Withers Stakes (10 derby points)

[Robert Fischer]

Race 9 Aqueduct Saturday 2/2

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Long River Ortiz I Jr 116 FTL
1a Valid Alvarado J 116
2 Revolutionary Castellano J J 116 L
3 Escapefromreality Ortiz J L 116 L
4 Amerigo Vespucci Rodriguez E D 116 Blk-On L
5 Siete de Oros Remedio M 118 L
6 Champion Boy Castro E 116 L
7 Smooth Bert Luzzi M J 118 L


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/KiaranMcLaughlin/MCLAUGHLIN+KIARAN+P/9999/summary.html

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=AQU&race=9&date=2013-02-02

[redshift1]

Revolutionary another 3/5 morning line on Saturday.

[plainolebill]

Revolutionary another 3/5 morning line on Saturday.

I'd have a hard time taking 3/5 on a horse that just broke it's maiden in it's 4th try.

[Bennie]

Going against Revolutionary myself as I read no works in 2 weeks because of concern for track conditions on the Belmont training track. Maybe a little short tomorrow and winning at this stage is not necessary. Haven't fully reviewed the race yet but may lean to Long River or Amerigo if the price is right

[Vinnie]

:4: Amerigo Vespucci is very interesting in here. Showing great works and if he improves and shows that good late zip like the few efforts before his last, could make some noise.

Also, the :1a: Valid with Alvarado showing exceptional works and fitness could be improving most of the bunch. Revolutionary could smoke em, but, if he is up for even a slightly dull effort, one of the other (2) mentioned could provide a decent price.

Good luck everyone....

[precocity]

Think Revolutionary is going to blow them off there feet? just go ahead and make him your key on top. :sleeping:

[precocity]

Think Revolutionary is going to blow them off there feet? just go ahead and make him your key on top. :sleeping:
:2: :1: :5: :4: :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Race reminds me of the Sam Davis at Tampa,in that the favorite looks legitimate but not great enough for a bet.Using Bris PP's that 108-103 for Revolutionary is 10 points better than anybody here.Was accomplished on an offtrack and it's been 36 days and 1,4 furlong work nearly 2 weeks ago.Not a ton of speed in here but the 3 coming out of a sprint with a 106 108 91 line is going to string them out here.I like the 1 entry here.Long River,AP Indy colt out of an Awesome Again mare was asked a lot in his stakes debut 2nd layoff off his maiden win.Think he runs big here.Value bet.Will play with favorite and #5 in exactas,like the even running line 87-93-93-92 on the #5 1st out at 2 turns.Has been overlooked nearly every single time out.41-1 in last.

Good luck!

[precocity]

going wps on the :1: big time :rolleyes:

[precocity]

:2: :1: :5: :4: :cool:
tri and super :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

$3.50 horses giving me heart attacks today :mad:

[CincyHorseplayer]

That was nuts!What a race by Revolutionary,chalk or no chalk!

[iceknight]

the jockey did not place :2: Revolutionary in the best position (actually a miserable trip). but the horse has amazing kick and still surged through.. one to watch out for!

[precocity]

:mad: :mad: oh well that Revolutionary is a bad mofo!!!!!bet wps on the :1: and played super an tri and didnt hit jack :D

[KirisClown]

WN8GX6OQSuo

[VeryOldMan]

the jockey did not place :2: Revolutionary in the best position (actually a miserable trip). but the horse has amazing kick and still surged through.. one to watch out for!

Wow - different strokes for different folks; I thought :1a:'s terrible stumble at the start messed with :2: and that Castellano played the hand he'd been dealt pretty well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

:mad: :mad: oh well that Revolutionary is a bad mofo!!!!!bet wps on the :1: and played super an tri and didnt hit jack :D

Yeah I had the 3 leading the pack and the 1 laying off the pace.If you can't predict the paceflow you likely ain't gettin the cashflow!!:cool:

The 1 with 1st lasix ran a real dud.

[iceknight]

Wow - different strokes for different folks; I thought :1a:'s terrible stumble at the start messed with :2: and that Castellano played the hand he'd been dealt pretty well. Actually, after watching the replay a second time I agree with you! But, if he had so much horse, he could have taken the outer route is what I was thinking initially

[menifee]

That was a bad race (talent wise). Revolutionary has some potential, but that was a slow race (86). He either regressed badly off the impressive maiden race or the trip cost him a lot. I think it was more the trip. One to watch, but he passed a lot of bad tired horses in the stretch.

