Carryover advantage.

[teddy]

Checked my wagers for the year and I was ahead about 6% after rebates on my pick 3,4,5 bets. I am considering only playing carryover days and deciding on the effect of the carryover on my bottom line, if I win the same percent of the time.

Would it naturally add about 15% to my bottom line?

[senortout]

pic 3 and pic 4 wagers don't carry over right? Not sure about pic 5 wagers.

I don't feel it would improve your bottom line however, considering the pic 5 may carry over and of course pic 6 wagers, which I don't believe you mentioned. Reason being that the wagering would be concentrated into fewer wagers increasing the chance of uncashed tickets on those occasions...(how do I know I'm lucky today if I don't wager?)

Another thing to consider...the free money realized by winning ticketholders on carryover days is mostly an illusion in my opinion...how many times does the carryover day end up having a ton of winning tickets? Many of the participants are chasing money they lost in the pools that carried over as well. In that regard of course, you do get an edge by staying out of non-carryover pools. BUT ONLY IF YOU CASH.

[teddy]

Yes just pick 5 carryovers sorry.. lol I rarely play pick 6 unless its the .10 cent one that I see seems to pay very well even if you are not the one person holding a single ticket.

[Robert Goren]

It depends on your tax situation.

[teddy]

On the 28the carryover was $3500 at TUP and the 29th there was $6652 wagered on the pick 5. Soon I read that to mean that it was a positive expectation bet.

[Ray2000]

I'm guessing the CO is subject to another take out when added to the pool just like all other wagers, either way, it would increase the final pool without increasing the number of winning tickets. All payoffs would increase by the final ratio of CO to Total Pool


5000 CO in a typical 50000 pool increases all payouts by 10%

Expectation could remain negative

[Ray2000]

Interesting Example

Balmoral last night Pic5 CO $5,325 from Saturday's $7,889 pool

Sunday's pool $50,786 ...Take out 14.5% = $43,412 to go to winners

1 50¢ ticket :faint:
$0.50 PICK 5 ( 3/1/5,6,8/4/4) Paid $43,412.35

[Some_One]

Remember that your skill level influences the effective takeout rake. The worst handicappers in the world have a 100% takeout rate (in theory), the pool takeout rate is just the average of all handicappers.

[teddy]

I noticed they are crazy about a carryover at harness tracks.. balmoral for sure. 5k at Turf Paradise is not going to draw 50k..

[senortout]

who has a .10 pic 6 available? which tracks?

[Saratoga_Mike]

who has a .10 pic 6 available? which tracks?

GP, but it's a jackpot pick six. I don't think there are any tracks with traditional Pick 6s with dime mins - it would defeat the concept.

[Some_One]

GP, but it's a jackpot pick six. I don't think there are any tracks with traditional Pick 6s with dime mins - it would defeat the concept.

I believe HK's Triple Trio is a ~10c (1 HKD) min, of course many more combos then a P6 (2.3 Million combos with 3 13 horse fields vs 530K combos in the P6 assuming a 9 horse average per race)

[Si2see]

Teddy, sorry to go off subject here but please clean your pm box out and then pm me in regards to pace advantage contest. Thanks, Jason