Santa Anita Friday

[The Spaniard]

race 1: it looks like the debut victory of (3)CUVEE EXCHANGE was unexpected, they thought she needed the race, and the quick return is a very positive sign for this barn. She won big mostly because the others stopped, but this is a filly with upside, and she looks terrific in the paddock.

NP

her victory was a visual mirage, she won big because they stopped

[lamboguy]

looks like the connections are trying to shake up the #8 horse NUESTRO SENOR. my guess is that they will try to get this horse settled off the pace and make a big run before he hits the far turn. lets see if it works.

[The Spaniard]

race 2: (9)I'M NOT GRAY drops from the hottest maiden race of the fall and there was $3.000 of early money, impossible to go against him in this modest field. (1)Majestic Desert (4th) drops from straight maidens with some good workout (59.4) and could show a different face first time dirt for a very good dirt trainer (28% win on the surface lately, 10 wins from the last 36).

win & exacta box

1st ($4.00 - 2.40 - 2.20)

[duncan04]

r2- :5: Tribal Money. Horse ran decent debut race finishing 4th. Love the works over the Santa Anita track. Trainer hits at 22% going from synthetic to dirt and 15% with second time starters.

[The Spaniard]

NUESTRO SEÑOR has a 100% turf pedigree and I don't like this kind od breeding for Santa Anita main track...

[duncan04]

r2- :5: Tribal Money. Horse ran decent debut race finishing 4th. Love the works over the Santa Anita track. Trainer hits at 22% going from synthetic to dirt and 15% with second time starters.

ran second

[sally]

I think the :2: Saturday's Girl is looking ready to roll...

[The Spaniard]

race 3: wide open heat. (3)CORINTHIAN MELODY right now is an overlay. She ran a superb debut over this downhill course, closing from 9th to 2nd behind runaway winner Pogonip. This filly - with high quality European turf lines on the broodmare side (Sarashtani, Blooshing Groom,etc) may be a closing sprinter that wants an strong pace to run at. She lost her punch over a mile behind slow fractions (23.4 > 47.2...) and back in a slowly run turf sprint (23.3 > 46.3). Today, behind quick fractions she's got a nice in the money shot with good odds.

place/show

NP

[porkchop]

RACE 6 #2

[The Spaniard]

race 4: (1)ROAR BABY ROAR comes from an excellent race chasing untouchable Church Avenue and she's got speed to make herself a perfect trip. As daughter of Roar x Carson City she should enjoy dirt. (2)Siempre Esperanza shows 5 for 5 in the money over Santa Anita main track and seems the best for the exacta with her actual huge form.

win & exacta box

1st ($4.60 - 3.20 - 2.80)

[The Spaniard]

race 5: favorite (4)DOUBLEDOWN ON TEN is impossible to oppose dropping to the bottom after a fine race with a speed figure 2,5 lengths faster than the par for this level.

2nd ($2.40- 2.20)

[The Spaniard]

I move to Delta Downs, this Santa Anita card is awful

[The Spaniard]

DELTA DOWNS

[The Spaniard]

race 1: (10)DESTINY'S RUNNER's got back class (won at the 20.000 N2L level) and comes from a good reapperarence but not too taxing (48 Beyer). A 4f bullet before and after the race means she's feeling good right now, and she could be the horse for a hot barn.

NP

[The Spaniard]

SANTA ANITA 7th RACE: (3)DON'T ROCK ME, cruising speed but not speed crazy, he may be able to rate.

NP

[The Spaniard]

race 2: (3)FIND THE TIME could be sitting on a win second time for Keith Burgeois.

1st ($12.80 - 6.20 - 4.80)

[The Spaniard]

race 3: Open race. (7)TAP ON THIS closed nicely for second while rising in class from restricted to open company, improving the speed figure 13 points (6,5 lenghts). Tonight, back against state bred she could go one better over a surface where closers are doing great (2 for 2 right now).

win/place

2nd ($4.80 - 4.00)

really a tough beat, the flow of the race was perfect for her...

[Maximillion]

race 3: Open race. (7)TAP ON THIS closed nicely for second while rising in class from restricted to open company, improving the speed figure 13 points (6,5 lenghts). Tonight, back against state bred he could go one better over a surface where closers are doing great (2 for 2 right now).

win/place

Same boat....boxing with :2:

[The Spaniard]

race 4: (2)SWEETSOUTHERNMOON is the class of the field, but he's also the closer against three fast speed balls who could put him the red carpet. Likes Delta Downs and knows how to win of a layoff for an capable layoff trainer.

