You are mentoring a promising beginner...

[thaskalos]

A bright, financially responsible beginner comes to you and asks you to play a major role in his development as a horseplayer...and he will not be dissuaded by your advice that this game might no longer be worth getting serious about. He sees you as a winning player, and asks you to be a mentor of sorts to him.

He is looking for something a little more substantial than book recommendations and trite advice -- like "play on paper until you prove you can win"...or "stick to win bets, and leave the exotics for later on".

He wants you to take him by the hand, and guide him through the early, highly impressionable stage of a horseplayer's education.

What do you tell him?

[LottaKash]

He wants you to take him by the hand, and guide him through the early, highly impressionable stage of a horseplayer's education.

What do you tell him?

I would teach him what the 4-most important handicapping components are...

Ability; Form; Angles; and Value;.....And, I would show him my way of mastering each of those 4-major components....

And, along the learning trail, I would advise him to "Play Only What You Know and have Learned"....

I would emphasize that there is a difference between Handicapping Factors and Handicapping Situations or Categories, and knowing which Factors fit best in which Category, are key...ONe size does not fit all....

[atlasaxis]

I've actually had someone come to me with this request. I simply pointed him to where I received most of my "education", the person who could explain it better than I ever could. LottaKash hit home with his advice as it seems his source is the same as mine, Dick Mitchell. I am not associated in any way with Cynthia Publishing except I am a very satisfied customer. I have no problem pointing a beginner or a seasoned player to their site & strongly suggesting they get their product called the DVD Dozen. http://www.cynthiapublishing.com/dvdclub.html
Invaluable information imho.

[freeflow]

As a college student getting more serious in the game I am intrigued and will be following this post, can always use more knowledge.

[Dave Schwartz]

I would say that the most important considerations are:

1. Picking good contenders
2. Knowing what the definition of value is. (Don't think for a minute that players do.)
3. Learn how to "exploit a race" properly.
4. Learn how to manage one's money.

This is a 10,000-foot view. Obviously, there is a lot involved to actually accomplish these steps.

My methods for accomplishing these 4 things are would be considered somewhat abnormal to most players. I can only assume that the naysayers here would tell me why my approach(es) cannot possibly work. LOL


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Quesmark]

Specialize,become expert in certain categories/subsets of the racing game,and understand them deeper,that creates natural limits,which prevents the dreaded overshoot where the bankroll gets eaten up by churn.
Less is more,when you find an ideal situation,back up the truck and fire away,get as much as possible out of the potential.
Avoid becoming an action junkie,this is the biggest reason many horseplayers walk around with holes in their shoes.
Enjoy the sport,attempt to achieve profitability,but don't become consumed with it,have clearly defined parameters,stick to them,and practice moderation.
When the "scores" happen use the proceeds creatively,don't feel guilty and send them right back,do something different,expand skills in other areas/fields too.
Good luck...

[thearmada]

As a college student getting more serious in the game I am intrigued and will be following this post, can always use more knowledge.
Same here. Should be a good one.

[lamboguy]

i would teach him that in the year 2013 to learn why horses act the way they act. such as when horses are turned out in a field there is always one that is the leader of the pack no matter how big the pack, he will lead and others will follow.i would go from there and teach him that for a horse to perform well he needs to be comfortable. some horses need to be in front while others like to be behind covered up and chasing the pace.

[Capper Al]

I was thinking about finding a mentor for myself after my results get into a database. (It has been hard to find the time to build the database. ) A second set of eyes, if I find the right mentor,should help me improve my game.

The problem of mentoring is trust. How much info gets shared. Would a mentor give away his cherrished secrets? The stuff a mentee really wants to know. I don't know if I could give away my hard fought lessons to a stranger.

[Johnny V]

In addition to some of the points mentioned so far I would tell him to be diligent in keeping careful betting records. I think this is one area often overlooked by handicappers.

[mrhorseplayer]

If your a successful gambler I would tell him there is more to the game then cappin and show him how to come up with a wagering strategy, in other words teach him the gambling aspect of the game, there are lots of good cappers that lose money because they dont know how to wager.

[Greyfox]

I would tell him to have a mind of his own and truly learn as you go.

[barn32]

I would tell him he is a fool for even considering it.

[Robert Goren]

First and foremost, this is game of more DON'Ts than DOs. Tell him to watch the races bets and then watch the replay a couple of more times. Watching replays is huge. Watch it once with an eye on the horse he bet. Watch it again with an eye on the horses he thought about betting. And if none of them was the winner,then watch it again with eye on the winner. Go back to the form and see if can figure why each horse ran the way it did. If he is at the track(and should be at the track if he is first starting out),hang around the paddock even before the horses arrive and after they leave. Keep your eyes and ears open and eavesdrops on trainers when ever you can. Take notes while there. Stick to one track/ circuit until you are showing a profit. The most important single thing to teach him is about is lone speed. When to bet it and even more importantly when not to. Make sure he knows how to read the the form. You amazed at the number of people who don't know what every column is and what all numbers and symbols stand for. Teach him to look at the distance between the place horse and the show horse. That is the most over looked number on the form. If you are at non major track teach him about difference in older bottom claiming races. the NW in 6 months, NW of 2 in 9 months etc. maybe more latter.

[EJXD2]

I don't know if this falls under trite advice, but I think a big trap novice and casual handicappers fall into is worrying too much about picking a winner.

Not picking winners because ultimately you do have to have some opinion on that, but save the "on top" selection for the tip sheets and focus on how you can make the most money off each wagering opportunity (and sometimes that includes keeping money in your wallet).

I think poker literature does a much better job explaining this. It's not about winning the hand or folding losers. It's about winning as much as possible per pot/session (or, again, avoiding losing situations).

[proximity]

What do you tell him?


before i tell him anything, i have him get wet and sandy and put him through a hard, sleepless weekend of pt.

toward the end i tell him that "this isn't about handicapping horses... my grandma wants to handicap horses..... IT'S ABOUT CHARACTER..."

i then beg for his d.o.r. and if i don't get it i issue him a copy of steve fierro's book, my own fierro based caveman template, both of bmeadow's books (blackjack autumn for the general ups and downs of a daily gambling life) and we start on wednesday gradually increasing the number of races handicapped per day as he gets "in shape" for the daily grind and also accumulating some percentages on contenders overall and in different race configurations.

[Fingal]

I would say that the most important considerations are:

1. Picking good contenders


For me this is # 1 too, it's what I spend the most time on.
There are those that can, & those that can't.

There's an old song from the 1940's-

"You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In-Between"

[MaTH716]

I would say that the most important considerations are:
1. Picking good contenders
Dave Schwartz
And never leave off Rudy or Jacobsen on your mulit race wagers in NY.

[Robert Fischer]

I'd tell him to listen carefully, and to ask questions.

[Robert Goren]

I don't know if this falls under trite advice, but I think a big trap novice and casual handicappers fall into is worrying too much about picking a winner.

Not picking winners because ultimately you do have to have some opinion on that, but save the "on top" selection for the tip sheets and focus on how you can make the most money off each wagering opportunity (and sometimes that includes keeping money in your wallet).

I think poker literature does a much better job explaining this. It's not about winning the hand or folding losers. It's about winning as much as possible per pot/session (or, again, avoiding losing situations).I couldn't disageee more about picking winners. You have to pick winners and pick them often. This waiting for a value bet is a nice theory, but in real life.... almost nobody can pass a lot of races in a row and then when have 8 or 10 value bets lose in a row, you start doing foolish things. Horse racing is not poker . In poker there is pot every few minutes, it easy to fold and wait for a hand, but try folding for 2 straight hours sometime. Bad things start to happen in many ways. In racing, it is 25-30 minutes between races. Sometimes you have to bet a winner even though the value isn't there, just to keep your head in the game. he has got to learn to pick winners before he starts betting exotics or his head will really get messed up. Betting Exotics for value is about step 4 in the learning process. It is not for beginners. You have start by betting 1 track, then step 2 is betting 2 or 3 tracks , if he gets that far.
Back in the days of online poker and poker forums, there was always someone posting about how they could not beat the bottom level because nobody ever folded to their bluffs, so they were going to move up in stakes in search of people who would fold to his bluffs. These posters soon disappeared for obvious reasons. You have got learn to crawl before you can walk and walk before can run. Picking winners at one track is crawling. Betting exotic for value is running really fast.

[DeltaLover]

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100082)

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

[Robert Goren]

Nice post Delta.

I decide after few seconds of real reflection that you should tell him that you can't teach him anything and to go pester someone else. as the old saying goes " those can't do, teach" there a corollary to it I read someplace "those who can do make lousy teachers" In sports, the best players almost aways make lousy coaches.

[MaTH716]

All kidding aside, discipline is one of the most important thing that you need to learn. If you have no feel or don't like a particular race/sequance just pass on it.

Unfortunatley this is something that I still struggle with. But it's more of a factor of me being a couple a times a month player. If I get a free day to play, I want to take advantage of the opportunity and play. Obviously I look at it as a hobby/entertainment. But I have gotten much better since the days of walking into OTB and having my head on a swivel saying ok there's 3 minutes till Aqueduct, ok Now there 2 minutes to Laurel. Just capping on the fly and betting like a maniac.

Discipline should be lesson #1. Races are like buses, you miss one, there's another right behind it.

[Magister Ludi]

1. First, take the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment. If your type dynamics are INTJ, continue. Otherwise, go no further. You probably don't have the personality type to truly succeed in this business.
2. Do not read any books about horse racing or handicapping.
3. Go back to school to get the following minimal education:

one of these:
BSCS - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BSCS - Stanford
BSCS - Carnegie Mellon

and one of these:
MSCF - Carnegie Mellon
MSFE - Columbia
MEFE - Cornell

4. Now you have all of the skills that you need to make money in racetrack betting markets.

[thaskalos]

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100082)

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

There is a pretty good book hidden in there somewhere, my friend.

Maybe we should get together and write it. :ThmbUp:

[DeltaLover]

Why not Daskale?? ;)

[Jeff P]

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100082)

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

Spot on!



-jp

.

[Robert Goren]

Learn computer programing and become very, very good at it. That way he can write his own programs to do what he wants them to do. I wish I was one every day. It would save me a lot of grunt work. Besides that skill is useful in a lot of jobs if the horse racing thing doesn't work out.

[DeltaLover]

Learn computer programing and become very, very good at it. That way he can write his own programs to do what he wants them to do. I wish I was one every day. It would save me a lot of grunt work. Besides that skill is useful in a lot of jobs if the horse racing thing doesn't work out.

Rob, it is never late...

We can start a new thread about how one can learn how to program if there is some interest from our community..

It is quite achivable...

[barn32]

It takes years to beat this game. (If you even can.) You're better off going into real estate.

By the way picking good contenders is an overstatement. The public picks good contenders. Picking the winner out of those contenders is the key.

Again, it takes years to get a feel for this game.

Do you really want to devote a lifetime to a game that is as difficult to beat as anything you can imagine?

If yes, go for it. If you have any doubts at all, there are a lot easier ways to make money.

[turninforhome10]

All this talk of handicapping and MIT degrees and not one mention of how to even look at the horse with physical handicapping :faint:
All the handicapping in the world can't help you if you don't know how to analyze the animal.
No mention of condition books or figuring trainer intent either.
Would spend time with the trainee at the track in the paddock and teach them what to look for in the horse from race to race.
No mention of how to analyze a layoff and try and figure what type of injury happened.
I would teach them how to look at a horse first and foremost.
My mistake was taking all the info and trying to apply it without knowing how to physical handicap the animal.
After being a good legman and actually trained horses so much of what is in books is great and all but no wheels no horses and all the handicapping can not help you. Remember that a trainer is trying to make money whether it is purse, day or claim.

[guckers]

1. First, take the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment. If your type dynamics are INTJ, continue. Otherwise, go no further. You probably don't have the personality type to truly succeed in this business.
2. Do not read any books about horse racing or handicapping.
3. Go back to school to get the following minimal education:

one of these:
BSCS - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BSCS - Stanford
BSCS - Carnegie Mellon

and one of these:
MSCF - Carnegie Mellon
MSFE - Columbia
MEFE - Cornell

4. Now you have all of the skills that you need to make money in racetrack betting markets.

I just lol'd as im an ENTJ. I think ENTJ's can continue. Also, I don't think a formal education is needed, but can be helpful for certain types, just need to have the burning desire and ability to learn.

[Robert Goren]

All this talk of handicapping and MIT degrees and not one mention of how to even look at the horse with physical handicapping :faint:It sure would hurt, if he was in 4H and learned to judge show horses as a kid.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The topic of this thread is very interesting and is related with the other thread started by Thaskalos recently Why do we play this game (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100082)

The answer to the latter dictates the former.

Playing the game strictly for profit is the motivation we should be more interested to give our advice to an aspiring young horse player.

From a high level, one fragmentation of the required skills is the following:

- Psychology

- Handicapping

- Betting execution

A horse player needs to excel in all three of these disciplines if he wants to have a realistic chance to become a long term winner.

The means to get his education are not different from any other area of human activity.

A combination of studying existing approaches, data collection and analysis, applying knowledge from other domains and of course real world experience through a trial and error process are all necessary.

Understanding your psychology, is the cornerstone to become a successful bettor. "Know thyself" is a universally applied maxim, expressing the fact that every improvement always starts within us. We need to be always in emotional control, totally eliminating panic attacks and self condemning always trying to play our best game. Tommy Angelo's book Elements of Poker extensively covers this effect of always playing our A game and although a poker book it is applicable to us, horse players.

Handicapping knowledge is another very important sub domain of horse betting that has to be mastered. It is overestimated as the most important skill, in reality is only one of the vital skills needed and should not monopolize the effort of the horse player, it should rather be balanced with the other necessary skills. There is an extensive literature about handicapping, although most of the writings consist of very shallow introduction. The player should be convinced that creating his own data base where he will be able to run simulations, data mining, create custom variants and figures and test handicapping factors is the best and faster way to gain significant knowledge and experience, this process in the past could have taken decades of laborious effort but today is much easier so we should take advantage of what modern technology has to offer.

Being able to select the type of the bet and how to transform a handicapping opinion to cash is the most important thing in the game. The player needs to do a lot of thinking towards this direction and understand all the possible hidden traps that he can fall into. He should be able to make fast and accurate decisions about how to approach each betting event based in his handicapping opinions and his bankroll size. He should have the heart to risk a significant amount whenever he things he has a potential for a big score. He needs to have the self confidence to not hesitate when his opinion contradicts the public and make big bets which will help him build a large bankroll.

Becoming an expert bettor has a significant difference than becoming expert in any other area. This has to do with the fact that as a bettor you have to be both a 'technical' expert and a businessman simultaneously. As an expert programmer I can easily make a living selling my expertize to a client or employer without having to worry too much about running the business. As a horse player this is not usually the case. It is almost impossible to find a job as a horse bettor, paid a salary and a bonus, just to make bets out of someone else capital. As a bettor you need to be both the technical guy and the business owner.

The best horse player of the world will fail if he does not complement his technical skills with a sound ability as a manager. Even worse not been able to realize this principle will lead him to believe in fallacies. Can you really count how many times you have heard a grand stand bum complaining that although he is the best handicapper and he had this race nailed, he still missed the opportunity because he had just gone broke in the previous race?

A novice needs to understand that horse betting is a form of business and as such it needs capital to start and operate. Of course some time is required until someone reaches the level to treat him self as an expert and attempt to bet seriously out of a big bankroll. This period should be considered the basic training period (training never ends of course, as Thaskalos likes to say we are eternal students of the game) and as any other kind of training, will cost money. As simple as that. It is impossible to learn the game if you do not pay your fees. Betting on paper or with very little money will not get you anywhere.

If during your training period the trainee will never leave his 'comfort zone', most likely will never learn the game. He is going to look like a professional boxer stepping up to the ring having never been in a real fight and never been knocked out before.

Our trainee has to be taught that he has to be careful about how he treats his winnings. The bettor who runs into a big score tends to overestimate his abilities and is become more and more extravagant usually adopting to a very expensive lifestyle which most of the times involves bad habits. All of us who have had some betting success, especially during our youth, found a lot of ways to spend our winnings chasing the big live and eventually when the odds got more balanced we found ourselves broke, thinking of that night that we got to spend $4K to satisfy our new hot girlfriend or that week when we spend $15K going for a vacation in that tropical island.... Similarly he has to focus only to horse betting resisting to the temptation to get involved to other forms of gambling. Dropping the winnings of that big pick four playing poker or blackjack is a sign of immaturity and one of the worst mistakes you can commit.

The trainee has to believe in horse racing as the best form of gambling and has to always be thinking about it. Horse betting is similar to a jealous girlfriend, they both require complete dedication and attention. Horse betting is not an activity we do for fun, it is a life style, it is a long term commitment following a long and lonely path.

Agree with just about everything here.Toughness,stubborness and determination in reaching the goal have to be there.Self psychology,what wins for you and how you play is more important than imposed universal truths.Assessing basic ability of horses.Money management and strategy.Great post Delta.

[turninforhome10]

Watch all the suckers bet the 7 horse in the 10th at GP. You gonna tell me that this horse could not win at Tampa for 12.5 easily. The horse cannot breath and the trainer is looking to lose the horse in a bigger market. " Well he is dropping in class". Come on really.

And he beat 2 horses.

[Dark Target]

I don't know if this falls under trite advice, but I think a big trap novice and casual handicappers fall into is worrying too much about picking a winner.


That right there is the single most important advice anyone should consider.

Horse racing is nothing to do with trying to pick the winner of the race, and everything to do with working out the chances of each runner. Whether you think you are or not, even those that just try and "pick the winner" still give consideration to the likely winners chances in the odds they are willing to take on it, but then completely disregard every other runner in the race.... doesnt make sense :bang:

[turninforhome10]

So in my conclusion. Have the newbie take 10 dollars and only bet show tickets without using a form or any figures and try and figure out what a racehorse should look like.
I had the 6 horse in the last at Gulfstream based on the fact that the Jock stuck and based on form I would say that horse got a little shinny and had to take a break but the works said he was coming through it nicely. 20 days off,blistered and came back to dead heat for the win. 12.60 to win and 14.00 to place.
An MIT education gonna tell you that?

[castaway01]

So in my conclusion. Have the newbie take 10 dollars and only bet show tickets without using a form or any figures and try and figure out what a racehorse should look like.
I had the 6 horse in the last at Gulfstream based on the fact that the Jock stuck and based on form I would say that horse got a little shinny and had to take a break but the works said he was coming through it nicely. 20 days off,blistered and came back to dead heat for the win. 12.60 to win and 14.00 to place.
An MIT education gonna tell you that?

Most people who win in this game don't know how to do physical handicapping....most aren't even at the track.

Sorry, it's 2013, not 1953. Yes, it would be wonderful if I could do that, but I can't. Most of us can't, including the ones who still win.

As most here will tell you, anytime you want to point out the winnners BEFORE the race, you go for it. Otherwise it's just more BS.

[Robert Fischer]

on a true philosophy there is no other umpire than virtue and insight
-Balthasar Gracian

virtue is things like his intelligence, his psychology

insight is things like having an accurate vision and understanding of the inner nature of the game

he has those 2 things, and he wins.

[turninforhome10]

Most people who win in this game don't know how to do physical handicapping....most aren't even at the track.

Sorry, it's 2013, not 1953. Yes, it would be wonderful if I could do that, but I can't. Most of us can't, including the ones who still win.

As most here will tell you, anytime you want to point out the winnners BEFORE the race, you go for it. Otherwise it's just more BS.
Maybe that would be a good contest. I did point out a 7-2 that would not win. Does it always boil down to a redboard with you? Why don't you give us some insights.

[turninforhome10]

If anyone is interested in physical handicapping and the basics you can join me at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/turninforhome10 broadcating live for Delta.
I would happy to answer any questions that I can.
I will start at 6:30 est
Ciao and happy cappin

[Magister Ludi]

So in my conclusion. Have the newbie take 10 dollars and only bet show tickets without using a form or any figures and try and figure out what a racehorse should look like.
I had the 6 horse in the last at Gulfstream based on the fact that the Jock stuck and based on form I would say that horse got a little shinny and had to take a break but the works said he was coming through it nicely. 20 days off,blistered and came back to dead heat for the win. 12.60 to win and 14.00 to place.
An MIT education gonna tell you that?
There's one metric that I use which yields approximately 150 bets each week in the North American racetrack betting market. The ROI over 20 years is .04. With that metric, I don't need to know, nor do I care, if the horses are three or four-legged, if they're running on Berber carpeting or Brazilian Cherry hardwood, whether they're running a 100-yard dash or the Boston Marathon, or if they've been trained by Mike Krzywewski or Twyla Tharp.
A CalTech education is gonna tell you that.

[badcompany]

Given the current state of the game, the oppressive takeouts, the poor quality of horses, the lack of dumb money, and the unfavorable tax status, under no circumstances would I recommend this game as anything other than a pastime.

Sorry for the wet blanket, but that's how I feel.

