Holy Bull Stakes

[redshift1]

400K 1 1/16th Miles, Saturday 1/26/13

Notable winners: Barbaro, Go For Gin

Possible entries:

Frac Daddy
Shanghai Bobby
Bern Identity
Clearly Now
Dewey Square
Itsmyluckyday
Sr. Quisqueyano
Tulira Castle


Without seeing the PP's Shanghai Bobby is the likely heavy favorite.
There are some relatively unknown horses entered at least 5 by my count.

Derby Points:
10 points for 1st , a month to go before it becomes 50 for 1st (Feb 23rd).

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[redshift1]

PP's are up.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm

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[Robert Fischer]

pretty nice field.

If you think Shanghai Bobby was simply immature at the top of the stretch in the Juvenile, he's a worthy favorite.

May get 7/5 with people taking a shot against him.

3 or 4 others capable of a challenge, and Shanghai Bobby was fortunate to draw inside.

[precocity]

I think Bern Identity is going to take a step up and bust them at the wire. :cool:

[redshift1]

Seems like the maintrack 2012 BC winners are not doing so well next out. will be looking to SB, not sure who yet.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I doubt anybody is firing real hard in their first start of the year after a BC win.

[Robert Fischer]

There's the quick run to the first turn with the inside bias. Outside posts have struggled.

Shanghai Bobby should be on or near the lead from the rail. It's 2 turns 1 1/16th, but it's practically a 1 turn mile for an inside horse with speed. Then the finish line is the shorter-stretch alternate finish line.
All this should help Shanghai Bobby, unless you think he will stall-out at the top of the stretch and not have time to recover.

[redshift1]

I doubt anybody is firing real hard in their first start of the year after a BC win.

Perhaps, I was thinking along the lines of the Santa Anita main track bias favoring front-runners on BC weekend.

Hightail lost next out, retired
Beholder lost next out
Fort Larned un-raced since BC
Tapizar retired
Groupie Doll lost next out
Trinneberg un-raced since BC

Shanghai Bobby makes his second start at 1 1/16th, this time I think he loses, he was all out to beat what appears to be a weak BC Juvenile field.

.

[Robert Fischer]

Two interesting recent winners over the track draw outside.

Itsmyluckyday flashed serious speed in the Gulfstream Park Derby. He draws post 7. There are some things I like and dislike.

Tulira Castle draws post 8 after an N1x Optional Claiming win. There are major questions regarding his ability to run fast enough, and he draws post 8 here which should cost him as well. Aside from being up against it in this race, I really like this colt.

[redshift1]

There's the quick run to the first turn with the inside bias. Outside posts have struggled.

Shanghai Bobby should be on or near the lead from the rail. It's 2 turns 1 1/16th, but it's practically a 1 turn mile for an inside horse with speed. Then the finish line is the shorter-stretch alternate finish line.
All this should help Shanghai Bobby, unless you think he will stall-out at the top of the stretch and not have time to recover.


He should get some early pressure from the 2 & 3 and possibly the 7 who just won over the track in the GP Derby but I had forgotten about the difference in track configuration sounds like you are making a case for SB. I'm leaning 7-4 so far.

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[pele polo]

I rarely bet Gulfstream but regardless these types of races are usually tough to handicap with so many rapidly developing three year olds.

Looking at the PP's two things stand out to me...

#8 Tulira Castle - 30/1 ML w/ Javier Castellano up and the horse has never been worse than 2nd in four career starts.

#9 Fredricksburg- 30/1 ML w/ Matz and J. Velazquez. He was 2nd last out to the #8.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Perhaps, I was thinking along the lines of the Santa Anita main track bias favoring front-runners on BC weekend.

Hightail lost next out, retired
Beholder lost next out
Fort Larned un-raced since BC
Tapizar retired
Groupie Doll lost next out
Trinneberg un-raced since BC

Shanghai Bobby makes his second start at 1 1/16th, this time I think he loses, he was all out to beat what appears to be a weak BC Juvenile field.

.

There were no quitters who won any of the BC races and 2 horses won from off the pace including Groupie Doll.Trinniberg and Fort Larned were allowed uncontested leads.There was no bias on BC days.Those that did win and are aiming to do so again this season aren't going to be geared up in January-February.I think the whole bias track notion is obscuring the view of all this because it didn't affect the races those two days nor is the reason horses are losing first starts in 2013.

