View Full Version : Parx Tues
turninforhome10
01-14-2013, 09:25 PM
Not a selection as much as an observation. Look at First race. See the 5 Golden Rock. 1Ok tag +60k sale price +150k stud fee=?
http://www.pedigreequery.com/golden+rock10
Granddaughter of Nany's Sweep 23 Starts: 6 - 4 - 7, $499,213 Hollywood Oaks.
Has winning 1/2 sister by Indian Charlie. Female line of Marchetta (bluehen mare).
She can be all yours for 10k. Hole somewhere?
lamboguy
01-14-2013, 09:38 PM
when a horse like that debuts on the turf, you know there is a problem. expensive horses that make their first start of their careers in turf sprints tend to underperform their sales prices and pedigree. that is probably one of the greatest angles in this game, the horse is out of the money more than 80% of the time.
turninforhome10
01-14-2013, 10:02 PM
when a horse like that debuts on the turf, you know there is a problem. expensive horses that make their first start of their careers in turf sprints tend to underperform their sales prices and pedigree. that is probably one of the greatest angles in this game, the horse is out of the money more than 80% of the time.
Betting she is not much to look thus the price. Crippled? Not sure. I think she would win her n2l for 7.5k going a mile somewhere in her next three starts. Get the Pot and drop to 5k at Penn for n3l. Never gonna get stuck with her as long as people see that pedigree.
Had a client one time that found an own daughter of Dixieland Band out of Mr. Prospector running at Prairie Meadows (my home track). Took her on the drop from Turfway MSW and was in for 15k N2L. She has a bit of ankle but is sound. Wins her N2L for same price next out. Time off and runs her back later in the meet. Meanwhile I notice that this is a Farish bred and Farish is still breeding Mom. I see a Dixie Union yearling in the family. I find out that this is a nice baby. Then ran over head and got frustrated. Ran her 7.5k. I told him it was a bad idea as he could parlay this if the we can get her right and wait for that 2yo to run. She was claimed. The new owner took her home. Time off and she all told made 113 k
Long story short the baby was Grasshopper. See link for produce record.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/grass+skirt2
Lost her for 7.5k and she was later on worth at least 50k at any sale. In foal to the right sire when Grasshopper hit? Who knows.
Just an insight on another avenue to make money on the horses.
Rise Over Run
01-15-2013, 08:46 AM
Bernardini's stud fee was not $150k in 2008 when he "did his thing" with Zehoorr. The stud fee listed on the PPs is the current (2013) price and I think it was $50k or $60k in 2008. But I'm not disagreeing that this filly has her problems.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 09:21 AM
My question would be this then. What is the current market value of Bernadini's mares at auction? You are right to correct me. Does this filly look like she was bred to race or bred to be sold?
I am going somewhere with this so help me out.
Rise Over Run
01-15-2013, 10:20 AM
I'm sure there are others on this board with far greater knowledge on that than me. But I would think the value of Bernardini mares is far greater than $10k.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 10:35 AM
I'm sure there are others on this board with far greater knowledge on that than me. But I would think the value of Bernardini mares is far greater than $10k.
Exactly, when you are handicapping claiming fillies this time of year, putting a market value on them will help you find when owners are running over class to keep from loosing. This filly is a fire sale. So ask this question. What is the trainer trying to accomplish here. Does he have to take the pot in order to keep owners happy. Who is on the hook for the 60k sale price? Did the filly change owners when leaving Clement's barn? What type of owners are running today? Are they breeders or racing strictly?
Rise Over Run
01-15-2013, 12:16 PM
Who is on the hook for the 60k sale price? Did the filly change owners when leaving Clement's barn? What type of owners are running today? Are they breeders or racing strictly?
Alpha Delta Stables was listed as owner for her first start in 2011.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 12:18 PM
With 10 MTP all claims are down if they show the crowd at all notice if important peoples might be standing in the paddock. They will shake at least 4 claims on this one guessing a Preciado will get it.
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 12:24 PM
Shes got problems, but fresh, and at a route vs. these other problem-horses she should be fine.
4 is a little bit of a wildcard here, as she had speed in the past and this jockey may blow up the race with a move.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 12:33 PM
The point to this thread was this. How does the public make a horse like the :5: and overwhelming 1-2 when the :7: has already ran well against winners? Conditions, Conditions,Conditions. That fact got you an 8-1 winner. (Maiden winner last out cheap?)
