Derby points

[abe]

Has anyone put together a good form to chart the points races for the Derby?

[redshift1]

This ?


http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2013-point-standings

or this

http://helloracefans.com/races/kentucky-derby/2013-kentucky-derby-prep-schedule/

.

[Investorater]

My top 25 K D contenders as of 1-25-2013. Hopefully these horses will be Triple Crown nominated tomorrow.

A) --> Archwarrior --> Beholder --> Belvin --> Bern Identity --> Brown Almighty

B) --> Dewey Square --> Dynamic Sky --> Five Iron --> Flashback --> Golden Soul

C) --> He's Had Enough --> Indy's Illusion --> Itsmyluckyday --> Little Distorted --> Mentor Cane

D) --> Mudflats --> Norumbega --> Oxbow --> Shakin It Up --> Sky Captain

E) --> Sky Commander --> Tiz The Truth --> Uncaptured --> Violence --> Will Take Charge

[Investorater]

Itsmyluckyday wins the Holy Bull stakes at a 1 1/16.

Also on the card Indy's Illusion and Sky Captain finish in the money in an Allowance Optional Claiming ($75,000) race at a 1 1/8.

Added to the list --> Cerro --> I've Struck A Nerve.....

[Striker]

Pretty sure that Archwarrior is resting in Kentucky and not going to be pointed for the KD and Norumbega will be brought back slowly from the injury by Shug and will not be on the derby trail.

[Investorater]

It is an early trail - thanks for the info.

[Investorater]

Belvin (FL) who is entered in the San Vicente (G2-a non-points prep) today at 7 furlongs will break from the rail and is among my top 10 list for getting the derby distance.

He broke his maiden in his 2nd start at 6 1/2 furlongs from the #10 hole in an eleven horse field. I am of the opinion that he'll stretch out successfully and earn enough points to be in the K D starting gate ..

[turninforhome10]

I will say this about the points: If anybody caught Ed Plesa Jr. on Blinkers Off yesterday, he made some very good points about the points system to the Derby
1) Did Churchill consult with Maryland or New York about how this effects the triple crown series?
2) Are the horses gonna be pushed into making the race in May without regard to the final two?
3) Is this in the best interest of the horses involved?
It was great interview and the guy nailed it right on the head. Does Churchill own the rights to the Triple Crown? Is this system ever gonna allow us to see another triple crown winner?

[Tom]

I can't believe CD had anyone but themselves in mind wit this system.
Why do you think the Ill. Derby gets 0 points?

CD can $ay all they want, they $erve them$elve$ and no one el$e.
Byk has some CD flunky on talking up what a great dea this is, and how they have created fan interest....yadda yadda yadda. I think I bought my Rolex from him a while ago.

[Striker]

And just like that I've Struck a Nerve is #1 on the derby points list. What do we think will be the cutoff to get in to the KD?

[Investorater]

Violence finishes 2nd in the FOY and pays $2.40 with 20 more points earned for a total of 30.

Ive Struck A Nerve finishes 1st in the RS and pays $272.40 with 50 more points earned for a total of 51.

[Sysonby]

The points system is definitely not in the interests of developing a horse for the Triple Crown races.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'd say the system is exactly for developing a horse capable of winning a Triple Crown.I think the sheer lack of seasoning is the reason it hasn't happened in so long.It forces competition and in the end one of these will end up with the foundation enough to endure a TC.

And what's everybody crying about anyway?The horse that won today earned it by crossing the wire first.How is he robbing "better" horses if they refuse to pass him?

I think this is a lot better than a horse winning a big pot as a 2yo,having 1 sorry prep and being afforded the luxury of the Derby gate.Let's at least wait to judge it til mid June.

[menifee]

Violence finishes 2nd in the FOY and pays $2.40 with 20 more points earned for a total of 30.

Ive Struck A Nerve finishes 1st in the RS and pays $272.40 with 50 more points earned for a total of 51.


