NCAA and NBA Basketball. Against the Public Style.

[hugh]

NCAA and NBA Basketball. Against the Public Style.
It's always fun betting against these big public favorites. You don't win all of them but Most of the time you're in it until the end of the game. Be on the "smart" side all of the time.
Big bucks are to be made betting the dogs (usually) on college games under the national scope (like prime time ESPN). Big upsets happen all the time so I suggest having a little cash on the money lines too.
Sports are like the stock market. There is value being on one side of the line.
Like any marketplace, a buyer and seller agree on a price - in this case a "point spread". But knowing the "point spread" is only half the picture. Understanding the forces affecting the "point spread' movement (the volume of bets, percentage of bets on the home team and the percentage of bets on the away team) is essential in determining the true value of any "point spread"
This thread is where I will post my "legendary" ATP plays... both pros and college.
Most will be underdogs, but these are situations where the public money is spread 50-50. This is the place to take a favorite.
Let's make some money!!!! (and have some fun)
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
That's what it's all about.

[hugh]

NBA Plays for 1-18-13 ...... 0-0 on the season.
--------------------------------------------------------
Spurs -11.5 .... Curry is out so pound the heck out of this line. They are a bottom feeding team without him leading the way.
Dallas +4.5 .... does taking this line make you nervous? Me too. That's why it's one heck of a play. Join the 15% and take the Mavs here.
That's all for the day. Good luck.

[hugh]

NCAA 0-0 on the year
-----------------
Miami +3 .... Why not start the year betting AGAINST DUKE? 85% of all bets are on the Blue Devils. So I'm going the other way. Big Play for me today.

That's it!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Adding one more NCAA play for 1-23-13
La Salle -3 .... Solid fave with only 22% of all public money

[Striker]

NCAA 0-0 on the year
-----------------
Miami +3 .... Why not start the year betting AGAINST DUKE? 85% of all bets are on the Blue Devils. So I'm going the other way. Big Play for me today.

That's it!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Solid call Hugh. :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

NCAA 0-0 on the year
-----------------
Miami +3 .... Why not start the year betting AGAINST DUKE? 85% of all bets are on the Blue Devils. So I'm going the other way. Big Play for me today.

That's it!!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Nice call. I have a friend who swears by playing against any team who rushes the court following a big win. Miami fans rushed the court after the win over Duke; makes them a go-against vs Fla State this weekend.

[hugh]

Temple +6.5 ... just a small play on the Owls today. They should play right with Butler... I have these teams even so I'll take the 6.5 points. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Fu## Butler. They did me in again with the bet on Temple. I don't like losing two in a row especially to the same team. Anyways... I have two plays today...

NBA 1-1 on the year
------------------------
Toronto +1.5

NCAA 1-2 on the year
---------------------
West VA +8.5

Gonna turn this streak around today. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Squeaked out a win with WV yesterday but totally dropped the ball with the Raptors. I should have known better seeing Bogut back in the lineup. I learned my lesson. The warriors have a great team... with Bogut, Lee, and Steph Curry all healthy they are a formidable force.
One play for today in college hoops. 2-2 on the year.
Ole Miss -2.5 ....... Miss is the better team. A proven team on a huge roll. Alot of the late money is coming in on Kentucky because they're Kentucky. This is not a team playing well however and the public has been over betting them all year.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

NCAA 2-3 on the year
-------------------------
Providence +1.5
Saint Louis -2.5

NBA 1-2 on the year
-------------------------
Dallas +3

Going against Butler again. Come on!!!!
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Got a bunch of NBA plays today.... 2-1-13
--------------------------------------------
Pacers +2
Bucks +5
Minny +2.5
Celtics -9
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

NBA 3-4-1 on the year
-------------------------------
Atlanta +6



NCAABB 3-4 on the year
------------------------------
Wake Forest +13.5
So. Illinois +10.5
Texas Tech +11.5


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

NBA 3-5-1 on the year :confused:
------------------
Lakers +2

NCAABB 5-5 on the year
---------------------------
Illinois +7
Santa Clara +1.5

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

Hugh-

I thought about an interesting twist to your angle. We know the public is susceptible at times, but not always. They have gotten better over the past 10-15 years as more information has become available. I'm looking at an angle which combines public sentiment with betting action.

