Sam F. Davis Stakes (10 derby points)

[Robert Fischer]

Race 11 Tampa Saturda 2/2

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Northern Lion Husbands P 116 L
1A Dynamic Sky Contreras L 116 L
2 Silver Day Pedroza M 116 L
3 Divine Ambition Martinez W 116 L
4 My Name Is Michael Rosario J 116 L
5 Speak Logistics Serpa A 120 L
6 Lightning Stone Coa D 116
7 Balino Goodwin N 116 L
8 Falling Sky Saez L 116 L
9 Midnite Poppa Lezcano J 116 L

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Vinery/SILVER+TRAIN/2002/summary.html

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=TAM&race=11&date=2013-02-02

[Robert Fischer]

Thank God for Tampa Bay.

This is a nice betting race.

strong 1entry
Dynamic Sky - 1st Pasco,2nd in G1futurity, 6thJuvenile
and Northern Lion - last out Gulfstream maiden winner.

My Name is Michael - 2nd in Display, moves to Bill Mott barn.

Speak Logistics - was Plesa's #1 before Itsmyluckyday won the Holy Bull.

Falling Sky - Sales topper $425K for the Jan2013 OBS. Exits a strong win.

Midnite Poppa - Developing Zito longshot.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think Casse said he's going to scratch Lion but that still leaves 4 likely pacesetters in 3-5-7-8.Can't see the favorite taking a major step back here and likely to get a perfect trip.The morning line odds of 4-1 aren't real catchy on the 4 Michael,but I like him and think he'll take to the dirt and run big off the layoff.Did so last off layoff.Hit gate 1st out.Took a look at Zito's horse but will have to improve out of a 20K tag event and had a fairly dismal late pace number.Short works for stakes debut also.Would like to get 7/2 on the 4 horse but can't envision any enticing scenarios this race.Good luck!

[Robert Fischer]

I like the 5 here, but it's one of those races where the horse could be an all-or-nothing type. If he gets a reasonable lead(or inherits the lead mid-way) under Serpa, it will make him dangerous.

I was really surprised looking at the 8's last race. He went up against an honest pace horse in Singanothersong? and I was really surprised how he shook that horse off when set down to the drive. The sale surprised me a little too, as it was this January. Then you have the barn change to worry about, although Terranova does pretty well @ Tampa.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I like the 5 here, but it's one of those races where the horse could be an all-or-nothing type. If he gets a reasonable lead(or inherits the lead mid-way) under Serpa, it will make him dangerous.

I was really surprised looking at the 8's last race. He went up against an honest pace horse in Singanothersong? and I was really surprised how he shook that horse off when set down to the drive. The sale surprised me a little too, as it was this January. Then you have the barn change to worry about, although Terranova does pretty well @ Tampa.

I'm sittin here looking at the 8 too.Was able to back up off that sprint pace and win 1.5 lengths off at the 2nd call.Had a 100-92 pace/speed.Won 1st out and has solid drills.Like that they are 5f too.The running style reminds me of Fort Larned before the Whitney.Can lay just a tad off the pace and make a late run.The only thing I'd be concerned with is how headstrong many are off a layoff.Lots to like though.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Small bet on 8.

[Tom]

:4: :9:

[Robert Fischer]

uh oh ...

[Robert Fischer]

nooooooo

looked like he just checked in traffic, through no fault of the winner...

[Tom]

TVG - nice, cover it all up with graphics! :D

[iceknight]

I'm sittin here looking at the 8 too.Was able to back up off that sprint pace and win 1.5 lengths off at the 2nd call.Had a 100-92 pace/speed.Won 1st out and has solid drills.Like that they are 5f too.The running style reminds me of Fort Larned before the Whitney.Can lay just a tad off the pace and make a late run.The only thing I'd be concerned with is how headstrong many are off a layoff.Lots to like though.
Good call on the :8: guys!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Good call on the :8: guys!

Thanks man.I've only been betting the 3yo preps with PP's.Ive made 4 bets in 3 races.Got this guy and Lucky last week.

[iceknight]

Thanks man.I've only been betting the 3yo preps with PP's.Ive made 4 bets in 3 races.Got this guy and Lucky last week. the call was good, but what do you think about your scenarios analysis :) isnt horse racing fun!?

[CincyHorseplayer]

the call was good, but what do you think about your scenarios analysis :) isnt horse racing fun!?

I had the 3 horse leading in the Withers too and the 1 laying off the pace and lost that one.This had a ton of speed,I didn't like either favorite at the odds and he wins on the lead,which I thought was ballsy because I had the race a 42 x 2 and he just outsprints the field!I was crabas$ing on the backstretch when he lightened up though!The Holy Bull at least played out the vision!

That's why I will never bet 3yo's that are favorites ever,ever.Well 5/2 maybe!