[turninforhome10]

There's one metric that I use which yields approximately 150 bets each week in the North American racetrack betting market. The ROI over 20 years is .04. With that metric, I don't need to know, nor do I care, if the horses are three or four-legged, if they're running on Berber carpeting or Brazilian Cherry hardwood, whether they're running a 100-yard dash or the Boston Marathon, or if they've been trained by Mike Krzywewski or Twyla Tharp.
A CalTech education is gonna tell you that.
I don't get it . You use a metric to see a horse in the paddock. You have a metric that can analyze sight and turn it into a calculation. You are a genius.

[horses4courses]

I would find it very difficult not to curl into the lotus position, and address my student as "Grasshopper"...... ;)

[Dave Schwartz]

I don't get it . You use a metric to see a horse in the paddock. You have a metric that can analyze sight and turn it into a calculation. You are a genius.

I don't believe he said that.

Perhaps contrary to your belief, not all of us feel it is necessary to see the horses prior to the race.

And for the record, if he is a winning player, he IS a genius.

[turninforhome10]

For those of you that tuned in to the show I gave out the tri in the 6th at Penn National and the winner in the 7th at Penn without the use of a form or any figures. Just physical handicapping. It has nothing to do with being a genius. It has to do with noticing the little details. Off in the left front, problems in behind. You know the little things that make the difference.

[bob60566]

All this talk of handicapping and MIT degrees and not one mention of how to even look at the horse with physical handicapping :faint:
All the handicapping in the world can't help you if you don't know how to analyze the animal.
No mention of condition books or figuring trainer intent either.
Would spend time with the trainee at the track in the paddock and teach them what to look for in the horse from race to race.
No mention of how to analyze a layoff and try and figure what type of injury happened.
I would teach them how to look at a horse first and foremost.
My mistake was taking all the info and trying to apply it without knowing how to physical handicap the animal.
After being a good legman and actually trained horses so much of what is in books is great and all but no wheels no horses and all the handicapping can not help you. Remember that a trainer is trying to make money whether it is purse, day or claim.
:ThmbUp:

[therussmeister]

I just lol'd as im an ENTJ. I think ENTJ's can continue. Also, I don't think a formal education is needed, but can be helpful for certain types, just need to have the burning desire and ability to learn.
And I am an INTP, and I know INTP's can continue. I also don't think a formal education is necessary. I was a silly little music major, and I've been winning since 1988.

I would ask if he really likes to gamble, and if he said yes, I would tell him to go find someone else, I can't help him.

[barn32]

For those of you that tuned in to the show I gave out the tri in the 6th at Penn National and the winner in the 7th at Penn without the use of a form or any figures. Just physical handicapping. How many losers did you give out?

[Magister Ludi]

And I am an INTP, and I know INTP's can continue. I also don't think a formal education is necessary. I was a silly little music major, and I've been winning since 1988.

I would ask if he really likes to gamble, and if he said yes, I would tell him to go find someone else, I can't help him.

I can't believe that I forgot to add that to my list. I've used almost those exact words more than once. Thank you very much for adding that.

[turninforhome10]

How many losers did you give out?
I went 2 for 3 at Penn. And 2 for 4 at Delta.
All I am trying to say here is that in a game where we all seeking a little edge the physical part and the condition book part are to me the last frontiers to getting more of an ROI. I am not trying to demean anyone. You guys were talking about what to teach a newbie. I learned how to get my edge by starting as a stall cleaner and working my up to Asst. Trainer and learned the game from the inside. I was a huge loosing player using all the different methods and books. It was not until I learned to think like a horseman that I started to really look at PP's and understand what was really going on with the horse.
If I could teach that to a newbie they would be way ahead.

[turninforhome10]

I don't believe he said that.

Perhaps contrary to your belief, not all of us feel it is necessary to see the horses prior to the race.

And for the record, if he is a winning player, he IS a genius.
Maybe I misunderstood. The guy said he had metric for that. What was he referring to?

[banacek]

Perhaps contrary to your belief, not all of us feel it is necessary to see the horses prior to the race.



Best guy I ever saw pick a winner in the paddock:

Don Rickles: How do you pick those winners?
Jed Clampbett: Well it's easy. I just pick out the horse that looks like it can outrun the others.

Mrs. Rickles: How much have you won?
Jed Clampett: Nothing.
Mrs. Rickles: But you've had the winner in every race!
Jed Clampett: Yes, Ma'am, but I don't bet.
Mrs. Rickles: Why not?
Jed Clampett: Well, I don't need the money and knowing who is going to win kind of takes the fun out of it.

Start it at about 14 minutes 20 seconds. (I tried to do that but it didn't work)

wWBQcbkjT_s#t=14m22s

[dav4463]

Learn as much as you can about betting first. Learn how to structure bets to maximize winning potential. Then learn to handicap.

[turninforhome10]

1. First, take the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment. If your type dynamics are INTJ, continue. Otherwise, go no further. You probably don't have the personality type to truly succeed in this business.
2. Do not read any books about horse racing or handicapping.
3. Go back to school to get the following minimal education:

one of these:
BSCS - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BSCS - Stanford
BSCS - Carnegie Mellon

and one of these:
MSCF - Carnegie Mellon
MSFE - Columbia
MEFE - Cornell

4. Now you have all of the skills that you need to make money in racetrack betting markets.


The test is free at the following website
http://www.humanmetrics.com/cgi-win/JTypes1.htm

I took the test the test and was amazed at how well it nailed me. And the P instead of the J is truly my weakest spot and I would agree with your statement. I guess that is why I gravitated towards training and owning rather than playing. I am a scientist by trade and also have degrees in teaching and philosophy. But the second guessing has always been my weakspot. Thanks for the post. I would suggest it for anyone.

[mrhorseplayer]

So in my conclusion. Have the newbie take 10 dollars and only bet show tickets without using a form or any figures and try and figure out what a racehorse should look like.
I had the 6 horse in the last at Gulfstream based on the fact that the Jock stuck and based on form I would say that horse got a little shinny and had to take a break but the works said he was coming through it nicely. 20 days off,blistered and came back to dead heat for the win. 12.60 to win and 14.00 to place.
An MIT education gonna tell you that?


I can read that off the form no need to see the horse for me

[MightBeSosa]

$100.00
$83.00
$68.89
$57.18
$47.46
$39.39
$32.69
$27.14
$22.52

Show him what happens to $100 after 9 races at a 17% vig.

See if he still has interest.

[raybo]

Give him about 2 years worth of results charts, for the tracks he is interested in playing. Tell him to study them thoroughly before ever doing any handicapping. Make sure he understands that the odds only tell him what the horses will pay, if they win, not their actual chances of winning.

Then help him develop patience, discipline, and consistency, in both his handicapping and wagering. If he cannot develop all 3 of those traits, tell him to find another endeavor.

Pound into him the need for keeping thorough records.

Stress current form and "true" class (pace determines speed).

That's my 2 cents worth!

[raybo]

I can't believe that I forgot to add that to my list. I've used almost those exact words more than once. Thank you very much for adding that.

Ditto!! If someone really likes to gamble, then chances are he's going to end up just another gambler. Yeah, I wouldn't be interested in helping such a person.

[raybo]

I don't believe he said that.

Perhaps contrary to your belief, not all of us feel it is necessary to see the horses prior to the race.

And for the record, if he is a winning player, he IS a genius.

Totally agree. I've never known a physicality 'capper who was worth a damn on the bottom line. Trainers know their animals better than anyone, and yet they are some of the worst handicappers alive.

[raybo]

1. First, take the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment. If your type dynamics are INTJ, continue. Otherwise, go no further. You probably don't have the personality type to truly succeed in this business.
2. Do not read any books about horse racing or handicapping.
3. Go back to school to get the following minimal education:

one of these:
BSCS - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BSCS - Stanford
BSCS - Carnegie Mellon

and one of these:
MSCF - Carnegie Mellon
MSFE - Columbia
MEFE - Cornell

4. Now you have all of the skills that you need to make money in racetrack betting markets.

Really? I guess I better quit. Is that really your advice? Or are you just beating your own drum?

[turninforhome10]

Totally agree. I've never known a physicality 'capper who was worth a damn on the bottom line. Trainers know their animals better than anyone, and yet they are some of the worst handicappers alive.
So then what you are saying is that the newbie need not bother with any of that "physical nonsense" because your sheets say they are a contender?

[baconswitchfarm]

People are saying it would be hard to win without a program just by looking at the horses. There would be no sale agents or vets because they would all be pro bettors.

[SmarterSig]

If he/she does not have the right mind set for the game then you will have wasted yours and his time. It may therefore be wise to supply him with un explained bets for a while and see if he keeps coming back, especially during a poor period. If he does then you can consider the next stage.

[shouldacoulda]

I would ask him the following questions in return. How long have you been playing? What have you read on the subject? What do you expect to achieve? How much time and money are they willing to invest as "tuition". Then I would watch him/her handicap a few races to see what needs to be learned/unlearned.

Too many people get misinformation. They look to the "get rich quick" "systems" rather than truly learn about the game and have unrealistic expectations. These "players" then get discouraged and lose their a$$ in the process. The longer a person uses and relies on the wrong information the harder it is to unlearn most of the time.

I once overheard a person at OTB explain a "system" just using the printed entry sheet. I had a hard time trying not to laugh as this patron usually left cursing and broke. If you're not willing or able to invest in a DRF, you have no business wagering money.

I would most likely advise this person to read the following; The Handicappers Condition Book by James Quinn, Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane, Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohammer and get the DVD The Body Language of a Racehorse. I would of course direct him to this forum.

After a good foundation of handicapping skills then you can really begin to learn the game and put theory to practice.

[shouldacoulda]

Watch all the suckers bet the 7 horse in the 10th at GP. You gonna tell me that this horse could not win at Tampa for 12.5 easily. The horse cannot breath and the trainer is looking to lose the horse in a bigger market. " Well he is dropping in class". Come on really.

And he beat 2 horses.

At least he wasn't last :lol:

There was another OTB patron that always played a gray horse when he saw on entered. Last year they had a race in Aqueduct or Belmont of all grays. He must have went insane.

[raybo]

So then what you are saying is that the newbie need not bother with any of that "physical nonsense" because your sheets say they are a contender?

That's one of the things I'm saying, yes. What I haven't said is that horses can, and often do, look like crap, but still win. Conformation is bad and yet they still win. Washed out, when they have never been washed out before, and yet they win. I could go on and on.

[Robert Goren]

That's one of the things I'm saying, yes. What I haven't said is that horses can, and often do, look like crap, but still win. Conformation is bad and yet they still win. Washed out, when they have never been washed out before, and yet they win. I could go on and on.And have seen horses who have run 5 bottom md claimer and beat a total of 2 or 3 horses in the five race and ran last in its last race win its 6 race. It happens, but I am not go bet on it happening again. anymore than I am going to bet on a washed out horse just because I seen a few win. If you bet washed out horses no matter how good they look on paper, your ROI is going to take a beating. IMO

[raybo]

And have seen horses who have run 5 bottom md claimer and beat a total of 2 or 3 horses in the five race and ran last in its last race win its 6 race. It happens, but I am not go bet on it happening again. anymore than I am going to bet on a washed out horse just because I seen a few win. If you bet washed out horses no matter how good they look on paper, your ROI is going to take a beating. IMO

You could say the same thing about any single factor, couldn't you?

[Robert Fischer]

nothing wrong with physicality handicapping.


In order to get anything valuable from something like physicality handicapping, the user has to be highly skilled, and have an accurate understanding of certain cause-and-effect relationships.

With long-term data base abstractions, the focus is on the effect, without consideration of the cause outside of the abstraction.

Magister Ludi mentioned he had a long-term play where he was fine without any consideration of physicality. Basically he had found an "effect" that was profitable long-term.




Even in physicality itself there are different types information.

for example -

a. Horse has front wraps - this info could be used by data base guys.

b. Horse has sickly appearance - this info would be unlikely to be used by data base guys.


Both of these types physicality information could be valuable.

[castaway01]

Maybe that would be a good contest. I did point out a 7-2 that would not win. Does it always boil down to a redboard with you? Why don't you give us some insights.

Redboard of what? I don't know what I redboarded. Maybe you should figure out who you are replying to before you reply.

We were talking about what would be good to teach someone learning handicapping in 2013. I don't think physical handicapping would make sense because while it's great to know, 99 percent of us can't sit at a racetrack every day and only handicap the live races based on how the horses look.

I think that following the hot trainer is probably the best way to make money in 2013, but I don't make a living at it and I'm not rolling in cash. I think it's slowly becoming overplayed too. So, I can't give that as advice. I don't know what is the best advice to tell a kid starting out, but I know telling a kid who knows nothing about horses to sit in the paddock and learn to evaluate horses in the 9 live races a day is not wise advice. If the new player has a million-dollar insurance settlement and can afford to lose 20K a year while claiming to be a pro (I played with that guy at Philly Park for a decade), then go for it. Otherwise, no.

[Robert Goren]

You could say the same thing about any single factor, couldn't you? At least with most negative factors anyway.

[Robert Goren]

nothing wrong with physicality handicapping.


In order to get anything valuable from something like physicality handicapping, the user has to be highly skilled, and have an accurate understanding of certain cause-and-effect relationships.

With long-term data base abstractions, the focus is on the effect, without consideration of the cause outside of the abstraction.

Magister Ludi mentioned he had a long-term play where he was fine without any consideration of physicality. Basically he had found an "effect" that was profitable long-term.




Even in physicality itself there are different types information.

for example -

a. Horse has front wraps - this info could be used by data base guys.

b. Horse has sickly appearance - this info would be unlikely to be used by data base guys.


Both of these types physicality information could be valuable.Front wraps can be faked and frequently are. A washed out horse is lot harder to fake.
Ludi could have and probably does something that shows a profit without looking at the horse he bets, but his ROI would be better if he were able to check out his horse before he bets. As we know in this day and age of Similcasting and ADWs that is not always possible. You give something by not being at the track, but gain access to more races. It a trade off that you have to adjust for by being more selective in the horses you bet.

[garyscpa]

If anyone is interested in physical handicapping and the basics you can join me at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/turninforhome10 broadcating live for Delta.
I would happy to answer any questions that I can.
I will start at 6:30 est
Ciao and happy cappin

I watched this and thought he did a very good job. I'm not that good at physicality handicapping and it was a good opportunity to learn.

I hope turninforhome10 alerts us to the next time he's going to do a ustream.

[shouldacoulda]

There's one metric that I use which yields approximately 150 bets each week in the North American racetrack betting market. The ROI over 20 years is .04. With that metric, I don't need to know, nor do I care, if the horses are three or four-legged, if they're running on Berber carpeting or Brazilian Cherry hardwood, whether they're running a 100-yard dash or the Boston Marathon, or if they've been trained by Mike Krzywewski or Twyla Tharp.
A CalTech education is gonna tell you that.

Do they really race 3 legged horses? :lol:

All kidding aside you can pick up a lot from a post parade even on TV. Some are better than others and day or night has a lot to do with it and I will readily admit it's not even close to being at the track. Some tracks do broadcast in high definition but not as many as I would like. When I'm at the track I'm one of those guys that runs from the paddock to the grandstand to see the post parade before putting in a bet. It's not just how the horse looks but how he acts and especially how he acts when he steps onto the track.

With all due respect, Turningforhome has a valid point. I picked a $200 dollar winner at Will Rogers Downs over a year ago just from the post parade. I had just brought up the video stream and did not have any PP's downloaded yet. Unfortunately I only played it for show which did pay 25.40 I don't care who believes me because I know it to be true. The horses physical condition and behavior can spot a long shot as well as a solid favorite and should be part of the handicapping process in my opinion whenever possible. If you don't feel the same way that's up to you. Far be it for me to say if you are right or wrong but my experience guides me to believe in it's value. Also unfortunately this doesn't happen everyday or even every week but it does happen when you know what to look for. Just sayin. And yes I am not a big bettor and was just pickin at it this day. I didn't even intend to play, just watch but I couldn't pass on a 99 to 1 shot that was screaming "here I am".

[turninforhome10]

Redboard of what? I don't know what I redboarded. Maybe you should figure out who you are replying to before you reply.

We were talking about what would be good to teach someone learning handicapping in 2013. I don't think physical handicapping would make sense because while it's great to know, 99 percent of us can't sit at a racetrack every day and only handicap the live races based on how the horses look.

I think that following the hot trainer is probably the best way to make money in 2013, but I don't make a living at it and I'm not rolling in cash. I think it's slowly becoming overplayed too. So, I can't give that as advice. I don't know what is the best advice to tell a kid starting out, but I know telling a kid who knows nothing about horses to sit in the paddock and learn to evaluate horses in the 9 live races a day is not wise advice. If the new player has a million-dollar insurance settlement and can afford to lose 20K a year while claiming to be a pro (I played with that guy at Philly Park for a decade), then go for it. Otherwise, no.


I guess when you have never been to the point where feeding your family depends on the concept of whether betting or owning that your bloodstock is gonna turn you coin. Right now this is what I do for living.
I bet you would really love to know who is crippled tomorrow at Parx.
The horse is likely to go off as the post time time favorite.
After clocking for week I know.
And you are likely to play the horse.
And I will capitalize and make a nice score since you can not see a right ankle.
Guess which one?

[Robert Goren]

There was trainer on the Nebraska circuit back when, If you saw him head to the windows, his horse was dead. If he never even looked the way of the windows, watch out. It took a few torn up tickets to figure this out. He was a slick bastard.

[thaskalos]

I guess when you have never been to the point where feeding your family depends on the concept of whether betting or owning that your bloodstock is gonna turn you coin. Right now this is what I do for living.
I bet you would really love to know who is crippled tomorrow at Parx.
The horse is likely to go off as the post time time favorite.
After clocking for week I know.
And you are likely to play the horse.
And I will capitalize and make a nice score since you can not see a right ankle.
Guess which one?
Are you sure that you "will capitalize and make a nice score"? :)

[turninforhome10]

Are you questioning me as a philosophical mind, that might think I am pulling a bluff in order to gain attention?

[thaskalos]

Are you questioning me as a philosophical mind, that might think I am pulling a bluff in order to gain attention?
No.

I am just pointing out that eliminating the favorite from consideration does not guarantee that you will profit in the race.

[turninforhome10]

I formally invite anyone that wants to meet me in the paddock at Parx tomorrow I will point the horse out.

[castaway01]

I formally invite anyone that wants to meet me in the paddock at Parx tomorrow I will point the horse out.

You saying I should both leave my family and miss football so you might point out a 5-2 shot that might not win, that's not economical to me. As a semi-professional who doesn't like to waste time, this sounds foolish. You go on hitting those non-favorites though. Maybe you can pry someone away from the Parx slots who will go heads up with you.

[castaway01]

Do they really race 3 legged horses? :lol:

All kidding aside you can pick up a lot from a post parade even on TV. Some are better than others and day or night has a lot to do with it and I will readily admit it's not even close to being at the track. Some tracks do broadcast in high definition but not as many as I would like. When I'm at the track I'm one of those guys that runs from the paddock to the grandstand to see the post parade before putting in a bet. It's not just how the horse looks but how he acts and especially how he acts when he steps onto the track.

With all due respect, Turningforhome has a valid point. I picked a $200 dollar winner at Will Rogers Downs over a year ago just from the post parade. I had just brought up the video stream and did not have any PP's downloaded yet. Unfortunately I only played it for show which did pay 25.40 I don't care who believes me because I know it to be true. The horses physical condition and behavior can spot a long shot as well as a solid favorite and should be part of the handicapping process in my opinion whenever possible. If you don't feel the same way that's up to you. Far be it for me to say if you are right or wrong but my experience guides me to believe in it's value. Also unfortunately this doesn't happen everyday or even every week but it does happen when you know what to look for. Just sayin. And yes I am not a big bettor and was just pickin at it this day. I didn't even intend to play, just watch but I couldn't pass on a 99 to 1 shot that was screaming "here I am".

Okay, well that's a wonderful skill. The next time that happens five years from now, you let us know. The point was what to teach a promising young handicapper. Teaching that person "Gee, every seven years a 99-1 shot will look good and you should jump on it" is foolish. It's like telling someone to go work at McDonald's but to only accept $75 an hour.

Ain't happening.

[castaway01]

I guess when you have never been to the point where feeding your family depends on the concept of whether betting or owning that your bloodstock is gonna turn you coin. Right now this is what I do for living.
I bet you would really love to know who is crippled tomorrow at Parx.
The horse is likely to go off as the post time time favorite.
After clocking for week I know.
And you are likely to play the horse.
And I will capitalize and make a nice score since you can not see a right ankle.
Guess which one?

I'll just say I think you're full of it and I'd love to book your bets.

I spent 12 years at Parx in and out of the paddock. Other than getting a case or two of the flu, I didn't gain anything. I certainly didn't see anyone getting rich. Well, maybe Scott Lake for a few years. John McCaslin between suspensions and bannings. There were a few people who knew what they were doing too. However, they weren't the gamblers.

What this has to do with teaching a young handicapper I don't know. I hung out with the Parx crew. There were no geniuses there, sorry. You're not one either. I've seen your posts. You have no clue.

[tophatmert]

I formally invite anyone that wants to meet me in the paddock at Parx tomorrow I will point the horse out.