[pele polo]

Perhaps, I was thinking along the lines of the Santa Anita main track bias favoring front-runners on BC weekend.

Hightail lost next out, retired
Beholder lost next out
Fort Larned un-raced since BC
Tapizar retired
Groupie Doll lost next out
Trinneberg un-raced since BC

Shanghai Bobby makes his second start at 1 1/16th, this time I think he loses, he was all out to beat what appears to be a weak BC Juvenile field.

.

One of these horses was last down the backstretch in their BC win

[redshift1]

There were no quitters who won any of the BC races and 2 horses won from off the pace including Groupie Doll.Trinniberg and Fort Larned were allowed uncontested leads.There was no bias on BC days.Those that did win and are aiming to do so again this season aren't going to be geared up in January-February.I think the whole bias track notion is obscuring the view of all this because it didn't affect the races those two days nor is the reason horses are losing first starts in 2013.

You could be right, I disagree as do others, note the previous discussion in the last link.


http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/8590545/2012-breeders-cup-groupie-doll-aside-champions-prove-front-runners-advantage

http://www.drf.com/blogs/breeders-cup-saturday-santa-anita

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=98927&page=1

I'm just looking for cause and effect in predicting, there is at least some debate as to whether a bias existed or not. In this specific case I'm speculating Shanghai Bobby benefitted from such and may be vulnerable at GP.

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[CincyHorseplayer]

You could be right, I disagree as do others, note the previous discussion in the last link.


http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/8590545/2012-breeders-cup-groupie-doll-aside-champions-prove-front-runners-advantage

http://www.drf.com/blogs/breeders-cup-saturday-santa-anita

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=98927&page=1

I'm just looking for cause and effect in predicting, there is at least some debate as to whether a bias existed or not. In this specific case I'm speculating Shanghai Bobby benefitted from such and may be vulnerable at GP.

.

The last thread link you put up,take a look at post #7 I put up and tell me what you think.

Regardless that's cool.We all have to follow our own judgement.For me I wouldn't bet any of the BC winners first back because I know they aren't gong to be pushed,even in an allowance race.And with Bobby I won't bet him for the same reason I didn't in the BC,the odds will be hammered down.Although with the point system a 3yo might be pushed harder,faster,sooner.It's going to be an interesting race.Good luck.

[peeptoad]

I'm taking a wait and see approach with this one. I am very interested to see how both Frac Daddy and Dewey Square perform because their last race was abnormally slow (and the track conditions at CD that over the course of the card lead me to believe the BSF for that race is probably not quite what it seems).

[Robert Fischer]

Itsmyluckyday looks like the wise guy horse.

[Tom]

Then I must be a wise guy!
I like him so far.
I do not like Bobby in here.

[redshift1]

Morning Line Odds:

4-5... Shanghai Bobby
8-1... Frac Daddy
12-1... Clearly Now
4-1... Bern identity
20-1... Sr. Quisqueyano
12-1... Dewey Square
6-1 ... Itsmyluckyday
30-1 ... Tulira Council
30-1... Fredricksburg
50-1... Joshuas Comprise

Will start by eliminating Fredricksburg and Joshuas Comprise who don't seem as good as the others at this point in their careers. Also tossing Clearly Now after Avie's Quality just ran up the track. Add Sr. Quisqueyano to the list he was just beaten easily by Itsmyluckyday.

Frac Daddy and Dewey Square Both raced in the KyJC-G2 finishing 2nd and 3rd respectively. Dewey Square a son of Bernardini.

Tulira Counci lightly raced at 30-1 my opinion the best price for the longshots.

Itsmyluckyday Impressive race on Jan 1st followed by a 2/58 work on the 19th.

Shanghai Bobby and Bern identity the favorites.

I'll go with these four in order:

Bern identity
Shanghai Bobby
Dewey Square
Itsmyluckyday

Tulira Council as a longshot.