So let me get this straight. Shanghai Bobby who has won the Hopeful, Champagne, BC Juvenile and broke a track record in finishing second in the Holy Bull is less likely than I've Struck a Nerve to get into the Derby. I've Struck A Never is essentially guaranteed a spot without ever needing to run another race. The Risen Star was a glorified Allowance race. Can someone defend this system?

[Investorater]

You quote me above so where in the hell do you get that I indicated Shanghai Bobby is less deserving of a spot in the KD field.
He's a probable favorite and off my top 25 list but that could change.

It's an early TC trail and I'm not trying to justify the new points system. I'm keeping score of my selections.

[Tread]

So let me get this straight. Shanghai Bobby who has won the Hopeful, Champagne, BC Juvenile and broke a track record in finishing second in the Holy Bull is less likely than I've Struck a Nerve to get into the Derby. I've Struck A Never is essentially guaranteed a spot without ever needing to run another race. The Risen Star was a glorified Allowance race. Can someone defend this system?

A glorified allowance race where the top 5 finishers ran faster than winner Mark Valeski in a Graded Stakes just a few races prior? You cannot possibly be serious.

The whole purpose of the points system is to ensure that the most deserving 3yr olds get in. I could care less what they did at 2, especially anyone who ran in that incredibly awful BCJuvenile. There have been plenty of horses who burn bright at 2 but have already burnt out by 3yr old spring (or get injured).

Truly great 2 yr olds should be able to duplicate this effort at 3. If Shanghai Bobby is as great as you think he is (and we already have seen he is not this year, but whatever) then he should have no problem winning just one race, as IveStruckANerve just did, that would ensure his entrance into the Derby.

I don't want the Derby gate populated with a bunch of flamed out 2yr old has-beens, they can re-prove they belong at 3 if they truly belong

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tailgating on Tom's post,CD has some selfish issues to work out,ie Illinois Derby,but overall this is a good thing.End result will be a 3yo that has just 1 more start than the connections would like,but proves to be the true fight experience that a Triple Crown winner needs.All will be thankful after the fact IMO.

[menifee]

A glorified allowance race where the top 5 finishers ran faster than winner Mark Valeski in a Graded Stakes just a few races prior? You cannot possibly be serious.

The whole purpose of the points system is to ensure that the most deserving 3yr olds get in. I could care less what they did at 2, especially anyone who ran in that incredibly awful BCJuvenile. There have been plenty of horses who burn bright at 2 but have already burnt out by 3yr old spring (or get injured).

Truly great 2 yr olds should be able to duplicate this effort at 3. If Shanghai Bobby is as great as you think he is (and we already have seen he is not this year, but whatever) then he should have no problem winning just one race, as IveStruckANerve just did, that would ensure his entrance into the Derby.

I don't want the Derby gate populated with a bunch of flamed out 2yr old has-beens, they can re-prove they belong at 3 if they truly belong

Shanghai Bobby would dust I've Struck a Nerve. That was a horrible Risen Star. Shanghai Bobby ran a track record as a 3 yr old at GP so he has accomplished something this year.

A 2 yr old campaign should mean something with respect to the Derby. The points system just disregards all 2 yr old races. BTW, you keep comparing this race to the Mark Valeski G3 Mineshaft race. The horses in that "G3 race" were not world beaters.

The Risen Star blanket finish tells you all you need to know. All the horses ran their race in terms of prior figs (except the winner), it was just a slow race.

Finally, El Padrino and Mark Valeski went 1-2 in last years Risen Star. El Padrino qualified mainly as a result of his victory in a subpar 2012 Risen Star. How did he end up doing in the Derby?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Shanghai Bobby would dust I've Struck a Nerve. That was a horrible Risen Star. Shanghai Bobby ran a track record as a 3 yr old at GP so he has accomplished something this year.

A 2 yr old campaign should mean something with respect to the Derby. The points system just disregards all 2 yr old races. BTW, you keep comparing this race to the Mark Valeski G3 Mineshaft race. The horses in that "G3 race" were not world beaters.