The angle is this: any team or total in which is drawing at least 70% of tickets written, BUT the line moves the other way by at least 1 full point from the opening line. For instance, the Duke/BC total opened at 143 1/2 with the OVER being written on 78% of the tickets but the total has moved downward to 142. While the bulk of small tickets are on the over, clearly there's some very heavy money coming in on the under.

[hugh]

That is something called a "smart money move" and there are betting applications out there like one created by SportsInsights that actually alert you when such an angle pops up. Over time it IS profitable.
The data used to be out there for free but now it costs around 50$ a month. Of course you can do it yourself using these tools...
This will help...
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/betting-trends/spurs-@-nets.cfm/date/2-10-13/time/2005/linechanges/y
As well as this....
http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketball-public-betting-chart
If you notice thespread's info... just line up a heavily betted (usually) fave with a line move going in the other direction for your plays. I don't know how long this data will be free because you basically can do it all yourself with a little work.

Getting my butt waxed by the NBA...
got one for tonight though...
NETS +2.5

[hugh]

Valuist... one game you will want to check out tonight is the NBA game between the Raptors and Nuggets. Smart money move. One of the biggest I've seen actually. So the play is...
Raptors -1.5 (with only 30% of all the money)... check it out.

Also going with Florida -10 and the Under 132.5 with Mich/Sparty
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

Valuist... one game you will want to check out tonight is the NBA game between the Raptors and Nuggets. Smart money move. One of the biggest I've seen actually. So the play is...
Raptors -1.5 (with only 30% of all the money)... check it out.

Also going with Florida -10 and the Under 132.5 with Mich/Sparty
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I noticed that. That was a huge move. Denver opened -3.5 and closed +1.5. Any idea for the big move?

[cj]

I noticed that. That was a huge move. Denver opened -3.5 and closed +1.5. Any idea for the big move?

Tough way to lose if you took Toronto -1.5.

[Valuist]

Tough way to lose if you took Toronto -1.5.

I'm gonna take heat for this and maybe for redboarding, but I did not take Toronto -1.5.

The line came out Denver -3.5 but was quickly bet to Denver -2. It was that number late Monday night. I checked the numbers before I went to work yesterday (still Den -2) and at lunch and it was still there. I don't know what happened yesterday afternoon to create the additional 3.5 line move, but a 5 point move on a side (from the opener) in the NBA is giant. To get in at that point is way too late. IMO, anything over a 3 point move on a side is too much.

We're all horse bettors here. We've all had this happen: the night before we love a horse that the morning line has at 10-1 or so. We check the local handicappers in the paper to see if they've seen what we like; they don't like the horse either. So we head to the track, anxious to fire on the horse. We look up at the tote with 10 minutes to post and see that 10-1 shot is actually 7-2. Everything changes. Ultimately we bet prices, not horses or teams.

I didn't bet Toronto at any price (or Denver either). I got busy at work, and I will not bet in any form at work. Ironically, in the closing numbers, Denver was no longer getting 70% of the tickets. This brings to mind another point: at what point should one bet? To use this angle properly, we don't want to make judgements too early; a team may be getting bet on 80% of tickets, but so what if the number of bets is small? I would think by noontime of game day (assuming it is a night game), there's enough bets to make a good judgement. And of course, Saturdays and Sundays are different.

[Valuist]

I would have to think the bookmakers got MURDERED on the Denv/Toronto game. There obviously was the heavy money on Toronto the entire time and one would have to believe the heavy money which caught Toronto +3.5 may have tried to middle the game.

[Valuist]

OK I see the reason for the big move; no Iguadala and Gallinari for Denver. Books were either asleep at the wheel or Denver will get in trouble for not reporting injuries to the league. I can't remember the last time I saw a 5 point line move where the game never was taken off the board.

