View Full Version : Elimination Guidelines
trying2win
02-05-2004, 03:30 PM
Even when betting on some of Al Stanley's harness race angles, I still don't bet on every one that appears in the past performances.
Before considering betting on one of these "angle" horses, I use certain guidelines for eliminations, like:
--No bet if driver is below 6% wins over a fairly lengthy period.
--No bet if the horse has been laid off longer than 14 days.
--No bet if the horse has win average of below 8% in the current year (or in the last 2 years, if a horse hasn't started too many times in the current year).
--No bet if the horse is below 5-1 in the morning line. (exception: For the Three Factor Impact Angle, I'll accept a ML of 4-1 or less.
--No bet if the field is comprised of 6 horses or less.
--No bet on maiden races, NW2, condtioned claiming races, or stakes races.
--No bet on shippers starting for the 1st time at a different track, unless it's from the same racing circuit.
--No bet if the horse has broken stride two races in-a-row or more without any excuse. I may even eliminate a horse if it has a history of being a chronic breaker.
--No bet if the horse has won two races or more in-a-row.
--No bet on horses 10 years or older. I'm even fussy at times about betting on horses that are 9 years old.
--No bet on a horse if he was a scratch of any kind in it's last race.
--No bet of a horse who ran in a qualifying race last time.
--No bets on horses at half-mile oval harness tracks (too many short-priced winners at those tracks, in my experience).
--I may even eliminate a horse from consideration, if the trainer has a very low win percentage, a horse has lost by more than 10 lengths the last two starts without an excuse, the horse is moving up in class too much, the horse is consistently too slow, or it's box score shows the best mile marks over the last two years and it's best lifetime marks aren't very good.
--I may limit the amount of spot plays by doing this pre-race screening, but it eliminates a lot of bad percentage plays in my experience. Even though low-priced angle winners may win at a higher win rate, in my book it's too difficult to make a profit betting them to win. That's why I designate them a bad percentage play too for win betting.
--It may look time-consuming to remember a lot of elimination guidelines, but it really isn't after a lot of practice. As they say, after years of experience it becomes second nature. Of
course, every harness handicapper is different and have their own criteria for elimination guidelines before considering a bet.
T2W
sq764
02-06-2004, 12:23 AM
T2W, my only objection with your theory would be:
--No bet if the field is comprised of 6 horses or less.
If a horse is sharp, at bettable odds and fits well, I don't care if he's in a 2 or 12 horse field..
trying2win
02-06-2004, 12:47 AM
Originally posted by sq764
T2W, my only objection with your theory would be:
--No bet if the field is comprised of 6 horses or less.
If a horse is sharp, at bettable odds and fits well, I don't care if he's in a 2 or 12 horse field..
SQ,
You have a good point there. Some other bettors have told me that as well, that they don't mind betting a race with 6 horses in it, as long as they get the price they want. I'm assuming they're
toteboard watchers. I just use the morning line odds as my guide. That doesn't suit everybody either, but the ML works okay for me. Saves a lot of stress and time, when you're trying to bet several tracks at the same time...especially on the weekend cards that usually have the better quality horses running. There's apt to be more eligible bets for me on these weekend cards.
One track I find that is an exception, is Dover Downs. They have a lot of quality fields and bettable races right though the week. In that regard, Dover Downs is unlike most harness tracks whose early-in-the week cards are filled with unbettable maiden, NW2, bottom condition, bottom claiming and cheap condition claiming races. But then again, every bettor is different. The races I usually describe as unbettable, could be another horseplayer's favorite kind.
T2W
Exactaman
02-06-2004, 12:11 PM
Originally posted by trying2win
--No bet if the horse has been laid off longer than 14 days.
--No bet if the horse has win average of below 8% in the current year (or in the last 2 years, if a horse hasn't started too many times in the current year).
--No bet if the horse is below 5-1 in the morning line. (exception: For the Three Factor Impact Angle, I'll accept a ML of 4-1 or less.
--No bet if the field is comprised of 6 horses or less.
--No bet on shippers starting for the 1st time at a different track, unless it's from the same racing circuit.
--No bet if the horse has won two races or more in-a-row.
--No bet on horses 10 years or older. I'm even fussy at times about betting on horses that are 9 years old.
--No bet on a horse if he was a scratch of any kind in it's last race.
--No bet of a horse who ran in a qualifying race last time.
--No bets on horses at half-mile oval harness tracks (too many short-priced winners at those tracks, in my experience).
--the horse is moving up in class too much or it's box score shows the best mile marks over the last two years and it's best lifetime marks aren't very good.
interesting. generally i eliminate horses because of poor form. i may eliminate borderline horses based on some of the factors you mentioned. i don't agree with the ones i quoted above, here's why:
i'm comfortable up to 21 days.
i don't really care about his long term win average, current form is the key.
ml is pretty meaningless to me. if the final odds are there, i'll take it regardless of ml.
i like big fields too, but again, if the price is there in a short field, fine.
i will look at some of the down under imports first time at m1. at balmoral, i'll give all shippers a look.
two wins in a row is likely to depress the odds but i will still set my price. such horses are almost definitely in form and by definition a good play at the right price.
few 10 year olds in the races i bet, but form is key.
depends. scratch and immediate return next week, i will consider but probably demand higher price.
horses with good q's may be worth bet at price.
i don't like the half-milers but if i see a horse i've been following shipping to one i will consider a play.
moving up in class can mean a good price. if he fits form and ability wise he fits. lifetime marks etc. are meaningless to me. again current form is the key.
