Brohamer's pace calculations

[jasperson]

I am giving Brohamer's pace calcutaions another try. I have added corrections to the times based on the drf tv as he outlined in his book. What I need is some one that normally does his calculations that I can compare results with and have him critique my pp line selection and anything else that I might be doing wrong.
Please let me know if you are willing to do this either by this forum of by private email
Rgd,
Jack

[jasperson]

Attached is my Brohamer pace calculation for today at AQU. It is best viewed with notepad. PPL is the pp line I selected

[jasperson]

Since AQU canceled let's try again

[Tom]

Are you using Excel to make the figs, or by hand?

[jasperson]

Are you using Excel to make the figs, or by hand?
Get the data from bris and use my own basic program.

[jasperson]

My picks based on Brohamer

1 :3:
2 :5:
3 :6: Because the other top 2's haven't any pace lines at 1 mile
4 :7:
5 :4:
6 no pick
7 :6: big class drop and early speed
8 :4:
9 :1: The :10: is rated first but I don't like the post and he is a shipper from LRL

[Capper Al]

I am giving Brohamer's pace calcutaions another try. I have added corrections to the times based on the drf tv as he outlined in his book. What I need is some one that normally does his calculations that I can compare results with and have him critique my pp line selection and anything else that I might be doing wrong.
Please let me know if you are willing to do this either by this forum of by private email
Rgd,
Jack

I didn't like the results from Brohamer's pace. I had better luck with Giles. Even if Giles method doesn't win, the pace was called correctly. I could see the pace duel unfold in the race, not the same for Brohamer.

[jasperson]

I didn't like the results from Brohamer's pace. I had better luck with Giles. Even if Giles method doesn't win, the pace was called correctly. I could see the pace duel unfold in the race, not the same for Brohamer.
That is why I print out Quirin's running style and speed points. In the 2nd race I see a possible speed duel between the :5: E5,the :7: E6 and :10: E3. The :5: has much better early speed and should get a easy lead.

[shouldacoulda]

That is why I print out Quirin's running style and speed points. In the 2nd race I see a possible speed duel between the :5: E5,the :7: E6 and :10: E3. The :5: has much better early speed and should get a easy lead.

I don't see the race the same. I see the 7 having the early speed and there could very well be a 4 way duel. The way the pace shapes up though, I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 snatches the race away from all of them. He just might if they don't get too far ahead of him. JMO from looking at the pace lines. I don't do "calculations"

[redeye007]

I always got fairly decent results selecting the paceline that was was most representative of todays distance and surface and selecting the paceline with the best bris TPR ( total pace rating i.e. E2 + LP ) sometimes going back as far as 12 months. :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

My picks based on Brohamer

1 :3:
2 :5:
3 :6: Because the other top 2's haven't any pace lines at 1 mile
4 :7:
5 :4:
6 no pick
7 :6: big class drop and early speed
8 :4:
9 :1: The :10: is rated first but I don't like the post and he is a shipper from LRL
care to tell us which track these picks are for?

[shouldacoulda]

care to tell us which track these picks are for?

I believe Aqueduct

[shouldacoulda]

That 2nd race was a little odd. The 7 got steadied from the start and the 2 looked like he got cut off on the far turn and pulled back a little but still came on to round out the super at 24-1. Glad I passed wagering and just watched. I completely overlooked the 9 which was stupid on my part.

[jasperson]

My picks based on Brohamer

1 :3: finished 3Rd
2 :5: out of the money
3 :6: Because the other top 2's haven't any pace lines at 1 mile Won $2.80
4 :7: out of the money
5 :4: out of the money
6 no pick
7 :6: big class drop and early speed out of the money
8 :4: out of the money
9 :1: The :10: is rated first but I don't like the post and he is a shipper from LRL
Won 11$.20

Lost $4.00

[Capper Al]

As I mentioned, with Giles I can see the race unfold even if I lost it and am, thereby, satisfied that Giles works. With the other pace methods, too many times my calculated early pace horse falls apart and some horse calculated to be 'off the pace' gets the early lead.

