Turf Paradise Monday

[The Spaniard]

race 1: Quick (2)TIZ TOP is the lone speed, should wire this field.

1st ($3.60 - 3.40 - 2.20)

[johnhannibalsmith]

Value bet here :6: Sky Avenger: Draws outside, don't think he'll get left too far behind and that's when he's at his best - grinding away on the outside trying to wear everyone down. May have tailed off some, but price is right now @ 7-1.

[Zydeco]

Good call. Stinks he went from 2-1, to 8-5, to 4-5 by the time the race finished.

[The Spaniard]

race 2: (3)SNOWBOUND MARKITA bounced after a "monster" win (79 Beyer, 8,5 lengths faster than today's par time). Here she should have a confortable lead and may rebound dropping in class again. (6)Indy Beauty looks like a synthetics specialist.

NP (Carreño awful)

[johnhannibalsmith]

Little bit of love for :2: Lil Dish in this spot. Just think she's actually a little better than most here and the price is again right at 7-1.

[porkchop]

RACE 3 #5 SCRATCHED SORRY

RACE 5 # 5

[The Spaniard]

race 3: with the scratch of Sunday Eve we've got a frontrunner, (4)SERIUS STUFF, and five deep closers. It's impossible to against her with an easy lead guaranteed, but she's not a sure thing.

NP (On Time Again showed speed for the first time and no easy lead for the pick)

[The Spaniard]

race 4: (6)Boundtobebusy woke up with his new trainer but he's got a history of stamina problem in the last furlong and here (2)MOLTO will fight for the lead. Stalker (5)FRENZO may have found his true level and Paul Aguirre is doing great with "the workout in an official turf race" (6 wins from the last 14 races with this technique).

2nd ($2.60 - 2.60)

[The Spaniard]

race 6: Another contentious race with no value. (3)FATHER JAMES usually needs 2 o 3 runs after the layoff to to reach peak form. The favorite's barn is ice cold right now.

3rd ($3.80) (very wide trip)

[The Spaniard]

race 7: there are here 3 horses with speed (3, 4 and 9), if they engage in a battle for the lead deep closers (1)STORMY SEATTLE and (5)CURIOSITY could profit and maybe get the job done.

win & win 2nd & NP

[johnhannibalsmith]

Sticking with the capable at a decent price, I sorta like :3: Glenwick to bounce back with a better race at 9-1.

[The Spaniard]

race 8: (1)TAXI RIDE has found new fountain of youth in Paradise and she's got a shot running just behind the pacesetters, companion (1-A)TOOSCAN MOON is in good form too and will roll late.

[The Spaniard]

race 8: (1)TAXI RIDE has found new fountain of youth in Paradise and she's got a shot running just behind the pacesetters, companion (1-A)TOOSCAN MOON is in good form too and will roll late.

NP

[The Spaniard]

race 9: A terminal field. (11)FRISKY FOR HIS AGE at least is a new face, and his trainer shows a huge ROI with maiden claimers, sometimes they win (2 from last 12 won) with good odds.

[johnhannibalsmith]

On to Tuesday, just glancing at the tote board for the 5th... Even money on the outside filly, the price on :7: Little Lucky Lake is 25-1 for her second career start. First time broke fairly well, but then started to lug out down the backside and lost ground early, rallied well on the turn while getting out, made a little run inside the quarter pole but ran green, impeding the filly to her inside and flattened late. It was an eventful debut with several little runs and just no bottom. A couple of works since, maybe she'll run hard and fairly straight throughout and run considerably better at a big price.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Broke on top, set a clear pace to the eighth pole and ran out of steam. Definitely improved a ton, but probably needed that one too and ended up stopping just out of superfecta range.