I'll be there ,I'm a sucker for high takeout and a guy who likes to tell me who I'm going to bet. I'll have a flower in my hair.Can't wait.

[shouldacoulda]

Okay, well that's a wonderful skill. The next time that happens five years from now, you let us know. The point was what to teach a promising young handicapper. Teaching that person "Gee, every seven years a 99-1 shot will look good and you should jump on it" is foolish. It's like telling someone to go work at McDonald's but to only accept $75 an hour.

Ain't happening.
I think you're missing the point. I originally said it should be a part of the handicapping process. I posted the image so as not to be accused of "red boarding". Some people are never happy I guess.

[castaway01]

I think you're missing the point. I said it should be a part of the handicapping process. I posted the image so as not to be accused of "red boarding". Some people are never happy I guess.

I'm not doubting you and didn't accuse you of "redboarding" (is there some group meeting here where every gets redboarded? I don't get it---perhaps a reading comprehension class is in order for some of you). It's just a freak occurence that happens every seven years, not what you do to make a living. If you feel otherwise, best of luck and I look forward to your money in the pools.

[castaway01]

I'll be there ,I'm a sucker for high takeout and a guy who likes to tell me who I'm going to bet. I'll have a flower in my hair.Can't wait.

Now wait, do you usually wear a low-cut black dress? If so, I met you at the paddock in 1997 and we dated in 1998.

If you're a guy, then forget I posted.

[Tom]

I guess when you have never been to the point where feeding your family depends on the concept of whether betting or owning that your bloodstock is gonna turn you coin. Right now this is what I do for living.

That is the problem - you do ti for a living. How many "newbies" are going to have the access to physicality handicapping as you do? Right off the bat, you are limiting him to only one track and only being their in person.
And he needs to know what the horse looked like the last few time he raced as well. Remember the big to do during the BC or TC, I forget, one of the TV color people commented on how bad a horse looked - who then won, and always looked that way?

You are in the game in a different capacity than the average newbie - who is there for en entirely different reason than you are. I have been playing since 1964, and I know that physicality is the one are I will never be good at will never master - and I have tried for a long time, when Bonnie Ledbetter's book first came out and I was at the track all the time.

I admire you the ability to look at a horse and see something constructive, but I think you need to know you are in the minority - most of us slugs have trouble telling a race horse from an Arabian! (I could tell you a funny story about Arabians at Delaware Park once....and a :blush: me after commenting out loud about the 3rd race as they entered the paddock! :D)

[overthehill]

Why is he interested in persueing this? does he intend to make a living at it? or is he looking for a hobby that he might be able to make a few dollars with?

How much self-discipline does he have? can he pass races. bet only when the odds are in his favor? survive inevitable losing streaks? be willing to bet, when no one else likes his horse and there is a an odds on horse in the race?

[raybo]

Why is he interested in persueing this? does he intend to make a living at it? or is he looking for a hobby that he might be able to make a few dollars with?

How much self-discipline does he have? can he pass races. bet only when the odds are in his favor? survive inevitable losing streaks? be willing to bet, when no one else likes his horse and there is a an odds on horse in the race?

Good post and some questions I would ask before agreeing to personally mentor anyone. The answers to those questions also may determine your mentoring approach, should you decide to be a mentor.

[Capper Al]

Whatever method one will be mentored, there is no easy way. The newbie is going to have work a lot.

[turninforhome10]

All sidetracking of this thread aside the bottom line for me is this.
While being a young handicapper and learning the game, I knew this is what I liked to do. In the beginning I lost a lot (relative speaking in the early 90' for a college kid paying my college rather than using loans), it was the action bets and playing every race that killed me. I figured that I only have 6 hrs to play and better score something. This is one of the newbies first flaws. Playing for the day rather than the score. One must realize that the are approx 75-150 races each day for most of the year. This adds up to lets a lot of races each year to play. One afternoon while playing Sportsman'spark on a cold winter day late in the season, it dawned on me. The card was full of cheap N1Y and even cheaper maidens. All horses that have already proven unreliable, but yet I was pumping money down trying to find a longshot or put some pattern together in really what boils down to fool's folly. The awakening: It is about the horse. Making money with the horse.
Whether it be as an owner, trainer or handicapper having the best stock and getting them in a race that favors them is the goal. Owners want to make money by racing their animals and taking purses or getting them claimed, trainers want to make money either by taking day money, getting the purse or getting the horse claimed. The handicapper wants to make money by picking the right horse and getting value on their wager. All these ideas very seldom meet to achieve a positive outcome for all those involved.
I decided to take a break and read everything I could, pour over old records and forms and learn everything I could before ever sinking another dime. I waited until the third week of the Oaklawn meet and spent each day looking for one or two superior animals and slowly built a portfolio of horses that I saw as either exceptional looking animals, respected pedigrees, or a top racing performance. Horses that could be relied upon to come to the fight ready to rumble. These types of horses, IMHO are rare. Maybe 5% of the population are really top athletes much the same as their human counterparts. Whether it be sports betting or horse and dog racing, finding a situation where we are getting the best value on a top athlete that is in an event that favors them for a win is where the best money can be made.
This is no easy task and requires a lot of time and patience.
That summer, I followed my horses and over time started to not only show a profit but I became a fan of the sport. The horses that I was following became almost like friends. I could rely on them to perform when the money was down. Working in the test barn the next year, I was unable to bet, but had a chance to meet a lot of the very same animals. One horse especially was an old gelding named Railroad Red. A very tough old timey horse that had gameness and courage each time he went to post. It was a very rewarding experience.
The big reason I am all about physical handicapping is having been an Asst trainer, a farm owner, a breeder, an owner, and a handicapper, is finding those exceptional animals that one can trust to be game and have the ability and the heart to perform when the money is down.
I would teach the Newbie, to be able to find these types of animals and build a portfolio. Next, I would teach them to how to determine when their was value in the bet. Not from mathematics, but more from the entry box. One must be able to know when the public is betting the wrong factor that will be important for the outcome. A highly regarded trainer, a high priced sale horse, a horse that earned a high figure that was the result of bias or competing against very inferior animals. When we as handicappers can get a overlay on a superior animal who is being overlooked because of the above factors, these are IMHO the best bets, not only for the capper but for all those involved with the animal. These bets are very illusive,but having the ability to find these bets requires the ability to spot these animals. It makes no difference whether we are talking football, boxing or the stock market, finding value in superiority is the bottom line. Knowing how to find these opportunities and exploit them is the key to making money. As an owner, I never claimed a horse that did not win at least one or two races with. Why, because I knew what to look for in the horse. As an Asst trainer, I never suggested a horse for claiming unless I found that special something in the heart of the animal. We never claimed a horse that we did not win a race with. Maybe I am very lucky and it was a fluke. I'd like it think it had more to do with knowing how to find a horse that was one of 10% that actually make money.
My owner profile- 2009 was a horse that I actually raised and broke myself and after 3 yrs she did not even remotely like the idea of racing, but it was quest I had to finish in order to say I have truly done it all
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=O&eID=1418809
As an ASST trainer you can look at the years of 2002 , 2003 for the years that I was on track as an apprentice. 2004 and 2005 were the years that the progeny that I bred as a breeding consultant were on the track.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=192360
Once our Newbie can spot the superior animal by both knowing what the animal should look like and then incorporating race replays to know how the animal performs, then comes the time to look at PP's and start to unlock the secrets of the form. Reading a form is best learned by watching races and understanding how the race unfolded to see how the numbered was earned.
It also allows the capper to find things that the chart caller missed. Seeing is believing. Reading the form and getting the proper information from what is read is the hardest thing to learn. Taking the information in print and manipulating the information to come up with something meaningful is the major stumbling block for most beginners. What the chart is telling you and what the animal is really telling you are two different things. With this manipulation of information to come up with methods to unlock profitable plays is where the new player often becomes overwhelmed. I would bet that most of us on this forum have been through more than one piece of software or have changed back and forth between the DRF and Bris, always looking for a way to present the info in a way that is meaningful. Most new players will have trouble figuring out with parameter is most important in which situation.
This is why our new player must know their horses. If the newbie takes the time to build their portfolio then they also have a measuring stick to start to understand class. If while watching their good horse run, often they will find other horses that might be a good play later as today's race becomes a key race later.
After watching, and keeping notes for a few months, the newbie will be amazed that they know have a pretty solid background in the horses that are running on the circuit they are following. With this understanding of the circuit, the newbie will have a big advantage over those weekend warriors who are plunking down their bets based on having 8 hrs to play and often betting on the form horses, or the hot trainer, or any other endless reason that cause underlays. Our newbie has an advantage because they have their horse and can handicap the race based on knowing they already have a horse to rely on. Now they can check the before the race by comparing how he looked last even if only briefly and without the need to actually be in the paddock.
" A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet. A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet. A good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet".
“Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil,” by Edward W. Cole (1908).
Since I have been so long winded here, I will sum it up with this
Being able to find a superior athlete, and knowing how to find factors to find value, then knowing when the event favors a positive outcome to exploit, it is only then can a handicapper make a profit.
This is why I am big on the physical part. I trust the horses more than the poeple involved with them.
Ciao
Kirk

[raybo]

Whatever method one will be mentored, there is no easy way. The newbie is going to have work a lot.

That's very true, unless of course, the mentor trains the player in the use of a tool/program that does most of the work for them. In that case, most of the "work" the player must do relates to developing necessary character traits: patience, discipline, consistency, control of emotions, etc..

[turninforhome10]

You saying I should both leave my family and miss football so you might point out a 5-2 shot that might not win, that's not economical to me. As a semi-professional who doesn't like to waste time, this sounds foolish. You go on hitting those non-favorites though. Maybe you can pry someone away from the Parx slots who will go heads up with you.
How about a 4-5 shot that runs out of the exacta and being able to capitalize on a horse that was eased and wins at 9-1 keying a 262 exacta

Parx Racing - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $20.20 $11.00 $4.40
6 . $14.40 $4.80
7 . . $2.10
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 2/6 $242.80
$2.00 Trifecta 2/6/7 $754.40

While I played the race modestly it is still a profit
Status Track R# Wager Runner(s) Conditions Bet Amt Return
COMPLETED: 9c66d-cf02f PRX #1 $20 PS 2 none $ 40.00 $150.40 + $ 110.40

Castaway, who should I call to book my wagers? And just think you could have already been on your way home to watch football.
For all those wondering if I am a crazy nut, I welcome you to watch the replay of the race. That is what a right ankle problem looks like.

[turninforhome10]

If you look at the winner of the 2nd race at Parx, Eternal Flight, this is an example of a horse that would be in my newbies portfolio. Has not missed one paycheck (being paid a purse back to 5th) in 10 starts this year he has only missed the board twice both an off track where Jose Flores, who when he gets a bond with a horse like these 2 have, would have made sure he was safe. Jose is really nice guy and I respect him as a horseman. The horse is honest and tries every time as evidenced by being hooked at the 1/16 th pole and digging back gamely. If you know you have an honest horse like this to measure, you also now have the top 5 horses from the race to watch next out. I will then instruct the Newbie how to look at the condition and take a notes regarding the next 10k starter going long. This might be either found by the book or look on the overnights in the following week. You might expect to see some familiar faces. :)

[so.cal.fan]

Good post turninforhome.
:)

As a long time (51 years) horseplayer and former horse owner, I agree.

[mountainman]

To my experience, nobody dives in and asks for the full monty, it's just not how players learn the game. True newbies have no conception of racing's scope and complexity, and those slightly more advanced either overestimate their knowledge or realize one mentor can't cover their needs.

In actuality, devout players are born of a keen-perhaps even genetic-curiosity that unfolds little by little. I mean, does a precocious toddler ask a parent to convey everything that parent knows about the world? No. It explores the shiny new world piece by piece and absorbs much through observation and doing.

Back in my teens and 20's, i was lucky enough to make the aquaintance of some exceptional handicappers. Sure, i asked questions and learned a lot, but most of them specialized in just one or two aspects of handicapping, and were, in truth, were too prickly and egotistical to fit well in the role of mentor. So i kissed their rings a little-until my knowledge surpassed theirs-and moved on. To model myself after or emulate any one of those players never crossed my mind. I suspect modern day newbies with real interest in handicapping would feel the same. There is just too much ego involved in handicapping-on BOTH the student and teacher's part- to foster extensive one-on-one mentoring.

Of course there are exceptions, and that's just my perspective on a good thread.

[raybo]

To my experience, nobody dives in and asks for the full monty, it's just not how players learn the game. True newbies have no conception of racing's scope and complexity, and those slightly more advanced either overestimate their knowledge or realize one mentor can't cover their needs.

In actuality, devout players are born of a keen-perhaps even genetic-curiosity that unfolds little by little. I mean, does a precocious toddler ask a parent to convey everything that parent knows about the world? No. It explores the shiny new world piece by piece and absorbs much through observation and doing.

Back in my teens and 20's, i was lucky enough to make the aquaintance of some exceptional handicappers. Sure, i asked questions and learned a lot, but most of them specialized in just one or two aspects of handicapping, and were, in truth, were too prickly and egotistical to fit well in the role of mentor. So i kissed their rings a little-until my knowledge surpassed theirs-and moved on. To model myself after or emulate any one of those players never crossed my mind. I suspect modern day newbies with real interest in handicapping would feel the same. There is just too much ego involved in handicapping-on BOTH the student and teacher's part- to foster extensive one-on-one mentoring.

Of course there are exceptions, and that's just my perspective on a good thread.

I agree, thus the very basic stuff I mentioned in my post regarding mentoring.

It takes a special type person to be a good mentor. For one, they must be able to transport themselves back to the beginnings of their racing career, in order to communicate effectively with the new player. Just as in any other sport/game, fundamentals must be mastered before moving on to a more advanced level.

I've made the comparison before of some of the posters here and other places talking "over your head", comparing that to trying to talk to an engineer. Most just can't come down to your knowledge level well enough to enable learning at the basic level. Theorists are a dime a dozen, but true teachers are rare.

[myhorse1]

He wants you to take him by the hand, and guide him through the early, highly impressionable stage of a horseplayer's education.

What do you tell him?

NO.

Somewhere in the readings of your posts you stated that you are a single father and sole support of your child or children and that your only income is from the horses.

you come across as an extremely bright and helpful person--but this is a parimutual game and whatever edge you give away will NOT COME BACK and unless your financial situation at this time is such that you could take a substantial and permanent hit on your handicapping without it being a problem
I don't think mentoring is for you.

I think the best you can offer is give him the books you found most helpful--
and have him come on this board and ask questions.

[Tom]

Buy him a "wife-beater" and a Zenyatta video, let nature take it's course.

[raybo]

NO.

Somewhere in the readings of your posts you stated that you are a single father and sole support of your child or children and that your only income is from the horses.

you come across as an extremely bright and helpful person--but this is a parimutual game and whatever edge you give away will NOT COME BACK and unless your financial situation at this time is such that you could take a substantial and permanent hit on your handicapping without it being a problem
I don't think mentoring is for you.

I think the best you can offer is give him the books you found most helpful--
and have him come on this board and ask questions.

You can teach someone everything he/she knows, without teaching him everything you know. We're talking about early fundamental knowledge, not advanced play.

[therussmeister]

You can teach someone everything he/she knows, without teaching him everything you know. We're talking about early fundamental knowledge, not advanced play.
I believe a great teacher helps the student find his way, and does not help the student find the teacher's way.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Why not just tell him or her to put their head between their legs and kiss their ass goodbye?

That's what I've deduced from this should be innocent conversation.

This game is awesome.

This game is exciting to watch that outmatches anything via spectacle.

Preach genius to me.I will follow every thought.

Do it passionless and you will be suspect for eternity...

[fmolf]

I would tell him to take copious notes....sit out and watch a lot of races where no edge is found and to use a fixed % of bankroll betting system so your bets are larger when winning and smaller when losing......I'd also tell him that discipline is the key to implementing your methodology.
Then if he were willing after a couple of months i would offer to help him analyze his notes to discover what his sttrengths and weaknesses are and above all i would tell him to go slow.theres another race in 5 mins ...and more tomorrow and the day after that etc...etc...

[castaway01]

How about a 4-5 shot that runs out of the exacta and being able to capitalize on a horse that was eased and wins at 9-1 keying a 262 exacta

Parx Racing - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $20.20 $11.00 $4.40
6 . $14.40 $4.80
7 . . $2.10
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 2/6 $242.80
$2.00 Trifecta 2/6/7 $754.40

While I played the race modestly it is still a profit
Status Track R# Wager Runner(s) Conditions Bet Amt Return
COMPLETED: 9c66d-cf02f PRX #1 $20 PS 2 none $ 40.00 $150.40 + $ 110.40

Castaway, who should I call to book my wagers? And just think you could have already been on your way home to watch football.
For all those wondering if I am a crazy nut, I welcome you to watch the replay of the race. That is what a right ankle problem looks like.

Again, that's all wonderful but has nothing to do with the thread. Also, while you were mad about "redboarding", you posted this before the race (yet again), if you posted it after the race it might mean something. Why? Because every human being on earth could have posted after the race that the horse who lost lost. I'm sorry that's confusing to you, but redboarding means nothing unless there's a lesson with it, not your vague insults and lack of knowledge.

[castaway01]

Good post turninforhome.
:)

As a long time (51 years) horseplayer and former horse owner, I agree.

I know you're a nice person, but again, READING WHAT THE THREAD IS ABOUT, how can you say you agree?

[turninforhome10]

Why not just tell him or her to put their head between their legs and kiss their ass goodbye?

That's what I've deduced from this should be innocent conversation.

This game is awesome.

This game is exciting to watch that outmatches anything via spectacle.

Preach genius to me.I will follow every thought.

Do it passionless and you will be suspect for eternity...
"Best game played outdoors with your clothes on, if you don't weaken".
a quote from T-Red Bernis my mentor http://store.drf.com/acb/stores/1/PDF/cajun7.pdf

[turninforhome10]

Again, that's all wonderful but has nothing to do with the thread. Also, while you were mad about "redboarding", you posted this before the race (yet again), if you posted it after the race it might mean something. Why? Because every human being on earth could have posted after the race that the horse who lost lost. I'm sorry that's confusing to you, but redboarding means nothing unless there's a lesson with it, not your vague insults and lack of knowledge.
All you had to do was ask. Or better yet, shown up at Parx. But since you spent 15 years there and gathered nothing, it probably would have been a waste of your time. As a mentor to our newbie, I would tell them to avoid your type. You really have nothing to add here other than bad joo-joo and ego driven banter. Our newbie might get confused and think you actually know what you are talking about. ;)

[iceknight]

I'll just say I think you're full of it and I'd love to book your bets.

What this has to do with teaching a young handicapper I don't know. I hung out with the Parx crew. There were no geniuses there, sorry. You're not one either. I've seen your posts. You have no clue.
Ok guys, this thread has gone way off of track as usual, because of all the egos involved. I should note that Robert Fisher's #71 is one post that has good balance as well as several others by various folks.

Turnitinforhome has substantial clue and pointed out I'll Have Another during most of his campaign, starting as early as Robert Lewis stakes last Feb or so. That said, Physicality handicapping does not always have to involve going to the track yourself.
you can listen to (in my case: maggie at nyra paddock, ed burgart's notes at los alamitos etc) people at the track carefully and get a lot about physical condition of the horse - and this gives you a nice edge.

2011 was my first year in horse betting. It was a loss, although I started with a huge fluke profit during preakness 2011.
2012, however, with substantial help from track notes listening to Maggie (nyra post parage) and Ed Burgart tweets before races (los al), was a profitable year.
2013, started negative, but has already turned positive mainly from factoring in comments about physical condition of horses.

In my book, a series of good workouts is an indication of physical condition, not just a mere data point. Anyhow, I still consider myself very much of a newbie in this game, although I am not "young" by any means.
Castaway, I have seen you give out some good ones too so I really wish that you focus on the topic at hand in the thread, instead of giving any attention to winners posted after the fact.
In summary, I am hoping to use the collective wisdom here and wade past the egotistic posts!

[Tom]

Guess we know now why they are not knocking down the gates to get into the tracks. :rolleyes:

[turninforhome10]

Another thing to teach the newbie is that they are going to need thick skin to take on the endevour. The ability to both create convictions based on objective knowledge and the ability to stand by those convictions in the face off all the sh** storms that will come your way from those that don't see gambling as true vocation or those that don't see breaking some of the conventions of handicapping as a viable way. If you find something and it is working for you, you have to able to stand by these ideas and keep your chin up through even the rough times. It is not going to be easy and there is a big chance that you might doubt yourself when going through a bad streak.