[jasperson]

Comparing Brohamer Pace vs Bris vs my oddsline
Pace
EP $2.80,$3.20,$6.10=$12.10
SP $2.80,$11.20=$14.00
AP none

Bris Prime Power
$2.80,$3.80,$7.20=$13.80

Bris Early Pace
$2.80,$3.80,$6.20,$11.20=$24.oo

My Oddsline
Top Pick
$2.80,$6.10=#8.90

Early pace
$11.00,$3.80,$6.10,$5.10=$26.00

I looks like early pace is the way to go at Aqueduct.
I realize this is only one test so I will continue on with it for the next several weeks

[traynor]

Brohamer's pace calculations work a lot better with accurate variants. The ones Tom produced (and sold years ago, dunno if he still does) worked great. Conversions based on other tv's, not so well. In plain English, if you want to give Brohamer's pace methods a serious try, either buy the very best variants you can afford or make your own. The latter is best, because it will give you insights into the processes and variables involved.

In short, don't become discouraged about using a great pace method because of deficiencies in the data fed into it.

[jasperson]

I was hoping to do Aqueduct again today,but I think they will cancel. I will try again for saturday

[jasperson]

I didn't post Sat. because I had a minor knee surgery and didn't have time

[turninforhome10]

I use Brohamer Pace figures and have found that normalizing the data allows for better comparison of the 1fr, 2fr, and 3fr fractions by allowing me to see when a horse is more dominant throughout the race. I enclosed a copy of the way my report looks. I use the best races with this method and also break down a 4th call and % energy. It is amazing how many times longshots might be found by using the horse the has the 100% energy and is the best early speed.

[traynor]

I use Brohamer Pace figures and have found that normalizing the data allows for better comparison of the 1fr, 2fr, and 3fr fractions by allowing me to see when a horse is more dominant throughout the race. I enclosed a copy of the way my report looks. I use the best races with this method and also break down a 4th call and % energy. It is amazing how many times longshots might be found by using the horse the has the 100% energy and is the best early speed.

What criteria do you use to determine "best races"?

[turninforhome10]

There are three levels in my program. First is Median, Second is average and third is criteria based. Criteria is that they must have been in the top 50% at the first call and must finish in the top 50% of the field. My stuff is based on conditions of the race. So, if analyzing N2l, I throw out any horse's race where it broke it's maiden in wire to wire fashion and so on. So I use the median of the best 2 races that meet the above criteria. If I get no data in a field, then I know that the horse is not competitive in that fraction.

[traynor]

There are three levels in my program. First is Median, Second is average and third is criteria based. Criteria is that they must have been in the top 50% at the first call and must finish in the top 50% of the field. My stuff is based on conditions of the race. So, if analyzing N2l, I throw out any horse's race where it broke it's maiden in wire to wire fashion and so on. So I use the median of the best 2 races that meet the above criteria. If I get no data in a field, then I know that the horse is not competitive in that fraction.

Interesting. Averaging races was recommended in the early Sartin days, mostly abandoned later in favor of "picking the proper pace line," with averaging discouraged. I always thought averaging (in all but races in which few entries have more than a race or two) was more realistic.

Best two of all races listed, best two of last six, best two of last three? The choice of pace lines strongly influences the final ratings, and the best way to get consistent results is to use a consistent method for selecting pace lines used to compare past performances. Otherwise there is no real way to model what you are doing.

One of the weaknesses of Sartin's approach was the notion of "picking the proper pace line," with the implication that if a race was lost, it was a failure on the part of the user to "pick the proper pace line." One of the interesting side effects of studying Sartin methods is that "picking the proper pace line" developed pattern recognition skills that made the applications almost redundant. That is, the race winners (or most probable winners) were "known" before entering the information in the computer, and the output only verified the pre-existing "knowledge."

It doesn't take much insight to figure out how a FPS rate-of-speed is calculated, and which pace line(s) will favor a particular entry. Until you get to that point, a consistent pace line selection process generally works best.

[turninforhome10]

Interesting. Averaging races was recommended in the early Sartin days, mostly abandoned later in favor of "picking the proper pace line," with averaging discouraged. I always thought averaging (in all but races in which few entries have more than a race or two) was more realistic.

Best two of all races listed, best two of last six, best two of last three? The choice of pace lines strongly influences the final ratings, and the best way to get consistent results is to use a consistent method for selecting pace lines used to compare past performances. Otherwise there is no real way to model what you are doing.