[precocity]

Yeah I had the 3 leading the pack and the 1 laying off the pace.If you can't predict the paceflow you likely ain't gettin the cashflow!!:cool:

The 1 with 1st lasix ran a real dud.
I even wheel the :2: over 4 and still didnt have that :3: :D sometime I can be so good at racing and somtimes I suck big time. :cool:

[depalma113]

So sad that Winstar has chosen to race Revolutionary only once more before the Derby. Asking for an awful lot to get him into the field.

[Tom]

If this race got an 84, how does the Busher get an 82?
The 84 looks in line with the other routes, but the 82 looks much too high.
I don't see the track as changing during the day, based on Beyer figs.
Timer malfuncti0n that Beyer caught, maybe?

[RaceBookJoe]

I was pulling for Smooth Bert, gave a decent run and actually had the lead on the last turn.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If this race got an 84, how does the Busher get an 82?
The 84 looks in line with the other routes, but the 82 looks much too high.
I don't see the track as changing during the day, based on Beyer figs.
Timer malfuncti0n that Beyer caught, maybe?

An 84?Man at least we won't get the Gemologist ie Aqueduct brilliance interpretation this entire spring up til the Derby!Although maybe the Florida track bias leading to big figs will come up?And if not they can all be discredited by pedigree.Either way except for us deliberately pleasure seeking selves,it will be a miserable run to the Triple Crown!:cool:

[classhandicapper]

If this race got an 84, how does the Busher get an 82?
The 84 looks in line with the other routes, but the 82 looks much too high.
I don't see the track as changing during the day, based on Beyer figs.
Timer malfuncti0n that Beyer caught, maybe?

Race broken out due to the slow pace.

[letswastemoney]

Race broken out due to the slow pace.
Doesn't this hurt handicappers who don't realize the Beyer is projected and upgrade the figure a few points in their mind once they see the slow pace? I understand why they break it out, but I say leave it up to each handicapper to interpret the data.

[classhandicapper]

Doesn't this hurt handicappers who don't realize the Beyer is projected and upgrade the figure a few points in their mind once they see the slow pace? I understand why they break it out, but I say leave it up to each handicapper to interpret the data.

I just had that debate privately with some friends this weekend.

Not only does it leave more sophisticated players screwed for the very reason you are suggesting, bumping up a figure like that on the race level assumes that all the horses in a race with a very fast or very slow pace were impacted equally. Nothing could be further from the truth.

[DeltaLover]

In my opinion Revolutionary is a very mediocre horse; his father burned a lot of cash and he will do the same again.... I am looking forward to see him again running as the odds on choice of the public...

[classhandicapper]

In my opinion Revolutionary is a very mediocre horse; his father burned a lot of cash and he will do the same again.... I am looking forward to see him again running as the odds on choice of the public...

I'm not sure what anyone saw in that race to be impressed by him.

He hasn't been very good from the gate in most of his races. So it's not like you can be certain the bad start by Valid right next to him had some negative impact on him. He didn't get bumped or anything.

He didn't get a chance to do his best running until mid stretch or so, but he had a relatively easy trip sitting behind the action before that and didn't go out spectacularly well like he was full of energy after the finish.

The best I can say for him is that his late burst was visually impressive and he was better than that field by more than the margin of victory given the moderate pace he closed into and the limited run he got a chance to make. The thing is, that was a pretty mediocre field. I don't see him as a Derby horse off that.

[Tom]

Race broken out due to the slow pace.

Good discussion of Saturday's figures at Aqueduct between Byk and TLG on Tuesday's 2nd hour.

[Thomas Roulston]

It's back to sprints - or at most, one-turn miles - for Siete De Oros.

[PVDOZ]

Revolutionary,to me, is a cross between Dublin and Winter Memories. Dublin because the talent seems to be immeasurable,but the colt is a serious headcase.Winter Memories cause of her running style.
That being said,every prep i've seen tells me that this is a year that a case can be made for a dozen horses. Ane the Derby,by its nature is anyones race. And so it seems that Revolutionary has as good a chance as any others to win the Derby. And it will be at a square price despite what i've read here.
Remember...i'm talking about chances to win the Derby..not predicting greatness.