When I was consulting new owners that were thinking about becoming race horse owners, the first question I would ask "Could you take 10k and pitch in into a shredder". They would look confused and ask why. " I would say it is because these animals no matter what you might have learned are flight animals and it would only take one bad scenario and they will run through a fence and cripple themselves".
Had an owner one time that was so proud of the first horse they had ever purchased, "they got a good deal on a granddaughter of Mr Prospector"
First Red Flag
The filly was supposedly gate broke and had 90 days training.
We got her in the barn and one the first day, I had our best boy get the horse ready to go to the track. When he mounted the filly she took off and wiped out the whole shed row.
2nd Red flag
Took her back to the farm and had to completely rebreak her. 60 days later she returns to the track. 20 days into training she starts to get an ankle even before a breeze. I nursed the ankle and got her ready to start. 90 days later she is making her first start after having to broke from the gate 6 times, the starter already hated her.
Long story short she ran her first race, did not beat a horse and was retired due to the ankle. The talked of breeding her, but upon examination of her woman area she was built for this as her area was tilted up and being in foal would preclude her to be constantly infected.
So these folks spent around 15k on a horse that was a supposedly a deal as told to them by the seller. They got nothing in return. They then understood why I asked the original question.
This is the business, it is not for the weak or those that are easily persuaded to think that everyone in the game is ethical. There will times that you will scratch your head and say "no way that just happened". You as a player are dealing with a 1200 lb animal that has a brain the size of walnut and is not waiting around for explanations when they are scared.

[raybo]

I believe a great teacher helps the student find his way, and does not help the student find the teacher's way.

Well said! True especially for horse racing, as everyone tends to find their own method(s), and unduly influencing someone's personal preferences, too much, often does more harm than good.

[raybo]

Another thing to teach the newbie is that they are going to need thick skin to take on the endevour. The ability to both create convictions based on objective knowledge and the ability to stand by those convictions in the face off all the sh** storms that will come your way from those that don't see gambling as true vocation or those that don't see breaking some of the conventions of handicapping as a viable way. If you find something and it is working for you, you have to able to stand by these ideas and keep your chin up through even the rough times. It is not going to be easy and there is a big chance that you might doubt yourself when going through a bad streak.

For once, we agree on something. Well said! Although, in your case, the part about "those that don't see breaking some of the conventions of handicapping as a viable way" seems a bit strange, as you have been promoting physicality handicapping, in mentoring a new player, in your posts. Players have been trying physicality handicapping forever, so that is hardly breaking conventions.

A potential mentor should stress what works for them, regarding mentoring a new player, because the mentor is only "expert" at the method(s) that work for him. So, in your case, you would naturally, and rightly so, include physicality in your mentoring. Others definitely should not include that in their mentoring, simply because they are not "expert" in that method, which includes the vast majority of all "qualified" mentors.

[Robert Goren]

I don't think you can be a winner on Physical Handicapping alone. You need the DRF, too I do think taking a look at a horse before you bet him though will improve your ROI if you know what to look for.

[bob60566]

Another thing to teach the newbie is that they are going to need thick skin to take on the endevour. The ability to both create convictions based on objective knowledge and the ability to stand by those convictions in the face off all the sh** storms that will come your way from those that don't see gambling as true vocation or those that don't see breaking some of the conventions of handicapping as a viable way. If you find something and it is working for you, you have to able to stand by these ideas and keep your chin up through even the rough times. It is not going to be easy and there is a big chance that you might doubt yourself when going through a bad streak.

When I was consulting new owners that were thinking about becoming race horse owners, the first question I would ask "Could you take 10k and pitch in into a shredder". They would look confused and ask why. " I would say it is because these animals no matter what you might have learned are flight animals and it would only take one bad scenario and they will run through a fence and cripple themselves".
Had an owner one time that was so proud of the first horse they had ever purchased, "they got a good deal on a granddaughter of Mr Prospector"
First Red Flag
The filly was supposedly gate broke and had 90 days training.
We got her in the barn and one the first day, I had our best boy get the horse ready to go to the track. When he mounted the filly she took off and wiped out the whole shed row.
2nd Red flag
Took her back to the farm and had to completely rebreak her. 60 days later she returns to the track. 20 days into training she starts to get an ankle even before a breeze. I nursed the ankle and got her ready to start. 90 days later she is making her first start after having to broke from the gate 6 times, the starter already hated her.
Long story short she ran her first race, did not beat a horse and was retired due to the ankle. The talked of breeding her, but upon examination of her woman area she was built for this as her area was tilted up and being in foal would preclude her to be constantly infected.
So these folks spent around 15k on a horse that was a supposedly a deal as told to them by the seller. They got nothing in return. They then understood why I asked the original question.
This is the business, it is not for the weak or those that are easily persuaded to think that everyone in the game is ethical. There will times that you will scratch your head and say "no way that just happened". You as a player are dealing with a 1200 lb animal that has a brain the size of walnut and is not waiting around for explanations when they are scared.

Excellent post :ThmbUp:

[turninforhome10]

I don't think you can be a winner on Physical Handicapping alone. You need the DRF, too I do think taking a look at a horse before you bet him though will improve your ROI if you know what to look for.
You are most correct. Having an interface with written information is crucial. Whether it be the DRF, Bris, or software, the player must be able to create a system of information that means something and can be used to make something meaningful come to light. Speaking from the point of view of a newbie it can be overwhleming to find this. When I first started I went through a host of information, looking for that one thing that would unlock the mysteries of the game. Beyer numbers, Bris power ratings you name I tried it. It was not until I realized it was all about the horse and finding those runners that were 10%'s, could I start to show a profit. The physical part for me is about finding that one horse in the field that looks the part and shows from their form that they can be counted on. If you can find these types of animals, it makes building tickets much easier.
But I agree totally that physical handicapping alone is no magic bullet. There are a lot of million dollar yearlings sold each year that looked the part only to be running at Penn National in a maiden claimer for 5k as an unstarted 4yo.

[Capper Al]

That's very true, unless of course, the mentor trains the player in the use of a tool/program that does most of the work for them. In that case, most of the "work" the player must do relates to developing necessary character traits: patience, discipline, consistency, control of emotions, etc..

Essentially, I'm an intuitive math type person. I remember being in advanced business classes studying with business majors who did well in the class to my amazement by memorizing. They would simply memorize 'what to do' when they encounter a math problem. For instance, when the question was about a certain formula, they would multiply this by that and divide by this without appreciation of what was being involved. What I found out about myself from this observation was that my memorization was depended on 'why' not 'how'. With racing and this thread, the question becomes can races be classified so similar that a 'how' approach would work at least 80% of the time? I do experience similarities between races, but am more amazed at how many times that I have to think on my feet because something doesn't fit into a cookie cutter pattern about the race that I'm looking at. I don't see that a 'How to' approach would work in racing verse a 'why (understanding the elements)'. But then I couldn't believe that those who memorized the formulas could pass the class.

[Capper Al]

Why not just tell him or her to put their head between their legs and kiss their ass goodbye?

That's what I've deduced from this should be innocent conversation.

This game is awesome.

This game is exciting to watch that outmatches anything via spectacle.

Preach genius to me.I will follow every thought.

Do it passionless and you will be suspect for eternity...

I agree. The only way to win and put up with all the work that has to be is by passion.

[raybo]

I agree. The only way to win and put up with all the work that has to be is by passion.

I agree with Rod and you both. Passion and commitment are quite desirable in a new player, or an old one for that matter, but since this thread is about new players and mentoring, what impassions the mentor, might not impassion his student. Loving horse racing, the racing, the horses and their beauty, and form, and tremendous strength, etc., IMO, cannot be taught, however, it can be learned, but not from the mentor necessarily. Certainly, one can become passionate about horse racing, either immediately or over time, but usually that comes about from that person's personal experiences with racing, over time, but much less frequently due to a mentor's teachings.

Passion is sort of open ended, also, you can be passionate about the horses, the racing, the betting, the profit, the challenge, etc., etc.. I, for one, am not truly passionate about anything except making profit, from racing, and especially the creation of tools to enable that, for myself and others.

So, regarding passion, IMO, one of the things a potential mentor should find out first is, are your passions similar to the student's, or are his/her passions likely to become similar to yours? If the answer is yes, then all the better, but if the answer is no, then you should probably adapt your mentoring, if you are able, to what "floats the boat" of the student. If you can't do that, then maybe you shouldn't mentor that student.

Handicapping and wagering, however, can be taught by a mentor, and I believe those are the things that a potential mentor should teach. The mentoring of a new player is plenty tough enough, as it is, without adding things to the mix that really can't, precisely or objectively, be taught.

[Capper Al]

Handicapping and wagering, however, can be taught by a mentor, and I believe those are the things that a potential mentor should teach. The mentoring of a new player is plenty tough enough, as it is, without adding things to the mix that really can't, precisely or objectively, be taught.

Those who are able and willing to learn might be helped by a mentor. What I was questioning earlier was can it be for those who memorize 'How to' as it is for those who learn the 'Why'? I see most commercial software user as 'How to' players.

[turninforhome10]

Those who are able and willing to learn might be helped by a mentor. What I was questioning earlier was can it be for those who memorize 'How to' as it is for those who learn the 'Why'? I see most commercial software user as 'How to' players.
I agree especially with the memorizing part. While going through training to be a Lab Tech, I was surrounded by a lot of folks who just memorize what they needed to pass the test. I thought that was almost a crime. These are fundamentals that you are going to need in order to eventually get the big picture. I remember later on in my career asking an ER doc a question that I had about a result. I knew the answer but thought it courtesy to ask. She stated " I don't remember that, that is 2nd year med school. I understand that she was busy and was probably having trouble thinking on her feet but really. My mentor taught me to take in all information good or bad and keep it handy. It might be the wrong thing now, but that could change later.

[pktruckdriver]

Wow, lot's off great stuff, things I use to participate in . Mentoring, which I have had a few people try to do, and 1 has , according to me, has done me wonders for my game. Thenothers help me, and I think to truly Mentor,
you must be willing to already have a winning game.

Stupid, not really, many have attempted to help me and did not know themselves how to win consisitently.

Also , to be mentored, you must truly be willing to commit, similar to being an intern during college, except this would be your actual college education, if learned and incorporated to make you a winner. I think most of the best mentor's are family members , really close family friends, as these people already know you, and if taken under their wing will do their best to make you succeed.


But the thread started with this

He wants you to take him by the hand, and guide him through the early, highly impressionable stage of a horseplayer's education.

What do you tell him?

That Sir, is up to you, are you willing to accept him into the fold, are you successful enough to be a true Mentor, this is what you must ask yourself.
Is your method teachable and are you a good enough teacher to teach it to him/her? If so, then why not ? Are there too many why not's , if so then you are not ready, otherwise , GO FOR IT !!!

Patrick

[raybo]

Those who are able and willing to learn might be helped by a mentor. What I was questioning earlier was can it be for those who memorize 'How to' as it is for those who learn the 'Why'? I see most commercial software user as 'How to' players.

Of course, the new player should know "Why", in order to develop as a player from a strong fundamental foundation, but he/she should also know "How", whether he/she learns that on their own, or from the mentor, doesn't really matter which, other than the obvious time and frustration involved.

Software is based on some "Why(s)", in the mind of it's creator. Some of whom divulge that "Why" to the user, while others don't. The reason that some don't should be obvious. If a piece of software works for the user, that user need not know the "Why", only the "How", at least until that software quits working for them, then the "Why" would be nice to know, of course.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I agree with Rod and you both. Passion and commitment are quite desirable in a new player, or an old one for that matter, but since this thread is about new players and mentoring, what impassions the mentor, might not impassion his student. Loving horse racing, the racing, the horses and their beauty, and form, and tremendous strength, etc., IMO, cannot be taught, however, it can be learned, but not from the mentor necessarily. Certainly, one can become passionate about horse racing, either immediately or over time, but usually that comes about from that person's personal experiences with racing, over time, but much less frequently due to a mentor's teachings.

Passion is sort of open ended, also, you can be passionate about the horses, the racing, the betting, the profit, the challenge, etc., etc.. I, for one, am not truly passionate about anything except making profit, from racing, and especially the creation of tools to enable that, for myself and others.

So, regarding passion, IMO, one of the things a potential mentor should find out first is, are your passions similar to the student's, or are his/her passions likely to become similar to yours? If the answer is yes, then all the better, but if the answer is no, then you should probably adapt your mentoring, if you are able, to what "floats the boat" of the student. If you can't do that, then maybe you shouldn't mentor that student.

Handicapping and wagering, however, can be taught by a mentor, and I believe those are the things that a potential mentor should teach. The mentoring of a new player is plenty tough enough, as it is, without adding things to the mix that really can't, precisely or objectively, be taught.

I remember the day someone took me to the track for the first time.It was just something to do at a time when escaping boredom,of the the short term and ADD variety,was the modus operandi for the day.Race starts,whatever,they turn for home and I hear this snorting and pounding of hooves.Can hear the anger and competition and arrrgggghhh in their sounds.Life as i knew it was over from that moment on.If I am mentoring a player,I take them out to the rail and see what effect it has on them.If they don't feel it,I would suggest they move on.We know the dark nights will be many(Ecclesiastes),and Ray,I doubt half of them have the resolve you do in nearly pure intellectual challenge.You are one of my mentors,even though we do not share a clear vision.Monk like existence for the formative years.Getting that today would be such a task!Bottomline IMO this is a borderline spiritual event as much as it is an intellectual endeavor.One feeds the other for me.I would want that in someone I was showing the game to.Mystique comes first.Winning comes after.That's the progression.

[bigga 1]

Any advice on how to properly wager for consistent profit.

[raybo]

Any advice on how to properly wager for consistent profit.

Whew!!! Big open-ended question! Without knowing anything about you, your knowledge, your tools, your emotional balance, your bankroll, etc., etc., the first thing absolutely necessary for making consistent profit, is a consistent "edge", or advantage over the general public. If you don't have that edge, find it first. Keep very good records of all your selections in all the races you play/handicap, and the payouts you receive. Then after accumulating a lot of that data, go back and research the record keeping you have accumulated and find out where, exactly, your edge is, in what bet types, what tracks, what types of races, surfaces, distances, etc.. Once you find your "niche", concentrate your efforts on those bet types and race types. Yes, you can spend some time improving your results in other types of bets and races, but if you're after consistent profits, you should only play the races and bet types you have the edge in.

Patience, Discipline, and Consistency in every facet of your play, in both 'capping, and wagering, will bring you to the Promised Land. I can guarantee you that if your handicapping and/or wagering is all over the board, without a solid base, you will just be another gambler.

My 2 cents worth.

[Capper Al]

Any advice on how to properly wager for consistent profit.

Takes Dave's class the 'Basics of Winning'.

[cj]

Any advice on how to properly wager for consistent profit.

Easy...stick to betting horses that offer value. Now, can you identify those horses?

[Capper Al]

Easy...stick to betting horses that offer value. Now, can you identify those horses?

No.

[Mike A]

1. First, take the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator assessment. If your type dynamics are INTJ, continue. Otherwise, go no further. You probably don't have the personality type to truly succeed in this business.
2. Do not read any books about horse racing or handicapping.
3. Go back to school to get the following minimal education:

one of these:
BSCS - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BSCS - Stanford
BSCS - Carnegie Mellon

and one of these:
MSCF - Carnegie Mellon
MSFE - Columbia
MEFE - Cornell

4. Now you have all of the skills that you need to make money in racetrack betting markets.

Regarding the Myers-Briggs, I hope you are kidding, since, to begin with re viability, the short version is that their system is a complete fabrication.

Nevermind the fact that personality typologies in general are usually worse than useless to put it bluntly.

And re getting all those degrees, I realize we all have our own opinions, and thask. was asking for just that, but I really think, or to put it more relevantly I just about flat-out know, that that would be a colossal waste of time, money and just overall resources.

(And yeah, 2shay in advance if I'm mistakenly taking what was meant as a joke seriously...I admit I'm not familiar with your previous posts :))

But success at this game is a skill-set that is very learnable without any recourse to extensive training at top universities. Some very basic tools of thought are all that are necessary in terms of..well, tools of thought, i.e., some basics of inductive and deductive reasoning. And then developing a fundamental understanding of the game and respecting this framework consistently.

[turninforhome10]

Regarding the Myers-Briggs, I hope you are kidding, since, to begin with re viability, the short version is that their system is a complete fabrication.

Nevermind the fact that personality typologies in general are usually worse than useless to put it bluntly.

And re getting all those degrees, I realize we all have our own opinions, and thask. was asking for just that, but I really think, or to put it more relevantly I just about flat-out know, that that would be a colossal waste of time, money and just overall resources.

(And yeah, 2shay in advance if I'm mistakenly taking what was meant as a joke seriously...I admit I'm not familiar with your previous posts :))

But success at this game is a skill-set that is very learnable without any recourse to extensive training at top universities. Some very basic tools of thought are all that are necessary in terms of..well, tools of thought, i.e., some basics of inductive and deductive reasoning. And then developing a fundamental understanding of the game and respecting this framework consistently.
Excellent post Mike,
In conclusion I would ask our newbie if they really want to join a profession that has
high rates of substance abuse
higher than normal rates of suicide and mental illness
higher than normal rates of divorce and relationship problems
no benefits with regards to health insurance and retirement
periods without income
10-14 hr days of the same thing every day(that is the real world to)
The list above is the real gamble for our newbie even before they place their first wager.
Then after a year of playing I would ask them to the answer the questions found on any 1-800 bets off flyer. If they are honest with themselves(this is key) then they be the only who will know for sure if this game is truly for them.

[raybo]

No.

Ahhh - a truly honest man!

[atlasaxis]

Any advice on how to properly wager for consistent profit.

Get Dick Mitchell's "Commonsense Betting" for a full answer to your question.

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

read some books and stay off of message boards.learn from your mistakes.

[DeltaLover]

read some books and stay off of message boards.learn from your mistakes.


I am under the impression that learning from mistakes will not take someone very far while trying to master any domain including science, craft, art or anything else.

It would have been interesting to see your thought process that drove you to such an extreme conclusion articulated in a littlle more comprehensive statement that a one line aphorism...

[Dave Schwartz]

I have pretty much stayed out of this thread but am surprised at how long it has gone on. Therefore, there must be real interest in this topic.


Also , to be mentored, you must truly be willing to commit, similar to being an intern during college, except this would be your actual college education, if learned and incorporated to make you a winner.

PK, you said a mouthful here. What would be the characteristics of a "Promising Beginner?" Most of all, it would be someone who was eager and open to learn. It would be someone who did not have all these preconceived notions of what and how the process should work.

What about mentoring someone who was not so much of a beginner?

That is probably going to be much more difficult. I have been helping one of our more recent new clients a little. I say "a little" because I simply do not have the time to do much beyond answering his questions.

Picture hungry baby birds in the nest. There is one bird with its mouth open a little wider, screaming a little louder, than the others. That bird will get fed just a little more each time. In a matter of days, it will be a little bigger than its nest mates. In 3 weeks it will dwarf them. Such is this guy in my crowd.

I do a lot of things... shall we say "differently?" ... than many would consider normal.

During the first two days of my recent live play sessions, because there were times when there were very few people, we had some time to talk. Especially later in the day. One of the things that hit home with me was how often he lapsed back into "but shouldn't you do this?"

Often that is the biggest stumbling block to mentoring: what the "ment-ee" already knows.

Everyone knows that famous quote about the definition of insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result." Yet, that is precisely how the losing horse player thinks when a winning player offers an idea.

I am reminded of the player who asked me to offer proof when I said that layoff horses coming back in 31-45 days actually win more races and return more money than horses back in 10-14 days. His response was, "Well, I don't care! I am still not going to play layoff horses."

The unspoken mantra of the losing player is: "I am going to hold on to what I believe despite the fact that what I am doing doesn't work."

This is akin to a golfer with a hook getting lesson from a current PGA coach (which in my mind would be far better than from a current PGA player). The coach says, "You are holding the club wrong." Player responds with, "That's how I like to do it."

BTW, while we are at it, let's just dispel that myth about "Them that can, do. Them that can't teach."
Being a great golfer does not guarantee that you are a great teacher. Being a great teacher is far different.

This will probably draw me some flack, but...
Consider the people who offer most wisdom on this board. Listen to what they say about their own play. Do they say that they are winning? Most do not. Some even admit that they do not win. That does not preclude them from giving good advice, but it needs to be confirmed by some of the winners.

Back to the golf analogy. Why would YOU want to be guided by the PGA coach instead of the PGA player? Because the PGA player is actually using the coach!

Of course, here we have lots of people offering "coaching" (of sorts). At least we could call it advice. Who SHOULD you listen to?

That reminds me of that old Wendy's commercial: "Where's the beef?" The horse racing version of that would be, "Where's the proof?"

That PGA golf coach might not be the secret to the player's success, but I'd still rather give him a chance than the club pro at the local golf course.

How do you separate the two? You watch what they teach. Then you decide if: (A) What they say makes sense to you. (B) Do they sound like they could be right? Beyond that it is a crap shoot.


One person asks:
Any advice on how to properly wager for consistent profit.

... and CJ answers:
Easy...stick to betting horses that offer value. Now, can you identify those horses?


Now, CJ is a guy who has more than a little horse racing mileage on him. If you are smart, when he speaks you listen. If you cannot tell that he is the real deal, then you need a coach to help you find a coach.

That assumes that the way he talks (and what he has to say) is something that you can learn from.

You've got TurningForHome as another example. You read between the lines. Does he sound like the real deal? If he does, you listen. (To me he does; he has me convinced that he knows what he is talking about.)