One of the weaknesses of Sartin's approach was the notion of "picking the proper pace line," with the implication that if a race was lost, it was a failure on the part of the user to "pick the proper pace line." One of the interesting side effects of studying Sartin methods is that "picking the proper pace line" developed pattern recognition skills that made the applications almost redundant. That is, the race winners (or most probable winners) were "known" before entering the information in the computer, and the output only verified the pre-existing "knowledge."

It doesn't take much insight to figure out how a FPS rate-of-speed is calculated, and which pace line(s) will favor a particular entry. Until you get to that point, a consistent pace line selection process generally works best.
I pick my pace lines based on what I call a Jockey Confidence Interval. Without disclosing to much, it is a line in which I feel that the horse was actually pointed for today's race based on condition book and the jock aboard would feel like they actually have a shot to be competitive to finish in the top 3. If the horse is well meant and finishes poorly this line is sometimes more useful than their average or best.
Here is an example of what my sheets look like after handicapping for conditions. Last night from Delta. The winner won by the length of the stretch.
Here are results

Go to Race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
5th race - Delta Downs - Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Off at: 7:31 Race Type: Maiden Claiming Video Race Replay
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Sex Restriction: Fillies
Purse: $17,000
Distance: Seven Furlongs On The Dirt
Track Condition: Sloppy
Winning Time: 1:28.46
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 Miss Heir Kevin J. Smith 5.20 4.00 4.00
4 John Louis' Penny Romualdo Santos 14.80 8.00
6 Fourwayinheritence Donnie J. Meche 4.20
Also ran: 1 - Frescarita , 3 - Impish Dreamer , 8 - Isle Breville , 7 - Eye Belong to Me , 2 - Catch This Fish , 9 - Betty B Mining

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Pick 3 1/4/7-4/11/12-5 (3 correct) 80.00
$2 Exacta 5-4 96.40
$2 Superfecta 5-4-6-1 7,636.60
$2 Trifecta 5-4-6 450.80

[traynor]

I pick my pace lines based on what I call a Jockey Confidence Interval. Without disclosing to much, it is a line in which I feel that the horse was actually pointed for today's race based on condition book and the jock aboard would feel like they actually have a shot to be competitive to finish in the top 3. If the horse is well meant and finishes poorly this line is sometimes more useful than their average or best.
Here is an example of what my sheets look like after handicapping for conditions. Last night from Delta. The winner won by the length of the stretch.
Here are results

Go to Race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
5th race - Delta Downs - Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Off at: 7:31 Race Type: Maiden Claiming Video Race Replay
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Sex Restriction: Fillies
Purse: $17,000
Distance: Seven Furlongs On The Dirt
Track Condition: Sloppy
Winning Time: 1:28.46
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 Miss Heir Kevin J. Smith 5.20 4.00 4.00
4 John Louis' Penny Romualdo Santos 14.80 8.00
6 Fourwayinheritence Donnie J. Meche 4.20
Also ran: 1 - Frescarita , 3 - Impish Dreamer , 8 - Isle Breville , 7 - Eye Belong to Me , 2 - Catch This Fish , 9 - Betty B Mining

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Pick 3 1/4/7-4/11/12-5 (3 correct) 80.00
$2 Exacta 5-4 96.40
$2 Superfecta 5-4-6-1 7,636.60
$2 Trifecta 5-4-6 450.80

That is an interesting approach to both qualifying and comparing contenders. I hope you do well with it. Obviously, using pace figures to supplement your other insights about a race is more useful than just relying on the pace figures alone.

[Robert Fischer]

anyone have the pace numbers for IRON JOE T Golden Gate Race7 :5: ??

last race looked freaky fast going 8.5furlings at a sprint clip for the first 7 furlongs or so.

[turninforhome10]

anyone have the pace numbers for IRON JOE T Golden Gate Race7 :5: ??

last race looked freaky fast going 8.5furlings at a sprint clip for the first 7 furlongs or so.
Attached below

[Robert Fischer]

Attached below

not sure how to read that printout.

i see he has 100B3P and 83.4PctE ?



i know the :6: sir al is in good form.

I'll be interested to see if :5: Iron Joe T benefits from his last race. 2 back he was wide and had a decent finish from off the pace.

[turninforhome10]

not sure how to read that printout.

i see he has 100B3P and 83.4PctE ?
He is a S type and would say +3 and has ability to tend a pace. Without looking this is my estimate.


i know the :6: sir al is in good form.