[hugh]

Great job finding the reason for that WEIRD line move. You're right about questioning why the line was even up. I think I'm going to take a break from the NBA. The season has been a disaster for me thus far and I enjoy College ball more.
8-6 on the year for NCAA...
Florida State +5.5 ... this one hurts even thinking about going against the Canes. But that makes it a big play for me. :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

Great job finding the reason for that WEIRD line move. You're right about questioning why the line was even up. I think I'm going to take a break from the NBA. The season has been a disaster for me thus far and I enjoy College ball more.
8-6 on the year for NCAA...
Florida State +5.5 ... this one hurts even thinking about going against the Canes. But that makes it a big play for me. :ThmbUp:

I'm on FSU at 5.5 and Southern Illinois at -1.

Here's another one: Team A opens at -5 over Team B. Team A is on 75% of the tickets and 8 hours before gametime, the line has shifted to Team A at -3 1/2. Its clear sharp money is on Team B. But in the final 4 hours before the game, Team A is now only on 65% of tickets but line moved to Team A minus 4 1/2. By gametime it no longer qualifies as a play, but is it? Team B clearly was alive and sharp money pushed it to +3.5 and now one gets a chance to take it at +4.5.

[nomadpat]

OK I see the reason for the big move; no Iguadala and Gallinari for Denver. Books were either asleep at the wheel or Denver will get in trouble for not reporting injuries to the league. I can't remember the last time I saw a 5 point line move where the game never was taken off the board.

Actually, the Nuggets tweeted those players being out about an hour and a half to two hours before tipoff. Iggy was questionable after the game before, Gallinari being out was the surprise one. According to thespread timeline graph, about 15 minutes passed from the tweet to the big line jump....so enough time to bet if you acted quickly.

[Valuist]

Actually, the Nuggets tweeted those players being out about an hour and a half to two hours before tipoff. Iggy was questionable after the game before, Gallinari being out was the surprise one. According to thespread timeline graph, about 15 minutes passed from the tweet to the big line jump....so enough time to bet if you acted quickly.

Yeah but when one is at work, tracking that kind of stuff every minute is not an option.

And don't think they won't hear from the league about this. They are supposed to report that stuff a lot sooner. Like the night before. I guess they are taking a page out of the Shanahan Broncos for that.

[cj]

Yeah but when one is at work, tracking that kind of stuff every minute is not an option.

And don't think they won't hear from the league about this. They are supposed to report that stuff a lot sooner. Like the night before. I guess they are taking a page out of the Shanahan Broncos for that.

You are probably off base on this one. NBA injuries are not the open book that NFL ones are supposed to be. They never have been.

[Valuist]

You are probably off base on this one. NBA injuries are not the open book that NFL ones are supposed to be. They never have been.

I don't think so. You see plenty of games off the board in the NBA until 6 hours or so before game time. The proof was in the pudding; if guys like Jordan and Shaq (at his peak) were worth 7.5 and 7 points to the spread, a 5 point move on a game is huge, and that's what happened in the Nuggets-Raptors game.

[cj]

I don't think so. You see plenty of games off the board in the NBA until 6 hours or so before game time. The proof was in the pudding; if guys like Jordan and Shaq (at his peak) were worth 7.5 and 7 points to the spread, a 5 point move on a game is huge, and that's what happened in the Nuggets-Raptors game.

I wasn't talking about the points changing, I was talking about how injuries are reported and how the NBA responds. Last minute scratches are pretty common and never punished by the NBA. The Popovic incident was a totally different animal than what happened with Denver. The NBA is not driven by gambling like the NFL is.

[Valuist]

I wasn't talking about the points changing, I was talking about how injuries are reported and how the NBA responds. Last minute scratches are pretty common and never punished by the NBA. The Popovic incident was a totally different animal than what happened with Denver. The NBA is not driven by gambling like the NFL is.

True it isn't driven by gambling like the NFL, and the Popovich thing was more about the fans in Miami (or wherever the Spurs were playing that night) than any gambling related interests. But the sheer number of games that are off the board is a good indicator that the majority of teams are disclosing their injuries. A 5 point move on a game that was never off the board is very rare.

[cj]

True it isn't driven by gambling like the NFL, and the Popovich thing was more about the fans in Miami (or wherever the Spurs were playing that night) than any gambling related interests. But the sheer number of games that are off the board is a good indicator that the majority of teams are disclosing their injuries. A 5 point move on a game that was never off the board is very rare.