However, what TFH has to say is not something that I (personally) can integrate into my approach. Therefore, despite how knowledgeable he might be, I cannot use it. (No disrespect meant to TFH here. I just cannot use physicality in my handicapping and still bet 10 races per hour.)

I am sure that people see me the same way. Like I said earlier, I do things very differently. I mean, I play every race I handicap. EVERY RACE! You can't do that and win, right? That is what everybody KNOWS, right?

And I have been know to play 3 horses in a 6-horse field. That's crazy, right? Can't possibly win doing that, can you? Heck, everybody knows that?

So, you get to decide: Am I worth listening to?

My point is this: The Mentor and the "Mentor-ee" need to be a good match.

The Mentoree (if that is even a word; I keep trying different versions hoping to get one of them right. LOL)... The mentoree must provide an open, teachable mind, while the mentor must come with knowledge, experience and some kind of track record.

And the best track record to have is NOT as a winning player but as a good teacher.


One last point: In order to become a winning player, you must be willing to do it through continual improvement. Most players will simply not do that. They expect to simply jump from being a big loser to being a winner. LOL - Now, they are not greedy. They don't expect to jump to being a BIG winner. Just being a small winner will do them nicely.

Back to the golf analogy: That is like a 16-handicap going to a coach and expecting that the coach is going to teach him how to be a 3 handicap in 4 lessons. Not going to happen.

Long winded as usual. I have been saving up.

I hope this gives somebody something that can resonate with them


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: If you want to see me in action, come watch me play live. Read about it here on PA. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1381778#post1381778)

[raybo]

Dave, that was about as good as it gets, regarding giving and receiving instruction and advice!

I really like your golf analogies especially, you don't have to be a successful player to be a successful coach. It takes different skill sets for both, and often they don't overlap exactly. However, a person can be both, if they have both skill sets. That kind of coach could demand, and more than likely, receive premium compensation for his time and instruction, especially in our game, because not only do you have to be a good handicapper, you must also be a good wagerer/gambler. A coach/mentor that possesses both is a true "diamond in the rough".

The other points in your post were also, on point, I especially liked the multiple horse bets in a short field. Why wouldn't one want to bet multiple horses in a 6 horse field, if one could get value in those multiple bets? The hit rate on such a race would be, almost across the board, much better than a single bet in such a race.

Mentoring someone who is already experienced can be very perplexing, and for the experienced student, extremely hard. Such a student must "unlearn" some of what he already knows, and everyone knows, bad habits can be almost impossible to shelve. I know, for a fact, that that was the case for me, regarding my use of Excel as a handicapping vehicle. I became proficient in its usage, for handicapping, much quicker than if I had previously used it in a different environment. I started with Excel for one purpose, handicapping horses. I had no former experience with Excel, so when I started creating workbooks for racing those workbooks reflected only what was necessary to accomplish what I wanted to accomplish. My workbooks look, and operate differently than those that were created by others who had learned Excel in a different environment, like business. They start out with what they were taught for that environment, not horse racing. If they ever became proficient in its usage for horse racing, particularly with handicapping and record keeping, they surely had to "forget" some of what they already knew, and surely had to cross a few boundaries that went against the grain. Many can't make that transition. The same is true regarding experienced players who seek instruction from a mentor, they have to forget things that they have believed as true and necessary for success, for years, or decades even. That can be extremely hard to do.

Great post!!

[Stillriledup]

A bright, financially responsible beginner comes to you and asks you to play a major role in his development as a horseplayer...and he will not be dissuaded by your advice that this game might no longer be worth getting serious about. He sees you as a winning player, and asks you to be a mentor of sorts to him.

He is looking for something a little more substantial than book recommendations and trite advice -- like "play on paper until you prove you can win"...or "stick to win bets, and leave the exotics for later on".

He wants you to take him by the hand, and guide him through the early, highly impressionable stage of a horseplayer's education.

What do you tell him?

Learn the gambling part of the game, how to handle money, when and how much to risk, percentages, etc.

Also, there are no shortcuts to greatness....nobody is going to whisper the winners in your ear, you have to uncover them with diligent and tireless work. Come up with a great opinion and believe in that opinion.

Another big factor is to really be able to handle the emotional side of bad beats and bogus DQs and be able to move on from knowing you were an eyelash away from a big score....gotta be able to turn the page as there's another race 20 mins away.

[Stillriledup]

[QUOTE=Dave Schwartz]I have pretty much stayed out of this thread but am surprised at how long it has gone on. Therefore, there must be real interest in this topic.



The real interest in this topic is fascinating...it says a lot about the mind of the horseplayer.

[maddog42]

I couldn't disageee more about picking winners. You have to pick winners and pick them often. This waiting for a value bet is a nice theory, but in real life.... almost nobody can pass a lot of races in a row and then when have 8 or 10 value bets lose in a row, you start doing foolish things. Horse racing is not poker . In poker there is pot every few minutes, it easy to fold and wait for a hand, but try folding for 2 straight hours sometime. Bad things start to happen in many ways. In racing, it is 25-30 minutes between races. Sometimes you have to bet a winner even though the value isn't there, just to keep your head in the game. he has got to learn to pick winners before he starts betting exotics or his head will really get messed up. Betting Exotics for value is about step 4 in the learning process. It is not for beginners. You have start by betting 1 track, then step 2 is betting 2 or 3 tracks , if he gets that far.
Back in the days of online poker and poker forums, there was always someone posting about how they could not beat the bottom level because nobody ever folded to their bluffs, so they were going to move up in stakes in search of people who would fold to his bluffs. These posters soon disappeared for obvious reasons. You have got learn to crawl before you can walk and walk before can run. Picking winners at one track is crawling. Betting exotic for value is running really fast.

Passing races is almost as important as folding bad hands. No one can win at this game without passing races. The only way to play every race is a $2 action bet on bad races and a 10-1 bet increase( or something similar) on the good races.

While I agree with Mr. Goren on a lot of political issues, I strongly disagree
with his scorn of value plays. I agree that the "pick a lot of winners" argument can work if you are a super Picker , but the vast majority of even very good handicappers CANNOT win this way. The truth is that you will sometime lose 8 or 10 in a row(sooner or later) even if you are playing low priced horses. Get ready for it. This is of course assuming you bet one horse per race. Anyone that tells you different is lying or hasn't been playing very long.

[DeltaLover]

The poker analogy is reasonable although we need to notice the following:

We can never completely pass a poker hand. Being dealt a 'free' hand assumes that you have already played a blind which compensates for the next round of hands. Horse betting does not have this concept as we can liberally pass as many races we wish and make a bet whenever we think we are having the edge.

Playing tight in poker is noticed by other players thus becoming an attribute of your optimum strategy. This means that if you are perceived as a tight player you can actually use your table image to increase your ROI by changing gears, the same does not apply to horse racing. To speak with poker terms, although our metagame is of fundamental value when playing poker it is completely non existent in horse betting.

In poker you can be much more precise about your win / lose odds than you can be in horse racing. Simple math can easily calculate the odds of any open card situation (like for example in an all in case where we open our cards before the flop) while even the more complicated case of closed cards can be approached successfully with some elementary understanding of Bayesian probabilities. When it comes to horse racing there is no similar analytical approach that can be used.


Poker as a game is easier to create the illusion of an easy to beat gamble as opposed to horse racing which tends to discourage its newcomers really easy. Based in this illusion, it is much easier for a skilled poker player to find a game which he can beat since the newbie cannot understand his lack of skill and tries to compete against a better opponent. This does not appear the case in horse racing where there is a single pool accumulating all the bets giving no selectivity to the bettor.

[jasperson]

I was thinking about finding a mentor for myself after my results get into a database. (It has been hard to find the time to build the database. ) A second set of eyes, if I find the right mentor,should help me improve my game.

The problem of mentoring is trust. How much info gets shared. Would a mentor give away his cherrished secrets? The stuff a mentee really wants to know. I don't know if I could give away my hard fought lessons to a stranger.
Al, I wouldn't worry to much about that. Handicappers are very much an indivilistic group. My buddy knows my handicapping and I know his and neither one of us uses the others methods. My best bets come from maiden and turf races and that is his first cut. No maidens or turf races. He has a checklist system that maybe 4 or 5 races a day in which he bet $200 to place on them they are all favorites or near favorites. I am more of a longshot player and look for horse that should pay well. I look for something other handicappers are over looking like 1st front bandages, big weight shifts,1st lasix on early speed types,change in track conditions and others. Sometimes I bet his horse and sometimes he will make small bets on mine, but we will never use each others methods.
Jack

[castaway01]

Dave, that was a brilliant post. You summed it up right there.

[thaskalos]

NO.

Somewhere in the readings of your posts you stated that you are a single father and sole support of your child or children and that your only income is from the horses.

you come across as an extremely bright and helpful person--but this is a parimutual game and whatever edge you give away will NOT COME BACK and unless your financial situation at this time is such that you could take a substantial and permanent hit on your handicapping without it being a problem
I don't think mentoring is for you.

I think the best you can offer is give him the books you found most helpful--
and have him come on this board and ask questions.

I appreciate the kind remarks...as well as the sound advice. To be honest, my question was hypothetical in nature...and I did not intend it to appear as if I had found myself in the predicament that my post here describes.

I have tried my hand at mentoring twice...and it ended up badly both times. In both cases, although I was able to teach certain important things about this game to my "students"...I was unable to transfer to them, other, more important knowledge...without which success in this game becomes impossible. You can teach someone many things, and they will swear to you that they agree with the concepts...but you cannot always look over their shoulder to make sure that they stick to the gameplan which was discussed.

I have come to realize that the most important gambling knowledge CAN be learned...but it cannot necessarily be taught by others. The teacher's "truth" is only his...and it will not become the student's truth until the student convinces himself that it applies to him as well. In a sense...we are all SELF-TAUGHT...because each of us has to convince OURSELVES of the validity of the subject matter.

There are parts to my game which I cannot teach to others...no matter how hard I try.

I have a great love affair with this game, and this allows me to spend enormous amounts of time studying and playing it...without it ever resembling what some would consider "work".

I have a disposition which allows me to wager large amounts of money without the attached anxiety and discomfort that most people in this situation feel.

And I also have a high threshold for pain -- which comes in handy during the inevitable downturns that all of us gamblers experience.

This "inner" part of my game is part of the "edge" that I feel I have over most of the players I compete against. For even if this sort of edge is hard to measure mathematically...it exists just the same.

I have tried to teach this aspect of the game to others...and I have failed. It might be something that players can only teach to themselves...

[Dave Schwartz]

Passing races is almost as important as folding bad hands. No one can win at this game without passing races. The only way to play every race is a $2 action bet on bad races and a 10-1 bet increase( or something similar) on the good races.

I rest my case.

:lol: :bang:

[Capper Al]

Passing races is almost as important as folding bad hands. No one can win at this game without passing races. The only way to play every race is a $2 action bet on bad races and a 10-1 bet increase( or something similar) on the good races.

While I agree with Mr. Goren on a lot of political issues, I strongly disagree
with his scorn of value plays. I agree that the "pick a lot of winners" argument can work if you are a super Picker , but the vast majority of even very good handicappers CANNOT win this way. The truth is that you will sometime lose 8 or 10 in a row(sooner or later) even if you are playing low priced horses. Get ready for it. This is of course assuming you bet one horse per race. Anyone that tells you different is lying or hasn't been playing very long.

I passed one race last Saturday. I believe that might have been the only one in 2012.

[thaskalos]

I rest my case.

:lol: :bang:
Hold on a second, Dave...

You have criticized some of us for refusing to bet on laid-off horses; why can't we, in turn, criticize you for refusing to pass any races? :cool:

[MightBeSosa]

I am the King of Passing Races and have been from day 1 , which was some time ago.

I prefer to bet only when I have a clue, or imagine same.

The only downside, and it's a big one , is you must go from the inertia of not betting, to sending it in.

Folks that bet 'em all don't have that issue. Not to mention, I might be walking around lucky and not know it.

[DeltaLover]

Passing a race is one of the two most critical question we need to answer when betting horses. Selecting the size and type of our bet is the other one.

Alan N. Schoonmaker in his great book The Psychology of Poker is introducing a player behavior two dimension matrix measuring tightness - looseness and passiveness - aggression.


We can make a similar concept for horse players where tightness - looseness is measured by how many races the gambler is betting and as passiveness - aggression the maximum amount that he can win based in his bets. Note that the latter depends both in the absolute size of the bet and in the odds of his bets.

We can talk endlessly about the 'shape' of the winning player in respect to these two dimensions and certainly this discussion deserves its own thread.

In general I believe that the best profile will be a 7 - 6 or 7 - 7 where each dimension is measured from 0 - 10...

[Dave Schwartz]

Hold on a second, Dave...

You have criticized some of us for refusing to bet on laid-off horses; why can't we, in turn, criticize you for refusing to pass any races?

You are welcome to criticize me for anything you deem appropriate.

No one can win at this game without passing races.
This is an untrue statement. I win at the game without passing races.

Note that I said I bet every race I handicap. I do not handicap every race.

Also, I recognize that I could pass races and perhaps it would increase my ROI. In fact, I may well eventually do that, but not until I have enough races to determine that passing those races would result in more long-term profit without a significant loss of consistency.

In other words, risk and reward must be considered.

[shouldacoulda]

So many good points in this thread. After reading Daves "long winded" post with great pleasure I might add I would like to pose this question from a teachers point of view. Wouldn't it make sense to expose your protégé to as many aspects of this game as possible? Such as speed figures, reading form cycle through the speed figures, pace, understanding race shape, physicality, horses form cycles, trainers intent and reading the action in the pools and reading the race conditions properly and let the protégé find his own comfort zone or niche. I know there are more disciplines but I will readily admit I don't know it all. He may want to play every race, dutch horses in a race or just wait and be selective and pick his/her shots where there is a real edge conducive to their style of play. He or she may excel at exotic wagers or just win bets. I remember reading a post by a real pro on this forum who earned a living by specializing in exactas when it threatened rain, but didn't, because he would bet the horses fitted with bend shoes. I wish I could remember his name. It was a real treasure to hear what he had to say.

To the golf analogy, there are more ways to hit a golf shot than one. What works best is what the golfer feels the most confident hitting be it a fade or draw or knock down etc. With respect to horse racing, A bettor may do better at claiming races than allowance or stakes. I really like when it is an off track. Others won't play when it is an off track. Who is right? Both of course. If you don't do well with your "style" of handicapping on an off track why bother? I have made some real nice scores on an off track and look forward to the muddy slop when it happens. I don't look down on those that won't play on an off track.

This understanding of your weak and strong points comes from constant self analysis and record keeping which seems to be a common underlying theme in most of these posts and a necessity to a serious player who wants to be successful. If your "protégé doesn't possess that single quality then you are most likely making another betting parlor loiterer throwing away his or her money and wasting your time. To somebody like that I would say what Ben Hogan would say when asked for golf pointers "dig it out of the ground like I did".

[raybo]

You are welcome to criticize me for anything you deem appropriate.


This is an untrue statement. I win at the game without passing races.

Note that I said I bet every race I handicap. I do not handicap every race.

Also, I recognize that I could pass races and perhaps it would increase my ROI. In fact, I may well eventually do that, but not until I have enough races to determine that passing those races would result in more long-term profit without a significant loss of consistency.

In other words, risk and reward must be considered.

I assumed that was what you meant. The statement "you can't be successful if you play every race", IMO, is as true as anything in racing. However, if you qualify races, and only handicap those that fit your criteria, then yes, you can be successful betting every race you handicap. Big difference there.

[Magister Ludi]

I remember reading a post by a real pro on this forum who earned a living by specializing in exactas when it threatened rain, but didn't, because he would bet the horses fitted with bend shoes. I wish I could remember his name. It was a real treasure to hear what he had to say.

His name is Mr. Ernest Dahlman.

[Magister Ludi]

The statement "you can't be successful if you play every race", IMO, is as true as anything in racing.

Not true. I have several metrics that I play in every race.

[turninforhome10]

As far as the whole teaching thing goes let me ask this question?
Our newbie has done well and we realize we have taught them all that we care to share.
The newbie has fallen into good luck and has been given 1 of the 2 choices to continue his education. These will be courses.
1st Choice( All hypothetical )
Robert Frankel- Trainer intent and handicapping ( yes Frankel was a handicapper)
King Leatherbury to watch his plays and how he handicaps the horse.
Mac Miller and the Taylor Boys to learn confirmation and the aspect of the horse.
Ron Anderson- Top Jock agent to learn the condition book and the workings of the racing office.
Dale Baird- How to get the most from a horses racing conditions
2nd Choice
A top speed handicapper
A top pace handicapper
A top software player
A mathematician and statistics guru
A top player who has turned teacher
Now put yourself in the shoes of the newbie.
Both choices are very good. What group you choose is gonna say alot about how think and what makes sense to you. I am from the group that would choose 1. Why? For the reasons I explained earlier. Certain personality types gravitate towards certain ways of learning.
Is it easier to teach a brain surgeon to become a master plumber or vice versa?

[thaskalos]

As far as the whole teaching thing goes let me ask this question?
Our newbie has done well and we realize we have taught them all that we care to share.
The newbie has fallen into good luck and has been given 1 of the 2 choices to continue his education. These will be courses.
1st Choice( All hypothetical )
Robert Frankel- Trainer intent and handicapping ( yes Frankel was a handicapper)
King Leatherbury to watch his plays and how he handicaps the horse.
Mac Miller and the Taylor Boys to learn confirmation and the aspect of the horse.
Ron Anderson- Top Jock agent to learn the condition book and the workings of the racing office.
Dale Baird- How to get the most from a horses racing conditions
2nd Choice
A top speed handicapper
A top pace handicapper
A top software player
A mathematician and statistics guru
A top player who has turned teacher
Now put yourself in the shoes of the newbie.
Both choices are very good. What group you choose is gonna say alot about how think and what makes sense to you. I am from the group that would choose 1. Why? For the reasons I explained earlier. Certain personality types gravitate towards certain ways of learning.
Is it easier to teach a brain surgeon to become a master plumber or vice versa?

I would pick group 2 with no hesitation.

Trainers have more information about their own horses in the race, of course...but I wouldn't trust their judgement when it comes to analyzing the other horses in the field.

Perhaps my opinion is influenced by the fact that I shared the same table at an OTB with a respected Chicago-area trainer for years...and heard first-hand as he narrated story after story about the incompetence of these trainers and jockeys at the betting windows.

My trainer-friend liked to say that his life's dream was to be a bookie operating exclusively on the backstretch. He would be rich in no time...he told me.

[Maximillion]

I would then refer them to a "local" expert like MM at mnr or JHS at Tup to prevent them from making "dumb" bets.

[raybo]

Not true. I have several metrics that I play in every race.

Whatever, did you notice the "IMO" in my post? I suppose there is at least "1" exception to every rule, even a rule as important as not betting every race, on every card, at every track you play.

[shouldacoulda]

His name is Mr. Ernest Dahlman.
YES! Thanks.

[Capper Al]

Passing a race is one of the two most critical question we need to answer when betting horses. Selecting the size and type of our bet is the other one.

Alan N. Schoonmaker in his great book The Psychology of Poker is introducing a player behavior two dimension matrix measuring tightness - looseness and passiveness - aggression.


We can make a similar concept for horse players where tightness - looseness is measured by how many races the gambler is betting and as passiveness - aggression the maximum amount that he can win based in his bets. Note that the latter depends both in the absolute size of the bet and in the odds of his bets.

We can talk endlessly about the 'shape' of the winning player in respect to these two dimensions and certainly this discussion deserves its own thread.

In general I believe that the best profile will be a 7 - 6 or 7 - 7 where each dimension is measured from 0 - 10...

The skipping races like passing in poker analog doesn't work. In horse racing once an edge is established then it becomes the more one plays the more one makes. It's simple math. If my edge is 10% then if I bet 100 races I score 110, if I bet 1000 races then I score 1100. I believe passing is good for those learning the game, but not for those with an edge.

[Tom]

His name is Mr. Ernest Dahlman.

I thought he'd be bigger.

[Capper Al]

The skipping races like passing in poker analog doesn't work. In horse racing once an edge is established then it becomes the more one plays the more one makes. It's simple math. If my edge is 10% then if I bet 100 races I score 110, if I bet 1000 races then I score 1100. I believe passing is good for those learning the game, but not for those with an edge.

Let me clarify. By 100 turning into 110, I was assuming one betting unit per race. A unit can consist of several bets. The idea was a 10% gain.

[barn32]

I believe that once you taught a promising, bright, beginning player the mathematics of this game he just might be intelligent enough to realize that the negative expectation he has to overcome in order to become a successful handicapper just might not be worth the more than half a lifetime he will have to invest in order to even have a remote chance at making a decent living playing the horses.

[TurfRuler]

While mentoring, how would you divide the winnings?

[DeltaLover]

The skipping races like passing in poker analog doesn't work. In horse racing once an edge is established then it becomes the more one plays the more one makes. It's simple math. If my edge is 10% then if I bet 100 races I score 110, if I bet 1000 races then I score 1100. I believe passing is good for those learning the game, but not for those with an edge.