The Risen Star blanket finish tells you all you need to know. All the horses ran their race in terms of prior figs (except the winner), it was just a slow race.

Finally, El Padrino and Mark Valeski went 1-2 in last years Risen Star. El Padrino qualified mainly as a result of his victory in a subpar 2012 Risen Star. How did he end up doing in the Derby?

No.A 2yo campaign means nothing.A BC win is 6 months away.It's not a garnishment.It's not a padded luxury.

What are you rooting for anyway?The first Triple Crown winner to have 1 prep race and do it?

I'm going to go out on a limb here.You either don't know what you are talking about and this is borderline female level reactiveness.Or you are full of it!But do please explain because I think this is bordeline the best thing since sliced bread.

[menifee]

No.A 2yo campaign means nothing.A BC win is 6 months away.It's not a garnishment.It's not a padded luxury.

What are you rooting for anyway?The first Triple Crown winner to have 1 prep race and do it?

I'm going to go out on a limb here.You either don't know what you are talking about and this is borderline female level reactiveness.Or you are full of it!But do please explain because I think this is bordeline the best thing since sliced bread.

Well I'm a male, but thanks for demonstrating your idiocy with your chauvinistic comment.

2yr old races mean something. If a horse has a solid 2 yr old campaign and gets injured towards the end of that campaign, I don't think you can just write off that horse because he did not win a race in the past few months prior to the Derby. Two yr old races build foundation. Why do you just toss those races? They are the same animal. They may mature physically, but they develop their heart during the 2 yr old campaign.

BTW, under this points system you like more that sliced bread, Charismatic (a horse that really did not do anything at 2), but was almost a Triple Crown winner would not have qualified for the Derby this year. So, even in your world where all you care about is 3 yr old races, it can punish the late developing three year old as well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well I'm a male, but thanks for demonstrating your idiocy with your chauvinistic comment.

2yr old races mean something. If a horse has a solid 2 yr old campaign and gets injured towards the end of that campaign, I don't think you can just write off that horse because he did not win a race in the past few months prior to the Derby. Two yr old races build foundation. Why do you just toss those races? They are the same animal. They may mature physically, but they develop their heart during the 2 yr old campaign.

BTW, under this points system you like more that sliced bread, Charismatic (a horse that really did not do anything at 2), but was almost a Triple Crown winner would not have qualified for the Derby this year. So, even in your world where all you care about is 3 yr old races, it can punish the late developing three year old as well.

What type of horse are you rooting for?

I'm rooting for the guy that gets a head full of steam in the spring and is thriving on a race regimen and when you stand next to him he's neighing and puffing so hard he wants to kick your ass.Ready to pound flesh and take names over 33 furlongs.Where does your heart lie?

[Some_One]

Well I'm a male, but thanks for demonstrating your idiocy with your chauvinistic comment.

2yr old races mean something. If a horse has a solid 2 yr old campaign and gets injured towards the end of that campaign, I don't think you can just write off that horse because he did not win a race in the past few months prior to the Derby. Two yr old races build foundation. Why do you just toss those races? They are the same animal. They may mature physically, but they develop their heart during the 2 yr old campaign.

BTW, under this points system you like more that sliced bread, Charismatic (a horse that really did not do anything at 2), but was almost a Triple Crown winner would not have qualified for the Derby this year. So, even in your world where all you care about is 3 yr old races, it can punish the late developing three year old as well.

Charismatic would of had 34 points which would had him 17th if the field was like last year's Derby (but the Derby was only 14 then right?)

[Tread]

Shanghai Bobby would dust I've Struck a Nerve. That was a horrible Risen Star. Shanghai Bobby ran a track record as a 3 yr old at GP so he has accomplished something this year.

