form cycler in the uk

[wantingabite]

new to this forum so i hope this is posted onto the correct forum.

folks, im an englishman whos just started to learn/read about form cycles from the following two books:- beyer speed figures uncovered and the odds must be crazy. I also have another in the post as i write called thoroughbred cycles.
Can you advise any other book in my quest to learn the subject or offer any advice about form cycles.
Please bear in mind as im living in the uk we dont have sectional times, yet !!!!!!!!! LOL

could anyone offer any advise on the following speed ratings and what usually happens once an horse has levelled its speed ratings, the horse in question is a sprinter called SWISS CROSS

73 61 70 78 75 69 69

the 73 was gained after two improving figures which i dont have but our racing paper showed them improving at the time.
(( the ratings listed are mine ))

i backed the horse when it improved its cycle to a 78 but only managed a 2nd place @ 14/1. it fitted perfectly with joe codderello's cycling horse. since then it ran down to 69 as you can see.

so whats it going to do today ? runs this afternoon!!!!!!!
as from my limited experience with form cycles it looks like an improvement is on the cards from the pair of 69's. based on me wanting to back it again (we've all been there)

also i would like advise on when an horse gains a low speed rating even when winning the race in a cycle, is it best to ignore that race or still count it as valid.

ive read all the beyer books and a few from over here and no one as shed light on this

sorry for the length of post but another query is
when ragozin is on about his condition handicapping and his "aa's" whats he on about?? i was supposing he assigns an a to an horse after a 5 week period after a new top but maybe a b after 4 week rest, a c after 3 weeks. or am i way off the mark.

thank you for any advise and would like to say your all spoilt for what you all have in american racing to name but two
running positions & sectionals.

[Helles]

Somebody 'might' have an answer for you if you provided dates, distances and surfaces for these figures.

I wouldn't necessarily expect an improvement without a layoff, but I don't have enough information to make an informed prediction.

[Some_One]

Something you can look at is the ranges of him and the others in the race, take a look at the video below, Dave talks about this a stats concept (Reg Speed sort) in it which might help you get a range of the ability that is expected the horse will run.

http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/thanksgiving-2012-improve-your-game-seminar/

[thaskalos]

new to this forum so i hope this is posted onto the correct forum.

folks, im an englishman whos just started to learn/read about form cycles from the following two books:- beyer speed figures uncovered and the odds must be crazy. I also have another in the post as i write called thoroughbred cycles.
Can you advise any other book in my quest to learn the subject or offer any advice about form cycles.
Please bear in mind as im living in the uk we dont have sectional times, yet !!!!!!!!! LOL

could anyone offer any advise on the following speed ratings and what usually happens once an horse has levelled its speed ratings, the horse in question is a sprinter called SWISS CROSS

73 61 70 78 75 69 69

the 73 was gained after two improving figures which i dont have but our racing paper showed them improving at the time.
(( the ratings listed are mine ))

i backed the horse when it improved its cycle to a 78 but only managed a 2nd place @ 14/1. it fitted perfectly with joe codderello's cycling horse. since then it ran down to 69 as you can see.

so whats it going to do today ? runs this afternoon!!!!!!!
as from my limited experience with form cycles it looks like an improvement is on the cards from the pair of 69's. based on me wanting to back it again (we've all been there)

also i would like advise on when an horse gains a low speed rating even when winning the race in a cycle, is it best to ignore that race or still count it as valid.

ive read all the beyer books and a few from over here and no one as shed light on this

sorry for the length of post but another query is
when ragozin is on about his condition handicapping and his "aa's" whats he on about?? i was supposing he assigns an a to an horse after a 5 week period after a new top but maybe a b after 4 week rest, a c after 3 weeks. or am i way off the mark.

thank you for any advise and would like to say your all spoilt for what you all have in american racing to name but two
running positions & sectionals.

You could try the book "How Will Your Horse Run Today"...by William Scott. I would have suggested the book "Blinkers Off", by Cary Fotias -- which is a very good book -- but it may not be as useful without fractional times at your disposal.

Your example horse, which is coming off back-to-back 69s, is due for an improving effort, IMO. I would say he will run about a 76.

And for whether or not you should ignore a horse's low figure in a winning race, I say YES...ignore it. Every horse is allowed a subpar race, even if it's a winning one...and his form and ability are better determined over a group of races, rather than its most recent one.

I'm sorry for not answering your other questions. I am not exactly sure of what it is you are asking.