1 win / 2 place

NP

[turninforhome10]

The 6 looks unhappy. Try the :4: WP Looks good and working forward

[turninforhome10]

The 6 looks unhappy. Try the :4: WP Looks good and working forward
And that is why it is gambling. Good luck guys.

[Maximillion]

race 5

The :6: ---Nimble Tiger...overall record is poor, and I dont normally like to bet this kind but her body of work here at Delta is very good.Much improved form since shipping here and I believe he will handle the distance fine.

:7: Red Rocker-----Definitely showed a sign in last and wil make the lead here.
Has proven game in the past when doing so.(at long odds)

Both currently taking money but guessing the odds will drift up on both.

win/win

[The Spaniard]

it's no gambling, is Art... Ja! Ja!

race 5: this race is taylor made for a closer (lots of weak speed).
(4)UBETA HOPE (2nd) and (9)GOLD SOUL.

win & win & exacta box

you beat meeeee!!!!

[Maximillion]

it's no gambling, is Art... Ja! Ja!

race 5: this race is taylor made for a closer (lots of weak speed).
(4)UBETA HOPE (2nd) and (9)GOLD SOUL.

win & win & exacta box

you beat meeeee!!!!

You know,I didnt think the favorite would set crazy fractions like he did in last (changed the jockey) but he did it again....luckily for me It didnt matter.

[turninforhome10]

Seems silly to chase a 2/5 but did that race at FG take anything out of him?
The 2 gets better post and could get away from the herd long enough to hold him off. :2:

[The Spaniard]

race 6: exacta box (6)GLORIOUS STRIKE - (8)GET IN THA HOUSE.

NP

that 2 ran a hell of a race TurninforH...!!!

[turninforhome10]

race 6: exacta box (6)GLORIOUS STRIKE - (8)GET IN THA HOUSE.

NP

that 2 ran a hell of a race TurninforH...!!!
He was staggering like an SOB at the 16th pole. I'll take it. The track is being very kind to high %PCT Energy (Brohamer) horses. It is fast for a change.

[Maximillion]

He was staggering like an SOB at the 16th pole. I'll take it. The track is being very kind to high %PCT Energy (Brohamer) horses. It is fast for a change.


Nice pick.

Did it look like he took a bad step in the stretch?

[turninforhome10]

Nice pick.

Did it look like he took a bad step in the stretch?
I think he ran so hard and fast he was just lolly legged and tired. He was throwing his head, IMO cause the jock wanted him to switch leads and fighting him to do it. . Watch his action he is what I call a paddler.

[The Spaniard]

race 7: (10)PUTITONWAYNESTAB could win this race with his A game (Beyers from 70 to 79). Today he'll wear blinkers for the first time. Maybe he unleashes his A game. Maybe...

[The Spaniard]

Turningforhome10: Brohamer's Turn Time worked out just great for me in the Las Americas racetrack, in Mexico City. All the races from 4,5 to 7f, one turn, cheap horses.

[Maximillion]

Turningforhome10: Brohamer's Turn Time worked out just great for me in the Las Americas racetrack, in Mexico City. All the races from 4,5 to 7f, one turn, cheap horses.


Spaniard,
You mainly just use the daily racing form?
(thats what I do)

[The Spaniard]

I'm done for tonight, a strong sleep attack............... :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:

[turninforhome10]

DELTA DOWNS 01-11-2013 RACE 7 OF 10 - TRACK RATING: 84
5.0f DIRT FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
CLAIMING PURSE: $10500 RACE RATINGS: PRE 38

Weighting Factors 1
PP Name PctE SCORE
9 LORENZO *54.49 2.33
6 DRIFTING WIND 54.21 2.86
10 PUTITONWAYNESTAB 53.57 4.02
5 GOLDZAR 53.54 4.08
8 STORM OR TWO 52.72 5.58
7 CHURCHONSUNDAY 52.68 5.66
3 ACE AND JIM 52.41 6.15
2 SALTY AND FAST 51.95 7.00
1 PART OF MY FAMIL 51.78 7.32
4 RISEN IN DEED ???? 10.0
11 BEAUDACIOUS HIT SCR 10.0

I hope you can make sense of this as it is scambled but this is my rankings based on Brohamer %Pct Energy. Speed is holding, Did not play but so far tonight the % has done well.

[The Spaniard]

just DRF. In the 90s I read everything on handicapping, but now I've got my personal cocktail to analyse races. Not sofware and this kind of stuff, with my brain is enough.

bye!