A 2 yr old campaign should mean something with respect to the Derby. The points system just disregards all 2 yr old races. BTW, you keep comparing this race to the Mark Valeski G3 Mineshaft race. The horses in that "G3 race" were not world beaters.

The Risen Star blanket finish tells you all you need to know. All the horses ran their race in terms of prior figs (except the winner), it was just a slow race.

Finally, El Padrino and Mark Valeski went 1-2 in last years Risen Star. El Padrino qualified mainly as a result of his victory in a subpar 2012 Risen Star. How did he end up doing in the Derby?

How did he do in the Derby? He injured himself! This is your point you are going to lean on????

The Mineshaft was nearly full of older horses that had run 100+ BRIS speeds and had 0 or lower Thorograph figures. It was a tough graded stakes race, not a glorified allowance race as you are so ridiculously trying to project.

If you want to talk about glorified allowance races, lets talk about last year's BC Juvenile, which was a TERRIBLE race that has not produced a single winner since. This is the exact reason we need the points system, so that we don't apply too much weight to high-purse 2yr old races that mean absolutely nothing on the current condition of 3yr olds at the time of the Derby.

The point you are trying to make continues to make absolutely no sense at all. There is no need for a 2yr old campaign to mean anything. You said it yourself, all a horse like Shanghai Bobby needs to do is win ONE race, that's it, that's all he has to do. Should be no problem at all for a superstar like him, right? That is, unless he is a brilliant 2yr old that flamed out too soon, which is exactly what none of us want clogging up the starting gate and forcing out more promising horses.

If Shanghai Bobby runs twice more prior and finishes 5th and 6th, does he even belong in the Derby? The only possible thing you would be basing it on then would be his 2yr old performances, which is exactly what this system is trying to prevent. If he belongs in the Derby, he can prove at 3 that he belongs. He only needs to win one race to do it.

It's great you love this horse so much, but you are definitely over-estimating his chances away from a conveyor belt like Gulfstream and as these races get longer. It would have been very interesting to see him face that Risen Star field on the deep, tiring track that was drying out from earlier rain and against so much other early speed pressure. After being beaten by a Calder stakes horse 1st out this year and seeing how poorly all the other horses from the BCJuv have ran this year, I'm not sure why anyone would still have so much confidence in him, but we will see what happens.

At 10F, there are several horses from that race who would beat Shanghai Bobby, you will find out soon enough. At 10F Shanghai Bobby couldn't dust my fireplace mantle.

[Tread]

Charismatic would of had 34 points which would had him 17th if the field was like last year's Derby (but the Derby was only 14 then right?)

No, the field was 20 that year, has been since 1975. Try again Menifee, if you keep pulling stuff out of dark places, maybe you will actually find something truthful one of these times!

[Tom]

You can't say who would not have gotten in back then because if they had know the points races, they would have altered their prep races.


I don't know about anyone else, but I am on pins and needles scoring at home this year! :jump:

[Leparoux]

I like it. It forces horses to not only run in the prep races, but to perform in them. I don't think it is perfect by any means but to those ripping it apart, what would you suggest? There are holes in any system like this but I am a fan.

[camourous]

This is definitely a better system for the sport of horse racing, it should force the good horses to run more often than they do. I'm sure these new age trainers hate it since it will force them to race their horses instead a breezing them 12 times between starts...

[horses4courses]

Sure, the Illinois Derby gets a rough deal due to politics.
Hopefully, something will be done about it.

The Dubai race has been a guaranteed spot in the Derby gate for years.
Nothing new there.

I sure won't miss that Delta Jackpot winner going in the gate, though.
What's their winning history in the Derby?

[Some_One]

You can't say who would not have gotten in back then because if they had know the points races, they would have altered their prep races.


I don't know about anyone else, but I am on pins and needles scoring at home this year! :jump:

Of course, although the state of preps in the late 90s weren't anything like they were over the last 5 years.

[Robert Fischer]

I want to share some notes about the Risen Star Stakes vs The Mineshaft Handicap.