JustRalph
02-06-2004, 01:43 PM
Originally posted by sq764
T2W, my only objection with your theory would be:
--No bet if the field is comprised of 6 horses or less.
If a horse is sharp, at bettable odds and fits well, I don't care if he's in a 2 or 12 horse field..
I don't know about this one. I know there are a few tracks out there where a bad post can cripple a horses chances in a large field. Especially in Turf races where late runners need room to make their move.
I have to a agree generally except when the post is horrible.
trying2win
02-06-2004, 02:57 PM
Exactaman,
--Very good observations. Every harness handicapper has their own set of criteria when it comes to eliminations of what they feel are non-contenders. Same deal when it comes to choosing a bet amongst their contenders. That's why I listed the word "guidelines" and not "rules".
A few exceptions: I know from experience, that some trainers are very good at winning with their horses on the first start after a layoff of let's say three weeks or more. Another exception (it doesn't happen that often)...when a horse qualifies in faster time than any other entrant in the race has posted in their last race, this qualifier can become a possible win contender.
--Even though I'm a big fan of Al Stanley's theories, knowledge and bettable angles etc. on harness races, I don't always agree on some of his advice on elimination guidelines, or types of angles to consider for bets. By trial and error and judging by past results, I try to narrow down which angles have produced the best results over a period of time at the tracks I like to play.
Betting certain harness race angles seems to be a niche that works best for me. Just using traditional handicapping methods that everybody else uses, is my weak point and usually results in red ink over a period of time.
T2W
trying2win
02-06-2004, 03:48 PM
Originally posted by JustRalph
I don't know about this one. I know there are a few tracks out there where a bad post can cripple a horses chances in a large field. Especially in Turf races where late runners need room to make their move.
I have to a agree generally except when the post is horrible.
Ralph,
With the thoroughbreds, I'm not usually too concerned with the post postion of a horse I want to bet (maybe I should be). With the harness races, I am concerned somewhat with post position.
With an outside post in the harness races, I prefer that the reinsman is amongst the best half dozen drivers at the track. Again this is not a "rule", but just a preference I have. If a horse I like is going from an outside post and the odds are decent, I'll still bet the horse as long as it is driven by a capable driver. I suspect a lot of the public are afraid of betting a horse from an outside post
at the harness races. Not me, that's where you can get some dandy win payoffs.
T2W
I like the half mile tracks because it adds that post postion monkee wrench into the mix. Some raceds are just quick pass overs becasue you know the rail horse is 3-5 and legit. Leaves more time for those races with a pace element. I have hit some really nice prices wtih horses from the 8 hole at Batavia in races where a hot pace set it up for the stretch runner.
Medowlands is hard for me to figure out, but I keep practicing.
This harness game is very much fun and the more races I break down by quarters and efforts to make those shape determinations, the more fun it gets to be.
baseball3109
02-07-2004, 12:45 AM
It is certainly true you can hit that outside post once in awhile even at 1/2 or 5/8 mile track
As t2w said they are either afraid of I thing just rather go with the inside horse or just completly overlook posts 6,7,8 etc. at these tracks.
Exactaman
02-07-2004, 01:18 AM
Originally posted by trying2win
Betting certain harness race angles seems to be a niche that works best for me. Just using traditional handicapping methods that everybody else uses, is my weak point and usually results in red ink over a period of time.
That's great T2W, you gotta have your niche. no two handicappers do it the same i guess!
Exactaman
02-07-2004, 01:24 AM
Originally posted by trying2win
With an outside post in the harness races, I prefer that the reinsman is amongst the best half dozen drivers at the track. Again this is not a "rule", but just a preference I have. If a horse I like is going from an outside post and the odds are decent, I'll still bet the horse as long as it is driven by a capable driver. I suspect a lot of the public are afraid of betting a horse from an outside post
at the harness races. Not me, that's where you can get some dandy win payoffs.
I agree with you T2W. I also feel the driver makes more of a difference from 8 9 10 at M1, and often post 1 too!
at m1 you can often get good prices from the outside. early speed becomes more of a factor from there, they usually need it to get involved. i pay attention to the likely pace scenarion in making my decision here. one thing, esp. in stakes an early developing outer flow can sometimes pull them into the action.
Exactaman
02-07-2004, 01:26 AM
Originally posted by Tom
Medowlands is hard for me to figure out, but I keep practicing.
This harness game is very much fun and the more races I break down by quarters and efforts to make those shape determinations, the more fun it gets to be.
Fun it is! break down those fractions, that will def. help you make sense of m1 fields. you have to demand value there.
sq764
02-07-2004, 01:27 AM
I agree to a point.. Superb early speed is good from the 8-10 hole, but decent speed can be a killer. It can get you in the 3 hole on the rail around the turn, and by the half, you are shuffled to last..
If you leave from the 8-10 hole at BigM, you better get the top or the 2 hole, other wise, you are better off working out cover flow from the back..
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