And from an owner standpoint, IMHO the :5: was worth the money to claim.
She moves good, no bandages, I feel she is as good as she was today. She fits with the 7.5k-10k types and even if she needs a little time between races, she will get through her N3l conditions and still have residual. She could bank anywhere from 15-30k for those conditions. Look for her to be run over head next out if she was claimed as they will be getting her out of "jail".
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 12:54 PM
Shes got problems, but fresh, and at a route vs. these other problem-horses she should be fine.
4 is a little bit of a wildcard here, as she had speed in the past and this jockey may blow up the race with a move.
Notice any pattern on the :4: after she blew up going long and ran her best. She is running on just her talent now ;)
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 12:59 PM
With 10 MTP all claims are down if they show the crowd at all notice if important peoples might be standing in the paddock. They will shake at least 4 claims on this one guessing a Preciado will get it.
Claimed: Golden Rock by Emerald Field Farm (Donald R. White)
Don White has been doing better lately. Got a new barn lady that is shaping him up.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 01:08 PM
1m70yds. ™Alw 16000s Purse $25,000 (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND
MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING
PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Weight,
122 lbs. Non-winners of two races at one mile or over since November 15, 2012 Allowed 3lbs. Such a race since then Allowed 5 lbs
Before you even handicap the 3rd any other way look at the weights carried and how they are eligible for said impost. How would a trainer gain an advantage by carrying less weight with a better horse?
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 01:28 PM
The :5: is a nice animal that took more weight went up in class. Does not say much about the class of 16k ocl for fillies going long.
Could even run our claimed filly from the first back there and probably get a check.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 01:39 PM
In the lackluster 4th at Parx, ask yourself who really benefits by facing n3l next out.
That old Aristone magic ;) Think the :5: will win his n3l next out?
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 02:27 PM
For those that watch the paddock, in the 5th you were rewarded by see a portly :7: horse that was 9-5. Was she racing fit? Very few works and poor layoff trainer that would probably not drop the horse if she thought she could get a check for 25k. The :5: was fit, and if you could wade through the poor placings you could see this horse was sitting on a big effort against layoff types and first time starter.
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 02:40 PM
PRX RACE 6
:6: contends at good odds
bad trip last, closes vs these weak horses, recency , positive post parade condition .
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 02:48 PM
Jose Flores does very well if he rides one back after a show like last time.
I played the :4: and felt that I had a shot until the incident, horse ran big to come back on after the check. Jose Torres takes his best shot. If you believe that the last race was to bad to be real sometimes it was practice. ;)
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 02:52 PM
the 2 didn't run such a good race.
public had it right on the 3. Last race was better than class and it collapsed. Today speed favoring and weaker class of horses.
:6: ran a weak 3rd after a bad trip early and then a fortunate finish on the corner.
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 02:58 PM
Jose Flores does very well if he rides one back after a show like last time.
I played the :4: and felt that I had a shot until the incident, horse ran big to come back on after the check. Jose Torres takes his best shot. If you believe that the last race was to bad to be real sometimes it was practice. ;)
i don't like the front wraps and the decline in early pace.
4 broke maiden @ 7f and showed solid early pace 93-95 whether you believe that, was at least high 80s. So far Ryerson hasn't got the same early speed from this one.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 02:58 PM
the 2 didn't run such a good race.
public had it right on the 3. Last race was better than class and it collapsed. Today speed favoring and weaker class of horses.
:6: ran a weak 3rd after a bad trip early and then a fortunate finish on the corner.
Think about it like a trainer. The horse was loosing speed going long. Run him today in a sprint and get his speed back, get a check and the start him back long. The trainer got exactly what he wanted today.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 03:02 PM
i don't like the front wraps and the decline in early pace.
4 broke maiden @ 7f and showed solid early pace 93-95 whether you believe that, was at least high 80s. So far Ryerson hasn't got the same early speed from this one.
Ryerson ran the horse last out to get him out jail and claimed him to win in this 75k condition. Look at the purse. He gets out on the horse today on the drop.
Is the horse worth 7.5k
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 03:07 PM
What does it mean to be a NW4l at Parx. Lots of horses don't really want to loose this condition. Notice the number of starts and seconds. Who really wants to become an open horse?