Mark Valeski won the Mineshaft Handicap carrying 119lbs.
The 6F time was 114.80(2.06seconds slower than the Risen Star).
They finished in 30.02 seconds, with Mark Valeski clocking a final time of 144.82(00.30 seconds slower than the Risen Star) and a Beyer Speed Figure of 97.

Ive Struck a Nerve won the Risen Star Stakes carrying 116lbs.
The 6F time was 112.74(2.06seconds faster than the Mineshaft).
They finished in 31.78 seconds, with Ive Struck a Nerve clocking a final time of 144.52(00.30 seconds faster than the Mineshaft) and a Beyer Speed Figure of 95.


So you have 2 races that were run with a much different pace scenario. Apparently, Beyer thought it was significant enough to upgrade the Mineshaft to a higher figure, even though the final time was slower.

[letswastemoney]

I want to share some notes about the Risen Star Stakes vs The Mineshaft Handicap.

Mark Valeski won the Mineshaft Handicap carrying 119lbs.
The 6F time was 114.80(2.06seconds slower than the Risen Star).
They finished in 30.02 seconds, with Mark Valeski clocking a final time of 144.82(00.30 seconds slower than the Risen Star) and a Beyer Speed Figure of 97.

Ive Struck a Nerve won the Risen Star Stakes carrying 116lbs.
The 6F time was 112.74(2.06seconds faster than the Mineshaft).
They finished in 31.78 seconds, with Ive Struck a Nerve clocking a final time of 144.52(00.30 seconds faster than the Mineshaft) and a Beyer Speed Figure of 95.


So you have 2 races that were run with a much different pace scenario. Apparently, Beyer thought it was significant enough to upgrade the Mineshaft to a higher figure, even though the final time was slower.
I am frustrated when he does this. I can have a different opinion of whether that pace really affected that outcome (I'm not saying I do, but I could). It's better to just let the handicapper get the true number and let him interpret the data for himself.

They are just trying to dumb down the handicapping process so people don't have to think for themselves and they can just look at the number. I want some consistency though. Is it a speed figure or is the Beyer figure a performance figure?

[Tread]

I am frustrated when he does this. I can have a different opinion of whether that pace really affected that outcome (I'm not saying I do, but I could). It's better to just let the handicapper get the true number and let him interpret the data for himself.

They are just trying to dumb down the handicapping process so people don't have to think for themselves and they can just look at the number. I want some consistency though. Is it a speed figure or is the Beyer figure a performance figure?

Not to mention the fact that he arbitrarily picks certain factors to use and other physics, fact-based items like weight and ground loss he openly tosses and does not even consider. You could have a rail skimming horse carrying 10 fewer pounds beat another horse who traveled 4 wide around two turn by about a length and he would give the winner a higher figure. Simpleton figures for simpleton horseplayers.

[letswastemoney]

Not to mention the fact that he arbitrarily picks certain factors to use and other physics, fact-based items like weight and ground loss he openly tosses and does not even consider. You could have a rail skimming horse carrying 10 fewer pounds beat another horse who traveled 4 wide around two turn by about a length and he would give the winner a higher figure. Simpleton figures for simpleton horseplayers.
I do not believe Beyer figures are simpleton figures for simpleton horseplayers. I'm only upset that he is making it into more than what it is, a speed figure. No one in their right mind takes only the speed figure into account when handicapping, but I don't want it to factor in anything but the final time in relation to par. Once you start factoring in things like weight and class, the figure becomes someone else's opinion and not an objective number.

[redshift1]

I want to share some notes about the Risen Star Stakes vs The Mineshaft Handicap.

Mark Valeski won the Mineshaft Handicap carrying 119lbs.
The 6F time was 114.80(2.06seconds slower than the Risen Star).
They finished in 30.02 seconds, with Mark Valeski clocking a final time of 144.82(00.30 seconds slower than the Risen Star) and a Beyer Speed Figure of 97.

