great interest. I am equally sure that the method (software, methodology, whatever) used to produce such results will increase in value (or at least in perceived value) in direct proportion to the increased size of the bankroll.

traynor
02-05-2013, 03:26 PM
Hey there guys,

I'll be using an ADW, for the first time I ever have (Twinspires to start with), starting sometime in February, with the hope that I can document running up a starting bankroll of $200, to at least $500,000 over the next 35 months. My intention is to basically offer something as close to proof as we might reasonably come to achieving, via this documentation, that such a thing is (still) possible to achieve, in wagering exclusively on thoroughbred races run in North America.

Would anyone here have any idea how I would go about setting something like this up, in terms of rigorously, unfakeably documented proof? (I would prefer to do this on an ongoing, consistent basis, throughout the entire process/time span...and being an ADW newb I'm not even really sure if total records provided by the service itself at the end of the challenge would be able to constitute the "level of proof" I'm hoping for...i.e., how would I be able to prove I didn't photoshop the results, etc?)

I think that "proof" is going to be disputed, regardless of how convincing it may seem in the planning stage. I would suggest posting selections on the PA selections thread before the races as the most convincing proof. I understand the problem of too many readers jumping on the choices posted pre-race, but I think in the real world it would be minimal. I think a lot of people follow the selections threads, but more because they are interested in the bottom line outcomes of individual posters, rather than actually betting on the selections posted.

One of the immediate problems that would eliminate is the suggestion of server admin hanky-panky (for example, if the selections were posted on your website, or some other website to which admin rights were available).

It is an interesting idea, and I wish you success.

DeltaLover
02-05-2013, 04:05 PM
Just give away your password in the end of the day to a three or more people who each of them will publish a screenshot of your your banroll behavior on a thread on this site. you can chage your password every day after this procedure is completed so nobody will be able to be in your account until the end of next day.

traynor
02-05-2013, 05:03 PM
Just give away your password in the end of the day to a three or more people who each of them will publish a screenshot of your your banroll behavior on a thread on this site. you can chage your password every day after this procedure is completed so nobody will be able to be in your account until the end of next day.

Having more than a little experience with suspicous people and conspiracy theories, the possibility of setting up duplicate accounts and doing a "Mike Warren" number should not be overlooked, if one's intent is "proof."

Going through some huge amount of effort only to have the "proof" dismissed as "unacceptable" would not be good. The KISS principle applies. The easiest way to supply the proof is by posting selections pre-race on a PA selection thread. Anything more complex smacks of chicanery (or possible chicanery) right out of the gate.

It is an admirable intent that should be applauded. Eliminating after-the-fact complaints of possible deception seems useful, given the spirit of the intent--proving it is possible to consistently win over long periods of time.

Your suggestion seems reasonable, except for the (typical) knee-jerk response, "If I don't believe one person, why should I believe four?" Anyone who has dealt with touts at a racetrack or shills in a casino (or private poker game) will readily understand that "social proof" equates to no proof. Collusion would have to be ruled out, and that makes it increasingly complex to "prove" anything. At least for any other than those willing to suspend (or completely avoid) critical analysis and accept whatever claims are made as valid because they read them on the Internet.

Mike A
02-08-2013, 06:02 PM
Thanks, guys, I appreciate each of you taking the time to give me your best advice. (And the well-wishings, and the humor also :) ) I'm considering and weighing all of these options/ideas.

Couple of small points:

thaskalos-- I explained in the 3rd post in the thread that it has nothing to do with what anyone thinks of me; rather I'd just like to show something of what's still possible in whatever way I can. If that ends up giving a few people some inspiration, I'd be happy about that.

traynor-- You said: "I understand the problem of too many readers jumping on the choices posted pre-race, but I think in the real world it would be minimal."

I get that generally there's not a lot to worry about when posting selections. And I wouldn't assume I'd be singled out as some special case at all. But as I implied, when you think of the hopefully strong documentation of results (and among those, I'm pretty confident I can maintain a relatively high ROI into the future), over a very long timeframe, it is something of a legitimate concern, especially since the consistency of the ongoing documentation process would be of prime importance to that process.