My only point was there would be no punishment from the NBA like you suggested. I don't gamble on sports so the rest is not something I get into much. I'm out of my league.

[Valuist]

Miami/OKC UNDER 204.5 is a qualifier today.

[hugh]

Kinda like a couple of lightly bet faves tonight...
Minny -5.5
Louisville -17.5
It's does fall into that big game against the public category as both games heavily broadcasted on espn. Feeling pretty good about these.

[hugh]

A nice little game tonight between The Hoyas and Bearcats...
It's rare to have a solid matchup on a friday but here it is..
Gotta take Cinci -4 (only getting 30% of all money...
Good luck!! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Maybe I should just stick with the dogs...
Got a super strange game today...
Duke/Maryland with the terps getting just 4.5
Valuist would be all over this Smart Money Move...
Maryland only getting 30% of all the money but the line moved from +5.5 to 4.5 ....
Guess the play is Maryland plus the points but it hurts me to even think of taking them... must be a pretty Big Play then..
Ah what the hell..... Maryland +4.5 as an Official Pick...
ONE MORE....
Smart money move... on the stanford/UCLA game...
Cardinal only getting 31% of public money yet the line goes from-4.5 to -5
Taking Stanford -5 here.
:ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Got one for today. One team that pains me to even think about taking but that's the way this against the public thing works...
9-10 on the year....
Today I'm taking Pitt -10 against the Irish. You're not going to have too much company taking Pittsburg in this situation. Almost 80% of Vegas bettors are going the other way. Pitt minus the points is a big play for me.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[cj's dad]

I have watched Maryland all year and I would not not have taken +14.5 much less 4.5. The team simply can not score. Alex Len is a bust, but he will probably be a 1-2 round pick ; he's 7'2"- go figure.

[cj]

I have watched Maryland all year and I would not not have taken +14.5 much less 4.5. The team simply can not score. Alex Len is a bust, but he will probably be a 1-2 round pick ; he's 7'2"- go figure.

Alex Len is sure top 10 pick in the draft assuming he enters. Plumlee is also projected fairly high, top 15, and he dominated him.

[Valuist]

I watched a good portion of the Duke-Maryland game and Duke has been overrated all season, IMO.

[hugh]

Got some pretty good against the public plays for tomorrow NCAABB
--------------------------------------------------------------- :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
South Carolina +7.5 .......... 21%
Clemson +6 .......... 12% (WTF?)
TCU +23.5 ........... 27%
Syracuse -6.5 ............29%
Colorado State -6 ......... 26%
Texas +3 .... 8% ......... BIG PLAY
(you might get .5-1 point more on some of these)

That's it... Big Saturday for me. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
9-11 on the year

[hugh]

Minny +5.5 ..... got a good one for today's Super Tuesday. This is that "this is a lock" game that doesn't happen very often. There is no reason to take the gophers other than the fact that they are at home. Vegas books are going to make a fortune when the Hosiers LOSE THIS GAME. Only 23% of bettors taking the points. I am one of them.

[sammy the sage]

Tenn. +8.5 or 9 if your lucky vs the Gators...

Athletic enough to give crippled Fla. all they want....and Fla. couldn't win in Knoxvegas even with their Nat'l title team...just a tough spot...

[sammy the sage]

Minny +5.5 ..... got a good one for today's Super Tuesday. This is that "this is a lock" game that doesn't happen very often. There is no reason to take the gophers other than the fact that they are at home. Vegas books are going to make a fortune when the Hosiers LOSE THIS GAME. Only 23% of bettors taking the points. I am one of them.

good call :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Sweet call on the Vols my friend... we both had good days :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
And I LOVE your Noam quote. My dad turned me onto chomsky when I was a young pup. Cheers man!

[hugh]

Got one for tonight...
Texas +2.5 ... they play like a different team at home. STR8 up winner here. Only getting 32% on Vegas $$$. They have mine.