Ive Struck a Nerve won the Risen Star Stakes carrying 116lbs.
The 6F time was 112.74(2.06seconds faster than the Mineshaft).
They finished in 31.78 seconds, with Ive Struck a Nerve clocking a final time of 144.52(00.30 seconds faster than the Mineshaft) and a Beyer Speed Figure of 95.


So you have 2 races that were run with a much different pace scenario. Apparently, Beyer thought it was significant enough to upgrade the Mineshaft to a higher figure, even though the final time was slower.


Perhaps the condition of the track was changing? I'm just guessing but perhaps the track was getting faster.

.

[Some_One]

Nah, they decided that the pace was too slow and used more a projection theory to get the winners beyer, if the Mineshaft was run at the same pace as the Risen Star, Im sure the final time would have been much lower

[Robert Fischer]

My intention was to illustrate the pace difference, rather than to criticize the speed figure.

[Leparoux]

Shanghai Bobby would dust I've Struck a Nerve. That was a horrible Risen Star. Shanghai Bobby ran a track record as a 3 yr old at GP so he has accomplished something this year.

A 2 yr old campaign should mean something with respect to the Derby. The points system just disregards all 2 yr old races. BTW, you keep comparing this race to the Mark Valeski G3 Mineshaft race. The horses in that "G3 race" were not world beaters.

The Risen Star blanket finish tells you all you need to know. All the horses ran their race in terms of prior figs (except the winner), it was just a slow race.

Finally, El Padrino and Mark Valeski went 1-2 in last years Risen Star. El Padrino qualified mainly as a result of his victory in a subpar 2012 Risen Star. How did he end up doing in the Derby?

Only because a long shot won?

The Risen Star featured 5 of the 23 individual wagering options from Derby pool 1. Without having any facts in front of me, that seems like a bunch for this race.

[depalma113]

BTW, under this points system you like more that sliced bread, Charismatic (a horse that really did not do anything at 2), but was almost a Triple Crown winner would not have qualified for the Derby this year. So, even in your world where all you care about is 3 yr old races, it can punish the late developing three year old as well.

Ummm....Charismatic would not have qualified for the 1999 Kentucky Derby had more than 20 horses been entered based on the old graded stakes system. I don't beleive his Lexington win gave him enough to get in.

[_______]

Ummm....Charismatic would not have qualified for the 1999 Kentucky Derby had more than 20 horses been entered based on the old graded stakes system. I don't beleive his Lexington win gave him enough to get in.

Charismatic made the field on earnings. Etbauer and Torrid Sand were the two excluded in 1999.

[Tread]

Funny you guys are bringing up 1999, Lemon Drop Kid is the PERFECT example of a 2yr old flameout who never should have even been in the Derby. He would have gotten like 14 pts via 2yr old stakes, came out at 3 and won an allowance race and then finished 5th in the BlueGrass. Would have been zero points and he likely would not have made it. He finished a completely non-threatening 9th.

FWIW Charismatic had 34 pts after 4th in the SA Derby and 2nd in the Bay Meadows/El Camino Real, which was more than LDK, First American, Desert Hero, or KOneKing just for starters.

[rastajenk]

Yeah, but since he won the Belmont a month later, he weren't no bum. :p

[Tread]

I had actually forgotten that, 1999 was a long time ago! He was a bum in the Derby and other spring preps though.

[Leparoux]

It's silly to say what horses would have made it or not in a given year because obviously they would have had different paths to the Derby if the rules were different.

[PaceAdvantage]

Charismatic made the field on earnings. Etbauer and Torrid Sand were the two excluded in 1999.Best....user...name....evah.... :lol:

[menifee]

Funny you guys are bringing up 1999, Lemon Drop Kid is the PERFECT example of a 2yr old flameout who never should have even been in the Derby. He would have gotten like 14 pts via 2yr old stakes, came out at 3 and won an allowance race and then finished 5th in the BlueGrass. Would have been zero points and he likely would not have made it. He finished a completely non-threatening 9th.