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[Robert Fischer]

23.17..45.10..1:09.11..1:21.69..1:34.39 ITSMYLUCKYDAY
23.14..45.16..1:09.37..1:22.13..1:35.55 SR. QUISQUEYANO


24.12..46.63..1:10.81..1:23.37..1:36.35 TULIRA CASTLE


I don't know how fast the track was that day, but Tulira Castle is far superior to Sr. Quesqueyano. Itsmyluckyday was impressive however. I had him making a huge improvement after being out-moved in the Jackpot and Dania Beach.

Bobby is beatable, but he's a classy, well-meant Pletcher bullet. He couldn't ask for a better track setup. Itsmyluckyday(9-2 ?) could be 3-4 wide into the first turn.
Even Money could be a fair price for Shanghai Bobby. Maybe it's worth using Bobby with a few others in multi-race bets if you have strong contenders in surrounding legs?

I really like Tulira Castle as a colt, but starting in the 8hole here is going to be an issue. I'm not 100% sure he's fast enough to win, but he is a serious contender for minor awards. If he shows good energy, and gets a bad outside trip, I can make money on him in future races at the appropriate class. 4-1 was a steal last out vs. Fredricksburg. He was best in the Keeneland Allowance.

[redshift1]

Last year Hansen came into this race undefeated but was soundly beaten by Algorithms after quick fractions. Maybe we see a repeat this year in a race that appears more open than the early odds indicate.

I was going to put Itsmyluckyday higher but I can't get around the Delta race at today's distance.

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[precocity]

hope I get 4-1 or more on Bern identity going to unload on him!

[Beachbabe]

23.17..45.10..1:09.11..1:21.69..1:34.39 ITSMYLUCKYDAY
23.14..45.16..1:09.37..1:22.13..1:35.55 SR. QUISQUEYANO


24.12..46.63..1:10.81..1:23.37..1:36.35 TULIRA CASTLE


I don't know how fast the track was that day, but Tulira Castle is far superior to Sr. Quesqueyano. Itsmyluckyday was impressive however. I had him making a huge improvement after being out-moved in the Jackpot and Dania Beach.

Bobby is beatable, but he's a classy, well-meant Pletcher bullet. He couldn't ask for a better track setup. Itsmyluckyday(9-2 ?) could be 3-4 wide into the first turn.
Even Money could be a fair price for Shanghai Bobby. Maybe it's worth using Bobby with a few others in multi-race bets if you have strong contenders in surrounding legs?

I really like Tulira Castle as a colt, but starting in the 8hole here is going to be an issue. I'm not 100% sure he's fast enough to win, but he is a serious contender for minor awards. If he shows good energy, and gets a bad outside trip, I can make money on him in future races at the appropriate class. 4-1 was a steal last out vs. Fredricksburg. He was best in the Keeneland Allowance.


I'll beg to differ. I say Sr. Quesqueyano beats Tulira Castle tomorrow.
You say Itsmyluckyday was impressive but you diss Sr.Q who was coming off a 45 day layoff when he ran second in the GP Derby.
Having said that, there's a distinct possibility that both Sr.q & Its.... bounce off those efforts. Now that I covered my butt with that statement :rolleyes: I'm going to make a small wager on Sr.Q & bet him top & bottom with Shanghai Bobby.

[elysiantraveller]

I'll probably take a stab with Frac Daddy.

[tbwinner]

Frac Daddy for me too. Side bet on the 9-Fredericksburg.

2/1,4,6,9 ex's
Tri's....
2,9/2,9/all
2,9/all/2,9

hoping for SB to run out, and that's not just hoping, I think it's a reasonable chance he might.

[dnlgfnk]

I doubt anybody is firing real hard in their first start of the year after a BC win.

In a $400k G3, with today's mindset of entering stakes horses sparingly, and a point system that nobody is really sure about?

[precocity]

so far
W/P- :4:
TRI BOX- :4: :1: :6: :2: IF THE SB :1: WINS WONT PAY JACK!

SUPER WILL PLAY THE THE ONES I HAVE WITH THE :3: IN SOME WHEELS!
GOOD LUCK.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Interesting race for my first bet of the year!I've got 38 total speed points in here but no burners and GP has been kind to such but now if anytime is right to bet against Bobby.

I like Bern Identity,It'smyluckyday,and Frac Daddy,in that order.

Bern-I think will love going from the tight turns at Delta to this track and the 4 post won't hurt him.Worked well for this and is 4-2-1-1 layoff/1ts.