I'll be interested to see if :5: Iron Joe T benefits from his last race. 2 back he was wide and had a decent finish from off the pace.
B1 is first call, B2 is second call, B3 is third call, B4 is final call %Pct is energy percent. All data is normalized against todays field

[turninforhome10]

The figures gave out had the exacta, the tri, and the super and put the :1: and :6: on the bottom. Not bad should have played it.
$1.00 Exacta 2/3 $42.00
$1.00 Trifecta 2/3/5 $177.80
$0.10 Superfecta 2/3/5/4 $62.54

[Robert Fischer]

The figures gave out had the exacta, the tri, and the super and put the :1: and :6: on the bottom. Not bad should have played it.
$1.00 Exacta 2/3 $42.00
$1.00 Trifecta 2/3/5 $177.80
$0.10 Superfecta 2/3/5/4 $62.54

Very nice.
You nailed that race.


:5: Iron Joe T - 5 wide 1st turn widest and 4 wide backstretch, 6 wide entering. Beaten by the place horse by a nose, and he buried the favorite :4: who wasn't nearly as wide. Probably a couple lengths best, but credit is due the :2: for having early speed.


also note: - the :6: had an equipment issue, but was probably an underlay either way.

[Capper Al]

TUP surprised with 40% chance of rain this morning. I don't bet wet/off tracks, but promised Jack that I'd post xPace figures for TUP this morning. These are NOT selectons just Pace rankings.

Top xPace for TUP

r1: 1-3-5-7
r2: 8-6-4-2
r3: 7-3-1A-6

r4: 8-1-3-2
r5: 7-4-8-3
r6: 5-2-6-1

r7: 6-4-2-8
r8: 4-8-3-1
r9: 11-8-9-10

[jasperson]

Comparing Brohamer Pace vs Bris vs my oddsline
Pace
EP $2.80,$3.20,$6.10=$12.10
SP $2.80,$11.20=$14.00
AP none

Bris Prime Power
$2.80,$3.80,$7.20=$13.80

Bris Early Pace
$2.80,$3.80,$6.20,$11.20=$24.oo

My Oddsline
Top Pick
$2.80,$6.10=#8.90

Early pace
$11.00,$3.80,$6.10,$5.10=$26.00

I looks like early pace is the way to go at Aqueduct.
I realize this is only one test so I will continue on with it for the next several weeks

Thursday at Aqu

Brohamer
EP $9.40 $&.00 =$17.40
SP 0
AP 0

BRIS
PP $6.50
BRIS
EP $4.30

MY ODDSLINE
TOP PICK 0
EP $6.00 $8.60 =$14.60

[turninforhome10]

Thursday at Aqu

Brohamer
EP $9.40 $&.00 =$17.40
SP 0
AP 0

BRIS
PP $6.50
BRIS
EP $4.30

MY ODDSLINE
TOP PICK 0
EP $6.00 $8.60 =$14.60
Jasperson, are you using % energy as a supplement to you calcs. Works very well at AQ.

[jasperson]

TUP surprised with 40% chance of rain this morning. I don't bet wet/off tracks, but promised Jack that I'd post xPace figures for TUP this morning. These are NOT selectons just Pace rankings.

Top xPace for TUP

r1: 1-3-5-7 $15.20
r2: 8-6-4-2
r3: 7-3-1A-6

r4: 8-1-3-2 8 scr
r5: 7-4-8-3
r6: 5-2-6-1

r7: 6-4-2-8
r8: 4-8-3-1 $8.40
r9: 11-8-9-10

brohamer Average pace
r1 1-7-3-2 $15.20
r2 1-2-6-4
43 3-1-8-5 $17.40
r4 3-5-7-4 3 &5 scr
r5 7-5-4-6 $2.60
r6 5-4-3-6
r7 5-8-9-10 8 scr
r8 1-8-4-9
r9 8-4-1-7

That is the best average pace has ever done for me. Maybe it is a west coast phenomenon because it sure doesn't have many winners at the east coast tracks





























































4

[Capper Al]

TUP surprised with 40% chance of rain this morning. I don't bet wet/off tracks, but promised Jack that I'd post xPace figures for TUP this morning. These are NOT selectons just Pace rankings.