FWIW Charismatic had 34 pts after 4th in the SA Derby and 2nd in the Bay Meadows/El Camino Real, which was more than LDK, First American, Desert Hero, or KOneKing just for starters.

2yr old flameout? He won the Belmont Stakes. He also won the Travers, the Whitney and the Woodward.

He's a perfect example of a solid two year old then did nothing early in his 3 yr old campaign but should have been in the Derby. His 2 yr old campaign got him into the Derby. Of course, he should have been there, he was a good horse which history proved. He did not win the Derby, but he was one of the best of his generation.

War Emblem would be another horse that would not have made it under this points system because the Illinois Derby is just disregarded. You are right that trainers would have taken a different path if there was a points system then, but that doesn't guarantee a good horse would have gotten in if they had taken that path. Ten Most Wanted is another example of a good horse that needed to take the path of the Illinois Derby to get in. I know he did not end up doing much in the Derby, but he was one of the best in his class.

Listen, I understand the need to weight races rather than just a pure earnings formula as in years past. The Delta Jackpot situation was ridiculous. But completely underweighting 2 yr old races and tossing certain 3 yr old races (Illinois Derby) makes no sense to me. Overweighting the UAE Derby makes no sense to me either.

If I were to change this, I would include the Illinois Derby as a major prep ("Second Leg of Series"). I would knock the UAE derby down to be equivalent to the Risen Star/FOY, etc ("First Leg of Series"). I would at a minimum make the Breeders Cup Juvenile a First Leg of Series race. I would probably double the point value of certain G1 two yr old preps (20,8,4,2).

[_______]

Best....user...name....evah.... :lol:

Thanks. Hopefully my posts can live up to the early review.

[precocity]

Thanks. Hopefully my posts can live up to the early review.
:lol: clever now you can talk smack and reply to :D

[precocity]

got a feeling its going to be a mine that bird type of derby?

[Leparoux]

Listen, I understand the need to weight races rather than just a pure earnings formula as in years past. The Delta Jackpot situation was ridiculous. But completely underweighting 2 yr old races and tossing certain 3 yr old races (Illinois Derby) makes no sense to me. Overweighting the UAE Derby makes no sense to me either.

If I were to change this, I would include the Illinois Derby as a major prep ("Second Leg of Series"). I would knock the UAE derby down to be equivalent to the Risen Star/FOY, etc ("First Leg of Series"). I would at a minimum make the Breeders Cup Juvenile a First Leg of Series race. I would probably double the point value of certain G1 two yr old preps (20,8,4,2).

Finally, some suggested changes as opposed to just bashing what we have. Kudos.

The Illinois Derby should be included in the formula but not as a major prep.

You overweight the UAE Derby to encourage that winner to come over and run. I like that a lot, adds to the intrigue of the Derby.

I would be on board with your idea for the BC Juvenile.

[Jasonm921]

I like the points but they need to pkay around with the values...is the Fountain of Youth really worth 5x as much as the Holy Bull? They have to find a way to make the points as competitive as possible while promoting full participation in the series of races.

[burnsy]

No one in their right mind takes only the speed figure into account when handicapping

Are you sure about that? Because if you read what people post, i get the feeling that many people base a great part of their play on these numbers. Especially the younger people. I'll look at the beyer but its not that big of a deal to me. These horses are animals they are not machines. The horse that won the Risen Star increased his number some 25 points in one race. The other thing i noticed is that the figure is not transferable track to track. If a horse ships or is new to the surface its easy to like a horse with a lower number because the other horse can't repeat the performance. Horses run against inferior competition and get inflated numbers. There are so many holes i can punch in those figures that its just one little thing to consider in the big picture. If winning a horse race could be figured out by one number people should be getting rich and winning all the time.......if only life were that easy, unfortunately it does not work that way. The guy that posted the "simpleton" statement is sort of right....theres nothing simple about betting this game....its hard. The figs may help but relying on them is a road to ruin if you don't learn any other angles and develop some personal, horseplayer intuition.