Lucky-I'm using the PP's from Bris so the pace-speed numbers will be different than most.This guy posted a double top of 122-107 in a 1 turn mile.By far the most complete of all the entrants.Only a 25 day turnaround suggests a bounce but this one has turned around quick after such a manuever and I'll take it at face value and/or he loves this track.

Frac Daddy-Should sit a perfect trip by post and by desired spot 2 lengths back at the half mile.

If we believe the projections of 3's improving 1.5 points a month,considering when these posted their tops,Bobby projects to run a 113,Frac a 110,and Bern a 106.With Lucky's 107 this makes them the top 4.The rest project lower than 100.Bobby is a little unbalanced speed/pace IMO.He ran a 121-86 in the BC and a 68-107 in the Champagne.He'll get some continuous pressure today unless everybody else plays stupid!I've got Frac's best as 81-105,Bern at 97-102,with honorable mentionof the #5 at 120-96.

All this is odds dependant but my big bet will be on Bern at 3-1 or better and I'll take the best odds of the Lucky and Frac.I really like Lucky and think his odds go up from the 6-1 ML.Taking exactas with these two and over top Bobby,using savers at minimum.Then I'll take a $1 tri 4 with 1-5-6 over 2-7.Should get decent money if any of the 5 run 2nd.Total play $43.

[dnlgfnk]

"Lucky-I'm using the PP's from Bris so the pace-speed numbers will be different than most.This guy posted a double top of 122-107 in a 1 turn mile.By far the most complete of all the entrants.Only a 25 day turnaround suggests a bounce but this one has turned around quick after such a manuever and I'll take it at face value and/or he loves this track."

Cincy,
There may be something to like about "Lucky", but it's not the pace/speed numbers, especially in the GP Derby, where Undrafted did all the heavy lifting, hustling from somewhat behind after breaking from the (inherently, subtly slower, IMO) inside. From years of observation, the :21-4 quarter (the naked time of the quarters is explanatory enough w/o need of variants- it gibes with the finish where the field is exceptionally strung out) does not fully reflect the second quarter, but mysteriously explains Undrafted's being roused visually by Velazquez to clear Sr. Quisqeyano and Lucky within the :23 first quarter mile. As he relaxes into an unpressured stride, he clicks off the :21-4 which now affects the rest of the field (see the abberant finishes of Almost English, 8-5 Star Contender).

I suspect that a horse "spins it's wheels" when 1st roused from a relaxed stride in the early portions of races, before extending after some ground has been covered, in order to explain seemingly slow fractions that are actually pressured in part.

Put another way, "It's not how fast a horse runs, it's how he runs fast that counts" --"Charlie", in Andy Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer".

I'm always looking to upgrade slower looking figures, where a horse had a potentially difficult trip that explains his poorer figs. In my initial speculation, after being outrun to the first turn, Dewey Square may have begun his move to contention well wide while still on the later bend of the first turn , essentially using pre-stretch effort without gaining significant ground. Not a four star overlay, but an interesting one.
Good luck today.

[Robert Fischer]

Final thoughts


Shanghai Bobby looks to be a worthy favorite. I see no reason to play against him. I'll still be looking for wager opportunities. He toyed with Bern, he toyed with Goldencents, he toyed with the Juvenile field. Now he has a great post position.

Itsmyluckyday has grown on me a little. I think he is an athletic horse and I think he's matured to the point that this distance is right in his wheelhouse. I expect a slightly wide trip but a clear trip. I don't love him, but he could contend or even win. He has enough talent that a big win could put him on the Derby map.

Dewey Square - It's hard to know until they do something, but this one has all the signs that he as the Potential to improve. He should be bigger and stronger. He likes the distance. I just can't eliminate him from the mix. I'll be surprised if he crushes the field or something, but he should run a good race, and appreciate more distance in the future.

Tulira Castle - I think he's up against it here. I'd love to see him pick up the pieces drive home wide in the stretch for 3rd. Nice horse.


Post Position - It's very likely the inside post positions could move some horses up. Frac Daddy- Has some talent. Hopefully he doesn't lug-in and interfere with anyone here. He should get a great trip here and it makes him hard to toss. Bern Identity- This is a solid enough horse. He's another that will be hard to toss from the vertical exotics due to his post position.