Top xPace for TUP

r1: 1-3-5-7 $15.20
r2: 8-6-4-2
r3: 7-3-1A-6 scr 1A

r4: 8-1-3-2 scr 3-8
r5: 7-4-8-3
r6: 5-2-6-1

r7: 6-4-2-8
r8: 4-8-3-1 $8.40
r9: 11-8-9-10

5 out of 9 races were one of the top three. $18.00 investment of $2.00 win tickets returned $23.60 with a $5.60 profit and ROI of 1.31.

[Capper Al]

brohamer Average pace
r1 1-7-3-2 $15.20
r2 1-2-6-4
43 3-1-8-5 $17.40
r4 3-5-7-4 3 &5 scr
r5 7-5-4-6 $2.60
r6 5-4-3-6
r7 5-8-9-10 8 scr
r8 1-8-4-9
r9 8-4-1-7

That is the best average pace has ever done for me. Maybe it is a west coast phenomenon because it sure doesn't have many winners at the east coast tracks


Nice hits. Profit of $17.20.

[jasperson]

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson
brohamer Average pace
r1 1-7-3-2 $15.20
r2 1-2-6-4
43 3-1-8-5 $17.40
r4 3-5-7-4 3 &5 scr
r5 7-5-4-6 $2.60
r6 5-4-3-6
r7 5-8-9-10 8 scr
r8 1-8-4-9
r9 8-4-1-7

That is the best average pace has ever done for me. Maybe it is a west coast phenomenon because it sure doesn't have many winners at the east coast tracks




Nice hits. Profit of $17.20.
Nice hits. Profit of $17.20.


r2 1-2-6 box Exacta $55.20 Tri $161.80

[jasperson]

Jasperson, are you using % energy as a supplement to you calcs. Works very well at AQ.

I might try it,but how do you use it? At AQ I need to try something.

[turninforhome10]

I might try it,but how do you use it? At AQ I need to try something.
I use it by normalizing it to see if a determination can be made if the best early speed will also have the best position at the top of the stretch.
Here is the link to maybe better explain.
http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/favoriteArticles/Final%20Brohamer%20Series%20Part%203%20Percent%20E arly.pdf
I enclosed a race from AQ that showed where this % can be big in finding longshots.
I had 10 to win and place on the :4: due to the big disparity between that horse and the rest of the field. Needless to say I was pleased.

Here is a link to the results
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU020313USA5.pdf.
I have found that the data must be normalized to make for true comparisons between entrants.
Hope this helps.

[Capper Al]

What I like about Giles is win or lose the pace duel is more than not obseverable. The typical 2nd call + final time speed approach might yeild a better win result, but too many times the pace duel doesn't pan put as predicted. This makes me believe that the typical pace figure isn't a pace figure like Giles, but an improved speed figure accounting for the energy spent in the first two calls.

[traynor]

I use it by normalizing it to see if a determination can be made if the best early speed will also have the best position at the top of the stretch.
Here is the link to maybe better explain.
http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/favoriteArticles/Final%20Brohamer%20Series%20Part%203%20Percent%20E arly.pdf
I enclosed a race from AQ that showed where this % can be big in finding longshots.
I had 10 to win and place on the :4: due to the big disparity between that horse and the rest of the field. Needless to say I was pleased.

Here is a link to the results
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU020313USA5.pdf.
I have found that the data must be normalized to make for true comparisons between entrants.
Hope this helps.

Something to consider: In selecting contenders, the past race used as a pace line has a major influence on that entry's %Early. If a race is used as a pace line in which the entry stalled in the stretch, it will seem to have distributed its energy earlier, and vice versa. When creating %Early ratings for a race, it is necessary to to base them on races in which the entry performed as closely as possible to a "winning race." That is, a race in which the entry was fairly competitive throughout the race, especially at the finish.

Many of the problems handicappers have with %Early (including those who declare it to be utter nonsense) are related to pace line selection, rather than to the calculation itself.

[turninforhome10]

Something to consider: In selecting contenders, the past race used as a pace line has a major influence on that entry's %Early. If a race is used as a pace line in which the entry stalled in the stretch, it will seem to have distributed its energy earlier, and vice versa. When creating %Early ratings for a race, it is necessary to to base them on races in which the entry performed as closely as possible to a "winning race." That is, a race in which the entry was fairly competitive throughout the race, especially at the finish.