[nijinski]

I'm sure there a list of past winners that would not have made it to the Derby with the point system . I think fillys are eliminated unless they
adjust their campaigns . Genuine Risk , would not have qualified .

Not that I'm terribly upset about it , some don't belong . Jenny did.

[iceknight]

I'm sure there a list of past winners that would not have made it to the Derby with the point system . I think fillys are eliminated unless they
adjust their campaigns . Genuine Risk , would not have qualified .

Not that I'm terribly upset about it , some don't belong . Jenny did. just caught up on Genuine Risk preakness story. What was/is your opinion on Cordero's move/stewards decisions etc from the 1980 Preakness?

La times link (http://articles.latimes.com/1988-05-21/sports/sp-3036_1_wayne-lukas)

One youtube angle (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0iFI7aLsQY)

CNNSI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1123472/4/index.htm)

[nijinski]

just caught up on Genuine Risk preakness story. What was/is your opinion on Cordero's move/stewards decisions etc from the 1980 Preakness?

La times link (http://articles.latimes.com/1988-05-21/sports/sp-3036_1_wayne-lukas)

One youtube angle (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0iFI7aLsQY)

CNNSI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1123472/4/index.htm)
He did his best race riding and mugged her .
I remeber the Firestones relentlessly trying to get some justice . They
and Jenny were denied .
Doubt he, Cordero , purposely hit her in the face though . Not in front of that many witnesses. .
There was alot of interesting race riding going on back then , but Day and
Cordero will be rembered for taking out two separate fillys in two Classics .

[Investorater]

UPDATE on my Top contenders for the K D from post #3 of this thread........

.......Will Take Charge - 60 points (pays $58.00 for the win in the Rebel)

.......Ive Struck A Nerve - 51 points (not in competition)

.......Oxbow - 36 points (2nd in the Rebel)

.......Flashback - 30 points (2nd in the San Felipe)

[Tread]

EXCELLENT column by Gary West here on the points system:

http://www.equibase.com/static/statistics/eleaders.html#3M

Gives perfect analysis of why the 2yr old races are meaningless and the weighting assigned to them in the point structure is spot on.

For those of you trying to go back and apply this new system to prior years, what about the flipside, applying the old system to this year? Do you really want horses like He's Had Enough, Capo Bostone, Fortify, and Balance The Books clogging up the Derby starting gate? I sure as hell don't.

[Longshot6977]

That is a link to the stats page. Do you have the link to the article?

[Tread]

Sry about that, was still in my clipboard from a previous post. Here is the ESPN article

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/9053540/rebel-proof-new-points-system-works

[Investorater]

My Kentucky Derby contender's point list from post #3_____

Flashback --> (70) --> Will Take charge --> (60) --> Itsmyluckyday --> (50)

Oxbow --> (36) --> Uncaptured --> (30)


[Not on list] --> Orb --> (150) --> Black Onyx --> (50) .....

[Investorater]

A Longshot in-the-money pick is #17 Will Take charge.

The colt who accumulated the most points on my K d LisT

[Hedevar]

I can't believe CD had anyone but themselves in mind wit this system.
Why do you think the Ill. Derby gets 0 points?

CD can $ay all they want, they $erve them$elve$ and no one el$e.
Byk has some CD flunky on talking up what a great dea this is, and how they have created fan interest....yadda yadda yadda. I think I bought my Rolex from him a while ago.


CD gave the Illinois Derby 0 points because it is run at Hawthorne, Arlington's chief rival and Arlington wants Hawthorne's dates.

[Tom]

That race has produced a recent derby winner and it gets 0 points.
The stupid UAE Race has never even produced an in the money finisher, has it? And it get 100 Point?

My hope is that every year, the Illinois Derby winner nails the Derby winner in the Preakness and then takes the Belmont.