Tough betting race. Good Luck.

[michiken]

:3: is my longshot play.

[Stillriledup]

How's the bias at GP? Can this 1 horse go wire to wire in the 1 path on the gold rail, or, can you close at this place?

[Robert Fischer]

new track record

[Tom]

I was hoping for better than 9-2, but I'll take it. SB ran better than I thoght he would - I thought he was not going to be too tough today.

[precocity]

so far
W/P- :4:
TRI BOX- :4: :1: :6: :2: IF THE SB :1: WINS WONT PAY JACK!

SUPER WILL PLAY THE THE ONES I HAVE WITH THE :3: IN SOME WHEELS!
GOOD LUCK.
lost my azz on this race did have a 50 to show bet on the :3: still lost 340 on the race!!!! was having a good day still up 213$ :rolleyes:

[dnlgfnk]

Kudos, Cincy et.al.

I would still say the winner was an underlay who got the perfect stalk sitting 3rd, but that was probably anticipated by his backers.

[Robert Fischer]

That was a legit race.

Itsmyluckyday proved better than Shanghai Bobby IMO, and was slowly drawing clear as they hit the wire.

The pace was fast, the time was fast. Bobby set a fast pace, but he also had the rail path. - I don't give either horse a huge advantage in trip. It's possible that Bobby had a little better trip, even though he was on the pace. [Itsmyluckyday ran 32 more feet in distance / Trakus]. I don't know how much stock you want to put into the gallop out, but Bobby/Napravnik did gallop out much the best.


I don't give anyone else major upgrades or downgrades. I guess you could say the 3 benefited from being inside speed, and that the 9 Fredricksburg was up-against it with the post position and pace and shouldn't hold this race against him on the turf next out.

[precocity]

most say MR Fischer I do enjoy your post. :ThmbUp:

[Sysonby]

I'm wondering if it's too soon to start getting some pedigree analysis from classhandicapper . . .

[Valuist]

How's the bias at GP? Can this 1 horse go wire to wire in the 1 path on the gold rail, or, can you close at this place?

No gold rail today at GP. Maybe a golden 4 path.

[Sysonby]

I'm wondering if it's too soon to start getting some pedigree analysis from classhandicapper . . .

I'm an idiot, meant Turningforhome

[menifee]

Beyer was 104. Race looked legit and the speed figure seemed to bear that out. I know there are a lot of Pletcher naysayers out there and I'm usually very skeptical of his two year olds going into their three old year, but I still think Shanghai Bobby is a really special horse. He had a tough campaign last year - won the Breeders Cup juvenile and he came back and ran a pretty big race first time back. I have doubts the winner can replicate that form outside of Florida, but I'm pretty sure Shanghai Bobby will have a solid triple crown campaign if he remains healthy.

[RXB]

Shanghai Bobby is bred for 7f-8f. Uncle Mo revisited.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Kudos, Cincy et.al.

I would still say the winner was an underlay who got the perfect stalk sitting 3rd, but that was probably anticipated by his backers.

I made a small profit on it.The exacta/tri bets cut it down.

After two big efforts from Lucky I fully expect him to go down in flames in the FOY.

[turninforhome10]

I made a small profit on it.The exacta/tri bets cut it down.

After two big efforts from Lucky I fully expect him to go down in flames in the FOY.
Took a look at Itsmyluckyday last night and broke down the pedigree. What I am seeing is a a horse that is an outcross in the first 4 gens. As we move back farther we find he is from family 23 which is responsible for 4 KY Derby winners including I'LL Have Another last year. See post for tallies http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1245690&postcount=50
What I see is a horse that has the Nasrullah\Princequillo crosses in the right places. Strong buildup of Tom Fool. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool
which is why I feel that IMLD is able to carry his speed long. Secretariat in his female tale also increases his chances for large heart score.
He seems to me a horse that if he stays sound should be able to carry his speed up to 1 1/8th maybe further if his training regimen stays on track.

[Valuist]

No gold rail today at GP. Maybe a golden 4 path.

Listening to Mike Welsch on Steve Byk's radio show, he reiterated what I thought: the outside was definitely the better part of the track on Saturday.