Many of the problems handicappers have with %Early (including those who declare it to be utter nonsense) are related to pace line selection, rather than to the calculation itself.
That's the nice thing about my software. I can build logic steps into the pace selection lines using my "jockey confidence interval" and it does the rest. I have it set up for best, avg, median and normalized. I find overlays can be found when a high early horse will be ridden by jock who might be a little hungrier that their high % peers. Such as Jackie Davis. They might be more inclined to ride the horse out.

[traynor]

That's the nice thing about my software. I can build logic steps into the pace selection lines using my "jockey confidence interval" and it does the rest. I have it set up for best, avg, median and normalized. I find overlays can be found when a high early horse will be ridden by jock who might be a little hungrier that their high % peers. Such as Jackie Davis. They might be more inclined to ride the horse out.

It sounds like you have the situation well in control. For those less familiar with the ins and outs of pace analysis (as well as the ins and outs of correlating pace with other important aspects of the particular race) the "automated pace line selection process" in most apps is dismal, at best. That they "outperform" the computer users selecting pace lines "by hand" should come as no surprise to anyone--whatever pace line selection skills (that might have been) developed by non-computer race analysis are quickly extinguished by reliance on "automatic pace line selection."

That is not just a subjective, personal opinion--it is one of the toughest parts of race analysis to teach (and the easiest to extinguish), and one on which I have spent many. many hours of coding time in building training applications.

[Maximillion]

It sounds like you have the situation well in control. For those less familiar with the ins and outs of pace analysis (as well as the ins and outs of correlating pace with other important aspects of the particular race) the "automated pace line selection process" in most apps is dismal, at best. That they "outperform" the computer users selecting pace lines "by hand" should come as no surprise to anyone--whatever pace line selection skills (that might have been) developed by non-computer race analysis are quickly extinguished by reliance on "automatic pace line selection."

That is not just a subjective, personal opinion--it is one of the toughest parts of race analysis to teach (and the easiest to extinguish), and one on which I have spent many. many hours of coding time in building training applications.


I value your opinion on a lot of things but Im trying to break this post down...

***pace line selection in most apps is dismal,at best.

***they(who..The apps?) "outperform" the "by hand" paceline selections of computer users...this despite the former being "dismal, at best?"

And honestly,I dont comprehend any of the "non computer" or "extinguish" points being made in the later half of the post.(maybe its just me)
What did I miss?

[Tom]

Name three prgrams with "dismal pace line selection" and three users who do even worse.

[traynor]

Name three prgrams with "dismal pace line selection" and three users who do even worse.

To do what you are requesting would require an extended third-party research project following strict protocols and research methods to assure the results were objective, and objectively verifiable. If you are volunteering to foot the bill for such research, and you are really interested, you might request bids for the work on CodeGuru or O-Desk. I don't have the time.

The opinions I stated are based on private evaluations that are not available for public disclosure.

[Tom]

You make outlandish claims and then refuse to provide any specific examples.
Interesting.

To do what you are requesting would require an extended third-party research project following strict protocols and research methods to assure the results were objective, and objectively verifiable.

All I am asking is to for you to back up your statements.
Guess that is too much.

[traynor]

You make outlandish claims and then refuse to provide any specific examples.
Interesting.



All I am asking is to for you to back up your statements.
Guess that is too much.

If you are really interested, hire the research done and then you will have the answers from an independent, unbiased, objective research project that provides the answers you seek. We have. There is no interest, nor is there any motivation, in providing that private, proprietary information to anyone else. If you want answers, do the research yourself, or pay for competent researchers to do it for you. That should be a basic fact of life for anyone wagering seriously, just as it should be for any other type of investment or business endeavor.

[cj]

If you are really interested, hire the research done and then you will have the answers from an independent, unbiased, objective research project that provides the answers you seek. We have. There is no interest, nor is there any motivation, in providing that private, proprietary information to anyone else. If you want answers, do the research yourself, or pay for competent researchers to do it for you. That should be a basic fact of life for anyone wagering seriously, just as it should be for any other type of investment or business endeavor.

Which begs the questions why give away the conclusions?

[sjk]

If you are really interested, hire the research done and then you will have the answers from an independent, unbiased, objective research project that provides the answers you seek. We have. There is no interest, nor is there any motivation, in providing that private, proprietary information to anyone else. If you want answers, do the research yourself, or pay for competent researchers to do it for you. That should be a basic fact of life for anyone wagering seriously, just as it should be for any other type of investment or business endeavor.


