 |
PA 2000 IE -- Kentucky Derby Analysis |
| Data for Saturday, May 6, 2000 | |
|
PA 2000 IE -- Kentucky Derby Analysis |
| Data for Saturday, May 6, 2000 | |
Kentucky Derby 2000
RAC80506.CDX DIST= 10 f CLASS=GST PROGR NUM/NAME RS Q ODDS BL1 BL2 BL3 T1 T2 T3 TT LF DSL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ( 5)APTITUDE P 2 5.2 9.38 11.48 0.00 48.7 97.6 123.8 54.02 51.61 21 ( 1X)HIGH YIELD E 8 8.9 1.76 1.02 2.02 47.2 95.5 124.2 54.65 47.02 21 (12)FUSAICHI PEG E/P7 9.6 4.73 9.22 2.28 47.8 97.1 124.3 53.50 49.84 21 ( 1)TRIPPI E/P8 11.8 0.00 5.10 3.04 46.8 96.3 124.4 53.36 48.07 28 ( 9)MORE THAN RE E/P7 16.3 3.35 7.37 4.48 47.5 96.7 124.7 53.60 48.36 21 (10)THE DEPUTY E/P5 19.3 9.92 13.52 4.76 48.8 98.0 124.8 53.69 50.53 28 ( 8)WAR CHANT E 8 19.3 10.47 16.10 4.97 48.9 98.5 124.8 53.25 51.47 28 ( 7)CAPTAIN STEV P 3 37.1 12.81 17.98 6.84 49.4 98.9 125.2 53.35 51.47 28 (11)GRAEME HALL E 8 44.5 6.29 12.61 7.63 48.1 97.8 125.4 53.10 49.11 21 ( 4)ANEES S 0 111.2 13.92 17.29 8.99 49.6 98.7 125.6 53.74 50.36 28 ( 6)HAL'S HOPE E 7 111.2 1.45 0.00 9.06 47.1 95.3 125.7 54.82 44.47 21 (13)EXCHANGE RAT E/P5 111.2 6.39 11.93 9.14 48.1 97.7 125.7 53.27 48.33 21 (14F)WHEELAWAY P 3 111.2 13.27 15.65 9.30 49.5 98.4 125.7 53.96 49.62 21 ( 1A)COMMENDABLE E/P4 148.3 2.02 7.38 10.24 47.2 96.7 125.9 53.31 46.08 14 (15F)DEPUTY WARLOS 0 148.3 21.75 21.20 10.45 51.2 99.5 125.9 54.61 51.31 21 (16F)RONTON S 0 296.6 14.66 20.57 14.54 49.7 99.4 126.7 53.19 49.50 21 ( 1C)IMPEACHMENT S 0 296.6 25.41 26.41 16.08 51.9 100.5 127.1 54.26 51.15 21
(For An Explanation Of The Rankings Used Here,
Consult The PA 2000 User's Guide)
Well, we're here, it's Kentucky Derby time!
And look at who is sitting a top my ratings. Good ol' Aptitude, the talented closer
from the barn of
Bobby Frankel. The more I look at this race, the more I'm glad Aptitude ended up on
top of my ratings.
Aptitude hasn't won since he broke his maiden back on New Year's Day, but his sire, A.P.
Indy boasts the
highest sire Average Winning Distance out of all the sire's in the race at a lofty 8.2
furlongs. He also boasts the
highest LF (final fraction) number in this field, something that is very nice to have when
going a mile and a quarter
for the first time. In addition, his turn time (TT) is fifth best in this field of
19. Those with a better turn time are either
horses likely to be on the front end (High Yield, Hal's Hope), or stone cold closers
(Deputy Warlock and
Impeachment), and we want no part of the front end, or a deep closer, when trying to win
the Derby.
What this all mean's to me is that Aptitude, with his highly competitive turn time (TT)
and best LF will
start his move going into the final turn, and motor past everyone down the stretch.
Wishful thinking? Maybe, but the
numbers more often then not tell the story, and these numbers are screaming Aptitude.
Jockey Alex Solis has hopefully
worked out all the bugs he's had riding closers in the Derby with his rides on Captain
Bodgit and Victory Gallop.
As for the rest of the field, it should be an interesting early pace scenario, with
Trippi, Hal's Hope, High Yield, Commendable,
and More Than Ready all capable of pressing or setting the early pace. I'm thinking
Trippi and Hal's Hope will battle on the
front end, as Pat Day will not let High Yield slug it out early. A horse with
absolutely no shot to be around at the end will be
Hal's Hope. High Yield is very intriguing, as he rates quite highly overall, but his
LF absolutely sucks, ranking 15 out of 19.
This can't be a good thing going 10 furlongs for the first time, so I am inclined to
completely throw out High Yield. War Chant and
Captain Steve are tied for second best LF, and horses with good LFs can not be ignored at
any cost. I happen to believe that
Captain Steve is the more dangerous of the two, being that he may be more reserved off the
early pace of the Derby. As for
the likely race favorite, Fusaichi Pegasus, he definitely has a major shot at winning.
But his middle of the road LF (8th overall) is
not a positive sign, however he does possess the second best turn time in the field, which
could get him into excellent position
when the running really starts turning for home.
So, how will I bet this race? Since I don't like High Yield at all, even though he
is my second choice overall, I think I am going
to hinge everything on Aptitude running the race of his life. Fusaichi Pegasus isn't
going to be worth a bet, I have no confidence
at all in High Yield or Trippi to get the distance, and my opinion of More Than Ready's
chances aren't much better. Therefore,
I will bet Aptitude to win at anything at or above 5-1, and key him on top of Fusaichi
Pegasus, More Than Ready, The Deputy,
War Chant, Captain Steve, and perhaps Anees (sentimental reasons) in the exotics.
Track Bias Comments: It is apparent from my track bias
analysis of the route races run at Churchill over the past two days, that
we are looking for a horse with a competitive Final Time (T3) rating, as well as a top
three ranking in EP (T2 or BL2). The only
horse that really fits this profile is High Yield and Trippi, two horses I detest.
High Yield is ranked 2nd in Final Time, and 2nd in
Early Pace. Trippi is ranked 4th in Final Time, and 3rd in Early Pace. The top
ranked Early Pace horse is Hal's Hope, who is
ranked 11th in Final Time, and thus a throwout. Since I don't really perceive any
sort of heavy bias at Churchill, I'm going to hope
that Aptitude's ranking of 7th in the EP category won't be that much of a detriment to his
chances.
Good Luck!