But because of the fact the 1 1/16 mile races at Gulfstream have the short stretch run and a pretty short run to the first turn, the fact Shanghai Bobby was against the bias may have been negated by his style being suited to the distance and saving ground on both turns. So the best horse probably won anyways.

[magwell]

D S and F D both fell apart on the way to the gate, B I looked good but was never a factor after getting bumped around.... the top 2 if they stay sound have a future although both are suspect at 1&1/4 mile , C N is a neat little colt and he tried hard but was no match for the top 2, J C just picked up the left overs late, the others didn't belong .......:cool:

[Valuist]

D S and F D both fell apart on the way to the gate, B I looked good but was never a factor after getting bumped around.... the top 2 if they stay sound have a future although both are suspect at 1&1/4 mile , C N is a neat little colt and he tried hard but was no match for the top 2, J C just picked up the left overs late, the others didn't belong .......:cool:

I must be getting old because the only initials I figured out were Bern Identity. Can't even remember the other names. But with 12 lengths separating 2nd from 3rd, its likely we won't need to remember the others.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Took a look at Itsmyluckyday last night and broke down the pedigree. What I am seeing is a a horse that is an outcross in the first 4 gens. As we move back farther we find he is from family 23 which is responsible for 4 KY Derby winners including I'LL Have Another last year. See post for tallies http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1245690&postcount=50
What I see is a horse that has the Nasrullah\Princequillo crosses in the right places. Strong buildup of Tom Fool. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool
which is why I feel that IMLD is able to carry his speed long. Secretariat in his female tale also increases his chances for large heart score.
He seems to me a horse that if he stays sound should be able to carry his speed up to 1 1/8th maybe further if his training regimen stays on track.

Great info.I was curious about that TFH.However my response had zero to do with his pedigree and more about his form cycle,that a 3yo with 2 giant efforts back to back is likely to regress.I was wondering about his mares side.Ron was a solid handicap horse.

[Sysonby]

Took a look at Itsmyluckyday last night and broke down the pedigree. What I am seeing is a a horse that is an outcross in the first 4 gens. As we move back farther we find he is from family 23 which is responsible for 4 KY Derby winners including I'LL Have Another last year. See post for tallies http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1245690&postcount=50
What I see is a horse that has the Nasrullah\Princequillo crosses in the right places. Strong buildup of Tom Fool. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool
which is why I feel that IMLD is able to carry his speed long. Secretariat in his female tale also increases his chances for large heart score.
He seems to me a horse that if he stays sound should be able to carry his speed up to 1 1/8th maybe further if his training regimen stays on track.

Very interesting, thanks for the info, TFH!

[plainolebill]

Great info.I was curious about that TFH.However my response had zero to do with his pedigree and more about his form cycle,that a 3yo with 2 giant efforts back to back is likely to regress.I was wondering about his mares side.Ron was a solid handicap horse.

Right after the race the connections were talking about skipping the Fountain of Youth and waiting for the Florida Derby. I don't know how that plays out but I'd rather see him run even if he loses - get all the conditioning he can before the big dance.

[elysiantraveller]

Hard to gather much from that race other than that IMLD and SB are both pretty good cruising through respectable fractions and coming home quick.

I would rate IMLD over SB at this point even considering the layoff... 1) Its Pletcher 2) Does anyone really think this horse is making it to the derby? 3) Its Pletcher....

[CincyHorseplayer]

Right after the race the connections were talking about skipping the Fountain of Youth and waiting for the Florida Derby. I don't know how that plays out but I'd rather see him run even if he loses - get all the conditioning he can before the big dance.

Yep.JUst got done reading that the top two are skipping the FOY.This is why we'll never have a Triple Crown winner in my opinion=nobody is fit enough to win 3 races in 5 weeks when they race normally about once every 5 weeks.I get the rationale but it would be nice to see someone have both a talented enough colt and more grandiose ambitions.That said this seems like a pretty talented,if not just faster group of 3's than in recent years.

[RXB]

Listening to Mike Welsch on Steve Byk's radio show, he reiterated what I thought: the outside was definitely the better part of the track on Saturday.

But because of the fact the 1 1/16 mile races at Gulfstream have the short stretch run and a pretty short run to the first turn, the fact Shanghai Bobby was against the bias may have been negated by his style being suited to the distance and saving ground on both turns. So the best horse probably won anyways.