[turninforhome10]

DELTA DOWNS 01-11-2013 RACE 8 OF 10 - TRACK RATING: 84
6.5f DIRT ACCREDITED LA BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES O
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $44000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 50

Weighting Factors 1
PP Name PctE SCORE
2 SIDES SONG *54.00 2.41
8 GATO BRAVO 53.77 2.83
10 CONFLICT COMMAND 53.50 3.32
7 RICHMAR 53.07 4.09
3 JUMP JUMP 52.97 4.27
5 DAVYS RUNNER 52.45 5.21
11 COUSIN KEVIN 52.40 5.31
9 PEACE WINS 51.81 6.37
12 JOSIAH 51.53 6.88
4 SPARKLING KEAT 51.44 7.03
1 TOUGH BRUSH 51.30 7.29
6 LEMON SHERBERT ???? 10.0
Here is the % energy for the 8th race. Nothing to say that I have handicapped the race yet but thought I would throw these out there.

Total Energy = EP + Third Fraction

%Early = EP / Total Energy

[turninforhome10]

Turningforhome10: Brohamer's Turn Time worked out just great for me in the Las Americas racetrack, in Mexico City. All the races from 4,5 to 7f, one turn, cheap horses.
It seems to work on best on bullrings.

[turninforhome10]

The 8 comes in from being claimed for sharp connections and fits for speed.

[turninforhome10]

Melancon did a fantastic job of rating the 8 gets tired and gets taken down by the longshot. The 4 is on a roll. It takes a nice animal to get through those conditions and move up to 15k. Congrats to Brinkman on a nice claim.

[turninforhome10]

Thanks for letting me post some here, I am most gracious. I will in future start my own threads as I appreciate you guys share this space and have a good thing going. Thanks Spaniard and Max. Enjoy your threads.

[Maximillion]

race 9

Willing to try to beat the likely favorite :7: Cocos Shadow.

:3: Ajas Girl---Think the added distance will be to her benefit.Chased the very tough Amazing Saint in last route and had no chance.

:8: Kakis Storm--3rd off the layoff and very logical....again think the added distance will help.

Odds should be generous on both.

win/win

[turninforhome10]

race 9

Willing to try to beat the likely favorite :7: Cocos Shadow.

:3: Ajas Girl---Think the added distance will be to her benefit.Chased the very tough Amazing Saint in last route and had no chance.

:8: Kakis Storm--3rd off the layoff and very logical....again think the added distance will help.

Odds should be generous on both.

win/win
The public read your post and hammered your 8. Nice pick.

[Maximillion]

Thanks for letting me post some here, I am most gracious. I will in future start my own threads as I appreciate you guys share this space and have a good thing going. Thanks Spaniard and Max. Enjoy your threads.

Please keep posting on here....Im always willing to learn another view.

[turninforhome10]

Please keep posting on here....Im always willing to learn another view.
Out of respect for The Spaniard, I will let him steer the ship.
Feel free to chime in to my threads if you wish. Thanks though.

[The Spaniard]

Turningforhome10: personally if I open a thread I like other people to put their picks in it if they are for the same racetrack. When I discover a good handicapper many times I use his picks in my exactas, like in DDowns race 5 where I used Maxi's two horses with my main horse boxed to the minimum stake ($1) "just in case" he was right as many times he's in DDowns. That "just in case" was worth $80. The important think in handicapping is to have good information, one can make that information by himself or getting it from others, or both things at the same time. In French racing I know two guys that if you mix up their picks for spread betting is a killing combination. So, if one evening you are following Santa Anita or DDowns you are welcome to my thread. If I like a longshot and that longshot is high in your rating or Maxi's likes it I'll play the horse with more confidence.

[Maximillion]

Turningforhome10: personally if I open a thread I like other people to put their picks in it if they are for the same racetrack. When I discover a good handicapper many times I use his picks in my exactas, like in DDowns race 5 where I used Maxi's two horses with my main horse boxed to the minimum stake ($1) "just in case" he was right as many times he's in DDowns. That "just in case" was worth $80. The important think in handicapping is to have good information, one can make that information by himself or getting it from others, or both things at the same time. In French racing I know two guys that if you mix up their picks for spread betting is a killing combination. So, if one evening you are following Santa Anita or DDowns you are welcome to my thread. If I like a longshot and that longshot is high in your rating or Maxi's likes it I'll play the horse with more confidence.


These are Spaniards threads, and Im happy being sidecar Willie in them,but I feel the same way he does.....we have a ton of excellent handicappers here
and I would love it if more of them jumped in here or started one for another track.