Monti EX Picks 1/22

[SchagFactorToWin]

results for 1/17

$0.00 Revenue
26.00 Bet
2.80 Rebate
-$23.20 Profit
-135.95 Previous Balance (since 12/31/12)
-159.15 Current Total Profit (Starting Bank Size= $200.00)

straight exacta picks for 1/22

1 1|2
2 1|2
3 2|3
4 2|5
5 1|3
6 1|8
7 9|1
8 5|4
9 2|1
10 3|7
11 1|2
12 5|3
13 2|3

[am1947]

S

Curious as to why every race?

I would think there might be a few that you do not like
or would be poor value?

AM

[SchagFactorToWin]

This is an ongoing test. I should have copy/pasted the intro into each day's picks or used one long thread. Anyway, it has become tiresome! I am ending the test and will write up an explanation of the methodology and what I learned from it.

[lamboguy]

S

Curious as to why every race?

I would think there might be a few that you do not like
or would be poor value?

AMhe is picking the whole card but only trying to cold conk the number. i don't think that's such a bad number. there were guys that were 4 picking every race on every card that was completely useless. they would review their work and show you a race where the 2 horse trick paid $75 and jump for joy.

i don't mind this guy at all. i look forward to seeing the conclusion of his test and the results. if it doesn't work i would love to know how he tweaks the method to make it better.

the only other question i might have is if there are any gate punchers in Monticello like in Dover and Freehold. if there are, no method can produce winning results.

the way that a stay at home player can beat Freehold and Dover is to play horses that are not going to leave and be anywhere near the pace. when you hit, you get over paid.

if you are a good trip handicapper, you can win at the Meadowlands this year also. the best horse don't get you to the money in that place.

[mrroyboy]

All comments, opinions etc are welcome on this site. Just as long as they don't insult people intentionally. My attitude is "I can learn anything from anyone even if I don't agree with them..

Just my opinion but welcome all posters to this site.

[CHeCK EyE]

I agree whole-heartedly roy. I enjoy reading everyones opinion and if I can learn something all the better!

I always just wish I had the programs to keep up with everyones picks! Then I can really try and get my head around some of the various strategies here on the forum. Plus share some of my own.

[SchagFactorToWin]

Here's the thinking behind my recent exacta experiment.

I use a spot bet method which produces about 2-3 picks per card at Yonkers and Monticello. Their nine weekly cards require about 9-12 hours to handicap, so time limits the number of tracks I can use. (I am planning on computerizing the entire process over the summer.)

Each horse gets a Speed Rating. If the horse with the top SR in a race also has the proper Form and Class ratings, then it is a betable pick. All 3 ratings (speed, form and class) were developed by me around 1980 and are proprietary.

If I graph out the win rate of each horse's SR position in all races, the best SR wins more races than the second highest SR, the second best SR horse wins more races than the third best, etc.:
RANK WIN %
1 34.0%
2 21.5%
3 13.3%
4 11.3%
5 8.2%
6 6.0%
7 3.8%
8 1.8%

When the form and class ratings are added in, the top horse win rate increases significantly:
RANK
1 47.2%
2 14.5%
3 11.4%
4 8.4%
5 6.6%
6 5.6%
7 4.8%
8 1.5%

Since there is a nice correlation between SR and win rate, I thought the rolling Pick 3s at Monti deserved further examination. So I kept track of them for about a year and it showed a decent profit when using 2-3 horses per leg, although their were a number of issues:

1) a high bankroll was needed
2) most of the profit came from a relatively low number of high payouts
3) low pool size limits the bet size

However, now that I had this pool of data, I played around a bit with some variations. I thought the top SR with the second best SR would be a good 1|2 EX bet, but I also noticed that playing them 2|1 showed an unusually nice profit. That's how the experiment worked. I simply took my top 2 horses by Speed Rating and played them backwards, hoping for some nice payouts.

But, as the experiment showed, my hypothesis was rejected. Too dependent on large payouts, which are problematic at 1/2 mile tracks.

Back to spot betting!