A betting model has two fundamental metrics:

(1) Its betting frequency ( how often it has a betting opinion)

(2) The expectation for each bet

The final PNL is a function of both. Depending on (2) a model that always an opinion can show a larger profit than one that bets very sparingly. The opposite could also be true.

We can use any casino game as an example. Take for example baccarat, where the house always maintains a slim but constant advantage over the player while imposing maximum bet sizing. Under this conditions your statement applies the most. The more 'action' the casino receives into this proposition the more sure and largest its winnings will be be.

If you believe you can do the same as a horse player, then this is the way to go. I cannot prove it analytically but I am convinced that something like this is impossible to happen betting horses (especially into mutual pools).

Successful horse betting is a product of non self weighted events rather than self weighted.

Your opinion will be more profitable in smaller subsets of the offered races and there will be groups of races that you will not be able to show a profit at all.

The risk reward ratio is not the same for the complete universe of races and it is your task as a bettor to find the most valuable situations and bet them aggressively while completely ignore those who do not offer clear signs of profitability.


Let me clarify. By 100 turning into 110, I was assuming one betting unit per race. A unit can consist of several bets. The idea was a 10% gain.

Although useful for simulations and theoretical analysis, betting a unit a race is a self weighting approach limiting your ability to create situations for big scores. Chances are that you will do much better if you bet your whole budget to a couple of races out of a full card rather than trying to spread to all of them. The skill needed is to isolate these races and ignore the others. More than this you have to give yourself the opportunity to get lucky by exposing your bets to a big risk. If not it is impossible to even have a big day. A conservative approach where you are focusing in small time grinding while keeping your risk low, simply does not work in horse racing.


You can make hundreds of thousand of bets per year and just a single two dollar bet out of them might convert you from a looser to a life time winner assuming you are taking enough risk.

The proper balance of tightness and aggression is an absolute necessary component of a winning strategy.

Take for example this posting:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=99411

where someone claims that using Prime Power allowed him to have a high win percentage and ROI founding only 22 plays during a period of months, all of them been favorites.

This strategy is as weak as it can go. Of course it is beating a loosing one but it is not much different than just no betting at all. This is an example of extreme tightness and extreme passiveness having very little value even if in theory it can show a tiny profit (so tiny that even the cost of buying the DRF has to be considered!)

The other extreme would have been someone betting all races, always selecting huge long shots and betting large amounts...

The ultimate approach should be somewhere in between....

[Tom]

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

IMHO.

[raybo]

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

IMHO.

That is my feeling also. I don't know if Al means he bets every race on a card and has a 10% edge, or if he means that, of the races he plays he has a 10% edge. If the former is true, then a little analysis of his, hopefully thorough record keeping, will allow him to pass races where he has a negative expection (less than 0% edge).

If he, indeed, bets every race, on every card, and has an edge of 10%, then he is simply the best player I have ever seen, or heard of, but I seriously doubt that is true. But, if it is true, he is truly the King of pony players and undoubtedly quite wealthy, from race betting, by now.

[Dave Schwartz]

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

I am of the opinion that profit can be derived from almost all races. It is the rare race where the public gets the planets lined up perfectly.

However, given a significant sample of races actually wagered, it is inevitable, that eventually patterns will emerge showing high spots and low spots.

The problem is that you need to put in a couple of thousand wagers usually to see these patterns emerge. Most people will not be able to play that many races and still be close enough to even to finish accumulating the necessary sample.

That is when they quit.

Of course, they could also play without money for a couple of thousand races - but who is going to do that?

I realize that the math guys - of which I am not really one -would say that you just test against the database.

As one who has done that for eons I can tell you that it is ALWAYS different when you go live.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[raybo]

I am of the opinion that profit can be derived from almost all races. It is the rare race where the public gets the planets lined up perfectly.

However, given a significant sample of races actually wagered, it is inevitable, that eventually patterns will emerge showing high spots and low spots.

The problem is that you need to put in a couple of thousand wagers usually to see these patterns emerge. Most people will not be able to play that many races and still be close enough to even to finish accumulating the necessary sample.

That is when they quit.

Of course, they could also play without money for a couple of thousand races - but who is going to do that?

I realize that the math guys - of which I am not really one -would say that you just test against the database.

As one who has done that for eons I can tell you that it is ALWAYS different when you go live.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Agree, there is value to be had in all races, however, one's ability to find that value, in every race, probably ain't gonna happen. Maybe Al has found the goose that laid the golden egg?

[thaskalos]

The skipping races like passing in poker analog doesn't work. In horse racing once an edge is established then it becomes the more one plays the more one makes. It's simple math. If my edge is 10% then if I bet 100 races I score 110, if I bet 1000 races then I score 1100. I believe passing is good for those learning the game, but not for those with an edge.

I look at rhetoric like this the same way I look at the rhetoric of the Republican Party. The logic appears flawless; I am just never satisfied when I see it put to actual practice.

A hardworking, hi-tech handicapper who finds a worthwhile bet in every race can easily end up wagering on 15,000 races a year. If he can maintain a 10% ROI, then his financial worries are over in short order...and he doesn't need much money to start with.

A $1,500 initial bankroll -- with a $10 wagering unit -- would be transformed into a $16,500 bankroll after only one year's play.

The second year...our hero can look forward to a profit of $165,000 -- while making bets in the $100 range. And if he should take his bets up to the $200 range during the third year...then we are talking about what the late Dick Mitchell liked to call..."Rolls Royce wages."

[raybo]

I look at rhetoric like this the same way I look at the rhetoric of the Republican Party. The logic appears flawless; I am just never satisfied when I see it put to actual practice.

A hardworking, hi-tech handicapper who finds a worthwhile bet in every race can easily end up wagering on 15,000 races a year. If he can maintain a 10% ROI, then his financial worries are over in short order...and he doesn't need much money to start with.

A $1,500 initial bankroll -- with a $10 wagering unit -- would be transformed into a $16,500 bankroll after only one year's play.

The second year...our hero can look forward to a profit of $165,000 -- while making bets in the $100 range. And if he should take his bets up to the $200 range during the third year...then we are talking about what the late Dick Mitchell liked to call..."Rolls Royce wages."

Well said!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[pktruckdriver]

The Mentoree's Commandments



1. It’s your job, not your mentor’s job.
2. Think commitment, not lip service.
3. Show up for the relationship.
4. Give back and get more.
5. Keep expectations realistic.
6. It’s risky, but it’s healthy.
7. Be yourself; we already have everybody else.
8. Don’t be afraid of your mentor’s silence.
9. Pay it forward.


I am ready to be a Mentoree, who is up to thee challenge, many have tried and a few have done well and made me better, but I need to find a true Mentor and then commit completely to what ever it is I am being taught, whether it is starting and running a Horse Hauling Business, becoming a professional horse player (gambler/investor), clocker, assistant trainer, or even a Hot Walker, or starting a horse rescue operation. All things could be an area where a true Mentor would be helpful, and I am ready to leap into any of those scenarios.

I currently have a retired Marine Gunny helping me with my weight loss and with his help I am succeeding beyond what I have been able to do by myself, so I know his help is the reason for my current success, at least 45lbs lost so far, and I wish to drop another 100lbs minimum, but with the help from my mentor, I will lost undoubtly BE ABLE TO DO IT!!

WAITING PATIENTLY

[Dave Schwartz]

PK,

I am truly amazed and thrilled at your progress as a human being, my friend.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Make that three :ThmbUp:


Dave

[jdhanover]

PK,

I am truly amazed and thrilled at your progress as a human being, my friend.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Make that three :ThmbUp:


Dave

Agree 100% Keep up the GREAT work Patrick!

[pktruckdriver]

PK,

I am truly amazed and thrilled at your progress as a human being, my friend.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Make that three :ThmbUp:


Dave

Thank you Dave

You my friend had a part in this too, and for that I thank you. I have been probably the toughest customer you had, and you opened up your home and gave me all the assistance one person needed to become winner and I just could not put it all together, WHY, this is still a question I am curently dealing with and will definetly overcome, SO, I can become the winner I so truly desire to become. I was very confrontational, blaming others for what has now been diagnosed as a learning disability on my part, one that I refused to acknowledge , but in doing so now, life has become so much more enjoyable for me and those around me. Thank you Dave for being able to forgive the things I have done, not many would.

Thanks again Dave
Patrick

[Aner]

It has been my experience that it is best to pass races that have fewer than 8 entries. When I do this, my chalk play has been profitable last year.

For example, considering only the morning line favorite and using a highly selected criterion (around 10% of races are playable):

Races with less than 8 entries: hit rate = 48%; loss= 22%
Races with more than 8 entries: hit rate = 47%; profit = 6%

Of course, even though this is about a year's worth of data, the sample size is too small to really count. However, I do think the trend is there.

[Capper Al]

If you do not skip races with no value, you will lose. You may have a 10% edge, but not over all races.

IMHO.

I don't know what my edge is. I only know that I have one. Picked 10% for conversation. Just starting to work on record keeping.

[Capper Al]

Agree, there is value to be had in all races, however, one's ability to find that value, in every race, probably ain't gonna happen. Maybe Al has found the goose that laid the golden egg?

No, I haven't found the goose that lays the golden eggs.

[maddog42]

Note that I said I bet every race I handicap. I do not handicap every race.

Also, I recognize that I could pass races and perhaps it would increase my ROI. In fact, I may well eventually do that, but not until I have enough races to determine that passing those races would result in more long-term profit without a significant loss of consistency.




Then you ARE passing races. My next point you just answered. To be profitable in all types of races, would be so hard, I venture it is close to impossible. Now lets get practical. You should be able to vastly improve your ROI by passing races. I happen to believe that most of the players on this board don't keep records. The exception is the database guys. And even quite a few of them don't record ALL their bets. Showing a profit on paper and bringing that money back home are two different things. I have struggled with this myself.

Thaskalos has mentioned that his mentoring has largely been unsuccessful. I am sure that the psychology of winning is just as important as the handicapping. I bet I just lost half of you with that statement. It is not a very easy thing to confront ones own nature and failings. I have done some crazy sh*t at the racetrack. I mentioned awhile back to Cj that I have been winning for the past few months and I wasn't exactly sure why. But a few things have become clear. My wagers from home have been much more
profitable than my wagers from the track. For some reason it is much easier for me to pass races from home and to maintain focus. Even that doesn't explain all of it. Years ago I would go to the track and as exercise I would
pass either all the races or only bet 1 or 2. Was It Langjhar or Pizzolla that said let the bet make you? There are a lot of good handicappers on this board and a lot of losers. Betting skill and discipline seem to be a requisite
for winning.

[Capper Al]

I look at rhetoric like this the same way I look at the rhetoric of the Republican Party. The logic appears flawless; I am just never satisfied when I see it put to actual practice.

A hardworking, hi-tech handicapper who finds a worthwhile bet in every race can easily end up wagering on 15,000 races a year. If he can maintain a 10% ROI, then his financial worries are over in short order...and he doesn't need much money to start with.

A $1,500 initial bankroll -- with a $10 wagering unit -- would be transformed into a $16,500 bankroll after only one year's play.

The second year...our hero can look forward to a profit of $165,000 -- while making bets in the $100 range. And if he should take his bets up to the $200 range during the third year...then we are talking about what the late Dick Mitchell liked to call..."Rolls Royce wages."

Here is what you must know. One, I play from 8 to 12 races every Saturday only. I do play one or two cards so I am committed to playing evrything on the cards or have to wait until next weekend. Two, don't rob the goose that does lay the golden eggs. Walk not run. It is important to keep your head.

[Capper Al]

It has been my experience that it is best to pass races that have fewer than 8 entries. When I do this, my chalk play has been profitable last year.

For example, considering only the morning line favorite and using a highly selected criterion (around 10% of races are playable):

Races with less than 8 entries: hit rate = 48%; loss= 22%
Races with more than 8 entries: hit rate = 47%; profit = 6%

Of course, even though this is about a year's worth of data, the sample size is too small to really count. However, I do think the trend is there.

Playing chalk, one has to be able to identify false favorites and pass on races. This is not my style.

[Aner]

Playing chalk, one has to be able to identify false favorites and pass on races. This is not my style.

Hi Al,

If you don't like extreme chalk, here is some data on horses that were 4:1 to 8:1 on the morning line.

Races with less than 8 entries: 19% frequency; 12% loss.
Races with 8 or more entries: 18% frequency; 19% profit

The point is small fields led to loss. Larger fields were profitable.

[Robert Fischer]

Aner that is great for a year's data.

Generally you will see the potential for ROI increase with larger fields, while the hit% will decrease.

The fact that your hit% stayed nearly the same suggests:
a- your criterion is giving you horses that aren't affected by field size,
and/or
b- your year's sample was a little more favorable than average.
I would guess it is more a than b.

another thing - with using a morning lines "odds range" rather than the sequential order of odds (ie favorite = 1, 2nd choice = 2), this will skew a comparison to favor a larger field (in a 5 horse field a 4:1 to 8:1 shot could be an outsider, where in a 12 horse field it could be 2nd or 3rd choice.).
However that would just make the small field size look worse for that specific comparison. The fact that you did so well in the larger field size for that odds range stands on it's own merit. :ThmbUp:

[turninforhome10]

One tip today for our newbie. Watch the first race at Parx. The winner was wearing a scoop blinker on his right eye. This is to A)keep the horse from lugging out (see Whirlaway) B) the horse does not like horses outside of him. His last few races he has been on the inside of horses during the running of his races. Today he get the outside and goes wire to wire and beats a 4/5 shot. You have to be able to see these things to beat the favorite.

[traynor]

That reminds me of that old Wendy's commercial: "Where's the beef?" The horse racing version of that would be, "Where's the proof?"

That PGA golf coach might not be the secret to the player's success, but I'd still rather give him a chance than the club pro at the local golf course.

How do you separate the two? You watch what they teach. Then you decide if: (A) What they say makes sense to you. (B) Do they sound like they could be right? Beyond that it is a crap shoot.


Being a hardcore skeptic (especially in regard to horse racing advice) I think the best proof is self-acquired. Specifically, if someone gives one a piece of advice (preferably free) and says, "Here, try this. It might be useful" and one can learn for himself or herself whether it is useful or not by actually applying it in the real world (as opposed to trial runs on some highly specific segment of races), that (IMHO) constitutes better "proof" than endless commentary about what happened way back when.

Again, specifically, I am referring to concepts and processes--not "posting selections" or providing specific information on some specific race (unless the provider is willing to reimburse the lost wagers that may result from following that type of "advice").

Consider it the equivalent of the "teach a man to fish" metaphor. I don't want a fish--I want someone to show me how to catch my own. As you probably well know, the true test of any teacher is his or her ability to impart a level of skill in the students that at least equals--and preferably exceeds--the level of skill of the teacher. And hopefully in less than half a lifetime.

[DeltaLover]

One tip today for our newbie. Watch the first race at Parx. The winner was wearing a scoop blinker on his right eye. This is to A)keep the horse from lugging out (see Whirlaway) B) the horse does not like horses outside of him. His last few races he has been on the inside of horses during the running of his races. Today he get the outside and goes wire to wire and beats a 4/5 shot. You have to be able to see these things to beat the favorite.

This is a great observation and causation.

Besides this, for us to have a more objective opinion we need several hundred similar observations to evaluate if indeed this factor is significant or not.

Sparse examples espcially driven by memory should not be taken seriously.

This is something absolutely doable and someone interested in this type of information (that has nothing superficial but still is not supported by equibase) should build a database with equipment changes and make his evaluatios based in them.

I am guessing that these type of changes will not reveal any significant edge but you never know...

[turninforhome10]

Or you could just watch the post parade?

[thaskalos]

One tip today for our newbie. Watch the first race at Parx. The winner was wearing a scoop blinker on his right eye. This is to A)keep the horse from lugging out (see Whirlaway) B) the horse does not like horses outside of him. His last few races he has been on the inside of horses during the running of his races. Today he get the outside and goes wire to wire and beats a 4/5 shot. You have to be able to see these things to beat the favorite.
Of course, these observations are a lot easier to make after the race is over...

[bob60566]

This is a great observation and causation.

Besides this, for us to have a more objective opinion we need several hundred similar observations to evaluate if indeed this factor is significant or not.

Sparse examples espcially driven by memory should not be taken seriously.

This is something absolutely doable and someone interested in this type of information (that has nothing superficial but still is not supported by equibase) should build a database with equipment changes and make his evaluatios based in them.

I am guessing that these type of changes will not reveal any significant edge but you never know...
Delta
Would you tell the newbie to build his Database using Equbase to get a significant edge?.

[DeltaLover]

Delta
Would you tell the newbie to build his Database using Equbase to get a significant edge?.


I do not know about getting a significant edge but for sure I would advice him to start building a db from day 1.

Why not?

I think the advantages greatly outperform the disadvantages.

If your question is about equibase specifically, I would rather use Bris as my provider, but we all know what is the ultimate source of the horse racing data....

[turninforhome10]

I can see I can no longer help here. I will just sit back an enjoy the conversation. Sorry for ruffling any feathers. I should appreciate the help.
If have gotten through to at least one younger player out there, then I have achieved my goal. I need to get back to work.

[Magister Ludi]

Hi Al,

If you don't like extreme chalk, here is some data on horses that were 4:1 to 8:1 on the morning line.

Races with less than 8 entries: 19% frequency; 12% loss.
Races with 8 or more entries: 18% frequency; 19% profit

The point is small fields led to loss. Larger fields were profitable.

Mr. Aner,

Small fields are not across-the-board inherently unprofitable. A 6:1 horse in a 4-horse field has an average ROI of -.26. A 6:1 horse in a 14-horse field has an average ROI of -.14. First favorites in a 4-horse field average -.10 ROI and those in 14-horse fields average -.14 ROI. That is because of the entropy of the race as dictated by field size. Larger fields exhibit more entropy, smaller fields less.

In a 4-horse race, the average win probability of the first favorite is .521 and the last favorite is .063. In a 14-horse race, the average win probability of the first favorite is .232 and the last favorite is .005. As you can see, in the 4-horse race, the average total probability range is .521-.063=.458. In the 14-horse race, it is .232-.005=.227. That is why shorter fields are more predictable and why longer fields are more chaotic.

[thaskalos]

These threads are intended to promote dialogs. A little feather ruffling is expected...IMO.

[Greyfox]

I can see I can no longer help here. I will just sit back an enjoy the conversation. Sorry for ruffling any feathers. I should appreciate the help.

I can understand why you feel that way considering the comments after the idea that you posted.

Parx Race 1 featured 3 year old maidens.
Penalty Promise' ? was lightly raced.
Young horses can run, but they have to learn to race.
Also, many young horses tend to veer outwards from the gate from an outside post.
The trainer foresaw that possibllity and wanted to give every edge possible to his horse, whether he could win or not.
Smart move on his part, particularly for a horse that had been lugging out, although the comment line makes no mention of that.
Some paddock and post parade watchers would pick that blinker move up before the race.
I appreciated your post turninforhome. That type of equipment change will never be easy to record in a data base. In this instance, it gave an edge to help that 3 year old perform his best, whether he won or not.

[bob60566]

I do not know about getting a significant edge but for sure I would advice him to start building a db from day 1.

Why not?

I think the advantages greatly outperform the disadvantages.

If your question is about equibase specifically, I would rather use Bris as my provider, but we all know what is the ultimate source of the horse racing data....
So we should tell the Newbie that the ultimate source controls a monoply on how the data is delivered??

[DeltaLover]

sure

[dkithore]

It has been my experience that it is best to pass races that have fewer than 8 entries. When I do this, my chalk play has been profitable last year.

For example, considering only the morning line favorite and using a highly selected criterion (around 10% of races are playable):

Races with less than 8 entries: hit rate = 48%; loss= 22%
Races with more than 8 entries: hit rate = 47%; profit = 6%

Of course, even though this is about a year's worth of data, the sample size is too small to really count. However, I do think the trend is there.
Thank you for sharing.

[castaway01]

How about a 4-5 shot that runs out of the exacta and being able to capitalize on a horse that was eased and wins at 9-1 keying a 262 exacta

Parx Racing - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $20.20 $11.00 $4.40
6 . $14.40 $4.80
7 . . $2.10
Results: 01 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 2/6 $242.80
$2.00 Trifecta 2/6/7 $754.40

While I played the race modestly it is still a profit
Status Track R# Wager Runner(s) Conditions Bet Amt Return
COMPLETED: 9c66d-cf02f PRX #1 $20 PS 2 none $ 40.00 $150.40 + $ 110.40

Castaway, who should I call to book my wagers? And just think you could have already been on your way home to watch football.
For all those wondering if I am a crazy nut, I welcome you to watch the replay of the race. That is what a right ankle problem looks like.

I want to say one thing. In these posts, I don't like the "you have to do just this to win or else you're hopeless". That's what you said, that's why I ripped you. I don't think your way is what to teach a newbie to make money. Which is what the thread is about.

However, the separate question of whether you personally can do it and are great at it, I never said you personally couldn't. If you know horses that well, more power to you. I don't think you could teach me in a million years to pick out winners that way, but if you're making money, then go for it brother.

[turninforhome10]

I want to say one thing. In these posts, I don't like the "you have to do just this to win or else you're hopeless". That's what you said, that's why I ripped you. I don't think your way is what to teach a newbie to make money. Which is what the thread is about.