[hugh]

BYU +6 ... this team should match up well with the Zags. They are $$$ at home. BYU is the least sexy team out there and I love taking them.. I usually get an extra point or two. Only 27% are with me today.
Virginia .. PICK ... love betting against the Blue Devils and in this situation the Cavs are a screaming pick. At home they can beat Duke. 80% of the public are taking Duke.

A maybe game: Northwestern +10.5 ... 75% taking ohio st. I like going with NW here.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Bettowin]

BYU +6 ... this team should match up well with the Zags. They are $$$ at home. BYU is the least sexy team out there and I love taking them.. I usually get an extra point or two. Only 27% are with me today.
Virginia .. PICK ... love betting against the Blue Devils and in this situation the Cavs are a screaming pick. At home they can beat Duke. 80% of the public are taking Duke.

A maybe game: Northwestern +10.5 ... 75% taking ohio st. I like going with NW here.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:



Very nice. Love following your picks. Killed Virginia straight up and took the under with BYU but they did cover. Look forward to your next ones

[hugh]

Don't have time for comprehensive writeups ....
West Virginia +15.5 ... Two teams seemingly going opposite directions but I think the 15.5 is enough for WV to get her done.
Texas +12.5 ... BIG PLAY (with Kabongo back the horns can win this one outright) 15%
Arizona PICK .... BIGGER PLAY ... only 30% on the wildcats but they are the better team. Pound this one.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

All streaks come to an end eventually. Got a few goldies for tonight...

Virginia Tech +19.5 .... Really think Duke wins by around 12-14. So five extra points should be enough. Only 22% on Tech.
Saint John's plus 10 ... You never know what team ND will put on the floor. The dogs always play harder on the big stage. Going to take a small bet on the money line on this one. 70% on the Irish so I'm going the other way.

Small play on Indiana -7.5 (just an action bet... when money is split 50/50 like it is I like going with the fave)

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp:

[hugh]

Purdue +6 ... 26%
Nova PICK ... 21%
Georgia Tech +12.5 ...... 14% !!!
South Florida +3 .... 25%
Auburn +5 .... 19%
Washington State +2.5 .......17%
Stanford +5.5 ...... 22%

Going to stick with the system even though I'm going through a rough patch. Things even out in the long run.

[hugh]

Okay Well Back to normal with a 6-1 day. Against the public betting is streaky as hell. It's good to throw a parlay into the mix sometimes.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::)
Georgia +2.5 .... 35%
Penn state +5 .... 15%
Wisconsin +4.5 ...... 19%
That's all of em.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

A 2-1 day. Not bad but not great. Let's do better today...:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp:
--------------------------------------
Baylor +4.5 ......... 19%
NC -2 ... 37%
LMU +20.5 ...... 19%
Belmont -7.5 ...... 29%
Oregon State +9.5 .... 12% !!!!!!
Arizona -10.5 ...... 29
--------------------------------------

That's it. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

This one hurts even thinking about taking. That's why it's a good play.
Saint Mary's +6 .... only 27% of the betting public... including me.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Bettowin]

This one hurts even thinking about taking. That's why it's a good play.
Saint Mary's +6 .... only 27% of the betting public... including me.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

This one does seem way against the grain. I have to follow the crowd and take Gonzaga.

[hugh]

Is there any better time of year for bettors? Nope.. March baby!!!
--------------------------------------
North Dakota State -1 ... 28%
-----------------------------------------
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

0 for the last 2 but going to stick with my guns..
-----------------------------------------------
St Johns +4.5 ............ 30% ... I LOVE this one.
Wyoming +8.5 ......... 24% !!!!!
Oregon State +5.5 ........ 23%
----------------------------------------------
These are my favorite plays for today. Bring on the madness!!
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

NCAABB has been wicked to me the last few days. Gotta stick with it though.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
ND +3 .... 22%
Wake Forest +5.5 .. 26%
Clemson +2.5 ... 25%
Nebraska +6 ......... 28%
Let's Go!
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Maryland plus 11.5.... 26 percent
cuse plus 1.5..... 31 per
fl st plus 7.5..... 30 per

[hugh]

Akron +1.5 ........24%
North Western State +4.5 ...... 23%

An awesome day for college BB. I could chase a bunch of games. If you want action bets these are the others I'm leaning towards.. but not official plays:
Ole Miss -3
Ohio state -2
Oregon -1.5

Good luck and let the madness begin!!!
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

5 for 5 nice
vcu plus 1.5
nc plus 2.5
each of these games getting around 80 percent of public money bet on the favorites
going the other way is a no brainer... Go heels!