What is being questioned is the assertion that you can ignore the natural speed of horses who flash sharp fractions and finish in the dust.

I am sure I could I could do research to show that you ignore these horses at your peril.

Tom and others may have already done so.

[traynor]

What is being questioned is the assertion that you can ignore the natural speed of horses who flash sharp fractions and finish in the dust.

I am sure I could I could do research to show that you ignore these horses at your peril.

Tom and others may have already done so.

Just my opinion, but I think doing one's own research--whether personally performed or hired out to competent researchers--is the best source of usable information. It is often the case that casual research returns "confirmation" of the pre-existing beliefs of the researcher, because of the way the research is set up. Using fairly strict research protocols and methodologies diminishes that "researcher bias."

[turninforhome10]

Can we get back to discussing Brohamer. Jasperson was using this thread to discuss the topic at hand. Create a thread for research topics.
Does normalization of data show better disparity between runners? It seems to me IMHO I am finding nuggets when I can visually see when a high% horse will seemingly get an easy lead. Any thoughts?

[Tom]

I think you are better off looking at second call pace.
Compare the horse's on that and forget energy.
What is you horse is just slow late - that will give it a high EE%, but maybe not a very high early pace number.

To make a simple example - TPR numbers

EP FR

80 - 75 - 51.6%
78 - 82 - 48.8%
75 - 65 - 53.6%

You slowest paced horse is the highest EE%

[raybo]

I think you are better off looking at second call pace.
Compare the horse's on that and forget energy.
What is you horse is just slow late - that will give it a high EE%, but maybe not a very high early pace number.

To make a simple example - TPR numbers

EP FR

80 - 75 - 51.6%
78 - 82 - 48.8%
75 - 65 - 53.6%

You slowest paced horse is the highest EE%

Agree, %E came with the statement that they are only important in 6f or shorter races, where start to 2nd call energy expenditure is actually an advantage, rather than more of a disadvantage, as in longer races, because longer races require some rating early in order to get the total distance. Many horses can expend a majority of their energy early, in a shorter race, and still have enough left to finish well enough to not lose all of the lead they have accumulated. In longer races, that kind of early energy expenditure will, more than not, cost them their lead in deep stretch, if not earlier.

As Tom states, you have to look at it all, not just %E.

In my opinion, a normalized total pace/velocity figure, in conjunction with running styles and pace pressure, is about as good as it gets, if you can normalize the total pace/velocity figure adequately.

[Capper Al]

It sounds like you have the situation well in control. For those less familiar with the ins and outs of pace analysis (as well as the ins and outs of correlating pace with other important aspects of the particular race) the "automated pace line selection process" in most apps is dismal, at best. That they "outperform" the computer users selecting pace lines "by hand" should come as no surprise to anyone--whatever pace line selection skills (that might have been) developed by non-computer race analysis are quickly extinguished by reliance on "automatic pace line selection."

That is not just a subjective, personal opinion--it is one of the toughest parts of race analysis to teach (and the easiest to extinguish), and one on which I have spent many. many hours of coding time in building training applications.

My app's key pace line method (kPace) out performs my xPace (Giles) and seems to do better than MPH pace lines. I'll post both these this Saturday for GP provided Jack post MPH pace lines again.

[barn32]

I use it by normalizing it to see if a determination can be made if the best early speed will also have the best position at the top of the stretch.
Here is the link to maybe better explain.
http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/favoriteArticles/Final%20Brohamer%20Series%20Part%203%20Percent%20E arly.pdf
I didn't see a date. Do you know what year this article was written?

I have another question: Here is your printout of the race. I can't figure out how you are ranking the horses--and what does OOF mean?
Attached Files http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/attach/txt.gif AQ Race 5 020313.txt (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10373) (1.8 KB, 14 views)

[turninforhome10]

I didn't see a date. Do you know what year this article was written?

I have another question: Here is your printout of the race. I can't figure out how you are ranking the horses--and what does OOF mean?
The article was written in October 2000. Here is a link to the Allways library
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=allnews.
From my software, Columns are weighed by backtesting, the data for the column is normalized FPS velocities. The ranking score is the way the method tallies up the columns lowest is best and OOF order of finish. Hope this helps. If you are interested in the software PM me for info.
Hope this helps.