However, the separate question of whether you personally can do it and are great at it, I never said you personally couldn't. If you know horses that well, more power to you. I don't think you could teach me in a million years to pick out winners that way, but if you're making money, then go for it brother.
Thanks PA or whoever you really are.

[Tom]

I appreciated your post turninforhome. That type of equipment change will never be easy to record in a data base. In this instance, it gave an edge to help that 3 year old perform his best, whether he won or not.

I think it's called handicapping.

[castaway01]

Thanks PA or whoever you really are.

Sigh...this is what I get for trying to be "nice" and courteous. Lesson learned.

Trust me, I'm not PA. He's smart enough to run the best horse racing site on the Internet. I'm dumb enough to try to be friendly to you.

[castaway01]

While mentoring, how would you divide the winnings?

Mentor gets 100 percent, mentee gets money to buy a hot dog. Maybe a coffee.

[rastajenk]

But no beer. No, no, no...

[raybo]

Mentor gets 100 percent, mentee gets money to buy a hot dog. Maybe a coffee.

Who mentioned monetary payment for mentoring? If I were going to get paid, real money, for mentoring, then my criteria for taking on a student could be far less severe, probably. One would have to be very discriminating regarding who they chose as a mentor, in such a case. Just as there are authors who sell their wares containing very little substance, there would also be mentors doing the same thing. Buyer beware.

[Dave Schwartz]

Who mentioned monetary payment for mentoring? If I were going to get paid, real money, for mentoring, then my criteria for taking on a student could be far less severe, probably. One would have to be very discriminating regarding who they chose as a mentor, in such a case. Just as there are authors who sell their wares containing very little substance, there would also be mentors doing the same thing. Buyer beware.

Mine would be MORE severe because if the client fails it will be considered MY fault, despite the fact that the client couldn't win if I walked him to the window.

[TurfRuler]

Who mentioned monetary payment for mentoring? If I were going to get paid, real money, for mentoring, then my criteria for taking on a student could be far less severe, probably. One would have to be very discriminating regarding who they chose as a mentor, in such a case. Just as there are authors who sell their wares containing very little substance, there would also be mentors doing the same thing. Buyer beware.

I did not mean divide money as services rendered. I am trying to find out if you are the mentor and teaching your mentee how to make selections in all types of bets, then the money that you and the mentee bets on a race (say a pick four) then how would you divide the winnings if it were a signer?

[pktruckdriver]

I had something to say, but mentoring really needs to be from 1 true Mentor, who has thru the yearss found a system that has worked for him , is this not taken for granted ?

I know that with horse racing , there is way too many ways to win and way too many wagers to play.

Win wager Mentors

Superfecta Mentors

Pick3/4 Mentors

Wouldn't a Mentoree, such as me, must be willing to learn the way the Mentor plays, so that his true inside desire can be sated and be willing to not continue lookinng for exotic pay offs when being taught only WIn wagering.

Why, because this has happened personally to me, efforts to teach me Win wagering handicapping, and I am or was unhappy with the time consuming way it took to win money. Or so I thought, yes thought, as time has passed I realized my errors, yet still deep inside I always have the desire to hit signer's playing the exotic's, but who deosn't?

A mentor does not need money to mentor, he needs the desire to help someone he see's that has what he thinks will make it doing what he does.

What would that be? Well each person it would be different , for some personality, others record keeping skills, others great money management skills, and even others nothing, just a simple thing like being a friend or family member.

Sometimes Mentor's are tired of keeping a winning system to themselves and want to pas it on to someone who would use it , Mentoring, and pass it on appropriately when it is time for him/her to mentor someone.

Mentoring is in all walks of life, but for Horse racing there are so many variable involved, not all can grasp them, another trust me on this.

More later

[RichieP]

A bright, financially responsible beginner comes to you and asks you to play a major role in his development as a horseplayer...and he will not be dissuaded by your advice that this game might no longer be worth getting serious about. He sees you as a winning player, and asks you to be a mentor of sorts to him.

He is looking for something a little more substantial than book recommendations and trite advice -- like "play on paper until you prove you can win"...or "stick to win bets, and leave the exotics for later on".

He wants you to take him by the hand, and guide him through the early, highly impressionable stage of a horseplayer's education.

What do you tell him?

"Thask"
I.M.H.O with you as the mentor the much more important question is the one you ask of YOURSELF:
What about this person is special enough to make me consider sacrificing my time,energy,personal space and knowledge to help him or her. Simple as that man.

In 2006 I was Blessed to be mentored both in racing and more importantly in life by one of the most legendary figures in racing in the last 30 years. He gave me 2 years of nightly sessions with him until he passed away. He took nothing from me monetarily and the ONLY thing he asked of me was focused quiet time when we spoke nightly.

Why did he help me? Well first because I asked him but as he told me later on he had "interviewed" me on the phone twice for several hours before committing to speak with me.

He said there was a "connection" he felt with me and knew I spoke the truth. He relied heavily on intuition which seems so out of fashion in today's world of high speed computers, databases etc.

If you have found that special someone you connect with then they will be very lucky as I read your posts and know you are the real day and an honorable man to boot.

The very best vibes to you and your family :ThmbUp:
Richie

[therussmeister]

I did not mean divide money as services rendered. I am trying to find out if you are the mentor and teaching your mentee how to make selections in all types of bets, then the money that you and the mentee bets on a race (say a pick four) then how would you divide the winnings if it were a signer?
I would never comingle wagers with someone I mentored. We would talk about each race, but when it came time to bet we would each go our own way. He bets his ticket and I bet mine, even though we might often have our bets structured the same, the only difference being bets sizes due to different bankrolls.

I wouldn't even tell him precisely how to bet each race, but rather discuss different options and the various strengths and weaknesses of each option and let him decide based on his tolerance for risk and other such factors.

But it's a moot point since I wouldn't mentor anyone, convinced I would suck at it.

[TurfRuler]

therussmeister

Thank you for an answer I was looking for.

[MightBeSosa]

The stock and commodities market is riddled and infested with mentors of all shapes and sizes. Hundreds, if not more. Most are next to worthless. I guess if you knew nothing, you might benefit some from the basics.

Racing has few, though the Sartin crew and others like it might qualify.

James Selvidge many years ago was into that as well.

[Capper Al]

"Thask"
I.M.H.O with you as the mentor the much more important question is the one you ask of YOURSELF:
What about this person is special enough to make me consider sacrificing my time,energy,personal space and knowledge to help him or her. Simple as that man.

In 2006 I was Blessed to be mentored both in racing and more importantly in life by one of the most legendary figures in racing in the last 30 years. He gave me 2 years of nightly sessions with him until he passed away. He took nothing from me monetarily and the ONLY thing he asked of me was focused quiet time when we spoke nightly.

Why did he help me? Well first because I asked him but as he told me later on he had "interviewed" me on the phone twice for several hours before committing to speak with me.

He said there was a "connection" he felt with me and knew I spoke the truth. He relied heavily on intuition which seems so out of fashion in today's world of high speed computers, databases etc.

If you have found that special someone you connect with then they will be very lucky as I read your posts and know you are the real day and an honorable man to boot.

The very best vibes to you and your family :ThmbUp:
Richie

Good story, and I agree that the human connection has to be there. Also what came to mind when you quoted Thaskalot was one needs the same type of player as a mentor. For instance, a paper and pencil mentor wouldn't work (in general) with a software capper.

[thaskalos]

"Thask"
I.M.H.O with you as the mentor the much more important question is the one you ask of YOURSELF:
What about this person is special enough to make me consider sacrificing my time,energy,personal space and knowledge to help him or her. Simple as that man.

In 2006 I was Blessed to be mentored both in racing and more importantly in life by one of the most legendary figures in racing in the last 30 years. He gave me 2 years of nightly sessions with him until he passed away. He took nothing from me monetarily and the ONLY thing he asked of me was focused quiet time when we spoke nightly.

Why did he help me? Well first because I asked him but as he told me later on he had "interviewed" me on the phone twice for several hours before committing to speak with me.

He said there was a "connection" he felt with me and knew I spoke the truth. He relied heavily on intuition which seems so out of fashion in today's world of high speed computers, databases etc.

If you have found that special someone you connect with then they will be very lucky as I read your posts and know you are the real day and an honorable man to boot.

The very best vibes to you and your family :ThmbUp:
Richie

Thank you Richie...and my best wishes go out to you and your family as well.

Like you, I too had a mentor (of sorts)...who I give credit to for my advancement in the game. He didn't sit me down daily and teach me many things...but he showed me, BY EXAMPLE, how a serious, mature player handles himself in the chaotic environment of the racetrack.

I wasn't sure if beating this game consistently was even possible until I met him...and I gave little thought to the "inner" aspect of serious gambling. He didn't tell me everything, but he pointed out to me the way to the really important things -- mainly in player psychology...and saved me much time, effort, and pain, by doing so.

It's been years now...and I remain grateful.

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

[QUOTE=DeltaLover]I am under the impression that learning from mistakes will not take someone very far while trying to master any domain including science, craft, art or anything else.

that sums it up ace..your impression is wrong.

[traynor]

[QUOTE=DeltaLover]I am under the impression that learning from mistakes will not take someone very far while trying to master any domain including science, craft, art or anything else.

that sums it up ace..your impression is wrong.

The best approach to learning is often that formalized as a process called "sensemaking." Do something. If it works, do it again, always looking for ways to make it work better. If it doesn't work, go back to the "do something" stage and try again. "Gamblers" may fail to grasp the motivation, but it is quite clear, and very, very strong. I HATE to lose! I would walk away and never look at another horse race in my lifetime if it were not profitable.

Learning from one's mistakes is the only rational option. The alternative--as a number have pointed out--is that "insanity" thing of doing the same old same old while expecting different outcomes. In NLP terms, "If what you are doing isn't working, change it."

[traynor]

The stock and commodities market is riddled and infested with mentors of all shapes and sizes. Hundreds, if not more. Most are next to worthless. I guess if you knew nothing, you might benefit some from the basics.

Racing has few, though the Sartin crew and others like it might qualify.

James Selvidge many years ago was into that as well.

Selvidge had a great idea when he tried to set up the network of "observers" to note specific, graded details of horse behavior and appearance. He developed a neat system that is similar to the "coding" methods used to parse speech communication (among other things). A shame that so many of the horse "players" lost interest when they discovered it would take work, rather than simply doing what they had always done (while losing).

BTW, the 2nd best video tutorial (IMO) on observational handicapping of horse appearance and behavior was made by Selvidge's wife--Trillis Parker.

[castaway01]

Who mentioned monetary payment for mentoring? If I were going to get paid, real money, for mentoring, then my criteria for taking on a student could be far less severe, probably. One would have to be very discriminating regarding who they chose as a mentor, in such a case. Just as there are authors who sell their wares containing very little substance, there would also be mentors doing the same thing. Buyer beware.

Just to clarify, it wasn't flat payment, it was how winnings would be divided. Sort of like a tuition, or at least that's how I read what we were talking about.

[traynor]

Just to clarify, it wasn't flat payment, it was how winnings would be divided. Sort of like a tuition, or at least that's how I read what we were talking about.

It is always wise to consider what the underlying motives of the mentor might be. There may be factors at work that go way beyond (and way deeper) than "being helpful."

The mentoring process is highly developed in both business and academia, and filled with the same pitfalls and traps there as elsewhere.

In horse racing, it is questionable if anyone who feels the need for mentoring is basically suited to serious wagering. A willingness to learn from others is essential, but the entire process of mentoring may be unsuitable in an endeavor that requires such large amounts of self-sufficiency and self-reliance to be successful.

[Dave Schwartz]

In horse racing, it is questionable if anyone who feels the need for mentoring is basically suited to serious wagering. A willingness to learn from others is essential, but the entire process of mentoring may be unsuitable in an endeavor that requires such large amounts of self-sufficiency and self-reliance to be successful.

I could not disagree more.

While I certainly agree that the traits you mentioned are definite must-haves, I would suggest that those are traits that are not present from birth. It would be my opinion that those principles can be learned and, therefore, (logic would dictate) that they can be taught.

Obviously some people will be more (or less) suited to development (just as others will be more (or less) suitable for teaching).

[traynor]

I could not disagree more.

While I certainly agree that the traits you mentioned are definite must-haves, I would suggest that those are traits that are not present from birth. It would be my opinion that those principles can be learned and, therefore, (logic would dictate) that they can be taught.

Obviously some people will be more (or less) suited to development (just as others will be more (or less) suitable for teaching).

One of the most widely-accepted concepts in developmental psychology is that basic personality traits are formed much earlier than people seem to believe in general. Self-efficacy can be slightly improved with appropriate training, but the underlying behavioral patterns are more associated with locus of control than self-efficacy. That is, the internal locus of control tends to facilitate self-efficacy, while the external locus of control tends to diminish or extinguish it.

The locus of control, in turn, is formed very early. All of which is to say that I did not make a frivolous or spurious comment of subjective opinion about mentoring. The mindset that seeks mentoring tends to accept an external locus of control as "reality." Mentoring then becomes a diluted form of co-dependency, with the mentor and those mentored fulfilling needs in each other that go way beyond figuring out who is going to win the seventh race at Santa Anita.

[turninforhome10]

One of the most widely-accepted concepts in developmental psychology is that basic personality traits are formed much earlier than people seem to believe in general. Self-efficacy can be slightly improved with appropriate training, but the underlying behavioral patterns are more associated with locus of control than self-efficacy. That is, the internal locus of control tends to facilitate self-efficacy, while the external locus of control tends to diminish or extinguish it.

The locus of control, in turn, is formed very early. All of which is to say that I did not make a frivolous or spurious comment of subjective opinion about mentoring. The mindset that seeks mentoring tends to accept an external locus of control as "reality." Mentoring then becomes a diluted form of co-dependency, with the mentor and those mentored fulfilling needs in each other that go way beyond figuring out who is going to win the seventh race at Santa Anita.


As someone who wishes that the gambling bug would have never bitten.
I would point to learning to gamble at an age that confused the formation of those traits that would form a locus of control conducive to being a young gambler. Not until getting older and learning the art of "Parent Speak" did I start to turn it around. I got the idea from an old Doc Satrin workbook. The idea is on page 10-12.
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/library/Video_Seminar_1998/Sartin_Today_Wkbk_3.pdf. (Courtesy of Pace N Cap)
The hardest part for me, was that I grew up in a family that gambled every weekend. I learned poker at 7, taught the neighbor kids a game called 31 and took their money. My brother who much older was a renowned railroad pool hustler. He would get us kids to do chores and then ask if we wanted the money or play him chess double or nothing. When we got good enough to beat him, he would not plays us anymore. We all became very top chess players in High School. Point is we never learned gambling under the guidance of someone that was willing to go the whole way and we learned way to young that it was ok, IMHO. It is not just about the play, but it is about having the self respect inside. The ability to have that little voice that keeps you as the captain of your ship and not becoming the victim. That triangle that Doc talks about is what hit me like a nail in the head. Having a mentor is only as good as the mentor that you speak to yourself with. Also would love to hear Thaskalos take on if the Socratic Method would be appropriate for the dialogue between student and teacher. ;)

[baconswitchfarm]

We now have 15 pages on this topic with good debate. Can someone now tell me what possible benefit I could gain by taking on someone to mentor ? I don't see any positive for the mentor .

[raybo]

We now have 15 pages on this topic with good debate. Can someone now tell me what possible benefit I could gain by taking on someone to mentor ? I don't see any positive for the mentor .

If you are successful, as a mentor, the positive is that you helped someone else become successful.

[Dave Schwartz]

One of the most widely-accepted concepts in developmental psychology is that basic personality traits are formed much earlier than people seem to believe in general. Self-efficacy can be slightly improved with appropriate training, but the underlying behavioral patterns are more associated with locus of control than self-efficacy. That is, the internal locus of control tends to facilitate self-efficacy, while the external locus of control tends to diminish or extinguish it.

Makes perfect sense. However, so does the nature vs nurture argument. And if you buy into that, then it is all in your genes.

Listen, I get it. We are trained early on to be winners or losers. However, I would put forth the idea that most of us are developed and designed to be losers. I was one of those who was developed to be a loser. After all, since my father was a (gulp) loser, what else could I be?

I have a theory... And it begins with a story.

Our oldest son came into my life at age 15 (when Beth and I married). He was attending a Catholic high school. This was, at the time, the only private high school in Reno. (I guess it still is, but there are some "alternative schools" of the high-priced variety now.)

As the only non-public school in town, you can imagine that it drew most of the kids that came from highly-moneyed families. I assure you that my wife, Beth, as a single, working mom, would have been described as anything but "moneyed." It took every effort for her to keep Scott in school.

My point is that Scott went to school as "the poor kid," relatively speaking.

In contrast, there was another boy (let's call him Russell) who came from one of the wealthiest gaming families. One could only imagine that he was groomed for success from the time he was a young boy. Everything he did, from education to doctor visits, probably contained an element of "success expectation."

Now, I am not saying that Beth did not provide developmental training and encouragement. However, it is just not very likely that the two children were raised with the same internal hopes, expectations and beliefs.

One child was brought up in an average income home while the other was brought up with a big house, fancy cars, and servants. He was surrounded and immersed in success. From the time he was a young man, Russell was told that after he graduated from college, he would find his way in the world of business or as a professional, possibly as a doctor or lawyer. Scott (our son) was told that he would be able to go to college.

On his 16th birthday we got Scott a car, an old Bronco which he loved. Russell got a Boxster.

Okay, here comes my point...

I believe that if we plot each of us on a number line of "Success Preparation" between 0 and 1, Russell will fall close to 1.00 while Scott will be back towards the center. I do not feel that Scott, with his somewhat average upbringing, is anywhere close to 0.00. I would leave that designation for those kids who actually have highly negative childhoods... such as many children from inner-city homes that completely lack proper role models or, worse, grew up in abuse.

Now, the world is full of people who are brought up in poverty and turn out to become wildly successful. In fact, I believe it was W. Clement Stone who spoke of the profile of the "typical" super-wealthy individual of the last century as being a child brought up in abject poverty, who, by the age of 9, realized that there was a better way, a better result, existed. Most importantly, he believed that a better result was possible FOR HIM.

Conversely, there are plenty of those "silver spoon" kids who wind up dead as the result of this or that addiction. Therefore, it is certainly about more than the income strata one is brought up in. However, I believe that normally kids from higher income, two-parent families will have better preparation for success and a positive outcome in life.

I was the son of a Miami Beach waiter. Like many people in food service (even today) he made more money than the "average" American worker. Nevertheless, it was a very blue collar lifestyle. I would place myself on the 0.00-to-1.00 scale at about 0.60, just above most average kids. (Note that what I was not taught about money would fill volumes and haunt me for the first 40 or so years of my life.)

But what really made a difference in my life was that I had some important people touch me. Important to me, anyway. As a teenager, I discovered what wealth looked like when I moved to Ireland to live with my cousins. It was a "quiet" wealth, rather than an ostentatious wealth, but it was wealth nonetheless.

I saw it, I wanted it. I told myself that a better life could be had by me.

Later on, in fact, within the past 8 years, I met two individuals of wealth who changed me. Both men came into my life within 2 months of each other. Both were horse players. Both made 7-figures in their "day jobs."

Neither of these men mentored me. However, what they did was provide for me a key ingredient that was missing from my life: belief. They both believed in me. Sadly, one of them has left my life, but the other remains, an often-silent but constant beacon to the possibility of better things to come.

Belief is really the difference IMHO. I had belief in the possible from the time I was a teenager, but lacked belief in self. I went to great lengths to gather that belief. It is only relatively recently that I truly attained that.

My personal conclusion (you may feel differently) is that BELIEF IN SELF is the true difference between the 0.00's and the 1.00's. I think that the closer you get to 1.00 the more likely you are to find a person with great belief in self. In the other direction you find less.

I close with this: Those of us who manage to get anything close to the 1.00 end of the scale will ultimately be responsible for raising ourselves to the level of achievement necessary. Some of us will have a better starting push, like Scott's schoolmate, Russell, but most of us will have to find a way to make up the difference ourselves.

A mentor who understands the belief-part of it is the only mentor who will ultimately prove to be worthwhile.

Ultimately, the responsibility for our success falls to us and the mentor just becomes a tool available for our use.



Just my opinion. See it as hogwash if you wish.


Kind Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[traynor]

...
Belief is really the difference IMHO. I had belief in the possible from the time I was a teenager, but lacked belief in self. I went to great lengths to gather that belief. It is only relatively recently that I truly attained that.

My personal conclusion (you may feel differently) is that BELIEF IN SELF is the true difference between the 0.00's and the 1.00's. I think that the closer you get to 1.00 the more likely you are to find a person with great belief in self. In the other direction you find less ...


That is pretty much what I said. It is that internal locus of control (and the self-efficacy that it creates) that is the key ingredient that brings focus to one's life and actions. We call it kime.

[dkithore]

Makes perfect sense. However, so does the nature vs nurture argument. And if you buy into that, then it is all in your genes.

