on roi of tvg

[Tiger Hopkins]

Well, I just wanted to point out, that besides all of the ridiculous statements made on TVG, which a think may be aided by martinis of at least one of the cast, I believe Paul LeDuca actually hit the pick 4 yesterday, showing a positive ROI finally! I would like someone with statistical abilility to answer this question if he can. If I show a positive R.O.I. on 200 races using one handicapping factor, is that statistically significant FOR RANDOM RACES, for what to expect in the long run? Ant statistics and probablility majors out there that can help me with acceptable confidence limits. I will share the handicapping factor with anyone kind enough to answer my question correctly. Within 2 or 3 percent accuracy.

[Pensacola Pete]

Your question is far too ambiguous. What do you mean by "one handicapping factor?" One piece of information from the past performances? A composite rating? A weighted average of the same piece of information?

How statistically significant is your factor?

How big of a positive ROi did you have?

Using generic answers, the outlook for your one factor is a 12% to 22% loss with a 95% level of confidence.

[burnsy]

I don't understand. Those guys rarely even pick individual races. Its mostly multi race sequences....pics. As most of those guys do on Tv, picking one race is not good enough for them so how can you be referring to ONE handicapping factor when they pick multiple horses in almost every leg? I highly doubt that every horse chosen fits one factor. But your question seems to be referring to yourself and 200 races. In that case the confidence level would be pretty low on random races because of all the different conditions races are written in. Without knowing details this analysis can not be done. "Random races" could mean first time starters (maidens) and we don't even know what your "handicapping factor" is. If you get through 200 races with a positive ROI....you are doing something right...i can say that with confidence....thats about it. Without knowing the handicapping factor there is no way to know what "random" means because who knows if it even fits the "random" race? And if you think one "secret" or handicapping factor can fit any race, its most likely snake oil, or the magic elixir that guys hawk on the internet.

[JimmyQ]

There whole Play with the Pros marketing is a bunch of junk. They might be setting up to charge in the future for such information which is ludicrous since most of these guys don't even play their own plays. It should be renamed
Play with the Schmoes

JimmyQ

[thaskalos]

Well, I just wanted to point out, that besides all of the ridiculous statements made on TVG, which a think may be aided by martinis of at least one of the cast, I believe Paul LeDuca actually hit the pick 4 yesterday, showing a positive ROI finally! I would like someone with statistical abilility to answer this question if he can. If I show a positive R.O.I. on 200 races using one handicapping factor, is that statistically significant FOR RANDOM RACES, for what to expect in the long run? Ant statistics and probablility majors out there that can help me with acceptable confidence limits. I will share the handicapping factor with anyone kind enough to answer my question correctly. Within 2 or 3 percent accuracy.

I am not a statistics major...but -- in 1987 -- I used a self-created system which allowed me to build my bankroll from $1,000 to $17,000 in a matter of 500 races, spread over five consecutive months. So excited was I, that I quit my job...promising myself that I wouldn't work another day of my life.

I was back at work in a little over 3 months...

[Midnight Cruiser]

Well, I just wanted to point out, that besides all of the ridiculous statements made on TVG, which a think may be aided by martinis of at least one of the cast, I believe Paul LeDuca actually hit the pick 4 yesterday, showing a positive ROI finally! I would like someone with statistical abilility to answer this question if he can. If I show a positive R.O.I. on 200 races using one handicapping factor, is that statistically significant FOR RANDOM RACES, for what to expect in the long run? Ant statistics and probablility majors out there that can help me with acceptable confidence limits. I will share the handicapping factor with anyone kind enough to answer my question correctly. Within 2 or 3 percent accuracy.

I met him the next night at the Vessels club at Los Al. What a nice guy. He cooled off Saturday!

[Valuist]

I am not a statistics major...but -- in 1987 -- I used a self-created system which allowed me to build my bankroll from $1,000 to $17,000 in a matter of 500 races, spread over five consecutive months. So excited was I, that I quit my job...promising myself that I wouldn't work another day of my life.

I was back at work in a little over 3 months...

Was that accomplished at Arlington? I remember that tent meet in 1987 was brutal, at least for me. The dead rail that would occasionally come up did in quite a few people. Hard to believe its been over 25 years.