I watched the eight GP Saturday dirt races again and I saw no evidence of any real outside bias. A substantial portion of the winning & place horses saved ground for most/all of their journeys.

Race #1: :3: was inside speed, finished close 2nd while :5: was two-path mostly before diving to rail in stretch and finishing 3rd

Race #2: :1: rallied on the rail until swinging out for room at the 3/16ths pole and romped

Race #3: :2: went gate-to-wire inside, :3: followed on the rail all the way into the stretch and finished 2nd

Race #4: :4: chased on the rail until moving out for racing room at the 1/4 pole, romped

Race #5: :2: was rail speed and finished a good 2nd

Race #6: The only race where the inside horses finished right out

Race #8: :6: went to the lead on the rail, romped, with the :3: also rail-tripping to finish 2nd

Race #10: :1: (Shanghai Bobby) was rail speed and finished a good 2nd far clear of the others

Track played relatively fair in my view.

[redshift1]

in retrospect I missed the boat with Bern Identity and Dewey Square they failed to compete at all unable to finish ahead of a 130-1 and a 42-1 longshot.

KyJC-G2 graduates Frac Daddy and Dewey Square appear to reaffirm the slow KyJC-G2 beyer by subsequently being distanced in the Holy Bull. Good luck to Uncaptured.

Bern Identity bumped at the start in a really flat effort. Unflattering for Goldencents going forward.

Clearly Now slight surprise since Avie's Quality backed up so badly in a recent stakes race. I see him getting bet next outing.

Shanghai Bobby becomes the 4th BC winner to lose their next start following the 2012 BC.

Nice beyer but the race itself did not provide the Derby winner IMHO. I think Shanghai Bobby is not good enough and Itsmyluckyday will have troubles away from Gulfstream Park.

.

[plainolebill]

Redshift1, I didn't see the race - could you explain why you think Itsmyluckyday will have trouble away from GP?

[redshift1]

Redshift1, I didn't see the race - could you explain why you think Itsmyluckyday will have trouble away from GP?


Main reason: his performances prior to racing at GP were good but not near as good as his last two starts in south Florida. If you toss his grass start of Dec 15th he has run consecutive beyers 14 and 23 pts higher than his previous lifetime best. Obviously the counter argument is that he's an improving three year old. For me to be on the bandwagon I would have to see a similar performance at a different track and that may not happen.

He's razor sharp right now but what about 3 months down the road?

I think he surprised his connections, for some reason they avoided the elite G1 races choosing a more moderate path. It's hard to fault the horse for that but still It makes me wonder.

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[CincyHorseplayer]

Hold on a second here,were talking about a freshly turned 3yo in January who has raced a total of 9 times and won on 3 different tracks,and is going through a time when the biggest spurt of growth and maturity will happen,and is happenning,has a solid sire and a decent dosage for distance.It's far too soon to make claims about what this horse can do in either direction.This sounds more like sour grapes than astute observation.Hell I'd think if you are a genuine fan of the game this horse ought to have your ears pricked and your tail swishing!

[peeptoad]

KyJC-G2 graduates Frac Daddy and Dewey Square appear to reaffirm the slow KyJC-G2 beyer by subsequently being distanced in the Holy Bull. Good luck to Uncaptured.

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This. Prior to the Holy Bull I was of the mind that the KYJC might be a toss for Dewey and Frac, given the nature of the track that day at CD, but after this race they appear just too slow. Frac Daddy may have had a slight excuse due to the quarter issue but, aside from the top 2 here, the rest are tosses going forward...I'm still interested to see what Uncaptured does on return, but I think he's a much better one-turn horse right now.

[Tom]

I have 89 8.5F races at GP in my database - and this was the fastest at both the pace call and final time.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I have 89 8.5F races at GP in my database - and this was the fastest at both the pace call and final time.

Wow.That to me says the 2 horses in front are good,not just taking to the surface.Hopefully this crop shakes it up this season.

[elysiantraveller]

Hard to gather much from that race other than that IMLD and SB are both pretty good cruising through respectable fractions and coming home quick.

I would rate IMLD over SB at this point even considering the layoff... 1) Its Pletcher 2) Does anyone really think this horse is making it to the derby? 3) Its Pletcher....

Had the wrong Pletcher horse...