Listen, I get it. We are trained early on to be winners or losers. However, I would put forth the idea that most of us are developed and designed to be losers. I was one of those who was developed to be a loser. After all, since my father was a (gulp) loser, what else could I be?

I have a theory... And it begins with a story.

Our oldest son came into my life at age 15 (when Beth and I married). He was attending a Catholic high school. This was, at the time, the only private high school in Reno. (I guess it still is, but there are some "alternative schools" of the high-priced variety now.)

As the only non-public school in town, you can imagine that it drew most of the kids that came from highly-moneyed families. I assure you that my wife, Beth, as a single, working mom, would have been described as anything but "moneyed." It took every effort for her to keep Scott in school.

My point is that Scott went to school as "the poor kid," relatively speaking.

In contrast, there was another boy (let's call him Russell) who came from one of the wealthiest gaming families. One could only imagine that he was groomed for success from the time he was a young boy. Everything he did, from education to doctor visits, probably contained an element of "success expectation."

Now, I am not saying that Beth did not provide developmental training and encouragement. However, it is just not very likely that the two children were raised with the same internal hopes, expectations and beliefs.

One child was brought up in an average income home while the other was brought up with a big house, fancy cars, and servants. He was surrounded and immersed in success. From the time he was a young man, Russell was told that after he graduated from college, he would find his way in the world of business or as a professional, possibly as a doctor or lawyer. Scott (our son) was told that he would be able to go to college.

On his 16th birthday we got Scott a car, an old Bronco which he loved. Russell got a Boxster.

Okay, here comes my point...

I believe that if we plot each of us on a number line of "Success Preparation" between 0 and 1, Russell will fall close to 1.00 while Scott will be back towards the center. I do not feel that Scott, with his somewhat average upbringing, is anywhere close to 0.00. I would leave that designation for those kids who actually have highly negative childhoods... such as many children from inner-city homes that completely lack proper role models or, worse, grew up in abuse.

Now, the world is full of people who are brought up in poverty and turn out to become wildly successful. In fact, I believe it was W. Clement Stone who spoke of the profile of the "typical" super-wealthy individual of the last century as being a child brought up in abject poverty, who, by the age of 9, realized that there was a better way, a better result, existed. Most importantly, he believed that a better result was possible FOR HIM.

Conversely, there are plenty of those "silver spoon" kids who wind up dead as the result of this or that addiction. Therefore, it is certainly about more than the income strata one is brought up in. However, I believe that normally kids from higher income, two-parent families will have better preparation for success and a positive outcome in life.

I was the son of a Miami Beach waiter. Like many people in food service (even today) he made more money than the "average" American worker. Nevertheless, it was a very blue collar lifestyle. I would place myself on the 0.00-to-1.00 scale at about 0.60, just above most average kids. (Note that what I was not taught about money would fill volumes and haunt me for the first 40 or so years of my life.)

But what really made a difference in my life was that I had some important people touch me. Important to me, anyway. As a teenager, I discovered what wealth looked like when I moved to Ireland to live with my cousins. It was a "quiet" wealth, rather than an ostentatious wealth, but it was wealth nonetheless.

I saw it, I wanted it. I told myself that a better life could be had by me.

Later on, in fact, within the past 8 years, I met two individuals of wealth who changed me. Both men came into my life within 2 months of each other. Both were horse players. Both made 7-figures in their "day jobs."

Neither of these men mentored me. However, what they did was provide for me a key ingredient that was missing from my life: belief. They both believed in me. Sadly, one of them has left my life, but the other remains, an often-silent but constant beacon to the possibility of better things to come.

Belief is really the difference IMHO. I had belief in the possible from the time I was a teenager, but lacked belief in self. I went to great lengths to gather that belief. It is only relatively recently that I truly attained that.

My personal conclusion (you may feel differently) is that BELIEF IN SELF is the true difference between the 0.00's and the 1.00's. I think that the closer you get to 1.00 the more likely you are to find a person with great belief in self. In the other direction you find less.

I close with this: Those of us who manage to get anything close to the 1.00 end of the scale will ultimately be responsible for raising ourselves to the level of achievement necessary. Some of us will have a better starting push, like Scott's schoolmate, Russell, but most of us will have to find a way to make up the difference ourselves.

A mentor who understands the belief-part of it is the only mentor who will ultimately prove to be worthwhile.

Ultimately, the responsibility for our success falls to us and the mentor just becomes a tool available for our use.



Just my opinion. See it as hogwash if you wish.


Kind Regards,
Dave Schwartz
That account is quite authentic, Dave. Inspiring too.

[Greyfox]

Thanks Dave,

Your openness on this subject is admirable.:ThmbUp:

Obviously, from your posts here, you are a very intelligent man.

The fact is "Cream Rises."

You've shown that, many times.:ThmbUp:

But another fact is YOU devoted the time and effort to get wherever you are today.

To do that takes more than belief in self.

It also takes dedicated commitment to the goal you are striving for.

Greyfox

(No. I won't tell you the corollary of "cream rises." After all, I, like Overlay, do cryptic puzzles. :D )

[Magister Ludi]

(No. I won't tell you the corollary of "cream rises." After all, I, like Overlay, do cryptic puzzles. :D )

"Cream rises until it sours." The Peter Principle

(No offense meant to you, Mr. Schwartz)

[pktruckdriver]

There are three key qualities in this definition that we need to consider when selecting a mentor.

A mentor is…

1



“experienced” – Has practical knowledge gained through trial and application, and which is evident in his own life. One who is skilled, expert, wise, capable, and thoroughly conversant

with his subject matter.

2.





“trusted” – Has unquestionable integrity and honesty, and shares his expertise with the intent of benefiting others. One in whom you feel total trust and confidence.

3.




“prudent” – Has the quality of giving advice with proper restraint and caution, and does not boast or exaggerates the facts. One who tells it “as it really is.”

In summary, a true mentor is a person that can be trusted in all aspects of life. Mentors know what they are talking about from both the things they have studied and, more importantly, from applying what they have learned in their own lives. THEY WALK THE TALK! Plus—and this is very important—their motivation is pure: their sole purpose for sharing what they know is to help others become the best they can be and to fulfill their divine potential.





I think passion, and pride as well as pursuit of personal satisfaction is the reason really great people mentor others. When those traits are found in someone it is hard to ignore them , once you meet them, and see the true passion and desire , thus making the connection for life.



Mentors are found through your life's journey to where you want to be, and that normally takes you near the people that have achieved what you seek to have, bringing you together proves you are on the right track and finding the right people who have made it, instead of staying out of reach of the people who really can mentor you, and thus leaving success behind , as most know succes is achieved best if you are mentored. Ask your potential mentor, they will tell you, success is what you make it, but making yourself find the right people to be around is all part of that equation .

Where did that come from, maybe from deep inside me, a place i think I found recently, and man I wish I found it 20 yrs ago

[Greyfox]

"Cream rises until it sours." The Peter Principle

(No offense meant to you, Mr. Schwartz)

Exxcellent answer. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

But unfortunately not exactly the one that I had in mind.

(p.s. I doubt that Overlay, who is the best cryptologist on this board would get the corollary either. so I'll PM it to you. Don't pass it on.)

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi
"Cream rises until it sours." The Peter Principle

A less-than-uplifting point of view.

(No offense taken.)

[Robert Goren]

There are three key qualities in this definition that we need to consider when selecting a mentor.

A mentor is…

1



“experienced” – Has practical knowledge gained through trial and application, and which is evident in his own life. One who is skilled, expert, wise, capable, and thoroughly conversant

with his subject matter.

2.





“trusted” – Has unquestionable integrity and honesty, and shares his expertise with the intent of benefiting others. One in whom you feel total trust and confidence.

3.




“prudent” – Has the quality of giving advice with proper restraint and caution, and does not boast or exaggerates the facts. One who tells it “as it really is.”

In summary, a true mentor is a person that can be trusted in all aspects of life. Mentors know what they are talking about from both the things they have studied and, more importantly, from applying what they have learned in their own lives. THEY WALK THE TALK! Plus—and this is very important—their motivation is pure: their sole purpose for sharing what they know is to help others become the best they can be and to fulfill their divine potential.





I think passion, and pride as well as pursuit of personal satisfaction is the reason really great people mentor others. When those traits are found in someone it is hard to ignore them , once you meet them, and see the true passion and desire , thus making the connection for life.



Mentors are found through your life's journey to where you want to be, and that normally takes you near the people that have achieved what you seek to have, bringing you together proves you are on the right track and finding the right people who have made it, instead of staying out of reach of the people who really can mentor you, and thus leaving success behind , as most know succes is achieved best if you are mentored. Ask your potential mentor, they will tell you, success is what you make it, but making yourself find the right people to be around is all part of that equation .

Where did that come from, maybe from deep inside me, a place i think I found recently, and man I wish I found it 20 yrs ago













Sound like you have found yourself a cult leader. I urge you to go through de-programming immediately.

[Track Phantom]

I'd share these "commandments" I've learned over the years.....

Always do your own handicapping. Listen to others only for tidbits of information you may have missed (i.e. troubled trip, return winner, etc) but don't be taken off your opinions.
Learn WHERE to get good data before trying to understand the data. In these internet days, there is a wealth of information (much of it free). Learn how other information can help augment your handicapping. (Many times I've searched for trainer's comments about a Euro shipper and found some interesting insight not readily available).
Read Books. Lots of great information out there. Understand ideas, theories, approaches, etc. It is the only way you can truly acquire knowledge short of hard on-track lessons.
Never chase! Losing, and usually losing badly and ironically and at the most inopertune times, is woven into this game. Get used to it, control emotions and try to stay even keeled. Trust me, easier said than done.
Watch race replays. This is so important but also very time consuming. If you are serious about the game, cut down on the # of races you handicap and really dig into the ones you plan to play. Watching replays can open a treasure chest of info not into most of the publics hands.
Understand the saying "Handicap for show, Bet for dough". While handicapping is critical, betting is the differentiator. Allow for appropriate strategizing when constructing wagers. I'm guilty of 'capping a race for an hour and spending 45 seconds constructing a wager. You wouldn't believe how many times this poor approach has cost me.
Buck the public. The public loses. Period. Try to find ways to go against what the public thinks. For example, ...race is full of speed, bet the speed. Most players look for this scenario to bet closers. Doesn't work all that often.
Separate myth from reality. Always bet a grey on a rainy day would be a myth. This rider can't rate a horse would likely be another myth and strictly an opinion from a disgruntled player. This horse is bred for the off-track. Another overused and underproven piece of information. Look for things like "this was the fastest 6 furlong time of the week" (provable) over "this horse isn't bred to go a mile" (opinion).
Get more out of the game than sheer gambling. If it is strictly winning or losing, bottom-line stuff, it can be a grind on your emotions over the long haul. Poorly managed emotions can lead to poor decision making. Find other ways to get some enjoyment. For example, I do public handicapping on a few websites (my own, Del Mar, SA, etc). Sometimes I enjoy this piece of it and I don't tie it to gambling. It keeps me sane. Others may love horses, or data crunching, or just being good at something, etc.
Rehash. Keep records (or, if you're like me and bet online, ocassionally pull your betting records), and see what is working and what isn't. Don't move past a race too quickly. When you lose, take a quick glance at the winner. Sometimes you see something that you may have missed that can help you later in the card. Very often, I notice a horse wins after running up the track in a common race and, lo and behold, another runner from that same key race is running later in the card. I've identified a possible key race and it will get me to take a second look at the later runner.
Ultimately, this is a game of hypothesis. There are no right or wrong answers, even after the outcome is known. Just because your runner lost, doesn't mean you didn't have the race pegged. You can't plan for bad trips, bleeding, stiffing, traffic, etc. Build the most solidified hypothesis you can and try to construct a wagering stragegy that allows maximum return if you get the desired outcome.

[Capper Al]

The Freudians would say yearning for this mentor is our need for our father's love and approval.

[turninforhome10]

I'd share these "commandments" I've learned over the years.....

Always do your own handicapping. Listen to others only for tidbits of information you may have missed (i.e. troubled trip, return winner, etc) but don't be taken off your opinions.
Learn WHERE to get good data before trying to understand the data. In these internet days, there is a wealth of information (much of it free). Learn how other information can help augment your handicapping. (Many times I've searched for trainer's comments about a Euro shipper and found some interesting insight not readily available).
Read Books. Lots of great information out there. Understand ideas, theories, approaches, etc. It is the only way you can truly acquire knowledge short of hard on-track lessons.
Never chase! Losing, and usually losing badly and ironically and at the most inopertune times, is woven into this game. Get used to it, control emotions and try to stay even keeled. Trust me, easier said than done.
Watch race replays. This is so important but also very time consuming. If you are serious about the game, cut down on the # of races you handicap and really dig into the ones you plan to play. Watching replays can open a treasure chest of info not into most of the publics hands.
Understand the saying "Handicap for show, Bet for dough". While handicapping is critical, betting is the differentiator. Allow for appropriate strategizing when constructing wagers. I'm guilty of 'capping a race for an hour and spending 45 seconds constructing a wager. You wouldn't believe how many times this poor approach has cost me.
Buck the public. The public loses. Period. Try to find ways to go against what the public thinks. For example, ...race is full of speed, bet the speed. Most players look for this scenario to bet closers. Doesn't work all that often.
Separate myth from reality. Always bet a grey on a rainy day would be a myth. This rider can't rate a horse would likely be another myth and strictly an opinion from a disgruntled player. This horse is bred for the off-track. Another overused and underproven piece of information. Look for things like "this was the fastest 6 furlong time of the week" (provable) over "this horse isn't bred to go a mile" (opinion).
Get more out of the game than sheer gambling. If it is strictly winning or losing, bottom-line stuff, it can be a grind on your emotions over the long haul. Poorly managed emotions can lead to poor decision making. Find other ways to get some enjoyment. For example, I do public handicapping on a few websites (my own, Del Mar, SA, etc). Sometimes I enjoy this piece of it and I don't tie it to gambling. It keeps me sane. Others may love horses, or data crunching, or just being good at something, etc.
Rehash. Keep records (or, if you're like me and bet online, ocassionally pull your betting records), and see what is working and what isn't. Don't move past a race too quickly. When you lose, take a quick glance at the winner. Sometimes you see something that you may have missed that can help you later in the card. Very often, I notice a horse wins after running up the track in a common race and, lo and behold, another runner from that same key race is running later in the card. I've identified a possible key race and it will get me to take a second look at the later runner.
Ultimately, this is a game of hypothesis. There are no right or wrong answers, even after the outcome is known. Just because your runner lost, doesn't mean you didn't have the race pegged. You can't plan for bad trips, bleeding, stiffing, traffic, etc. Build the most solidified hypothesis you can and try to construct a wagering stragegy that allows maximum return if you get the desired outcome.

:ThmbUp: If someone new cannot get something useful from this thread then they really are not paying attention. This is excellent stuff.

[traynor]

The Freudians would say yearning for this mentor is our need for our father's love and approval.

There is a lot of that mixed in with the reverse. Even more interesting are the various studies done on what is called the Good Samaritan effect. In essence, with very, very few exceptions, those who proclaim their desire to "help others" are doing so for their own benefit. Remove that benefit, whether financial, "psychic," or emotional, and the desire to help evaporates. That has been demonstrated repeatedly over endless experiments conducted by social psychologists in many different countries over many years.

The New Age concepts of "Service to Others" or "Service to Self" are nonsense that do not hold up in reality. It is more a case that "Service to Others" fulfills some need in the individual providing that service. The "benefit" to others is irrelevant to the service provider--it is fulfillment of his or her needs that is the underlying motivation and determing factor.

[raybo]

Sound like you have found yourself a cult leader. I urge you to go through de-programming immediately.

Actually, he sounds like he has made a dramatic transformation, in a very short period of time. I'm shocked at his progress. Had you told me I would read such a post from him, at any time in the future, just a short time ago, I would have simply said "no way!".

I really am shocked!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I might add, that if this is the newly "mentored" man, and it's not just fleeting, I will also congratulate Dave Schwartz, and probably one of his "teams", as having done a great job of mentoring!!

[raybo]

:ThmbUp: If someone new cannot get something useful from this thread then they really are not paying attention. This is excellent stuff.

Yeah, I have to agree with you, that post just about covers it. :ThmbUp:

[traynor]

One of the most useful traits to develop for race analysis is the ability to see reality as it is, rather than as one wants it to be. Many seem unable to separate those views--their views of "reality" are strongly influenced by their internal beliefs and opinions, and the overwhelming (and often costly) desire to validate those internal beliefs and opinions.

Again, I am not just expressing "personal opinion." There is ample and abundant support for the above available to anyone willing to do a bit of thinking for themselves. I suggest that such would be of much, much greater value to a prospective bettor than most other things.

[raybo]

The Freudians would say yearning for this mentor is our need for our father's love and approval.

Typical. Some people really, really, need to take a step or 2 back, and have a good look at themselves in a mirror. They might be severely shocked at what they see.

[turninforhome10]

This is the favorite part of one of my favorite movies. Eventually it comes to this. IMHO.
z7NxEj4A1Cg

[traynor]

...
Separate myth from reality. Always bet a grey on a rainy day would be a myth. This rider can't rate a horse would likely be another myth and strictly an opinion from a disgruntled player. This horse is bred for the off-track. Another overused and underproven piece of information. Look for things like "this was the fastest 6 furlong time of the week" (provable) over "this horse isn't bred to go a mile" (opinion) ...

I would have put that first, with an admonition to consider the effect on the bank account of a self-serving bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-serving_bias

and fundamental attribution error:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error

[raybo]

There is a lot of that mixed in with the reverse. Even more interesting are the various studies done on what is called the Good Samaritan effect. In essence, with very, very few exceptions, those who proclaim their desire to "help others" are doing so for their own benefit. Remove that benefit, whether financial, "psychic," or emotional, and the desire to help evaporates. That has been demonstrated repeatedly over endless experiments conducted by social psychologists in many different countries over many years.

The New Age concepts of "Service to Others" or "Service to Self" are nonsense that do not hold up in reality. It is more a case that "Service to Others" fulfills some need in the individual providing that service. The "benefit" to others is irrelevant to the service provider--it is fulfillment of his or her needs that is the underlying motivation and determing factor.

And, what is wrong with getting some "emotional" satisfaction from helping others? Can you possibly be that unfeeling and stoic? Have you never done anything to help others simply because it might make you feel better about what you've done with your life, when you look back at it? If so, then I would suggest that you get some professional help, soon.

[Capper Al]

There is a lot of that mixed in with the reverse. Even more interesting are the various studies done on what is called the Good Samaritan effect. In essence, with very, very few exceptions, those who proclaim their desire to "help others" are doing so for their own benefit. Remove that benefit, whether financial, "psychic," or emotional, and the desire to help evaporates. That has been demonstrated repeatedly over endless experiments conducted by social psychologists in many different countries over many years.

The New Age concepts of "Service to Others" or "Service to Self" are nonsense that do not hold up in reality. It is more a case that "Service to Others" fulfills some need in the individual providing that service. The "benefit" to others is irrelevant to the service provider--it is fulfillment of his or her needs that is the underlying motivation and determing factor.

For me I find, teaching something I know always helps me undestand the topic better. There js something in having to communicate that organizes our thoughts.

[Greyfox]

Buck the public. The public loses. Period..

If you are playing horizontal exotics, you have to know when and when not to buck the public.

Some favorites must be played.

[Robert Goren]

And, what is wrong with getting some "emotional" satisfaction from helping others? Can you possibly be that unfeeling and stoic? Have you never done anything to help others simply because it might make you feel better about what you've done with your life, when you look back at it? If so, then I would suggest that you get some professional help, soon.There is nothing wrong with help others for any reason. Although, I question the wisdom of teaching anybody anything about gambling. Most people would be a lot better off if they never gambled.. And don't give me that crap about starting a business is gamble, getting married is gamble, etc because it isn't the same thing. If want help somebody and feel good about yourself, Go shovel somebody's sidewalk after a snow storm. Don't teach them to gamble.
This board is about exchanging ideas for people who already bet the ponies and most posters have been doing it for years. There is nothing wrong with that. Although I think there is a little too much encouragement for those seeking to turn it into a living from time to time. That is a tough road to hoe and not very satisfying in the long haul from what I learned by talking to a man who actually did it. Don't fool yourself into thinking you will be making money from something you love to because it is highly likely you won't be making money and secondly, even if you do, you will learn to hate it and/or yourself over time and suffer major bouts of depression. Maybe not in at first, but eventually you will. The thrill is in the chase, not in the actual doing. That is the thing about gambling. It is all about the lure of the chase to find that winning way.
Enough preaching, go get some coffee and stick your nose into the form and pick a few winners.

[traynor]

...
If want help somebody and feel good about yourself, Go shovel somebody's sidewalk after a snow storm. Don't teach them to gamble.
...

That pretty well summarizes an endless amount of research on the Good Samaritan effect. That is, the "helping others" is only considered when it provides gains or benefits to the provider--the gains and benefits to the recipient (or, as you pointed out in your posting, the possible undesirable outcomes for the recipient) are all to often ignored or are of minimal importance to the provider.

[raybo]

I didn't realize this mentoring was for the purpose of making a living at gambling. I thought it was for improvement in your game.