Glufstream Turf Outside Posts

[1GCFAN]

It seems to me there have been a lot of outside horses doing well around 2 turns. I don't have the stats. Prior to this year hadn't the outside positions done poorly? Jan 12th the 6th race at 1 1/16 they finished 10-9-11-13.

[Magister Ludi]

It seems to me there have been a lot of outside horses doing well around 2 turns. I don't have the stats. Prior to this year hadn't the outside positions done poorly? Jan 12th the 6th race at 1 1/16 they finished 10-9-11-13.

stats (http://www.equibase.com/premium/statsByPPMeetPDFDownload.cfm?trackID=GP&beginDate=2012-12-01)

[BIG49010]

You have to remember the rail is moved in and out, and I would advise keeping that in your stats.

[fiveouttasix]

I think the better Stat for Turf Routes this meet at GP is that only 14% of the winners have gone wire/wire.

[cj]

You have to remember the rail is moved in and out, and I would advise keeping that in your stats.

Yes, and on a far greater scale than most other places.

[Robert Fischer]

To their credit,

over the last couple winters, Gulfstream has made a long-overdue change to the timing system.

They've installed trakus, but they seem to be doing something that I haven't noticed at other trakus meets(now i'll have to double check meets like Keeneland, Delmar....)
- They are actually using the trakus system to officially time the races on paper. :eek:

At Gulfstream in the past there's always things with runups, run to the turns, Turf rail placements....

I'm still getting up to date on some of the recent changes, but trakus now provides a consistent timing for the different rail placements.

The old trend used to be that speed held well on the 80ft rail, and closers benefited from the hedge. Not sure if this is true now.

[Tom]

Going back to 2006, I have this through April 2012:

Distances 8, 8.5, 9 furlongs, turf

[OTM Al]

Going back to 2006, I have this through April 2012:

Distances 8, 8.5, 9 furlongs, turf

I've attributed such results to the banking in the turns that come into play with the rail all the way out. Steepest bank I recall seeing in person.

[Red Knave]

This goes from 2004 to 2012.
All grass races 8F and longer.
Post position by field size.

GP Grass Routes. 5 or 6 starters

PP Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1 63 11 17.5 $1.03 1.02 0.97 0.66 1.40 $5.89 3.57 3.35
2 63 11 17.5 $1.05 1.02 0.99 0.68 1.37 $6.04 3.67 3.32
3 63 7 11.1 $1.02 0.65 0.77 0.66 1.12 $9.20 4.70 3.70
4 63 7 11.1 $1.15 0.65 0.69 0.74 1.26 $10.37 4.09 3.49
5 63 13 20.6 $1.43 1.20 1.12 0.92 1.43 $6.95 3.46 3.24
6 53 14 26.4 $2.22 1.58 1.44 1.43 1.43 $8.40 3.48 3.40
Total 368 63 17.1 $1.29 1.00 0.99

GP Grass Routes. 7 or 8 starters

PP Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1 387 51 13.2 $1.61 1.01 0.95 1.04 1.08 $12.22 4.90 4.16
2 387 33 8.5 $1.01 0.65 0.76 0.65 0.87 $11.86 6.30 4.70
3 387 49 12.7 $1.46 0.97 0.99 0.94 1.00 $11.55 5.41 4.38
4 387 57 14.7 $1.70 1.12 1.09 1.10 1.05 $11.52 5.09 4.33
5 387 41 10.6 $1.11 0.81 0.87 0.72 0.95 $10.45 5.74 4.49
6 387 56 14.5 $1.61 1.10 1.03 1.04 1.09 $11.15 4.86 4.06
7 387 60 15.5 $1.35 1.18 1.12 0.87 1.08 $8.73 4.92 4.25
8 255 41 16.1 $2.46 1.29 1.19 1.59 1.05 $15.31 5.07 4.24
Total 2,964 388 13.1 $1.50 1.00 0.99