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 03:13 PM
r7
:8: is easily the best horse in field.
the pace complicates things :5: is very quick from the gate and tends to weaken.
Worse = speed is holding today in the mud. :2::4: add pace pressure
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 03:16 PM
poor race by 8
5 didn't fire and the two speeds stole the race.
Villanueva ( :2: ) really should be riding low priced horses more regularly.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 03:21 PM
poor race by 8
5 didn't fire and the two speeds stole the race.
Villanueva ( :2: ) really should be riding low priced horses more regularly.
Dunn claimed her for this spot IMHO, Puts the apprentice on and crushed foes.
She was worth the nickel at Monmouth. Where to next as will have to go looking open. Probably an underlay next.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 03:28 PM
The real gamble in the 8th is why the :6: is in for 25k, I am sure a lot of claiming folks are itchy right now.
ikeika
01-15-2013, 03:33 PM
what about the #3 in the PRX8
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 03:37 PM
now in the 8th race we have a MESS
public is crushing the :6: , who is not an early speed horse, but likely the best horse in the race.
Then we've got 1,2,3,8 who are going to be gunning from the gate because speed looks unstoppable today.
looks like :3::6::1:
and the :7: may follow the 6 here and 7 is 24-1.
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 03:41 PM
The real gamble in the 8th is why the :6: is in for 25k, I am sure a lot of claiming folks are itchy right now.
good eye
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 03:44 PM
what about the #3 in the PRX8
I thought he would open a lead early, but they went a reasonable pace and he proved best of the speeds.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 03:44 PM
what about the #3 in the PRX8
Exactly perfect overlay. That is how you beat 4-5 types. Why would a stakes winning PA bred be running for 25k?. The :2: :5: were gifts for the show and tri pools. Or think about it like this. Somewhere there was trainer having to tell his owners their stakes horse is for a tag.
Nice reward for a solid pick.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 03:56 PM
When handicapping the last race it is for 3yo's 10k n2l. Think about it outside the box for a minute. Which horse got the most out of their last race? Which are still learning?
I think either the :1: or :2: would qualify.
Robert Fischer
01-15-2013, 04:03 PM
I don't like anyone in this last race.
:2: looks like he has good speed. Maybe that's enough in this race?
:6: has some value, won first off claim, isn't a dropper, has a solid jockey. If someone wins by default may as well be the 6.
Passing here.
iceknight
01-15-2013, 04:04 PM
:5: or :7: to WP.
I am concerned about the :9:, and concerned because Suarez decided to switch out of this one. But, as Lucas said: people have opinions, horses have facts..
NP
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 04:11 PM
Look at the :8: really close and notice the claim.The fact he claimed and the horse ran back at same level and got a check was a good get out of jail race and that is a good class drop. Claim, get a check, drop and take the purse.
Lebarron at 4/5 is a bad play against. ;)
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 04:17 PM
:5: or :7: to WP.
I am concerned about the :9:, and concerned because Suarez decided to switch out of this one. But, as Lucas said: people have opinions, horses have facts..
NP
Here is the hitch to that. Look close Ice. The :5: beat PA breds at Penn and the :7: had to go to Penn to break maiden. Both poor plays at Parx. You don't go to Penn unless you have to to get the condition win. The :9: had his best shot with the bug weight last. Adding weight and poor jock is bad combo. Cannon won't drop if he thinks he can get checks at higher level. Think like a trainer.
Sunland anyone?
I will ask questions that might help change your thinking a bit
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 04:21 PM
good eye
The fact that he was not claimed was kind of shocking. They took Lubango from the race.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 05:12 PM
A thought on maiden state breds. 1) If they are being ratty in the paddock look at connections. 2) Loading on the inside when they are loading the gates sucks.
These can be rodeos as some don't have the means to properly break a horse and it shows in their behavior.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 05:28 PM
Anybody watching Sunland would notice the starters grabbing the :8: ear to get them in the gate. If you see that and have a chance to cancel your ticket, you will save a lot of money. Never known a horse to run well after tonged.
Pay attention to Desert God firsters. He is very nice NM stallion.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 05:33 PM
Also at Sunland remember it is a high altitude track.
turninforhome10
01-15-2013, 05:37 PM
Hope this thread helped to think a little more like a trainer and broaden the scope of your handicapping. I must attend to tomorrows cards. Enjoy you night and thanks for reading
Ciao
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