[hugh]

So this is the madness we all look forward to... It is HERE. The public tends to bet the dogs a little more in the tournament. Given this the against the pubkic system needs to be modified a tad. Basically any games where the public is on a team more than 2-1 or 66% qualifies.
Also qualifying are some games when the public is all over a dog.. this usually means around 50-60% of the betting public is taking the points.
These teams are playing for their lives. For a a lot of players this is the last hurrah. Games will be tighter and the points will mean more.
Let's take a look at the card...
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp:
Liberty +2 ... only 34% of bettors taking the points. So, take the points.
Valparaiso +10 .... 30%
Akron +7 .... 23%
Southern +21.5 .....33% ... this would be a play, but the public still doesn't take the Zags seriously so it's a no go.
Harvard +11.... 28%
New Mexico State +9 .... 31%
UNLV -2 .... 42% I'll be at this game and even though I'm a big Cal fan I'm taking UNLV... they are the better team and I doubt Cal being near to their home will matter much.
Albany +17.5 .... 22% ... betting against the Devils has been very profitable for me. Gonna do it again here. Almost 8/10 are taking the points.. even if it were 30 points the public would still be the same way.
Syracuse -13.5 .... 46% ... this team still gets no respect... the game will be a blow out.
Creighton -3 ... 45% ... a team playing their best ball... and a team that plays better in the tourney. Gotta take them here.
Western Kentucky +20 ... 26%
Nova +3.5 ... 25% ... this is what against the public betting is all about. The most glaring trap I see on the card. Taking Nova.
Ole Miss +5 .... 33%.. this is a badger team that all the "experts" are picking to go a long way. They will get beaten by a Miss team that is playing their best ball.
UCLA +3 ... 37% ... which bruin team will show up? Taking the points.
Pacific +12.5 ... 17% ... Hahaha 17%? Trap city baby. Somehow Pacific will pull it off. Points!
Illinois -1.5 .... 45% This is my dark horse pick of the tourney! The illini should have no problem with this Buffalo squad. Colorado only plays well at home.
----------------------------------------------------
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

A little explanation of the way these plays work..
An example:
Niagara +11 ... 27%
This means I'm taking Niagara plus the points and only 27% of all bettors are taking them with me. Book always win in the end so it's always smart to be on their side. That's the way these against the public plays work.
Today's NIT games:
Niagara +11 .... 27%
Robert Morris +3.5 .... 19% .. this is the trap of the day. Big play for me as RM will win outright.
Hartford +1 ... 33%
Vermont +8.5 .... 35%... border line play but I like going against SC.
Gardner Webb +2 ... 34%
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Got a couple today...
Creighton +5 .... TRAP. Only 18% taking them here. Good play and should be a very close game.
Colorado State +10.5 .... everyone and his sister is on the Cardinal to win it all. This is a game team they are up agsinst. I see a close battle. Taking the points!
Memphis +6 .... 32%
One more...
Was at the HP pavilion so I saw both of these teams play.. I think Syracuse will have no problem beating Cal. Taking a play on the money line.

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[Bettowin]

Got a couple today...
Creighton +5 .... TRAP. Only 18% taking them here. Good play and should be a very close game.
Colorado State +10.5 .... everyone and his sister is on the Cardinal to win it all. This is a game team they are up agsinst. I see a close battle. Taking the points!

One more...
Was at the HP pavilion so I saw both of these teams play.. I think Syracuse will have no problem beating Cal. Taking a play on the money line.

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I think Duke blows Creighton out. They should at least cover 5 points so I am going with the crowd:)

[hugh]

I wish I had been posting the last week or so... I've been on an absolute tear... hit 10 in a row until the Ohio State meltdown....
Anyways just one today....
BYU (my favorite against the public school) +3 @28% .... BYU will win this outright. America hates this team! Take the three points and the ML.
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