GP Grass Routes. 9 or 10 starters

PP Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1 567 52 9.2 $1.34 0.88 0.92 0.86 0.77 $14.58 7.27 5.43
2 567 63 11.1 $1.68 1.07 1.03 1.08 0.83 $15.10 6.65 5.21
3 567 53 9.3 $1.15 0.90 0.92 0.74 0.79 $12.29 7.13 5.37
4 567 61 10.8 $1.39 1.03 1.08 0.90 0.78 $12.89 7.23 5.36
5 567 58 10.2 $1.67 0.98 1.07 1.08 0.74 $16.33 7.61 5.51
6 567 60 10.6 $1.38 1.01 0.98 0.89 0.84 $13.07 6.62 5.14
7 567 66 11.6 $1.79 1.12 1.08 1.15 0.84 $15.41 6.62 5.17
8 567 59 10.4 $1.83 1.00 0.94 1.18 0.86 $17.60 6.40 4.96
9 567 58 10.2 $1.25 0.98 0.97 0.81 0.82 $12.18 6.76 5.25
10 349 40 11.5 $1.61 1.15 0.97 1.04 0.92 $14.03 5.93 4.84
Total 5,452 570 10.5 $1.50 1.01 0.99

GP Grass Routes. 11 or more starters

PP Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1 998 66 6.6 $1.14 0.77 0.87 0.74 0.59 $17.26 9.77 6.29
2 998 75 7.5 $1.29 0.88 0.96 0.83 0.62 $17.13 9.35 6.19
3 998 83 8.3 $2.14 0.97 1.05 1.38 0.62 $25.75 9.27 6.13
4 998 94 9.4 $1.40 1.10 1.06 0.90 0.70 $14.87 8.18 5.80
5 998 75 7.5 $1.61 0.88 0.87 1.04 0.68 $21.42 8.43 5.85
6 998 85 8.5 $1.56 1.00 0.99 1.01 0.67 $18.28 8.50 5.86
7 998 91 9.1 $1.90 1.07 1.07 1.23 0.67 $20.81 8.52 5.86
8 998 100 10.0 $1.73 1.17 1.14 1.12 0.69 $17.24 8.28 5.87
9 998 87 8.7 $1.45 1.02 1.01 0.94 0.68 $16.67 8.43 5.85
10 998 82 8.2 $1.62 0.96 0.92 1.05 0.70 $19.66 8.11 5.71
11 998 94 9.4 $1.49 1.10 0.97 0.96 0.76 $15.78 7.41 5.64
12 688 67 9.7 $1.82 1.17 1.14 1.17 0.67 $18.66 8.54 5.89
13 15 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 $0.00 10.52 6.27
14 4 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 $0.00 15.62 7.50
Total 11,685 999 8.5 $1.59 1.00 0.98

[davew]

thanks for posting that summary for the last few years - I was going to starrt betting all post 13 starters....

I think the also eligibles are frequently overlooked in the handicapping, as usually they are scratched, and so are frequently overlays because 1) outside post disadvantage and 2) most people figured they would not make it in.

[Red Knave]

thanks for posting that summary for the last few years - I was going to starrt betting all post 13 starters....

:)
Well, at least there weren't too many.

Interesting that in large fields it's the inside posts that have a problem.

[1GCFAN]

fiveouttasix (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=940) - You are correct about the front runners. It seems to me no matter how slow they go they are vunerable.

[Robert Fischer]

Looking at trakus -


when the rail is out 84feet (compared with 12 feet), the total distance is about 15 feet longer, and the first quarter times tend to be slower.

[JackS]

My observation is that almost always the front running pace setters on the turf are the cheapest speed in the race and will only seldom hit the board. It also seems that the majority of winners will come from midpack (4th,5th,6th) in an average field and 4th-8th in a large field.
To find the contention in the majority of these races,you only need to look at the bulk pace lines to find the horses that will be properly placed in the turn for the home stretch. If your horse fits into this group, and you have run your pace figures and are not outclassed, your chances for a win are very good and your chances for an in the money placement are excellent.

[RXB]

My observation is that almost always the front running pace setters on the turf are the cheapest speed in the race and will only seldom hit the board.


Not true. Although grass obviously plays quite differently than dirt, frontrunners still win more than their fair share.

What has changed is that 10-15 years ago, it was relatively easy for anyone with a good evaluation of early speed to find overlaid prices on the fastest early horse-- and I mean 2f speed, not to the classic "pace call"-- regardless of surface/distance. Those days are gone.